The Met Office Got It Wrong

[Mondy]

LINK

the scientists at the Met Office are conceding that their early forecast of a mild winter – issued in September last year – was wrong

Despite global warming there could be further colder-than-average winters in the years ahead as the climate cools naturally, the Met Office believes. Mr Britton said that the last 10-year assessment – carried out in 2004 – suggested a decade where global warming would be held back by a natural cooling trend. But beyond 2014 the climate will resume its warming trend, he said.

Supercomputer output from the main European weather modelling systems

eh?????

[Methuselah]

I though the MetO forecast was for slightly below average temps, at least through December and January?? Didn't they say that early snowfall was very likely?

I'm sure they said February would be mild though...

[Nick L]

Well I praise the Met Office for admitting their mistake

Pete, they originally said that winter on the whole would be mild, which now (barring a remarkable mild spell) looks wide of the mark.

Edited February 7, 2009 by nick2702

[john w]

Well the recent weeks just confirms whati tried to say in the worst essay question i ever had at uni.

Can a supercomputer ever get it right???

You look at the ensembles for the main outputs and how varied they are at T+240....let along at T+20,000.

Thats why I dont think they will ever quite know what is happening, data recorded is far more valuable than data predicted and nothing will ever be spot on!

Thumbs up to the meto for admitting it though...but i only think feb is wrong to date...Im sure they went for a cooler dec and jan period

[Methuselah]

Well I praise the Met Office for admitting their mistake

Pete, they originally said that winter on the whole would be mild, which now (barring a remarkable mild spell) looks wide of the mark.

As wide as Darren Bent??

[Snowyowl9]

They said it would be a cooler winter on average to last year in there first forecast,sounded like a slightly less cold winter to 2005/06 to me.

So it looks like so far a cold october with snow even in london, for the following winter means absolutely zilch. to the following winter, so different to 1974.

[Methuselah]

They said it would be a cooler winter on average to last year in there first forecast,sounded like a slightly less cold winter to 2005/06 to me.

So it looks like so far a cold october with snow even in london, for the following winter means absolutely zilch. to the following winter, so different to 1974.

Aye. That one was a classic wasn't it? Snow in October and early November, nothing until late February or early March...Then snow until June!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Adding grist to the mill,

This first one is a Global warming comment

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/03/arct...at-record-rate/

and

This points out the Met Office REALLY got it wrong

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/01/met-...at-the-23-mark/

and

this one is quite contentious, believable though

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/30/co2-...s-and-ice-ages/

[rich1]

My feeling was that the signals pointed to a cold season but the Met Office were a bit reluctant to go for it, as firstly the media will jump on it and secondly after the number of mild winters we have had in the last 20 years they didnt quite dare go against the trend. They kind of sat on the fence, said it wouldnt be so mild as in previous years but still 'above average', but at least they adjusted it when they felt they couldnt ignore what appeared to be happening. Their caution may have bitten them on the rse this time, though its not as though they were way out, if it had been 1962-3 and they forecasted a 1988-9 then they would have been way out, but they didnt do an Ian Brown I guess :lol:

[Thundery wintry showers]

Well, it just goes to show that the Met Office, like all long-range forecasters, can sometimes get it wrong. They've done pretty well in the last few years- outstandingly so in the case of winter 2005/06- but not this year. Even with supercomputer-generated forecasts the accuracy is always limited by the reliability of the supercomputer and those who interpret its outputs.

I could just as easily talk about the hit-and-miss nature of my own long-range forecasts. I think I handled the snow event at the beginning of February pretty well- indeed I even hinted at it at the mid-January forecast update- and I think I was pretty accurate about that warmer air in the east as well. But then I forecast that Thursday/Friday would see "rain moving south". Over much of central and south-western Britain this proved to be embarrassingly wide of the mark, especially at Okehampton where this supposed "rain" fell as 55cm of snow.

Weather forecasting is always tricky- and especially when we get a winter like this one!

