Snow Watch: East Mids, Lincs And S & E Yorkshire

[gobbyash]

I would be interested to know if HurricaneAndrew is still as confident as he was earlier today for snow for East Yorkshire?

gobby :unsure:

[galba]

Just watched the forecast on News24 and the forecaster had a big blob of white stuff hanging around over S. Yorks for just about all day, perhaps easing back south eastwards in the late evening.

I'd be happy with 8 to 10 hours of snow except that it will keep SWMBO indoors all day :unsure:

[Derbyshire Snow]

If you look at the track of the precipitation... it looks directly north and if so should hit a large part of the midlands and possibly as far as Yorkshire

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=g...r&type=loop

[Hurricane Andrew]

I would be interested to know if HurricaneAndrew is still as confident as he was earlier today for snow for East Yorkshire?

gobby

it all depends, its either an upgrade or a big downgrade for many northern areas.. the gfs 18z has the band fragmenting and slowing down as it hits the southern parts of the midlands. If this is the case when the precipitation does arive for lincs,yorks, nottinghamshire/northampton area, it could be so light and patchy plus with + dew points and the cooler pool of 850's shunted further north, it could be very marginal indeed, going by the 18z i would say it will hit for around 10:30am to 11am. Going by the metoffice radar i would say a little earlier around 5:30 to 6:20am.

If it hits before 9am, it should be ok!

Fingers crossed

Edited February 4, 2009 by Hurricane Andrew

[Polar Low]

it all depends, its either an upgrade or a big downgrade for many northern areas.. the gfs 18z has the band fragmenting and slowing down as it hits the southern parts of the midlands. If this is the case when the precipitation does arive for lincs,yorks, nottinghamshire/northampton area, it could be so light and patchy plus with + dew points and the cooler pool of 850's shunted further north, it could be very marginal indeed, going by the 18z i would say it will hit for around 10:30am to 11am. Going by the metoffice radar i would say a little earlier around 5:30 to 6:20am.

If it hits before 9am, it should be ok!

Fingers crossed

I would personally be disregarding the 18z run Andrew, it's just too near the event to be relying on the models. Looking at the current radar and the latest MetO/BBC forecasts by 5am I would expect the band to have hit most of the Midlands. I would say it's pretty much guarenteed to have arrived by 6am at the very latest.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I would personally be disregarding the 18z run Andrew, it's just too near the event to be relying on the models. Looking at the current radar and the latest MetO/BBC forecasts by 5am I would expect the band to have hit most of the Midlands. I would say it's pretty much guarenteed to have arrived by 6am at the very latest.

Yeah i agree with you actually good post! I miss these things, it's because im use to "Model Outputs;)". I dont want to ramp it up much and get every excited but...

For anyone living in yorkshire/lincs/midlands, if the band hits before 8am your in for snow even areas around 8-10 miles off the coast.

RAMP MODEEEE

[snowmadchrisuk]

Great the radars broke , same image coming up on all websites for 11.30 .. the snows gone.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Sorry i change my mind, they wont be any precipitation again because polar low decided to fart again and blow it all away! it certainly will be rain now!

[sunny scunny]

Great the radars broke , same image coming up on all websites for 11.30 .. the snows gone.

The radars always seem to go wrong when snow is on the way

[Nabraxas]

Well, bad luck folks, it's all fizzled out... just like that

[Polar Low]

It was always going to be marginal folks and it seems the PPN has just died out quicker than expected.

Game over, at least we can all go to bed now.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hahaha very true, when things just dissapear our predictions are thrown out the window.. Good thing for me sometimes:) I forecast 320c this saturday

It was always going to be marginal folks and it seems the PPN has just died out quicker than expected.

Game over, at least we can all go to bed now.

[chrisb1357]

I think the radar on metoffice and NW went blank for the last few runs. i can see the radars again with the stuff in the south

Chris

[snowmadchrisuk]

Radar back at 11.45

http://wap.weatheronline.co.uk/wappay/pict...13fe929acab34e9

[Phull770]

Looking at the SE/Anglia reports the snow - yes snow has reached north of London

It's even snowing in central London. Rain along the south coast

Should reach Northamptonshire within the next 1 to 1 1/2 hrs

temp here in Kettering is -2.5c

Peter

[mackerel sky]

I think the signs are very positive for Northamptonshire and Leicestershire. Northamptonshire was removed from the MetO warnings this morning, but now restored. I do have winter driving fatigue because I have made it back and forth to work all days this week - partly because a collegue in Wellingborough had got rid of her car ahead of emigrating to Houston today and I've had no choice but to ferry her all week so far, irrespective. I use back roads to get to work, so it has involved major detours and a 30 minute commute has been a 90 minute commute one way. So with her gone, and the prospect of a decent snowfall overnight, I can work from home and intend to use that clause with any reasonable justification, because i'm tired out. In my back garden which faces NE and gets no sunlight this time of year nothing has really thawed... still got 3 inches in parts there. Where the sun has been at things, there is only an inch at best.

