Winter 08-09, How Will It Rank Against Others?

[Snowly does it]

Regardless of what happens now, winter 08-09 will be one that delivered some sustained below average temperatures and some snowfall. There will no doubt be plenty of debate over the nature and amounts of snowfall, however there is a general feeling that the winter has been more 'classical' than recent ones.

A relatively secure way of looking at the harshness of a winter is to examine the temperatures experienced - using in this instance the CET series.

If Jan is confirmed at 3.3, we have had 3.5 for Dec and 3.3 for January. I am looking at winters since the truly bitter 78-79 and how this winter may rank against them.

Listed below are various targets for Febraury (I will update if the Jan figure is adjusted) - it is intended as a guide and to provoke some thought. For me, the winter will be ranked as 'impressive' in the memory banks - but not particularly earth shattering (unless Feb is either sub 2 or a snowfest throughout)

For winter 08-09 to be the coldest thus far in the 21st Century, it needs February to come in at 5.5 or below (beating 05-06)

In the 90s, there were 3 winters colder than 05-06, to beat these, February needs to deliver as follows

to beat 96-97, it needs to be 5.2 or lower

to beat both 95-96 and 90-91, it needs to be 2.2 or lower

The 80s (the golden era of winters we tend to look back at wistfully) has 3 winters colder than these, to beat them, we need February to achieve as follows

to beat 85-86, 1.8 or lower

to beat 84-85, 1.2 or lower

to beat 81-82. 0.8 or lower

So there we go, 0.8 and this winter beats everything the 80s and 90s have to offer for cold - unlikely to happen though! I would say we are very likely to beat 05-06 and 96-97 and have a chance at getting close to 95-96/90-91 - the 80s best performers are sadly likely out of reach - but to get anywhere close would be very impressive.

In addition to this, there is a key figure for February - 3.7. If it hits this figure or lower, a whole range of statistical oddities tumble

First winter with all 3 months below 71-00 average since it came into being

First winter with all 3 months below 61-90 average since it came into being (90-91 did this but Dec 90 doesn't count as the 61-90 average didn't come into being until 1991)

First winter since 1978-1979 with all 3 winter months below 4 degrees

First season of any type to have all 3 seasons below the 71-00 average since it came into being

First season with all 3 months below the 61-90 average since Autumn 93

[The PIT]

Very poorly. Apart this one fall of Snow there hasn't been any of note what so ever. Don't think you can just look at cold to be honest.

[nick sussex]

I think this thread is a really good idea SM and it will be interesting to see where the winter ends up finally. At the moment IMO this winter stands out as a beacon of hope in a sea of mild mush that the uk has been subjected to over recent years. I'm not implying a new trend or entering any sort of GW debate but simply given the relentless mild dross thats been served up for so many years at least this has proved so far that its still possible to get something akin to what winter should be about. Down here in France in terms of cold and snow its been alot better than last year especially for more eastern and ne parts.

[Bristawl Si]

Very poorly. Apart this one fall of Snow there hasn't been any of note what so ever. Don't think you can just look at cold to be honest.

Have to agree with you.

In BTL we've had two snow events (i) Mon 5th Jan - a dusting and (ii) Mon 2nd Feb - about 2inches and it's melted.

we had more than 2 snow events in poorer winters of my youth! (Granted it's still only early Feb! ). Yes, it's been colder than for many winters (last 10 years+), but in all truth that alone does not do it for me.

Having experienced the winters in the period 78-87, and yes, BTL saw some great blizzards during some of those years, this winter, so far, is not even as good as '95 or '91 IMO.

Since early 90s we in the West have had very few snow events, some years absolutely zilch, so i guess to some this winter has been v.good.

But it's only 'good' in comparison to last 10 years+.

It's ironic that if this winter was slotted into any five year period of the last 100 years it would be regarded as virtually snowless for the West!

Even before the winters 78-87 we used to have at least 3 or 4 snow events in any winter (period 72-77 excepted).

Bit long winded, i know, but so far - promising compared to last 10 winters (still a way to go yet), but v.ordinary compared to my 47 years on the planet and 'poor' compared to last 100 years.

Edited February 4, 2009 by Bristle boy

[Norrance]

Long way to go yet I hope but so far rates well for temps. For snowfall better than 2006/7 and 2007/8, about the same as 2002 to 2006 [though best fall that year came in March], but a long way behind 2000/1. As I said before though a long way to go yet. 2001's best falls came in February.

