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Snow Watch: Scotland

Ross B

By Ross B
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Mondy Enthusiast

Mondy

Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert
Posted
You don't think the front is gonna split in half and head south and north and completely miss the central belt? B)

http://www.sat24.com/

This map from the Meto intrigues me:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/images....gif?1234038662

If the front does split or is splitting then the areas without warning suggest what I earlier thought. Bypass..

Play the latest sat runs and you'll see the middle part of the front is nowhere near as beefy as the south or north flank

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/R...UROPE/index.htm

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted
This seems to be what the UKMO PPN charts are showing. B)

let's see what it does before we reach any hasty conclusions

it might, but that may not mean a lack of snow

the gfs still shows some hefty snow here even though it assumes the front will break up

and if the front doesn't the event could be epic

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Ross B Accomplished

Ross B

Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Author
Posted
This map from the Meto intrigues me:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/images....gif?1234038662

If the front does split or is splitting then the areas without warning suggest what I earlier thought. Bypass..

The orange on that map with the exception of N.Ireland is for ICE.

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted (edited)
This map from the Meto intrigues me:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/images....gif?1234038662

If the front does split or is splitting then the areas without warning suggest what I earlier thought. Bypass..

Play the latest sat runs and you'll see the middle part of the front is nowhere near as beefy as the south or north flank

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/R...UROPE/index.htm

that map shows warnings for ice not snow

ukir_sat_200902072100.jpg

ukir_sat_200902072000.jpg

i know what you mean but it looks as weak as on the previous charts

ukir_sat_200902071900.jpg

Edited by cwpiper
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Mondy Enthusiast

Mondy

Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert
Posted
The orange on that map with the exception of N.Ireland is for ICE.

Well, it is the Meto chart, and going by previous flash alerts/advanced warnings [from them] the orange on the map, to all intents and purposes could be the amount of honey bees spotted recently. I really do take the meto with a pinch of salt nowadays. You only have to ask Coastie up in Shetland how wrong, or dare I say it, how ignorant of the fact they were to his pasting last night - without any warning (red alert) for his area.

The Met Office has responsibility for providing weather warnings for the UK.

I assume Coastie begs to differ on that :-)

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted (edited)
Well, it is the Meto chart, and going by previous flash alerts/advanced warnings [from them] the orange on the map, to all intents and purposes could be the amount of honey bees spotted recently. I really do take the meto with a pinch of salt nowadays. You only have to ask Coastie up in Shetland how wrong, or dare I say it, how ignorant of the fact they were to his pasting last night - without any warning (red alert) for his area.

I assume Coastie begs to differ on that :-)

so true

i really think that if it does split it leaves most of the precip heading for us

the warnings have been truly appaling, and almost always inaccurate (except the ones issued WHEN it is actually snowing)

the gfs assumes that it will split, and as shugee's brilliant explanation shows, that set-up still looks good for snow

i don't even think it will split, at least not to much of a degree

wait... the 18z is coming out

snow is still approaching western scotland tonight, so it still should get here

changing the subject slightly, what time is the main stuff meant to start in the east?

it looks like 3-6pm

oh cr*p, it looks like the snow misses us so far, but the gfs isn't normally wholly right and it peculiarly assumes an easterly wind for us so i suggest that it isn't taken too seriously

Edited by cwpiper
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Scottish-Irish Skier Maestro

Scottish-Irish Skier

Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
Posted

T = -2.1 C, DP = -6.0 C, light cloud.

Not going to get too worried about the front splitting, certainly not tonight anyway. Just have to wait with fingers crossed.

In the end we have to be very happy with the way this winter is going - much more like the old days of the 80's/early 90's (when I was young and not pessimistic). Let's hope it continues, rather than reverting to raging atlantic with 16 C peaks in the middle of january. Last ten years have been terrible for scottish skiing - even with good snowfalls the swaths of warm wet air sweeping in always killed any base before it could develop. Starting last winter, that all changed, with great conditions into april/may - skiing even possible on midsummers day. This winter looks like it might give the same or better.....

Hope everyone sees a good bit of the white stuff at some point, and very much enjoying a good kilted/haggis thread.

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted (edited)
Oh dear...

anyone watching the GFS 18z?

it shows NO PRECIPITATION reaching Scotland tomorrow... it looks bone dry. :yahoo:

watch the wind maps

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

far more accurate

i don't think it will fragment btw

it looks like it is just about holding together

Edited by cwpiper
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Mondy Enthusiast

Mondy

Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert
Posted (edited)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7876888.stm

"Starting in Northern Ireland, there'll be snow tomorrow - in the afternoon and evening it will spread to northern England and southern Scotland."

A fresh wave of snow is expected to hit the country on MondayHe said snow was likely to stay on the ground in Scotland until the early hours of Monday morning.

:yahoo:

Edited by Delta X-Ray
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Sawel Aficionado

Sawel

Posted
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
Posted

The latest UKMO and GFS PPN charts for tomorrow are looking poor for Scotland. Shame really, it's our turn for some white stuff.

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted
The latest UKMO and GFS PPN charts for tomorrow are looking poor for Scotland. Shame really, it's our turn for some white stuff.

don't call it over yet, please, it might just hold

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LadyPakal Rookie

LadyPakal

Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
Posted (edited)

Snowing again here - heavy showr going over. With a temp of around -1 (was down to -2 earlier) everything is set hard out there.

