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Gray-Wolf

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

For those following the stratospheric warming thread I've opened this to further discuss both the phenomena (so we may all understand it a little better)

and it's impacts down here at ground level.

We are in a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event (SSW) or a Mid-Winter Warming event (MWW) or even the Final Warming (FW)

Seeing as this was such a major event (unprecedented even??) I had to have a read up about it on the various sites running features.

Everywhere I look tells me that this is a 'rare' event only happening every 2 years on average yet I remembered we'd had one last winters end (ie 11months earlier).To me this made it all the more unusual

Some sites link this event to an event in the magnetosphere (see link) on Jan 21st/22nd

and the cosmic rays causing it were recorded in the depths of the American dis-used coal mine where they measure such things (the overburden shielding instruments from our own pollutions).

Do any of you have more information on the causes of such events (are they generally extra-terrestrial in thier propogation?) and ,more importantly it would seem, how we translate their impacts down to the surface.

Ta!

P.S. seeing as the sun wasn't responsible for the 'hit' on our magnetosphere some sites are blaming E.T. for both it and global warming......... :D

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Posted
  • Location: East Coast Canada
  • Location: East Coast Canada

Hi Gray-Wolf,

I was aware and had read some stuff on cosmic ray interaction in the upper atmosphere. I was not aware though there was a cyclic nature to it. Quite interesting.

As for cosmic rays they are generated in deep space and some very distant galaxies. They come into being from pulsars, neutron stars, black holes and quasars. It requires extremely large amounts of energy to produce them.

For instance when matter spins into the accretion disk of a black hole it's velocity increases. As it gets closer to the event horizon it has acquired so much energy it starts to emit x-rays and gamma rays.

Cosmic rays emit from the same sort of deal. They are highly energetic in nature being 10 GeV (10 x 10^9 eV) at the low end of energy .( eV being electron volts)

Subdivided, of this are extreme-energy cosmic rays and ultra-high-energy cosmic rays.

These can have energies in excess of 10^21 eV.

Cosmic radiation can be deflected by magnetic fields in space although the can hit the earth from any conceivable 'direction'.

The sun also emits cosmic rays but because of the solar 'make-up' they are not as energetic. They also tend to follow the 11 year solar cycle.

Description of an eV.

'This only barely scratches the surface of the subject, cosmic radiation. '

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

Stratospheric warmings usually have their origins in the troposphere. Somthing like a rossby wave breaking scross a mountain range will cuase a ripple in the tropopause. This ripple will cause a further ripple which goes up into the atmosphere and can then be reflected back down further up to disturb the stratospheric vortex.

Having said that there are investigations on going about whether the state of the ionosphere can affect where and how these ripples are reflected. Solar wind or lack of can lead to wave like patterns in the ionosphere which could in theory affect the formation of Stratospheric warmings by changing whether these waves are reflected or not.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Lorenzo Polvani is a professor who has studied the stratosphere as much as anyone. Here is a link to all of his papers.

http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/pubs.html

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P.S. seeing as the sun wasn't responsible for the 'hit' on our magnetosphere some sites are blaming E.T. for both it and global warming......... :lol:

Grey Wolf,

I am working away on this subject currently but there is an observation that in my view demonstrates the mechanism behind a Sudden Stratospheric Warming. Concurrent with the warming in the Arctic stratosphere/troposphere we have a marked cooling in the stratosphere at 25°N to 25°S. This is apparent at 30hPa at latitude 25°N to 25°S where temperature dropped from a level about the 1979-2007 mean to establish a spectacular new minimum for this or any time of the year.

How could a warming in the Arctic be related to a cooling at the equator and in the southern hemisphere? The Arctic warming is obviously associated with a marked expansion of the Arctic atmosphere. This expansion forces a compression (or piling up) of the atmosphere between 20°N latitude and Antarctica. Accordingly there is enhanced absorption of ionizing radiation in the new thickened atmosphere at low latitudes and a commensurate loss of energy to warm the lower stratosphere. The resultant strong cooling can be detected at 30hPa and as far down as 150Hpa at 10°N to 10°S. It is in the tropics that the cooling effect is most spectacular.