Having said all this, I had a paper round in Feb 1991 was 15, and had to do it on foot before school up in NE Yorks - bicycle was useless. To get the round done in time I started at 5am, because the round took 2 1/2 hours instead of the usual 1 hour, because we had 40 inches of level snow that lasted the whole month basically. And what did I do afterwards? Walk to school, which remained open the whole time. I think the snowfall amounts in parts of the SE have been grossly exaggerated. Here I think we have had an average amount relative to anywhere else - about 4 inches or 12 cm. I must be getting old, because its a reasonable amount relative to recent winters, but hardly exceptional. If we get a good dump tonight and over the weekend, I will be inclined to change that viewpoint. However, as most of this snow won't be falling in the southeast, notably London, I don't think it will be exceptional, irrespective, because it won't count.

[Nabraxas]

Talking of working from home - I told all my colleagues at work to take their laptops home with them... did they listen? No!

Glad I brought mine home with me

[andy_leics22]

Talking of working from home - I told all my colleagues at work to take their laptops home with them... did they listen? No!

Glad I brought mine home with me

Mate head over to the Midlands thread, thats where it's happening for us Leicester people

[mackerel sky]

Looking at the SE/Anglia reports the snow - yes snow has reached north of London

It's even snowing in central London. Rain along the south coast

Should reach Northamptonshire within the next 1 to 1 1/2 hrs

temp here in Kettering is -2.5c

Peter

It is further east that anticipated I believe, which warrents Northamptonshire being reincluded in the warnings methinks - and staying as snow whilst and IF the precipitation remains moderate. Peter - do us a favour though and change your font size - it looks like your shouting!!!

18z ensembles show for Northamptonshire a scatter between a max of -2C and -5C. The Op goes for -a mean of about -4C pretty much throughout, so good enough with moderate precipitation to keep it as snow. The ensemble mean sits around -3.5, so still good enough. If precipitation tails off, then it will be snizzle. But I doubt temperatures will rise above 2C tops towards lunchtime/early afternoon. More like 1C.

I think its all good.

[andy_leics22]

It is further east that anticipated I believe, which warrents Northamptonshire being reincluded in the warnings methinks - and staying as snow whilst and IF the precipitation remains moderate. Peter - do us a favour though and change your font size - it looks like your shouting!!!

18z ensembles show for Northamptonshire a scatter between a max of -2C and -5C. The Op goes for -a mean of about -4C pretty much throughout, so good enough with moderate precipitation to keep it as snow. The ensemble mean sits around -3.5, so still good enough. If precipitation tails off, then it will be snizzle. But I doubt temperatures will rise above 2C tops towards lunchtime/early afternoon. More like 1C.

I think its all good.

Mackeral all of the Northants, Leicester and Cov people are in the Midlands thread mate, get over there!

[Nabraxas]

Well they're in the wrong area since this bit includes East Midlands

[mackerel sky]

Mate head over to the Midlands thread, thats where it's happening for us Leicester people

I thought Leicestershire and Northamptonshire were in the East Midlands, and this thread is more specific geographically, rather than the vaguity of the Midlands/central southern England thread. So I need to head to the other thread to join the party, your saying there Andy? Eeeh, you fickle bugger.

Edited February 5, 2009 by mackerel sky

[TEITS]

Well i've just returned after taking a break (shooting americans on my xbox 360!).

Has to say im amazed at the radar. The last forecast I have seen is the BBC at 10,30 when the forecast suggested SW Midlands the main area at risk. Well correct me if im wrong because i've only seen a couple of frames but that band of precip is moving directly N!

[Polar Low]

Well i've just returned after taking a break (shooting americans on my xbox 360!).

Has to say im amazed at the radar. The last forecast I have seen is the BBC at 10,30 when the forecast suggested SW Midlands the main area at risk. Well correct me if im wrong because i've only seen a couple of frames but that band of precip is moving directly N!

Certainly is for the time being at least TEITS, looking increasingly positive for the likes of you and me.

[Andy_Calafell_Sheffield]

Well i've just returned after taking a break (shooting americans on my xbox 360!).

Has to say im amazed at the radar. The last forecast I have seen is the BBC at 10,30 when the forecast suggested SW Midlands the main area at risk. Well correct me if im wrong because i've only seen a couple of frames but that band of precip is moving directly N!

Would you say this bodes better for the very south of South Yorkshire TEITS?

Also, as it is further east, does that mean that the colder uppers are further east too, which will make it less marginal for certain places now?