Winter 08-09, How Will It Rank Against Others?

[Snowyowl9]

Last time there was lying snowfall in october here was 2000 for 1 day only.

November 2000 No days with snow falling,Just 1 day with sleet.

Last week of december was very cold aswell with 2inches of snow but it didn`t last into January.

Winter came properly for snow end of february into March 2001 which was the best month by far that year for bitter cold and deep snow.

Ice days for the last 5 years.

2004/05...0

2005/06...4

2006/07...1

2007/08...3

2008/09...7

[azores92]

Last time there was lying snowfall in october here was 2000 for 1 day only.

November 2000 No days with snow falling,Just 1 day with sleet.

Last week of december was very cold aswell with 2inches of snow but it didn`t last into January.

Winter came properly for snow end of february into March 2001 which was the best month by far that year for bitter cold and deep snow.

Ice days for the last 5 years.

2004/05...0

2005/06...4

2006/07...1

2007/08...3

2008/09...7

hi mr data. from the facts you have given, can we reckon that to mean that this winter has probably been in the top 9 coldest since 1962?

[high ground birmingham]

hi mr data. from the facts you have given, can we reckon that to mean that this winter has probably been in the top 9 coldest since 1962?

I think Mr Data is using his index to show local conditions (Manchester). We cannot generalise for the UK as a whole.

[johnholmes]

Look at the Manley CETs

First half of December: 2.2 [-3.2]

First half of January: 1.9 [-2.3]

First half of February: 1.1 [-2.9]

Combining those figures CET: 1.7 [-2.8]

So roughly about half this winter has been pretty cold.

that fits in with my data for here with over 50% of the period from 1December showing temperature 2C or more below the long term average, along with more snow and air frosts than for over 10 years

[Weather-history]

I think Mr Data is using his index to show local conditions (Manchester). We cannot generalise for the UK as a whole.

Yes thats correct but you could use for any location. It is useful in this regards because how many times have you heard in a summing up of a season that it was a poor one for this location but someone else say it wasn't that bad. You could apply it to your location, they apply it to their location then if one or the other has a higher value then you would know.

[Cheese Rice]

Far too premature I feel to be making any valid judgement on this winter as a whole, it is only the 13th Feb! - for northern parts of the country in particular I say we have only just got past the half way stage. I'll reserve judgement until we reach the spring equinox which is still 5 weeks away, recent years have seen plenty of cold and snow late feb-mid march.

Totally agree, if this winter is anything to go by we should see another cold spell in March & April

[johnholmes]

Using Mr D's data and so far just 3 winters checked

1990-1991=127.1

1999-2000=28.9

2008-2009=92.9 (as far as 13 February)

unable to do 1996-1997 as not got all the data, December missing as only started my weather stats 1 January 1997. The data for 1990-1991 is from RAF Finningley

So very likely the highest value for this area in 18/19 years.

[Snowyowl9]

I was just checking one or 2 years out for days with snowfall until the end of february,not exactly met-office days.

Last year`s was a pitiful 6 days(March and april made up for the winter,and with 1991/92 giving 5 days, Spring wasn`t nowhere as snowy to last year.

Looking at a solid recent winter for cold and snow 1993/94 gave 40 days till end of feb.

So far this winter has also given 40 days snowfall so far.

[Snowaddict]

Having spent an hour gathering the stats and doing the math, happy to report that using Mr. Data's winter index equation for my location here in southeast Ireland, the result, to February 14th 2009 is:

75.2582.

That's a very impressive index value for my location, given that Ireland is more exposed to an Atlantic influence and less exposed to a continental influence.

Let's hope it can clock up a few more marks before the winter is out.

Regards,

SA.

[Weather-history]

that fits in with my data for here with over 50% of the period from 1December showing temperature 2C or more below the long term average, along with more snow and air frosts than for over 10 years

It just struck me, John

When was the last occasion that all first halves to the winter months were sub 2.5C for the CET?

Well I think it was winter 1952-53

First half of December 1952: 1.7

First half of January 1953: 2.3

First half of February 1953: 1.6

[johnholmes]

Jan and Feb 53 were about avge for Jan and a bit above for February (RAF Finningely stats)

December 1952 ended up right on average.

[cheeky_monkey]

all i can say about this winter is not that it has been cold..but it has lacked any especailly mild weather of any duration...which for me is very unsual indeed...most winters even cold winters are usually interpersed with mild or very mild spells of weather. Hence the reason that we have had below average CETs.

we havnt had any notable spells of very cold/bitterly cold weather at all..but neither have we had any notable mild weather either..The temps have fluctuated from average to rather cold for the most part.

im no expert on past winters but i would say for lack of variation in temps in the cool range it is fairly unique..well in my lifetime anyway.

maybe this is as a cold as british winters will get in a warmer world?

[Nick L]

January CET came in at 3.0c, 0.8c below the 1961-90 average, I would call that pretty decent myself!

Cheeky Monkey I disagree. As others have pointed out, we haven't had the "dream synoptics" of days gone by, and as somebody else put it, we have had our fair share of marginal events that went the right side of marginal - something which hasn't happened the last 2 winters. If we get the dream synoptics some day, then perhaps we could see an old style winter?

