Winter 08-09, How Will It Rank Against Others?

[cheeky_monkey]

the only thing i can say so far is that this winter hasnt fullfilled its potential..yes it has been relatively cold..snow amounts and snow events have been somewhat disapointing...however the trends and the synoptics have pointed to the strong possiblity that this winter could have so far been much colder and more wintry than it has..it begs the question had these trends occured twenty to thirty years ago would this winter have been much colder than we have experienced?

[reef]

Here in this location it has been very poor indeed. Using Mr Data's winter index for this winter compared to the last 5:

2003/04: 51

2004/05: 36

2005/06: 53

2006/07: 18

2007/08: 17

2008/09: 29

So exceptionally poor and only really beating the last two because of the lack of any real mild weather. So far we've had 2 days with sleet, 2 days with snow falling and a single 0.5cm cover which never lasted much more than 12 hours. The anticyclonic spell after christmas was cloudy throughout here, so we've not had many frosts either - just 11 so far, less than March 2006 on its own which had 12. Not to mention, we havent dropped lower than -2.8C. (March 2006 managed -5.4C).

What has also been alarming is that despite the winter so far being well and truely below average, it has still failed to deliver just as much as other milder ones. It begs the question can we do better, or is this the baseline? There are suggestions that what we are witnessing is pretty much the best we can expect these days. To me, thats worrying as regardless of the average temperature, we still struggle to get a prolonged cold and snowy spell. There will always be exceptions, but it seems here at least, marginal is the word of the day. Im sure Im not alone either, Ive watched with interest (if a little sadness) how North Sea coastal areas have become near snow-deserts in recent years. Here we've managed just 1 day of lying at 0900 for the last three winters, none of which were more than half a centimetre and all were gone within 12 hours.

Even if the second half of February delivers major style, it will be too little too late now. Its even more of a disappointment than if it was a mild winter, because at least then you can argue "if only it was colder?" Now, we have the cold weather, but its still a letdown.

Edited February 4, 2009 by reef

[weather eater]

If this Feb can deliver the potential of the stratospheric warming then it could still go down as a memorable one, however as of this point of time and although being head and shoulders above recent winters, its been good but not spectacular. In truth those recent winters were so poor that beating them has not been hard, last year a case in point, despite living in the High Peak area at 187metres and living within 8 miles of Buxton traditionally one of the snowiest towns in Britain I did not see any snow in the winter months, only a dribble in November and another dribble in April. All in all I would say that if we are judging by the standards of post 1990 then not bad, pre 1990 then pretty average so far with time for that to change.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think what is notable about this winter is that traditionally, if we don't get any major cold spells, there's always bits and pieces of mild around to raise the CET above the average. In December and January, the mild bits and pieces have consistently failed to do so. January was also cold despite coming out synoptically as a south-westerly month, with an anomalous preponderance of southerly winds.

However, so far it's generally been a cold dry winter with most of the precipitation occurring during mild spells. There has been some snow about at times, but probably not as much as we would "normally" expect given the temperatures- perhaps shades of 1963/64 which was a cold winter for most, but not a snowy one. The relative lack of snow can't really be explained by Icelandic cyclogenesis, high SSTs or anything like that, as we've seen a notable lack of those this winter- rather, cold weather has coincided with limited precipitation.

Still, East Anglia (esp. Norwich area) was heavily hit around 22-23 November, giving the most significant East Anglia November snow event since at least 1993 and possibly 1985, and parts of central and northern Britain had the snowiest start to December for quite some time, possibly since as far back as 1976.

February may make up for that though, as the upcoming synoptics have a "cold and wet" ring to them. As for the easterly blast, it was a strange one for coastal north-east England, but it is worth mentioning that many easterlies in the past have been very cold and snowy in the south, but surprisingly marginal in the coastal north-east. There is a website detailing winter 1962/63 and quite often during January in particular, much of southern England would be recording midday readings of -2 to -4C while Newcastle was up at 3C. This is why I regard northerlies to be more dependable than easterlies near the coast- while the reverse is true inland.

[Guest]

I can go back to the 50's and 60's and would say that it rates an average winter to date, if anything slightly warmer than some of those I recall. Very often in those days we would get periods where the max was -5c and I believe that this was coupled with much colder continental temperatures.

I have been looking at the continental temperatures this season though not recording but have gained the impression that in middle and eastern Europe the temperatures have not been excessively cold, in fact at times on the mild side with the occassional colder interlude.

