Snow Watch: Midlands & C Southern England

[andy_leics22]

If we miss it andy theres always monday lol.... if only B)

LOL yes please!

[Yeti]

It's an accurate precip forecast model at such a short timeframe though, you just don't want me to get any more snow I can see you willing the snow to bugger off and miss Leicester

B)

I thought I said you were in for a pasting earlier!? lol. I just don't want you to go into a rampede and then be disappointed.

Btw I think Blizzards was looking at the precip over Wales initially. You are right it's the stuff over Brittany that's of interest. Even I'm raising an eyebrow - compare the radar with the GFS at 15.00. It's further W than even the GFS says at the moment...

[Costa Del Fal]

That area of precip is still going more North than East and every more bit North will be a great help for us...i thought this would be a No event for us but it certainly is game on again!

Edited February 5, 2009 by Blizzards

[andy_leics22]

I`m getting scared about the two huge black mushrooms heading for leicestershire !!

Andy, would you like an arrow drawing lesson ??

Hey leave off mr "I don't bother posting when the snow is falling I just post before the snow arrives" B)

We needed you in this Midlands thread but you buggered off for days, tututut

[Yeti]

LOL yes please!

No for Leicester tonight?

[Costa Del Fal]

I thought I said you were in for a pasting earlier!? lol. I just don't want you to go into a rampede and then be disappointed. B)

Btw I think Blizzards was looking at the precip over Wales initially. You are right it's the stuff over Brittany that's of interest. Even I'm raising an eyebrow - compare the radar with the GFS at 15.00. It's further W than even the GFS says at the moment...

No, i was looking at the area over the NW French Coast. If its more West thats even better aswell!

[Yeti]

No, i was looking at the area over the NW French Coast. If its more West thats even better aswell!

Yep, the further W the better. It may even track far enough N to affect the N Midlands, although it's an outside chance. The question is, will it maintain this trend, or will it pivot to avoid Leicester?

[Costa Del Fal]

Yep, the further W the better. It may even track far enough N to affect the N Midlands, although it's an outside chance. The question is, will it maintain this trend, or will it pivot to avoid Leicester?

Lol, glad you like people from this part of the world!

At this rate it looks like the Meto and BBC have got it wrong again but its a bit early to say that but currently its more West than thought and going in a much more Northerly direction than North East!

[echobase]

Hey leave off mr "I don't bother posting when the snow is falling I just post before the snow arrives"

We needed you in this Midlands thread but you buggered off for days, tututut

Sorry explained in the other thread, will go and retrieve it.....

LOL, bought the farm shop off the previous owners last week (long days and no time for the net)and have no access to the internet down there until BT sort there acts out !

We have a good covering both here (10cm) and in Oakham (18cm) however not being able to get to my new venture has caused all sorts of problems.

Monday took 1 1/2 hrs to drive 8 miles,

Tuesday took 2 attempts and today I gave up until 10am.

As for which thread... I`m reading both so I get a bigger picture.

Never realised you were missing me.

Edited February 5, 2009 by ECHOBASE1975MK6

[andy_leics22]

I thought I said you were in for a pasting earlier!? lol. I just don't want you to go into a rampede and then be disappointed.

Btw I think Blizzards was looking at the precip over Wales initially. You are right it's the stuff over Brittany that's of interest. Even I'm raising an eyebrow - compare the radar with the GFS at 15.00. It's further W than even the GFS says at the moment...

Well yes you did but I can tell you would rather me not get another 3 inches of snow again because it is hard to take sometimes i'll admit i'm the same. That time you got 12-15cm at the start of Dec and I got rain I was fuming to be honest B) Couldn't believe it, I was expecting at least a few hours of snow aswell because of the BBC ramp which said snow as far south as Oxford and it didn't even start off as snow in Leicester which is 100 miles North of Oxford!

I can't see snow anywhere further South than London until tomorrow evening when the far South and Kent might see back edge snow but it's going to rain a fair bit down there before it turns to snow late on tomorrow so i can't see it settling much. The snow is still fully intact here, temp has dropped down to 0.9 now after getting up to 1c about an hour ago. If I got more snow overnight into tomorrow morning I would be delighted but this time it's not about the temperatures it's more about how far North the PPN will go. Last night I was concerned about the temps and now i'm concerned about the position of the Precip.