I don't imagine that the Arctic stratosphere could warm as much as it does without a change in the ionosphere/plasmasphere that allows increased ionizing radiation to come to bear upon the Arctic stratosphere. This is very much a two stage affair, first a slight increase in ionizing radiation and then the solar wind comes into play to allow very much more ionizing radiation to penetrate into the Arctic a week or so after the sunspot event. The warming is top down from above 1hPa. Accordingly I don't think that the breaking tropospheric wave theory has legs. It's plainly unphysical. The really important change is in the plasmasphere/magnetosphere where the solar wind comes into play and it affects the distribution and density of the atmosphere at the pole vis a vis the Equator. I visualize a spinning top effect with the greater centrifugal force holding that tropical atmosphere away from the Equator for an extended period of time once it is disturbed by the solar wind.

The extraordinarily quiet sun allows this observation. This is a very different solar minimum and its like a laboratory in action. The stratosphere is cold and dry, its ozone levels are recovering and it is gradually warming, and in so doing reversing a trend of 30 years. The response of the stratosphere varies with its ozone content. This has been known for a long time. It gets a mention in Van Loon and Labitzke's book 'The Stratosphere'. Now is the time to see what a little bit of solar activity can do to a very responsive atmosphere.

Nobody who values their job will give credence to a notion that the stratosphere (where temperature increases in elevation due to the impact of solar radiation) can respond to a change in solar parameters. It would be the thin edge of the wedge of an alternative explanation of the observed warming. Once it is acknowledged that the upper troposphere responds to solar influences the greenhouse theory is unneccessary.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Seeing as we are discovering so much about the lowering of the ionosphere and the general weakening of the magnetosphere I am also curious as to the impacts of solar activity now that our 'shield' is weaker. When I read about SSW they are constantly telling me they are rare and happen only every couple of years. This doesn't square with the past 5 years of activity.

If the odd X-Ray 'pop' can impact weather so much then what of SC24 solar max????

Though the model watchers keep telling me we have 'blocking' around the corner I am not seeing it in the way I imagined it to be (like the easterlies of the early 80's). to me it appears short lived at best with a slack Atlantic still bringing impacts to us here. Maybe we have 2 ways of producing the SSW. One way, by rosby waves off mountains, is driven by our synoptics and so ,via the teleconnections, is probably more primed to bring about predictable changes downstream (like any weather event) . The other way of propagation is by solar/extra-terrestrial impacts and has nothing to do with what is happening in the troposphere at the time so it's 'teleconnections' for cold/blocking may not be present leading to a lesser impact on conditions at the surface.

Due to the magnitude of this event it will be interesting to find out whether we get as severe an impact on the weather as the event gave in the strat. At the moment we just look to have a continuation of the -ve PDO synoptics we've had all winter!

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

After a dearth of MMW's in the 90's it does appear that there has been an above average number in the last few years which does beg the question why is that so.

I believe that both tropospheric (such as Rossby wave breaking events) and other maybe extra terrestial/ solar events may be working in conjunction to create a propagating MMW. One may be a prerequesite or preconditioning for the other to set off the MMW. I don't think I would rule out tropospheric impacts as a causation because of the timing of the wavebreaking events seen before MMWs. Perhaps the degree of propagation depends upon the timings of both events.

Regarding the present blocking forecasts I personally believe that the MMW can lead to northern blocking, but another effect may be to just reduce the intensity of the polar vortex. When this reduces it can relax its grip on holding the cold over the pole but not necessarily in the same way as true polar high pressure blocks. As we are just entering the time period when this should occur it is too early to call. Certainly this is the first time since the age of internet model watching that I have seen such interesting synoptic outputs whether there has been an MMW or not.

All very interesting that's for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I'm still not seeing any real intensification of the 'cold' we've been having this winter (not like the Beasterlies of yesteryear) and if we are 'running the clock' from 23 Jan then we should be seeing a sign of them by now should'nt we?

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Posted
  • Location: Bethnal Green
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold
  • Location: Bethnal Green

There may not be any intensification of cold but the odds are more for it than against. I'm expecting to see an abrupt shift in the models to high latitude blocking in the next five days. If this doesn't happen then perhaps something has gone wrong, but at present I think the current patterns and model behaviour are well within the boundries expected.

Edited by fozi999
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Re drop in temperature 25°N to 25° in the stratosphere accompanying the increase in temperature 65° to 90°N.

I have changed my mind. This fall in the temperature of the tropical stratosphere is not due to the solar wind shifting the atmosphere and piling it up in the tropics. The fall in temperature in the tropical stratosphere is due to a marked increase in 200hPa temperature in the tropics, a decay of ice cloud coverage yielding a marked increase in sunlight reaching the surface and therefore evaporation. This is swiftly transported into the tropical stratosphere and it takes out the ozone because ozone is highly soluble.