Long way behind the early to mid nineties and even further behind late seventies to 1987.

[trickydicky]

I think, unless February turns in a storming effort, this winter will go down more for the absence of mild rather than the intensity of the cold. Also, i reckon, due to the fact that it was cold in patches in October and November this winter has already felt like a long one, if we get a March and April anything like the last few (07 aside) then it really will have been a long winter.

Its worth adding that just because you havnt seen so much snow doesnt mean it hasnt been cold. Some of the classic winter months were dominated by frost rather than constant snowfall, and somewhere always has to miss out. 

[damianslaw]

Very premature timing for such a thread I feel, all comments will be based on speculation as to what February will deliver...

Apart from the first week of december and period 27th dec- 10th jan and more lately the last 4 days, the rest of winter very non-descript fairly benign stuff indeed. Yes compared to winters since 96/97 it probably ranks as a notably wintry one.. for us in the lake district fairly average stuff really, first week of december being probably the most notable wintry spell due to the snow and early cold..

For those in the north I always say early feb is still mid winter, March often smacks a wintry punch courtesy of those lovely early arctic blasts, which incidentally we have not seen these winter yet... so I will reserve my judgement on this until the spring equinox.

[Mondy]

Its worth adding that just because you havnt seen so much snow doesnt mean it hasnt been cold. Some of the classic winter months were dominated by frost rather than constant snowfall, and somewhere always has to miss out.

Totally. Taking the CET out of the equation, perhaps someone can do a tally of temperatures up here. You'll soon realise it's been the most cold for over a decade, with pretty much daily frosts since God knows when.

It's not all based on the CET y'know!

Edited February 4, 2009 by Delta X-Ray

[The watcher]

Very good so far in regards to CET and temperature values, although snowfall has been below average I'd say....but we can't have it all. I see some people have already expressed their disgust *looks above*.....Im not, I can handle dissapointment, snow ain't the be and end all of the world, and usually every year I see some kind of cover, but none this year so far.

[summer blizzard]

I'd say that this winter does indeed deserve the coldest title in twelve years however in snowfall terms it has been very erratic, while we have not seen much snowfall, the difference to recent years, and particulaly 2006, was that the majority of the snowfall has been frontal based, not shower, it has also delivered the most since 2001, possibly even further back.

[azores92]

personally i think by modern standards, i think it has been a good winter, as we are now so used to a snow event in april that barely last an hour or to, after an atlantic dominated winter, with hefty rainfall totals and flooding. the thing is, a surface anticyclone has been unusually dominant over our weather for long periods of time this winter, compared to the bartlett or atlantic-dominated zonal weather we have become so accustomed to. for me, it has been very cold, and wintry, because of the amount of frost we have received, sometimes resembling snow. as for precipitation, well we have had two snow events so far, the first in january with 3cm and 3 days of it lying, the second on monday, with 6cm, which so far has stuck, and could be topped up tonight. so, compared to last year, a marked improvement, but i dont think this winter was anything to write home about, just far more seasonal than the even larger teapot.

[Bristawl Si]

Not arguing that it's not been colder than recent years, but in the context of my lifetime still relatively 'poor' for me, personally....i'm a snow lover.

Even the 'poor' winters (in terms of snowfall) of my youth, we would have had more than we've had this winter and that's in balmy bristol!

Winters in the UK really have changed IMO.

[damianslaw]

Not arguing that it's not been colder than recent years, but in the context of my lifetime still relatively 'poor' for me, personally....i'm a snow lover.

Even the 'poor' winters (in terms of snowfall) of my youth, we would have had more than we've had this winter and that's in balmy bristol!

Winters in the UK really have changed IMO.

We have almost the whole of Feb still to go and March has in many recent years delivered plenty of interest so plenty more time for that snow dumping so to speak! Admittedly chances of it lasting on the ground dimishes markedly as you reach early March more so in the south.

[Tom D]

In terms of my lifetime, one of the best. Deepest snow I've ever seen (discounting Feb 1991 when I was 3 months old) and the coldest temperature I've ever recorded here (-8.4c).

[sundog]

I think this winter has been a reasonably good one,but compared to many of the winters pre 88 it still comes up short imo. I would like to get more snow,the last few days with the snow turning to rain back to snow back to rain again nonsense just frustrated me more then anything else,although i know i can only speak for my location. Back in the day during cold snaps the snow would just be snow plain and simple. But hopefully this winter might be a sign of us heading back to our more traditional winters at least that iswhat id like to think anyway. I just hope next yr we arent back to sq one again.