This seems to occur some times where we are in a northerly of NE air stream, when Moscow and eastern Europe can be in a southerly airstream

I do not have the knowledge or the wherewithall to make an analysis of this but it would be interesting to devise a comparison tables, say of the last 100 years to check say, average eastern European weather, average middle European weather and north western European weather, to see if any pattern arise.

All I can say, anecdotally, is that the extreme low temperatures of the past, in an easterly situation, have been associated with very low temperatures on the continent.

Although we have had some easterlies this year, it just ain't come up to expectations like what it did.

However it might be a suitable subject for someone going for a " Masters"?

If anyone comes up with anything please let me know.

I think what is notable about this winter is that traditionally, if we don't get any major cold spells, there's always bits and pieces of mild around to raise the CET above the average. In December and January, the mild bits and pieces have consistently failed to do so. January was also cold despite coming out synoptically as a south-westerly month, with an anomalous preponderance of southerly winds.

However, so far it's generally been a cold dry winter with most of the precipitation occurring during mild spells. There has been some snow about at times, but probably not as much as we would "normally" expect given the temperatures- perhaps shades of 1963/64 which was a cold winter for most, but not a snowy one. The relative lack of snow can't really be explained by Icelandic cyclogenesis, high SSTs or anything like that, as we've seen a notable lack of those this winter- rather, cold weather has coincided with limited precipitation.

Still, East Anglia (esp. Norwich area) was heavily hit around 22-23 November, giving the most significant East Anglia November snow event since at least 1993 and possibly 1985, and parts of central and northern Britain had the snowiest start to December for quite some time, possibly since as far back as 1976.

February may make up for that though, as the upcoming synoptics have a "cold and wet" ring to them. As for the easterly blast, it was a strange one for coastal north-east England, but it is worth mentioning that many easterlies in the past have been very cold and snowy in the south, but surprisingly marginal in the coastal north-east. There is a website detailing winter 1962/63 and quite often during January in particular, much of southern England would be recording midday readings of -2 to -4C while Newcastle was up at 3C. This is why I regard northerlies to be more dependable than easterlies near the coast- while the reverse is true inland.

More North Sea between Newcastle and the continent. It really does have a warming effect in an easterly situation.

[stewfox]

I can go back to the 50's and 60's and would say that it rates an average winter to date, if anything slightly warmer than some of those I recall. Very often in those days we would get periods where the max was -5c and I believe that this was coupled with much colder continental temperatures.

I write this as another heavy snow storm is over head

I just hope this thread doesnt become 'well its been a mild winter' compared to the good old days.

I would like people to post 'facts' rather then the its use to be 5ft deep for 3 months of the year type stuff, it never was.

Clearly 47 and 63 stand out but me (who can remember back to the early 70s) it does have the makings of a classic

why ?

Snow in october/November/December/January and February I doubt even 63 or 47 equal that in fact with snow in march and april 2008 that 7 months and i guess we could get 9 months of snow between April 2008 and April 2009 !

Lets try and stay objective does it compare to 1740 of course not but less not go around and say its been slighter warmer then the long term average

ps CET for feb 4.3 below average at present

Edited February 5, 2009 by stewfox

[kold weather]

The idea that there has been no depth to any of the cold and the cold hasn't been very impressive is a total fallacy, the facts are we had one of the coldest starts to Jan in a very long time that beats even the first 10 days of Jan 1963 I believe and we also cannot ignore that December was very below average given it was 1.6C below average...

In terms of snowfall, thats always going to be subjective on where you live but lest us forget the SE has had a big snow spell just a few days back and there have been falls earlier in Jan as well as in October/November as well, its not exactly been a snowless winter.

So far whilst it isn't a touch on the true greats, its got to be better then anything seen since 96-97, possibly even 95-96 and I strongly expect the CET at the end of the day will agree with this statement...

[Eugene]

The idea that there has been no depth to any of the cold and the cold hasn't been very impressive is a total fallacy, the facts are we had one of the coldest starts to Jan in a very long time that beats even the first 10 days of Jan 1963 I believe and we also cannot ignore that December was very below average given it was 1.6C below average...

In terms of snowfall, thats always going to be subjective on where you live but lest us forget the SE has had a big snow spell just a few days back and there have been falls earlier in Jan as well as in October/November as well, its not exactly been a snowless winter.

