Snow Watch: Midlands & C Southern England

[barmybrummy1]

im annoyed looks like all we gonna get is sleet and i dont think thiscold end to feb is very likely total dissapointment

Edited February 7, 2009 by barmybrummy1

[azores92]

im annoyed looks like all we gonna get is sleet and i dont think thiscold end to feb is very likely total dissapointment

why are you so obsessed with the end of february? its a long way off yet, and theres a lot more weatherwise to happen before that. on tomorrow nights event, and the rain/snow boundary keeps changing on the beeb, earlier it was north and west of brum, and now its north and east. im sure itll look different again in the morning.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Im not that fussed bout 2morrow, its monday in my eyes that could be amazing, it depends if it gets hear, we all no the snow lines on both events will not be exactly as they say, a shift of 50miles will give us the snow, the southerly Lp systems have came further north on every event so far last wk , and as its quite intense i think it will again , but who knows, i am quite pleased tho over all.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

much less cold today 5.0C my highest temp of feb 09, but i had my lowest minimum of feb 09 at -3.1C, fully cloudy and no sign of it clearing, lost a lot of snow but surprisingly some still left, 7th day in a row with snow on ground

looks like staying cloudy 3.3C now, wont have any snow left in morning

[loopydreamer]

well im sure it's below freezing here in worcester. Isn't it?

[Nick L]

2c here but it feels way colder outside!

[stewfox]

much less cold today 5.0C my highest temp of feb 09, but i had my lowest minimum of feb 09 at -3.1C, fully cloudy and no sign of it clearing, lost a lot of snow but surprisingly some still left, 7th day in a row with snow on ground

looks like staying cloudy 3.3C now, wont have any snow left in morning

I cant believe it was much above 2c here today as not major snow melt

I just hope we dont get too much rain tomorrow, I dont think we would get snow this far south , under 300/400ft at least anyway

Maybe better chance monday/tuesday night

What ever happens i think (even if with snowmans help) will have snow on ground for 168 hrs + . Must be first time for 18yrs +

[andy_leics22]

Guys I am not so sure about the forecast of sleet tomorrow night. If I get this wrong then I hold my hands up but I think it could be snow instead.

This is the 12z UKMO chart, this is the latest one and it should be accurate.

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U30-7.GIF?07-18

Ok it's -4 850's over the East Midlands and -3 over the West Midlands but it snowed on Thursday in the Midlands when the upper air was -2 and -3.

Temperatures around -1c to 1c

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U30-580.GIF?07-18

Heres the precip and 528 dam line...

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U30-594.GIF?07-18

Precip looks nice, 528 dam line is over parts of the West Midlands, I think there will be more snow than sleet around, but the BBC and Met-O are experts, I am not. Bare in mind my forecast though and lets just see what materialises.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

not confident about tomorrow, i feel it will be a repeat snowwise of 4th dec 2008, i saw none, as for monday i feel it will be too far south

my temp only slowly falling 2.3C now, still got bits of snow but maybe not for long

[andy_leics22]

not confident about tomorrow, i feel it will be a repeat snowwise of 4th dec 2008, i saw none, as for monday i feel it will be too far south

my temp only slowly falling 2.3C now, still got bits of snow but maybe not for long

If the UKMO chart I posted comes true it will snow in Stafford, 0-1c temperatures at 7pm, -4 upper air, 528 dam line South of Stafford and plenty of precip. That only has one outcome and it's 80% likely to be snow and 20% likely to be sleet, lets see what happens.

[Nick L]

If the UKMO chart I posted comes true it will snow in Stafford, 0-1c temperatures at 7pm, -4 upper air, 528 dam line South of Stafford and plenty of precip. That only has one outcome and it's 80% likely to be snow and 20% likely to be sleet, lets see what happens.

You have been right on several occasions this winter Andy, let's hope this continues for tomorrow! Met Office and BBC have got plenty wrong so far.

[Costa Del Fal]

Guys I am not so sure about the forecast of sleet tomorrow night. If I get this wrong then I hold my hands up but I think it could be snow instead.

This is the 12z UKMO chart, this is the latest one and it should be accurate.

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U30-7.GIF?07-18

Ok it's -4 850's over the East Midlands and -3 over the West Midlands but it snowed on Thursday in the Midlands when the upper air was -2 and -3.

Temperatures around -1c to 1c

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U30-580.GIF?07-18

Heres the precip and 528 dam line...

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U30-594.GIF?07-18

Precip looks nice, 528 dam line is over parts of the West Midlands, I think there will be more snow than sleet around, but the BBC and Met-O are experts, I am not. Bare in mind my forecast though and lets just see what materialises.

I agree. It looks good for here too if that is to be believed.

[dogs32]

jay Wynn of the BBC had large central parts of the UK in snow...

Round 4 is on its way for Monday

[Snowyowl9]

This cloudcover looks stubborn 1.0c but low dewpoints are helping with cold upper air in place,doesn`t look to be any thawing now.

As for mondays low BBC may well be way too far south, looking at ECM tonight.

This has the makings of an east/NE blizzard if the track is dead on northern edge who will be lucky.

[Nick L]

My only worry is that if we get much more snow, we will have even more snow days at school (I have missed 3 of them the past week!) and half term could get cancelled. They have already cancelled the staff training day this week.