[johnholmes]

IF only people would read the title of the thread then how the question is laid out before making negative comments.

I am old enough to have known every winter since 1945. This is without doubt, with or without snow, and the question was really how this currently compares, and may compare, temperature wise, and for that it is colder than any since 2000 and I suspect, assuming February turns out as the models suggest in the time scale T+168 or so and then the other teleconnections, that it may well go back to the early 90's, certainly 1996-97, possibly even earlier as we have to wait for the month to finish.

As someone posted in the model thread, IF ONLY some would talk of a half full glass instead of the half empty one.

I do wonder how sad some of the posters on this forum must be in real life.

end of rant - apologies.

Edited February 4, 2009 by johnholmes

[The watcher]

IF only people would read the title of the thread then how the question is laid out before making negative comments.

I am old enough to have known every winter since 1945. This is without doubt, with or without snow, and the question was really how this currently compares, and may compare, temperature wise, and for that it is colder than any since 2000 and I suspect, assuming February turns out as the models suggest in the time scale T+168 or so and then the other teleconnections, that it may well go back to the early 90's, certainly 1996-97, possibly even earlier as we have to wait for the month to finish.

As someone posted in the model thread, IF ONLY some would talk of a half full glass instead of the half empty one.

I do wonder how sad some of the posters on this forum must be in real life.

end of rant - apologies.

Exaclty John...I had to refrain myself from making a big angry post to those who seem Emo like in regards to lack of snowfall....this year has been great IMO, and no amount of childish whinging will change my point of view, but to deceive people and say this winter has been c-rap is just silly. For snow it has been an average winter overall, for cold it is slowly progressing towards a cold-very cold winter.

The glass is indeed half full and may still be filled more since we have a few weeks of winter yet.

[Bristawl Si]

IF only people would read the title of the thread then how the question is laid out before making negative comments.

I am old enough to have known every winter since 1945. This is without doubt, with or without snow, and the question was really how this currently compares, and may compare, temperature wise, and for that it is colder than any since 2000 and I suspect, assuming February turns out as the models suggest in the time scale T+168 or so and then the other teleconnections, that it may well go back to the early 90's, certainly 1996-97, possibly even earlier as we have to wait for the month to finish.

As someone posted in the model thread, IF ONLY some would talk of a half full glass instead of the half empty one.

I do wonder how sad some of the posters on this forum must be in real life.

end of rant - apologies.

Beg to differ John. The title does not refer solely to last 10 years, nor anywhere does it mention specifically to cold; it's asking for our own thoughts and that's what people have given.

It does not qualify that it requires stats either...so people are bound to give their thoughts which for some mean that 'ranking' could be in terms of snow only, cold, mild or whatever floats your boat.

[sundog]

Exaclty John...I had to refrain myself from making a big angry post to those who seem Emo like in regards to lack of snowfall....this year has been great IMO, and no amount of childish whinging will change my point of view, but to deceive people and say this winter has been c-rap is just silly. For snow it has been an average winter overall, for cold it is slowly progressing towards a cold-very cold winter.

The glass is indeed half full and may still be filled more since we have a few weeks of winter yet.

I do think this winter has been a good one and i am seeing the glass half full rather then half empty. I admit though im probably guilty of comparing every winter with those of my childhood,which is something i guess i shouldnt do tbh.

[stewfox]

IF only people would read the title of the thread then how the question is laid out before making negative comments.

I am old enough to have known every winter since 1945. This is without doubt, with or without snow, and the question was really how this currently compares, and may compare, temperature wise, and for that it is colder than any since 2000 and I suspect, assuming February turns out as the models suggest in the time scale T+168 or so and then the other teleconnections, that it may well go back to the early 90's, certainly 1996-97, possibly even earlier as we have to wait for the month to finish.

As someone posted in the model thread, IF ONLY some would talk of a half full glass instead of the half empty one.

I do wonder how sad some of the posters on this forum must be in real life.

end of rant - apologies.

Why not wait till winter is over then post then ?

Rather like discussing who won the prempership in 2008/9, it aint over yet

we had a lot of snow in April 2008 so who knows whats in store

[Snowly does it]

Totally. Taking the CET out of the equation, perhaps someone can do a tally of temperatures up here. You'll soon realise it's been the most cold for over a decade, with pretty much daily frosts since God knows when.