If it ain't one thing it's another

[wellington boot]

That sounds awful! I'm sure the Oxford Uni prospectus had pictures of Oxford in deep snow. Although there is no doubt that Cambridge must be a lot snowier.

Btw there is a major change in the front. It's moving due W very suddenly - stalling.

I assure you, this is my third winter in Oxford and we do just fine for snow. Every winter has had a few coverings at least, and two of the three (two years ago and this year, we have had significant stuff. Two years ago it melted fast because it was frontal and warm air moved in afterwards, and we did as well as anywhere out of that event (5-6 inches). This year we had perhaps 2-4 inches last night. In the city centre obviously it's all mush and slush, but roofs and grass etc are holding it well, and up in north oxford on the side streets, cars, lawns, roofs, pavements, flowerbeds, etc. are all still enjoying a healthy coating of snow, and hopefully we'll be right in the firing line tonight and tomorrow. My main concern is depoints, but hopefully air temps will be sufficiently low.

[andy_leics22]

Sorry explained in the other thread, will go and retrieve it.....

LOL, bought the farm shop off the previous owners last week (long days and no time for the net)and have no access to the internet down there until BT sort there acts out !

We have a good covering both here (10cm) and in Oakham (18cm) however not being able to get to my new venture has caused all sorts of problems.

Monday took 1 1/2 hrs to drive 8 miles,

Tuesday took 2 attempts and today I gave up until 10am.

As for which thread... I`m reading both so I get a bigger picture.

Never realised you were missing me.

sorry mate just read it on the other thread aswell. I was getting a bit concerned because I wondered why you wasn't on here and it was hammering it down with snow lol, seemed very unusual!

[Michael Winston]

I know what Blizzards has his eye on. I have got my eye on it aswell, it's this precip that is important for the Midlands.

Yes, Andy, I too have been watching that on various European satellite sites for the past five or six hours. I think it may well move over the Midlands overnight. It's too close to call at the moment though, in my opinion.

An interesting developmnet, nevertheless.

Regards,

Mike.

[MKN]

Its northwards movement will grind to halt much like it did last night, i cant say id be able to tell how far north its going to get even upto the last minute really so to be able to say its going further north nw is wishful thinking.

[Frank Trough]

Well yes you did but I can tell you would rather me not get another 3 inches of snow again because it is hard to take sometimes i'll admit i'm the same. That time you got 12-15cm at the start of Dec and I got rain I was fuming to be honest Couldn't believe it, I was expecting at least a few hours of snow aswell because of the BBC ramp which said snow as far south as Oxford and it didn't even start off as snow in Leicester which is 100 miles North of Oxford!

I can't see snow anywhere further South than London until tomorrow evening when the far South and Kent might see back edge snow but it's going to rain a fair bit down there before it turns to snow late on tomorrow so i can't see it settling much. The snow is still fully intact here, temp has dropped down to 0.9 now after getting up to 1c about an hour ago. If I got more snow overnight into tomorrow morning I would be delighted but this time it's not about the temperatures it's more about how far North the PPN will go. Last night I was concerned about the temps and now i'm concerned about the position of the Precip.

If it ain't one thing it's another

The bulk of that ppn is a fair way west, i'll give it that (more so than last night). It is also, to my eye, moving nn/e rather than n/e? interesting. Maybe it will develop further east later on? after all, it is only 4:30pm.

[Costa Del Fal]

Yes, Andy, I too have been watching that on various European satellite sites for the past five or six hours. I think it may well move over the Midlands overnight. It's too close to call at the moment though, in my opinion.

An interesting developmnet, nevertheless.

Regards,

Mike.

Indeed it has certainly brought us back in the game. Obviously we dont want it going North forever ut for the time being this really helps us and even just some slight east movement would be great though it isnt at the moment.

Has the Meto and BBC Messed this one up too? Lol.