[Bolton67]

Guys I am not so sure about the forecast of sleet tomorrow night. If I get this wrong then I hold my hands up but I think it could be snow instead.

This is the 12z UKMO chart, this is the latest one and it should be accurate.

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U30-7.GIF?07-18

Ok it's -4 850's over the East Midlands and -3 over the West Midlands but it snowed on Thursday in the Midlands when the upper air was -2 and -3.

Temperatures around -1c to 1c

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U30-580.GIF?07-18

Heres the precip and 528 dam line...

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U30-594.GIF?07-18

Precip looks nice, 528 dam line is over parts of the West Midlands, I think there will be more snow than sleet around, but the BBC and Met-O are experts, I am not. Bare in mind my forecast though and lets just see what materialises.

That has us both slam bang in the centre.

[Costa Del Fal]

My only worry is that if we get much more snow, we will have even more snow days at school (I have missed 3 of them the past week!) and half term could get cancelled. They have already cancelled the staff training day this week.

Lol lucky im going Skiing with some of my school next thursday then for a week!

If the BBC Forecast was better for us tomorrows then thats great news!

[Summer of 95]

Here we go again: 2cm fell at some point between midnight and 7am, up comes the sun, up goes the temp, grass turns green again. Down to less than half cover by noon, almost nothing lef now. Was up to 6C in town this afternoon and the sun felt WARM; I even had the car window slightly open around 2pm.

Around here this really is like a March cold snap; snow can settle but unless there is a lot of it it won't stay for more than 6 hours. Why are we getting these much higher than forecast afternoon temperatures all the time?

[andy_leics22]

You have been right on several occasions this winter Andy, let's hope this continues for tomorrow! Met Office and BBC have got plenty wrong so far.

Thanks mate, I don't claim to be a proffesional but having studied the models for about 4 years I feel I have learned a lot. If the UKMO 00z tonight shows exactly the same as the 12z today then I think the Met-Office will change their tune and change it to more of a snow event for the Midlands.

See also as it stands it's a tough one to say where in the Midlands it will be sleet or snow. the Midlands is a large area and I think tomorrow evening may be sleet for Gloucestershire and Hereford but Birmingham and areas west of that may see more in the way of snow and areas like Stafford and Stoke probably 80% likely to be snow. Then as you move Eastwards to Leicester, Nottingham, Rutland I think those areas have an 80% of it being snow too. It seems that the snow line will probably be about 10 miles South of Birmingham. I certainly favour the North and East Midlands to see a better chance of snow from it. I reckon sleet in Wales away from the hills aswell.

Edit: Sorry forgot to include Northampton in the 'likely to be more in the way of snow' catagory.

Edited February 7, 2009 by andy_leics22

[I remember Atlantic 252]

these days off school due to snow seem to be happening a lot, in my school days there was more snow than now, ive only ever been sent home once tues 19th nov 1996 my best snow. never had school shut before the day

that day teachers couldnt get in, was in school the morning with no teacher

could mon tues be a repeat?

my best snow

850 temps

tuesdays low

looks a similar chart

Edited February 7, 2009 by mark forster 630

[Costa Del Fal]

Here we go again: 2cm fell at some point between midnight and 7am, up comes the sun, up goes the temp, grass turns green again. Down to less than half cover by noon, almost nothing lef now. Was up to 6C in town this afternoon and the sun felt WARM; I even had the car window slightly open around 2pm.

Around here this really is like a March cold snap; snow can settle but unless there is a lot of it it won't stay for more than 6 hours. Why are we getting these much higher than forecast afternoon temperatures all the time?

Yeah, got above 5c today and the sun wasnt on my sensor then and i suspect it was even high then that for the maximum!

[andy_leics22]

Here we go again: 2cm fell at some point between midnight and 7am, up comes the sun, up goes the temp, grass turns green again. Down to less than half cover by noon, almost nothing lef now. Was up to 6C in town this afternoon and the sun felt WARM; I even had the car window slightly open around 2pm.

Around here this really is like a March cold snap; snow can settle but unless there is a lot of it it won't stay for more than 6 hours. Why are we getting these much higher than forecast afternoon temperatures all the time?

Well last night it got down to -7 here, the forecast was -4 minimum so you could say it gets lower than forecast aswell.

[J10]

Certainly would prefer the UKMO to be correct in terms of Monday nights events, but this is at 48 hours away, the charts have got it wrong at 6 hours away in the past week. I would be surprised if the event ended as far north as the GFS currently suggests going by recent trends of this winter, when similar events has tended to pushed further south closer to the time, sometimes too far south for my liking.

[Nick L]

these days off school due to snow seem to be happening a lot, in my school days there was more snow than now, ive only ever been sent home once tues 19th nov 1996 my best snow. never had school shut before the day

that day teachers couldnt get in, was in school the morning with no teacher

Even I think it was a bit pathetic, we only got about 2 inches of snow at the most apparently.

But apparently, when school reopened for Wednesday, several people were taken to hospital because morons put stones in snowballs - so maybe that was a factor in reclosing it.

[NorthantsSnow]

That has us both slam bang in the centre.

MetO 5 day forecast showing light rain for here, so no wintry element at all if that is correct.

To be honest I remain unconvinced with regard to snow potential here for the next few days but after what happened here Thu/Fri I'm not ruling anything out.

At least it won't be mild