So far whilst it isn't a touch on the true greats, its got to be better then anything seen since 96-97, possibly even 95-96 and I strongly expect the CET at the end of the day will agree with this statement...

Spot on kold. can't really add to that, heavy snow event for the midlands this morning.

Even i wouldn't call it a classic though as it hasn't been snowy enough apart from this week and the word classic should be reserved for winters such as winter 1946/47 and 1962/63 which are extremely rare, still an excellent winter and one of the best in over 20 years.

[Rich_Clements]

I would agree with the above the best winter for 20years but not one of the true greats.

[stewfox]

I would agree with the above the best winter for 20years but not one of the true greats.

One measurment would be how long does the snow stay around for ?

The 'even larger teapot' it is often said if it does snow it goes within 2/3 days

Well the snow where I am will last at least a week i bet and other low lying areas longer

Its not like 1984 Jan with 14c

Edited February 5, 2009 by stewfox

[SteveB]

I have lived in Weston nearly all my life. I remember the snow we had in 79, and early 80's. This is not a patch on them, but certainly better than anything I have had this decade, and possibly the 90's too.

If we get any more snow and cold before Febs out, than we could be looking on par with the 80's

[Weather-history]

Looking outside the winter months then to me this has been a long season.

How many years have had lying snow somewhere over low level England during the months of October, November, December, January and now February?

Not many, I can tell you.

Manchester Winter Index

Here is the index value for previous winters

1962-63: 501

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1975-76: 41

1976-77 141

1977-78: 90

1978-79: 262

1979-80: 66

1980-81: 90

1981-82: 149

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1984-85: 140

1985-86: 159

1986-87: 100

1987-88: 37

1988-89: 20

1989-90: 26

1990-91: 126

1991-92: 40

1992-93: 43

1993-94: 78

1994-95: 45

1995-96: 135

1996-97: 72

1997-98: 25

1998-99: 47

1999-00: 42

2000-01: 77

2001-02: 50

2002-03: 44

2003-04: 50

2004-05: 47

2005-06: 59

2006-07: 21

2007-08: 37

2008-09: 86 up to 4th of February

Edited February 5, 2009 by Mr_Data

[Mr Maunder]

It looks to me as if this will be remembered as one of the "good" winters, but not one of the greats.

To be a great winter you are talking about a 1947, 1963 or a 1979 in terms of extended cold and snow.

Given that it is only the 5th February and the synoptic prognosis is still for cold to dominate then there are many opportunities for this to move up the scale and start to be compared with, say, 1987 or 1991 - but probably no better. Mr Data's index is very good and even though we are in different parts of the country matches pretty well my perspective of previous winters.

In the end your final perspective probably has a lot to do with the amount and length of time of laying snow. For some areas that rarely get a good snowfall this year is probably already a memorable event.

For me personally we have had just the one good snowfall in Tunbridge Wells (about 4 inches) that has just been severely diminished by last nights rain. If I get another good snowfall that sticks then I will regard this as a good year. But, so far I have actually had less snow than I had in 2008 - and most of that fell in April!

So, here at least, at the moment it is more memorable for the cold than the snow, but there is plenty of time for that perpsective to change - and I do expect more!

MM

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I will reserve full judgement till the very end of the month, especially the way that weather patterns look like setting up for the rest of the month, but already this has been a fairly good winter based on long term averages and obviously within the context of many recent one's it has been excellent. It could yet end up a very good winter measured against the long term average benchmark. Some will complain about the lack of snow, so far,and there will always be places that draw a short straw whilst others benefit. So an overall assessment is needed and not an IMBY one.

There is no value comparing this winter against the best winters we have had, because they have always been the exception rather than the rule. I think there has been a tendency for a few people to do that, and devalue this winter in the process, and whilst we do indeed wait for another severe winter like a 47,63 or 79 we should remember that we live in the UK and not Canada - so making comparisons with outlier winters doesn't have any worth IMO.