I have been looking back at 2006 when a marked SSW occurred at this time. If one looks at the data at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stra...ure/index.shtml it is apparent that stratospheric temperature in the tropics depends upon the seasonal change in sea surface temperatures in the tropics. Temperature in the stratosphere always takes a marked dip November to March (especially noticeable between 5 and 10hPa) when sea surface temperature in the tropics is rising strongly and the stratospheric warming over the Arctic take place. This is also the time of the year when 200hPa temperature between 30°N and 30°S reaches one of its two seasonal maxima. The other is in August September. The latter I think is driven by the reaction of OLR with ozone and the general warming of the atmosphere associated with the seasonal warming of the land masses of the northern hemisphere. This is the time of minimum global cloud cover and a seasonal low in tropical sea surface temperature. So evaporation will be low too tending to allow stratosphere temperature to rise.

The increase in 200hPa temperature in the tropics in November to March is driven by the same thing that drives the stratospheric warming, the sun. It is the timing of the temperature increase that implicates the solar wind. It is the 5-8 day lag at 30hPa.

How do we know it starts in the upper stratosphere and propagates downwards? Because that's the way the temperature increase occurs. The lower down we look the more the response is delayed and the longer the temperature change persists. Form follows function.

200hPa temperature between 30°N and 30°S is strongly correlated with sea surface temperature in the tropics. This is the ENSO driver. At the time when global cloud cover is strongest, at the start of the year the sun has the power to evaporate the cloud.

Sea surface temperature between 20N and 20S is on the rise with an increase of 0.265° Jan 2009 over Jan 2008.

Does this make sense?

I am not a meteorologist so the synoptics of what is happening in the Arctic and the blockings that you speak of are a mystery to me. However, the increase in 200 hPa temperature will weaken the mid latitude high pressure cells and accentuate the Arctic downdraft. At the same time the trades will weaken. I expect you in the Northern Hemisphere are in for a chilly time. But summer should bring a warmer tropical ocean. The spring transition should be swift.

This is a big call. Hope it's right. But just before you call me wrong have a look at what is happening to global 200hPa temperature at:http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps

What is it that has caused global 2a00hPa temperatures to increase from about 11th January? Its 0.54° warmer than this day last year at 250hPa and 0.74° warmer at 400 hPa.

Notice of a new paper

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 71, Issue 2, February 2009, Pages 216-220:

QBO in solar wind speed and its relation to ENSO

by Klemens Hocke

Abstract:

Corotating coronal holes of the Sun induce fluctuations of the solar wind speed in the vicinity of the Earth. The fluctuations of solar wind speed are closely correlated with geomagnetic activity. Solar wind speed has been monitored by satellites since the mid 1960s. The long-term series of solar wind speed show enhanced amplitudes at the solar rotation period 27.3 days and at its harmonics 13.6 and 9.1 days. The amplitude series are modulated by a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with a period of 1.75a (21 months) as bispectral analysis reveals. A 1.75a QBO component is also present in the equatorial, zonal wind of the stratosphere at 30 hPa, in addition to the well-known QBO component at the period 2.4a (29 months). The solar wind QBO may influence the stratospheric QBO, the global electric circuit, and cloud cover by modulation of ionospheric electric fields, cosmic ray flux, and particle precipitation. For a further analysis, the series of solar wind speed fluctuations are bandpass-filtered at the period 1.75a. The filtered series provide the amplitude of the solar wind QBO as function of time. The maxima of the solar wind QBO series are correlated with those of the ENSO index. The analysis indicate that the solar wind QBO may trigger the ENSO activity. This result is speculative at the moment. However, the focus of the study is on the investigation of the long-term modulations of the short-term (4–45 days) oscillations of the solar wind speed which are quite unexplored yet.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

So , here we are .

March is in the models and we are still not seeing thing 'calm' back to normal within the strat in time for an FW to form at the end of the season.

Will this mean an extension to 'winter' with the FW later than normal or is this not only to be the biggest event we've monitored but is it also to be the earliest FW we've ever seen due to the 'ripples' from the jolt (MMW) being so big and many that they are slow to subside that we won't have enough time for a 'FW'

(in the normal sense/as we understand it at the moment)?

I ask for I'd like to have a better informed opinion from those of greater knowledge than me! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
Is it any wonder you seek replies without answer when you post crap like this?

Cheers Col!! Many blessings to you too! :)

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
Is it any wonder you seek replies without answer when you post crap like this?