Edited by LadyPakal
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Sawel Aficionado

Sawel

Posted
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
Posted
don't call it over yet, please, it might just hold

Not calling it over but the latest output from the UKMO and GFS is a big downgrade for tomorrow.

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Northernlights Maestro

Northernlights

Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
Posted

Well after almost 24 hrs of wet snow and sleet showers it stared to freeze again about 4.00pm and the snow showers became dryer We have had about 2 inches of dry powdery snow in the last hour which is sparkling on the old frozen snow, light N wind and temp of -2c. Must say this weather is good for hay sales.

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted
Not calling it over but the latest output from the UKMO and GFS is a big downgrade for tomorrow.

these charts are based on 4 hours old info

things change quickly(as can be seen from this)

at 6 the front looked like it would fragment

if you look at the last few satellite images, you can see that although the middle bulk of cloud is weakened, it is still attached to the north and south ends of the front

the gfs is odd as it assumes an easterly wind on sunday at 6

it seems to shift very suddenly to an easterly so i must assume that it is inaccurate!!!

the current winds and the chart 21:00 winds are different so I really wouldn't take it as much of a guide

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Sawel Aficionado

Sawel

Posted
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
Posted
these charts are based on 4 hours old info

things change quickly(as can be seen from this)

at 6 the front looked like it would fragment

if you look at the last few satellite images, you can see that although the middle bulk of cloud is weakened, it is still attached to the north and south ends of the front

the gfs is odd as it assumes an easterly wind on sunday at 6

it seems to shift very suddenly to an easterly so i must assume that it is inaccurate!!!

the current winds and the chart 21:00 winds are different so I really wouldn't take it as much of a guide

But the GFS 18z is coming out as we speak and is following the UKMO in seriously downgrading the PPN for tomorrow.

I think you should be preparing yourself for disappointment tomorrow.

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted (edited)
But the GFS 18z is coming out as we speak and is following the UKMO in seriously downgrading the PPN for tomorrow.

I think you should be preparing yourself for disappointment tomorrow.

isn't the 18z run at 18:00?

does that not make it 4 hours out of date?

I might well be disappointed tomorrow but i'm not giving up hope yet

anyway, i'm going to bed

hopefully the outlook will improve by the morning

Edited by cwpiper
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Ross B Accomplished

Ross B

Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Author
Posted
But the GFS 18z is coming out as we speak and is following the UKMO in seriously downgrading the PPN for tomorrow.

I think you should be preparing yourself for disappointment tomorrow.

It still reaches here :D Although, only just :D

We can't ignore the GFS, it has been pretty good recently in forecasting at short range.

On the other hand maybe it is good it misses us on the GFS ? we could end up with a huge dump of snow instead :D

Netweathers very own NMM model has it reaching here but dieing away as it passes over the central belt...

post-26-1234044975_thumb.png post-26-1234045009_thumb.png

A shift of 100 miles either way could leave people with or without snow, so radar watching will be key!

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted
It still reaches here :D Although, only just :D

We can't ignore the GFS, it has been pretty good recently in forecasting at short range.

On the other hand maybe it is good it misses us on the GFS ? we could end up with a huge dump of snow instead :D

Netweathers very own NMM model has it reaching here but dieing away as it passes over the central belt...

post-26-1234044975_thumb.png post-26-1234044975_thumb.png

A shift of 100 miles either way could leave people with or without snow, so i guess radar watching will be key!

thanks for that

i reckon the wait-and-see tactic will work best

will be back on tomorrow at around 12 when things seem clearer

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Sawel Aficionado

Sawel

Posted
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
Posted (edited)
isn't the 18z run at 18:00?

does that not make it 4 hours out of date?

I might well be disappointed tomorrow but i'm not giving up hope yet

anyway, i'm going to bed

hopefully the outlook will improve by the morning

The 18z GFS comes out at 930 pm- It's running as we speak.

Just disappointment after disappointment for us in this cold spell. Don't know about anyone else but I'm P'd off.

Ross- isn't that the 12z GFS you're posting?

This is what the 18z GFS is showing for tomorrow-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn184.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn244.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn244.png

and early monday morning...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn364.png

No Precipitation for the vast majority of Scotland and only very light precipitation in the SW of the country.

Edited by Sawel
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Ross B Accomplished

Ross B

Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Author
Posted
The 18z GFS comes out at 930 pm- It's running as we speak.

Just disappointment after disappointment for us in this cold spell. Don't know about anyone else but I'm P'd off.

Ross- isn't that the 12z GFS you're posting?

This is what the 18z GFS is showing for tomorrow-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn184.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn244.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn244.png

and early monday morning...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn364.png

No Precipitation!

The NMM model only runs twice a day at 7am and 7pm, so i'm not sure exactly what data it uses, probably the 12z data yeah, But it is another possible solution :D

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Mandy Langlands Enthusiast

Mandy Langlands

Posted
  • Location: Carnoustie Angus Scotland. (week days) Dundee (weekends)
  • Location: Carnoustie Angus Scotland. (week days) Dundee (weekends)
Posted (edited)

Traffic scotland camera just south of Aberdeen shows lots has just fallen. Try to post pic but failed. :D

Edited by amanda_langlands
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