MM - if I was to take an IMBY perspective then I would agree with what you say about our area. I saw about 1cm from snow early in Jan (that blink/miss it easterly) and like you I have just lost my nice snowcover today from Sunday/monday. However I feel confident we will be adding to that list before Feb is out! :lol:

Edited February 5, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[rich1]

Very happy with this winter, consistently cold and looks as though even down here we could end up with a snowy february, a hallmark of a classic winter

Nice thing also is the consistency of the cold, even the 80's winters usually had one mild month [usually December], February if it ends up cold would match those in that regard

Reminded me of 1990-1 this one, a very good winter after 2 really dire ones, sometimes happens like that, and really we were due a cold winter season after several poor springs and summers, couldnt be cool summers and mild winters forever :lol:

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

As of the 4-5 inches of snow last night, pretty well

Also given the 2 week cold snap in Dec/Jan this current cold spell that could be even more sever in the second half of Feb, this probably ranks as the most wintriest winter i have experienced.

[Rollo]

It would rank as the coldest(regarding temperatures) for some time in the North-East but as far as snow is concerned it has been very disappointing thus far-however as the snowiest time for us is still to come(normally) I would reserve judgement until mid-march.

[valiant]

Just because it's unusual, doesn't mean it's exceptional. The "negative" posters are saying it how it is.

I got off my backside on Tuesday morning and drove from the frozen north, past several hundred closed schools for a few days in Oxfordshire. I drove around the Chilterns, sightseeing.

It's the rampers who should "grow up".

[Darren Mac]

As far as snow's concerned its been a bit disappointing in Central Scotland with us having no lying snow at all before this week.

However, this winter has been very dry and cold and for that it will be remembered. However, winter is far from over as in this part of the country in recent years the largest snow events have occured between late feb and mid March.

Does anyone remember March 2006 for example, there was 1 Saturday night with severe snowfall, i believe this was caused by cold air filtering down from Scandanavia meeting a weather front coming in off the atlantic. it left over a foot of snow in places to lower levels and more at higher levels. I believe Glasgow had 8 inches whereas Inverclyde and Argyll had over a foot of snow.

For me winter ain't over till April 1st so still over 7 weeks to go.

[Stu_London]

As someone who has lived in London since Jan 1992 - this winter is easily the best for snowfall. As far as temps as concerned, I suspect it is up with the best of winters in terms of air frosts. Not withstanding the fact there are three weeks or so remaining, this winter has also been notable in that any mild period has been unsustained.

[Paul Sherman]

Winter 2008/09 Trying to be Old Skool Nice Synoptics and Not the Mild Mush, Mild always in FI & Not the other way round

A pleasant change

Paul S

[runboy]

For me I would say colder for longer here, but so far a lot less snow than previous winters. So far of course, we still have a little way to go but the snow has not affected here like other parts of the country, and from an easterly too.

[charlton north-downs]

Great thread- People always remember exceptional weather events and distort it as though in the good old days winters were always very snowy and cold. This is a myth and cold winters in my opinion were the exception rather than the norm. In the sixties, seventies and eighties there were several winters where snow was very rare . Not every winter in the eighties was a cold one but we just happened to have a run of colder than average winters for two thirds of that decade.

Purely based on my location which is over 630ft on the North Downs this winter so far would fit very nicely into the last 4 decades of my weather watching life and be near the top of every decade.

A bit of snow in November and December a couple inches lay for a week in early January . 1ft of snow early February which has lasted until today and I daresay it will be topped up tonight. Min temps over these last 3 months have gone down to -10c and there has been a few Ice days. best winter since 1996/97 and you only have to compare it with the last two winter which in my opinion where so dire that I will remember those as the worst in my lifetime. This winter isnt over yet and March can deliver great snow especially over high ground.

Best winter for at least 12 years and if i remember correctly 96/97 ended very abruptly with a very early spring.

[Typhoon John]

It would rank as the coldest(regarding temperatures) for some time in the North-East but as far as snow is concerned it has been very disappointing thus far-however as the snowiest time for us is still to come(normally) I would reserve judgement until mid-march.

I agree, unless we see a major turn around I think in years to come I'll have largely forgotten about this winter.

The only notable weather in my area has been the run of cold temperatures at the start of the year, and locally I don't even think that was too impressive.

[The PIT]

If Feb continues the same way you're certainly would be looking at some of the lesser winters in the 80's. Certainly if this Snow has complete cover until next Monday I'll be struggling to think of the last time that happened certainly not in 2000 and certainly the snow that fallen in the last few days over takes last winters and winters before in amounts fallen.

I can remember two big falls in either 96 or early 97 before moved back to Sheffield to work. Both around six inches.

It's going to be interesting to compare the snow depths and temps over past years. I guess Mr Data would be a good source for that.