I was going to add to this thread but after reading the above which i think Delta X-Ray so aptly described i think it would be wasted in here.

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Blast from the Past

Re the Hale Cycle Winter.

Thanks for your comment that I am nicely describing a Hale Cycle winter.

I offer this:

Leif Svalgaard "there is a 22-year cycle in geomagnetic storms [and we know why] such that they are stronger from the maximum of even cycles to the maximum of odd cycles and weaker from the maximum of odd cycles to the maximum of even cycles. So the years ahead [until 2013] will see weaker storms [or rather the storms will have less effect],"

And from Winston Churchill "Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened."

The connection between the solar wind and tropospheric weather is I suggest via its effect on the intensity of UV light that drives temperature in the interaction zone between the stratosphere and the troposphere where there is sufficient ozone to provoke a response. The high pressure cells that constitute the poleward arm of the Hadley cell are such a place. The solar wind blows, the upper atmosphere (ionosphere) is driven equator-wards by electromagnetic forces as the stronger magnetic field lines at lower latitudes produce greater uplift. The ions are vertically well spread some being present in the stratosphere during daylight hours. Its all pretty tenuous up there (troposphere has 75% of the total) and the neutrals are carried along with the particles with unbalanced electrical charges by electromagnetic forces. I think that that is what a cooling equatorial stratosphere in strict conjunction with a warming Arctic stratosphere tells us.

When the solar wind is less active there is less equatorial warming and a weaker polar vortex. Both of these add up to more ozone in the stratosphere, the first because of less water rising into the equatorial stratosphere and the second due to less erosive nitrogen descending from the mesosphere. So, the atmosphere becomes more reactive to the solar wind influence that changes the flux of UV light.

But, I am no meteorologist and am certainly not at all familiar with the European situation, or the northern Hemisphere for that matter so I would really appreciate if you could fill in the details of what a Hale Cycle winter looks like in the big picture and perhaps relate it to Algeria or the Mediterranean which is closer to what I am familiar with in the south west of Western Australia.

Background: See:http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081215184317.htm

"The thermosphere begins at about 60 miles above Earth and extends to about 300 miles in altitude. The thermosphere gas is known to expand and contract on a 27-day solar rotation period due to changes in extreme UV radiation, said Thayer. The new findings indicate the thermosphere also has periodic oscillations occur at four-to-five days, six-to-seven days and nine-to-11 days caused by the violent effect of the high-speed soar winds interacting with Earth and transferring energy through auroras and enhanced electric currents."

At:http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/39356/title/Solar_wind_pushes_atmospheric_breathing

"The nine-day fluctuation in atmospheric density at high altitude "was a surprising finding" that wasn't correlated with any variation in solar UV flux, says Thayer.

Instead, he and his colleagues found, the short-term cycle matched variations in the speed of the solar wind striking the top of Earth's atmosphere. High-speed blasts of solar wind originate from holes in the sun's outer atmosphere, or corona, that are located at low solar latitudes, says Thayer. When those faster-than-average particles strike the atmosphere, the air heats up and expands to higher altitudes. As the satellites orbiting at those altitudes suddenly encounter thicker air, they slow down. Because the sun rotates once every 27 days and sported three low-latitude coronal holes for most of 2005, surges in solar wind swept by Earth, on average, every nine days.

The variations in the speed of solar wind noted by Thayer and his team also affected the chemistry of Earth's upper atmosphere, says Geoff Crowley, an atmospheric physicist with Atmospheric & Space Technology Research Associates in San Antonio. Using data gathered by a satellite launched in late 2001, Crowley and his colleagues saw a nine-day cycle in the concentrations of monatomic oxygen (O) and diatomic nitrogen (N2) in the upper atmosphere, created by chemical reactions the barrage of high-energy particles triggered. "This [cycle] was completely unexpected," he reported at the meeting."

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Blast from the Past

Re the Hale Cycle Winter.

Thanks for your comment that I am nicely describing a Hale Cycle winter.

I offer this:

Leif Svalgaard "there is a 22-year cycle in geomagnetic storms [and we know why] such that they are stronger from the maximum of even cycles to the maximum of odd cycles and weaker from the maximum of odd cycles to the maximum of even cycles. So the years ahead [until 2013] will see weaker storms [or rather the storms will have less effect],"

And from Winston Churchill "Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened."