It's not all based on the CET y'know!

No, the CET is not the be all and end all, certainly agree with that (as I am outside the CET zone) - but its the only series I have ready access to, so it seemed a good place to start - of course debate is as ever free to sprawl from there.

Also note the comment about timing of the thread - yes, I see the point but I wanted to put up some stats for interest sake so we can track the sort of 'cold ranking' this winter may have as the likely Feb outcome becomes clear.

I suppose I feel the cold is more important than the snow levels because in raw terms if we know we can get the cold, then it is likely we can get the snow at some point. At least thats how I see it.

[Timmytour]

Beg to differ John. The title does not refer solely to last 10 years, nor anywhere does it mention specifically to cold; it's asking for our own thoughts and that's what people have given.

It does not qualify that it requires stats either...so people are bound to give their thoughts which for some mean that 'ranking' could be in terms of snow only, cold, mild or whatever floats your boat.

It's a thread inviting opinions and I can't fault it for that.

To me...even if there was nothing else for the rest of the winter and I had to discard that feeling of almost permanent hope which is to me an essential part of a good winter......

This one would still stand out. I don't rate it yet anywhere in the league of some of the 70s, 80s and early 90s, but you almost can't help but judge it by what preceded it and to that end it has restored my faith that we can have proper winters in this country.

The highlights?

I have to start with the biggest snowfall I've seen since 1991...and if only that "main" bit of snow had delivered as promise, what totals they would have been!

Heavy snow in October...possibly the heaviest I've ever seen it fall round my way...completely unexpected..and there was evidence of it the next morning for the kids to see.

The number of frosts before Christmas..... the brussel sprouts tasted particularly good this winter!

Hopefully they'll be a few more highlights to comeand then I will be putting it alongside the "minor greats" (as the lesser ofthe likes of 1947. 1963)

Edited February 4, 2009 by Timmytour

[The watcher]

I do think this winter has been a good one and i am seeing the glass half full rather then half empty. I admit though im probably guilty of comparing every winter with those of my childhood,which is something i guess i shouldnt do tbh.

Well its all good to compare, but the significance of an extremely cold winter and that of a mild and zonal one would place this winter in the good books......its easy to say this winter is not up there with the great winters in terms of snow, but it has been on the right track and not the usual winter that has come to pass of late, so comparing not only to the best, but also to the worst is better to do. :lol: I've been around since 1985 and I can definitely remember better, but I have to say this winter so far has been close to the mark in terms of cold, not snowfall...and definitely does not feel like it has been a so called "even larger teapot". It has been like an average winter good 70's/80/s winter in terms of CET etc.

[Snowly does it]

Why not wait till winter is over then post then ?

Rather like discussing who won the prempership in 2008/9, it aint over yet

On the other hand, I posted a list of 'targets' for February to watch for

If the Premiership season is over, you wouldn't post up what to watch for over the last games of the season.

[WhiteFox]

No, the CET is not the be all and end all, certainly agree with that (as I am outside the CET zone) - but its the only series I have ready access to, so it seemed a good place to start - of course debate is as ever free to sprawl from there.

Also note the comment about timing of the thread - yes, I see the point but I wanted to put up some stats for interest sake so we can track the sort of 'cold ranking' this winter may have as the likely Feb outcome becomes clear.

I suppose I feel the cold is more important than the snow levels because in raw terms if we know we can get the cold, then it is likely we can get the snow at some point. At least thats how I see it.

An interesting debate indeed! I'm actually surprised by the overall temperature figures as for me it seems that we've lacked any real depth of cold. I suppose the reason I perceive this is because the continent has been noticeably warmer than winters past, for instance 1991 when the already bitterly cold continent pumped the freezing air westwards. The reason the current cold spell disappointed for me is not the lack of snowfall, but the fairly rapid thaw; I'd like to see a few ice days and overnight minima of -8 to 10 fairly widespread in the home counties (being selfish). A good effort in terms of post 1988 winters I'd say: best this century for my memory, but nowhere near as good as 1991 which did have the very notable cold spell in February. If we can have a few days of maxima around -2oC or so in the home counties, then it comes close, but I can't see it beating 1991 overall in my opinion. Doesn't come close to the 1980s classics as you rightly point out!