[tom_f123]

Will it snow at my house?

Well that next batch over NW france does seem to be quite a bit further west then first thought, so hopefully i might see something from that if it doesn't start going east.

How far north is it ment to be going i heard central southern england?

[Michael Winston]

P.S. Check these sites if you don't already have them bookmarked:-

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=g...r&type=loop

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/1.5941760

The second site is particularly useful, I find.

Regards,

Mike.

[Yeti]

Well yes you did but I can tell you would rather me not get another 3 inches of snow again because it is hard to take sometimes i'll admit i'm the same. That time you got 12-15cm at the start of Dec and I got rain I was fuming to be honest Couldn't believe it, I was expecting at least a few hours of snow aswell because of the BBC ramp which said snow as far south as Oxford and it didn't even start off as snow in Leicester which is 100 miles North of Oxford!

I can't see snow anywhere further South than London until tomorrow evening when the far South and Kent might see back edge snow but it's going to rain a fair bit down there before it turns to snow late on tomorrow so i can't see it settling much. The snow is still fully intact here, temp has dropped down to 0.9 now after getting up to 1c about an hour ago. If I got more snow overnight into tomorrow morning I would be delighted but this time it's not about the temperatures it's more about how far North the PPN will go. Last night I was concerned about the temps and now i'm concerned about the position of the Precip.

If it ain't one thing it's another

Lol, you haven't quite got over that December event yet I see. Seriously though, I do want you to see more snow - it was just a joke. You strike me as a pretty snow-starved guy so it would be great for you to see some more (so long as it's not at my expense). But I'm happy with the 24cm in my garden, so I'll let you have it this time mate, good luck!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

So why are we forecast snow for tomorrow? I thought it had got mild? Is cold air meant to return from somewhere or something? And if so how long is it going to stay this time?

[ISAAC]

Met Office update for the West Midlands:-

Headline:

Widespread ice tonight on untreated surfaces.

This Evening and Tonight:

Any patchy sleet and snow during the evening will tend to peter out during the night. Risk of further snow later tonight in Worcestershire, Warwickshire and the West Midlands. There will be a widespread frost with icy surfaces. Minimum temperature -1 °C.

Friday:

Any early snow in the southeast corner will soon clear away during the morning to leave most of the day dry. Sunnier skies will gradually encroach from the northwest. Maximum temperature 2 °C.

Updated: 1557 on Thu 5 Feb 2009

HMMM. Atleast they aknowledge the risk has increased for snow down here

[Michael Winston]

Has the Meto and BBC Messed this one up too? Lol.

It does happen, Andy. There's such a complicated and marginal battlefront at the moment that it might all come down to nowcasting tonight and early tomorrow morning.

Interesting indeed.

Regards,

Mike.

[Costa Del Fal]

Met Office update for the West Midlands:-

Headline:

Widespread ice tonight on untreated surfaces.

This Evening and Tonight:

Any patchy sleet and snow during the evening will tend to peter out during the night. Risk of further snow later tonight in Worcestershire, Warwickshire and the West Midlands. There will be a widespread frost with icy surfaces. Minimum temperature -1 °C.

Friday:

Any early snow in the southeast corner will soon clear away during the morning to leave most of the day dry. Sunnier skies will gradually encroach from the northwest. Maximum temperature 2 °C.

Updated: 1557 on Thu 5 Feb 2009

HMMM. Atleast they aknowledge the risk has increased for snow down here

Yummy!

[Michael Winston]

HMMM. At least they aknowledge the risk has increased for snow down here

True, Issac. Let's hope!

I think they're right on the money with the icy conditions tonight, though.

I'm stopping in! Let the pub come to me!!

Regards,

Mike.

[andy_leics22]

I do this kind of thing far too often really but seeing as it's yet another borderline situation for us Midlanders I am going to do it again

Here is my prediction for the band of precip overnight and tomorrow morning...

In the black area I think thats the most likely track but the other colour (I'm colour deficient/colour blind so I don't know what colour it is Someone tell me!) is where I think the band could reach aswell, but slightly less chance for that, doesen't mean it won't though.