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Watching The Channel Low


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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

airpressure.png

Winds back round to a more easterly component for Northern Britain. Gales in the channel, severe gales for France, oh and probably some snow too!

Already mentioned in the shipping forecast as:

Developing low moving northeast, expected 230 miles west of Fitzroy 990

Progged to deepen to 972mb.

Here is the system in the Atlantic, beginning to form now:

Latest-goes_azo_1070.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport

could be some heavy rain and strong winds tomorrow night for the south west

post-4475-1234091131_thumb.pngpost-4475-1234091122_thumb.png

nigel

post-4475-1234091306_thumb.pngpost-4475-1234091300_thumb.png

Possibility for isolated storms to appear

Edited by stormchaser1
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Posted
  • Location: Wales, Valleys - 700ft ASL
  • Location: Wales, Valleys - 700ft ASL

The Met Office has this low in a similar place to GFS but the GFS has it much deeper. Does anyone think the GFS is overdoing how deep it will be, doesn't it tend to do this for channel lows? If so, this should bring the snow further south?

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
FitzRoy

Gale warning 0951 Sun 08 Feb

Southwesterly gale force 8 imminent, increasing severe gale force 9 soon

Shipping forecast 1130 Sun 08 Feb

Wind West or northwest 5 to 7 becoming cyclonic 7 to severe gale 9, perhaps storm 10 later.

Sea State Rough becoming very rough.

Weather Rain.

Visibility Moderate or poor.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine...oy&type=All

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
Winds back round to a more easterly component for Northern Britain. Gales in the channel, severe gales for France, oh and probably some snow too!

Little doubt in my mind that to the north of the low's centre conditions could be at near-emergency level. Strong gale-force winds and driving snow = blizzard winter storm conditions.

This has the potential to be extremely nasty.

The key is the track of the low ...

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Posted
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Sydney, Australia

Yes Yeti, you're right, the track is pretty much the same on the 12z but the milder sector is a tad bigger. Without wanting to discount the GFS, looking elsewhere many people predict the low to be marginally further south..so with that in mind and what the Meto and BBC contonue to predict, anywhere north of M4 for Monday night still looks wintry. Anywhere above the centre of the low will have gusty winds, and sleet and snow falling imo..so still lookings very good. Im not taken the GFS as gospel on this and will continue to look at updates elsewhere. Gonna be nasty for whoever does get the snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Larkfield-KENT
  • Location: Larkfield-KENT

QUOTE (NorthantsSnow @ 8 Feb 2009, 01:57 PM)

Monday night/Tuesday morning is still very confusing.

GFS not optimistic for snow potential here whatsoever until Tuesday afternoon. The UKMO however continue to churn out warnings and appear to be confident that a lot of it will fall as snow.

It's crucial that this forecast is resolved soon because if it does fall as snow there will be tremendous falls in places with such heavy and prolonged precipitation around, even surpassing the falls of last week.

As for the ensembles, I don't think I've ever seen such a brilliant set. The cold theme just continues on and on with no end in sight. You'd have to be a brave man to call a mild spell because I, for one, cannot see one developing for some time! Wrap up folks, the cold and snow is here to stay!

Winter 08/09 is going to go down as one of the greats. We'll be talking about it for years to come I'm sure of it.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It has been a cold winter but as for snow down here then its bin a bit disappointing especially when we keep getting rain and as it passes over us it gives heavy snow to everyone else…

Looking at the models and it looks like more of the same with rain down here but snow anywhere north of London…That's how the models look to me but mayby i'm reading them wong...

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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire

As the 12z GFS comes out, one minor hope is that the strongest winds are relatively early in the passage of the low before the snow risk widely develops through the Midlands - though it's all about degrees. As the snow develops widely early in Tuesday the winds are dying back slightly - that said we're still looking at sustained wind speeds of 25-30mph across almost all of the south and midlands, which with snow too could make Tuesday very unpleasant. If there's one place I'd want to avoid it's Dartmoor/Exmoor/The Quantocks/The Black Mountains, snow risk develops over the moor and hill tops here even as the strongest winds are coming in - it'll be dangerous to be out here overnight Monday into tuesday on the back of recent model outputs.

Edited by Just Before Dawn
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Posted
  • Location: West Bromwich (West Mids) 170m ASL
  • Location: West Bromwich (West Mids) 170m ASL
As the 12z GFS comes out, one minor hope is that the strongest winds are relatively early in the passage of the low before the snow risk widely develops through the Midlands - though it's all about degrees. As the snow develops widely early in Tuesday the winds are dying back slightly - that said we're still looking at sustained wind speeds of 25-30mph across almost all of the south and midlands, which with snow too could make Tuesday very unpleasant. If there's one place I'd want to avoid it's Dartmoor/Exmoor/The Quantocks/The Black Mountains, snow risk develops here even as the strongest winds are coming in - it'll be dangerous to be out here overnight Monday into tuesday on the back of recent model outputs.

Couldn't agree more with you, but i heard today of ANOTHER body being found on Mt Snowdon. It beggars belief that they would go climbing when they have seen of the conditions to come.