The connection between the solar wind and tropospheric weather is I suggest via its effect on the intensity of UV light that drives temperature in the interaction zone between the stratosphere and the troposphere where there is sufficient ozone to provoke a response. The high pressure cells that constitute the poleward arm of the Hadley cell are such a place. The solar wind blows, the upper atmosphere (ionosphere) is driven equator-wards by electromagnetic forces as the stronger magnetic field lines at lower latitudes produce greater uplift. The ions are vertically well spread some being present in the stratosphere during daylight hours. Its all pretty tenuous up there (troposphere has 75% of the total) and the neutrals are carried along with the particles with unbalanced electrical charges by electromagnetic forces. I think that that is what a cooling equatorial stratosphere in strict conjunction with a warming Arctic stratosphere tells us.

When the solar wind is less active there is less equatorial warming and a weaker polar vortex. Both of these add up to more ozone in the stratosphere, the first because of less water rising into the equatorial stratosphere and the second due to less erosive nitrogen descending from the mesosphere. So, the atmosphere becomes more reactive to the solar wind influence that changes the flux of UV light.

But, I am no meteorologist and am certainly not at all familiar with the European situation, or the northern Hemisphere for that matter so I would really appreciate if you could fill in the details of what a Hale Cycle winter looks like in the big picture and perhaps relate it to Algeria or the Mediterranean which is closer to what I am familiar with in the south west of Western Australia.

Hi Erl

During the HALE winter western Europe and North America get a colder winter as these two regions are affected most by the strength and track of the jetstream. The jetstream gets disrupted and sent on a more southerly track and there doesn't need to be extensive blocking to bring about the cold as poar air is allowed to spill southwards due to the supressed jet.

et al

Re the MMW I believe the effects have been felt and have past by...but also some folk must understand that it doesn't have to directly affect the UK for it not to have been effective.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
"As the satellites orbiting at those altitudes suddenly encounter

thicker air, they slow down."

No, they don't, they speed up.

Clearly, the writer has no knowledge of orbital dynamics.

You might need to explain that to me too! :good:

I'd imagine ,as it encounters more air resistance it would create more drag and slow the sat. down leading to a decay in it's orbit and eventual re-entry into the atmosphere.

Please let us know why it should 'speed up' , ta. :lol:

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: South Florida
  • Location: South Florida
The connection between the solar wind and tropospheric weather is I suggest via its effect on the intensity of UV light that drives temperature in the interaction zone between the stratosphere and the troposphere where there is sufficient ozone to provoke a response. The high pressure cells that constitute the poleward arm of the Hadley cell are such a place. The solar wind blows, the upper atmosphere (ionosphere) is driven equator-wards by electromagnetic forces as the stronger magnetic field lines at lower latitudes produce greater uplift. The ions are vertically well spread some being present in the stratosphere during daylight hours. Its all pretty tenuous up there (troposphere has 75% of the total) and the neutrals are carried along with the particles with unbalanced electrical charges by electromagnetic forces. I think that that is what a cooling equatorial stratosphere in strict conjunction with a warming Arctic stratosphere tells us.

post-9733-1236726787_thumb.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasmasphere

Interesting hypothesis, I guess it is a hypothesis by the way you are explaining it.

I think it has more to do with the nature of the UV and IR radiation. The intensity of these type of radiation are inversely related to the distance traveled.

Life on earth is due to the ideal orbit of earth. One of the theories of glaciations, I think it was presented by a Milutin Milankovitch describes how large variations in the orbits of Earth was a root cause of them.

http://mdisas.nascom.nasa.gov/temperatures/mdi_temp_opts01.gif

This link is the front lens of the SOHO satellite it shows a 6 degree swing in temperature between aphelion and perihelion.

The Dresden Codex an ancient Mayan ephemeris describes the next perihelion of Jupiter as the end of a cycle. It is to bad I can't refer to a more recent cipher, but the range of the more precise ones is limited to a hundred years or so the Dresden Codex is a three thousand year projection.

The upcoming perihelion is the closest there has been in the recent calculations, and the next one starts a build out.

This brings me to the sling shot effect of this orbit of Jupiter. If you look the next image a plot of the temperature at 180 west 0 north you will see that a cooling period began at the end of 2007.

http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/1212/tao19982009ia4.gif

This leads me to think that a cooling phase has started as a result of the expanding orbit of the Earth. That is not to say I think that Earth is on the verge of an Ice Age, just a cooling trend of thirty years or so do to the sling shot effect from this orbit of Jupiter. And it is all due to the limited range of the warming effect of UV and IR radiation.

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