I think it has proved that even with less favourable synoptics, we can still get a decent winter - and 2008/09 has been a decent winter.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I would say that this winter has been the coldest for many years, not just because we have had 3 months with a below average cet, but because we have not had any stupidly mild days compared with previous winters. For the first time since I have been reading posts on here and TWO the word 'Barlett' has very rarely being mentioned. It was always the spoiler in January and for once didn't really materialise. The amounts of snow I have seen this year are on par with previous winters although as a country I believe the snow has been more widespread and it definetly lasted longer (weeks!!) The cold spell in December will be more memorable for me due the fact that the play ground was an ice rink for well over a week. We had showers that seemed to fall ever evening and then froze. The kids loved it, who can blaim them. the caretaker i work with said that in all his years as a caretaker he has not had to salt the playgraound as much as he did during that week. What would just put the icing on the cake for me would be one last cold snap that gave us 2 inch of snow for a couple of days. Reading posts over the last few days our winter could have been far colder and snowier, but I for one are not complaining. It would have been nice, but this winter has been far better than I or others on here expected. Heres to a red hot summer and an even snowier winter 2009/10

[cheeky_monkey]

January CET came in at 3.0c, 0.8c below the 1961-90 average, I would call that pretty decent myself!

Cheeky Monkey I disagree. As others have pointed out, we haven't had the "dream synoptics" of days gone by, and as somebody else put it, we have had our fair share of marginal events that went the right side of marginal - something which hasn't happened the last 2 winters. If we get the dream synoptics some day, then perhaps we could see an old style winter?

I think it has proved that even with less favourable synoptics, we can still get a decent winter - and 2008/09 has been a decent winter.

what exactly dont you agree with??..you didnt say?

i didnt say it was a poor winter..i said for me it was an unsual winter..something i dont recalling seeing before.

[Snowyowl9]

all i can say about this winter is not that it has been cold..but it has lacked any especailly mild weather of any duration...which for me is very unsual indeed...most winters even cold winters are usually interpersed with mild or very mild spells of weather. Hence the reason that we have had below average CETs.

2005/06 was the other winter that lacked long mild spell, but thats the only one as I know off had which 1 day of 10c

This winter so far just 1 day 10.4c although it might change as these last few days go now I doubt,9.9c today.

1985/86, december 85 was very mild.

[Nick L]

what exactly dont you agree with??..you didnt say?

i didnt say it was a poor winter..i said for me it was an unsual winter..something i dont recalling seeing before.

Sorry my bad. I meant I didn't agree with your statement "maybe this is as a cold as british winters will get in a warmer world?".

[Yeti]

Mildest Hale winter ever - no real DEEP cold and snowy spell (just a lot of luck when things could have gone either way) - below average, but not massively so, and lacking at all times good height rises to the N.

A hell of a long way from the 80s IMO, but a step in the right direction.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It might well be the coldest we can realistically get in the current climatic state- averaged over the three main winter months. However, we can certainly get colder spells, and months than we've had so far this winter. For example the first 23 days of March 2006 (note March, not January or February!) returned a CET below 3C- the 1971-2000 normal for that period is nearer 6C. My opinion, based on recent stats and also some of Stratos Ferric's graphs for winter CETs, is that the "base" in the current climate is about 3C for a winter CET and 1C for an individual January or February CET.

This winter has definitely restored my faith that we can still get significant cold snowy spells in UK winters, though it doesn't change the fact that the baseline has warmed relative to the 80s, therefore making occurrences weaker, fewer and further between than was the case then.

[Nick L]

The thing about the Hale cycle though, is that surely winters would get progressively colder and progressively warmer, going with the solar cycle? This hasn't happened. 05/06 was cold, 06/07 was exceptionally mild, 07/08 was also mild, and now we have suddenly gone to cold again. It doesn't make sense IMO.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Would it not be the effect globally though Nick?

[Nick L]

Would it not be the effect globally though Nick?

I suppose. But you would have thought that temperatures would have at least loosely followed the cycle. Not wildly fluctuating and then being cold at the bottom of the cycle each time.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still a crap winter really, just not as bad as the others this milennium, (although im only going by my area), no real cold only 1 ice day, no beasterly, no cheshire gap snow of yesteryear, only marginal snow events at 100m asl, i still believe fully in the even larger teapot, synoptics have changed, just been a bit fortunate this time with the marginal snow events

the rest of february will almost certainly be snow free here, high pressure dominating to the S or SW so a fairly wet/dull end to feb

still hoping for snow in march or april but nowadays from mid feb temp tends to get to 4oC and higher all the time, so no real cold possible from now

[mcweather]

All a matter of where you happen to live I think. I think in Dorset this winter will probably come in on a par with 96-97. temp wise. As some already have noted there was no real freeze in the proper sense of the word where daytime maxs stayed below freezing for a week or more.

However a winter is far more than that and on a personal level, working outdoors as I do this winter has provided far more in the way of wintry type weather than any since the 1980's for me. A good many frosty mornings in December made for a very seasonal start. Whilst the post christmas/early January cold spell although not delivering a great deal of snow here did see me record a record low temperature of minus 10C which is not bad seeing as I live within 3 miles of the channel coast at the "massive" altitude of 45metres amsl. The feb cold spell did however deliver the snow which was the worst locally since at least December 1997 and in the north of the county quite possibly the worst since January 1987.

So for me the best winter in a very long time.

[Nick L]

I can't remember having so many frosts before, have had several ice days this winter as well. Snow in my area wasn't really anything special though. But the snow in Somerset definitely was!