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Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon

How bad is it likely to be on Dartmoor? We have had about a foot of lying snow for 3 days now, although it has decreased a bit today, is the wind going to be the dominant feature or should we be expecting problems from the snow/rain?

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

If we take this chart as an example.

airpressure.png

To put in perspective, a deep low like this situated off the west coast of Scotland would give wind speeds easily of 50 - 70mph gusts, sustained 30-40mph. Strongest winds look reserved for the SW of the UK, where it's very conceivable the proper use of the term "blizzards" will be used.

If the low bobbles 50-100 miles north, then you are looking at the same wind speeds affecting mid-England. It's interesting to note the GFS has had this system clocked way out in FI. It's always appeared to be the same deep low, but one big difference is that it has shifted out of The Bay of Biscay altogether, ie it has moved north on track.

I think it's nailed now, so fully expect to see another weather event being covered on the major news channels.

Edited by Delta X-Ray
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Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
How bad is it likely to be on Dartmoor? We have had about a foot of lying snow for 3 days now, although it has decreased a bit today, is the wind going to be the dominant feature or should we be expecting problems from the snow/rain?

Well i would batten down the hatches,and get the sheep off the moor :)

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol, England
  • Location: Bristol, England

The BBC said the risk on snow Monday evening into Tuesday morning is north of the M4. Rather contradicted by the graphics which seemed to

include alot of the West Country as well.

The UK Snow Risk charts do not indicate much snow if at all.

post-3528-1234112050_thumb.png

But that chart for Monday night - Wow! :)

post-3528-1234111973_thumb.png

Edited by Thundersquall
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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
How bad is it likely to be on Dartmoor? We have had about a foot of lying snow for 3 days now, although it has decreased a bit today, is the wind going to be the dominant feature or should we be expecting problems from the snow/rain?

Winds and precipitation, be it rain or snow are worth keeping a close eye on, though as others have said, it depends on the track of the low. Sustained gales with storm-violent storm gusts (55mph or more) are quite possible over the more exposed parts. Any snow that falls will be blown all over the place, and heavy snow in wind speeds like that won't just create blizzards, but also white-out conditions temporarily. Again, depends on precipitation type (general Met O concensus is for rain or sleet, but snow isn't out of the question - perhaps more of a risk in S wales and the Central Welsh mountains), but I would keep an eye on how things develop over the next 12-18 hours.

Edited by Just Before Dawn
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Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
Winds and precipitation, be it rain or snow are worth keeping a close eye on, though as others have said, it depends on the track of the low. Sustained gales with storm-violent storm gusts (55mph or more) are quite possible over the more exposed parts. Any snow that falls will be blown all over the place, and heavy snow in wind speeds like that won't just create blizzards, but also white-out conditions temporarily. Again, depends on precipitation type, but I would keep an eye on how things develop over the next 12-18 hours.

Thanks for that, certainly could be quite interesting.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol, England
  • Location: Bristol, England
nice thread DX certainly one thats got my attention,got the potential to be nasty its called QUINTEN by DWD

Wow - Hurricane force in Biscay! :lol:

Edited by Thundersquall
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Posted
  • Location: Pencoed, South Wales
  • Location: Pencoed, South Wales
The BBC said the risk on snow Monday evening into Tuesday morning is north of the M4. Rather contradicted by the graphics which seemed to

include alot of the West Country as well.

The UK Snow Risk charts do not indicate much snow if at all.

post-3528-1234112050_thumb.png

But that chart for Monday night - Wow! :D

post-3528-1234111973_thumb.png

Yes, I picked up on this too - how likely is it to actually fall as snow??

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

As an avid watcher for years of low pressure systems forming in the cold North Atlantic, I say now this is a system which will pack a punch. I reiterate that if this was forming off the coast of western Scotland (which is less populated) it would be given attention to due to wind speeds, without the added burden of snow/rain.

Storm force 10 is forecast for sea area Fitzroy, so as the low moves into the channel, those same wind speeds will later affect great swathes of the SW in particular.

It's significant that this low is a carbon copy of the one which caused numerous problems (sadly deaths) in France. The main difference is that it's further north in location.

Be prepared.

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Posted
  • Location: Clapham, Wandsworth, South West London
  • Location: Clapham, Wandsworth, South West London

So we geniunly think this will just be rain for London and no snow at all?

Really?

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Posted
  • Location: Edge of the West Cotswolds
  • Location: Edge of the West Cotswolds

Do you think that they will put a warning up on TV to tell people in the worst hit areas DO NOT GO OUT!! I'm sure they used to put up warnings back in the 1980's and they would interupt right in the middle of popular programes to make sure people saw it!

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Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
So we geniunly think this will just be rain for London and no snow at all?

Really?

i think this storm could be extremely unpredictable, and have an unpredictable outcome on the weather post tuesday - - we could end up with a very nasty cold blast afterwards. .... heres hoping for blizzards anyway. if it does snow with this system, it could be potentially an historic snowstorm. personally i cant quite believe it will snow - the origin means there is mild air wrapped in the system. but if it gets asharp nudge southwards of its projected track, things could get extremely interesting.

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