[high ground birmingham]

Well I praise the Met Office for admitting their mistake

Pete, they originally said that winter on the whole would be mild, which now (barring a remarkable mild spell) looks wide of the mark.

What remarkable mild spell??

Theres hardly been any days with double figure temps here in birmingham. Probably no more than 6 or 7 in this whole winter. I haven't kept a record but as an estimate, the 10C mark has probably only been breached about 6-7 times here in birmingham.

[Don]

In the time that I have been following the Met Office seasonal forecasts, IMO, they have been generally very good. If I remember correctly, they didn't do too well forecasting Summer 2003 where I think they went for an average Summer, needless to say what the actual outcome was! Also, their forecast for Summer 2007 was off the mark too. And of course they called this Winter wrong in September and October. However, their general forecasting for the Winter season is pretty good and they also state that they have higher accuracy for their Winter forecasting. Indeed, apart from Winter 2008/09, they have got all Winter's since 2001 pretty much spot on.

On balance I would conclude that they are not perfect, but pretty good.

[Mondy]

Surprised nobody has picked up on this part yet:

Mr Britton said that the last 10-year assessment – carried out in 2004

2004..as long 4/5years ago? Things change yearly. So they have been using an assessment which is way out of date.

[Mondy]

PS, I couldn't not drop this in here !

[johnholmes]

he is a little gem isn't he?

Just how many times has he been right in a synoptic sense.

I have not the time to check the accuracy of his comments in the link you provide.

How can anyone expect a government department to take up his challenge for heavens sake. Privately have a bet with one of the Hadley Centre team but its a bit daft to issue a challenge to the whole department or indeed the Met O as a whole.

good headlines though for the Daily etc!

Edited February 7, 2009 by johnholmes

[Nick L]

What remarkable mild spell??

Theres hardly been any days with double figure temps here in birmingham. Probably no more than 6 or 7 in this whole winter. I haven't kept a record but as an estimate, the 10C mark has probably only been breached about 6-7 times here in birmingham.

If you actually read my post you will realise your error.

[keithlucky]

If you actually read my post you will realise your error.

Two weather warnings out for monday and tuesday,for south of uk lets hope they get this right?

[Mondy]

he is a little gem isn't he?

Just how many times has he been right in a synoptic sense.

I have not the time to check the accuracy of his comments in the link you provide.

How can anyone expect a government department to take up his challenge for heavens sake. Privately have a bet with one of the Hadley Centre team but its a bit daft to issue a challenge to the whole department or indeed the Met O as a whole.

good headlines though for the Daily etc!

I have no axe to grind in assessment, but to be taken seriously, why use a bet as a challenge? There is a chance some of his work does contradict the Meto, but like you, I ain't read much into it yet.

Edited February 7, 2009 by Delta X-Ray

[wradmore]

Regarding the last snowfall event here in Mid Devon the Met Office didn't predict the blizzard we had here. I stayed up all night watching the snowfall and the wind was up to severe strength at times. The wind caused several trees to fall over our area. In the local press the Met Office said that there was thunder in the storm on Friday morning. I can say there was not any as i had my lightning detector on. Another thing is the MO did not put the southwest on a red (take action) alert. Surely with every road cut off this should have been.

Anyway we did have the heaviest snowfall here since 1978 with drifts up to 8ft deep.

Hopefully the MO will predict the next blizzard on Monday night.

[Hiya]

Despite global warming there could be further colder-than-average winters in the years ahead as the climate cools naturally, the Met Office believes.

That comment really wound me up, especially the way "naturally" is slipped in there.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The question lies in whether the Met Office phrased it that way or whether it was just the newspaper.

It is in line with the current consensus of prediction, namely that natural factors are likely to hold global temperatures in place for another five years or so (though I haven't heard of any predictions of cooling yet) and then a warming after around 2015. I'm guessing that "despite global warming" really means "despite the overall background warming trend". I agree that it's poorly worded.