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Watching The Channel Low


Mondy

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Posted
  • Location: Bishop's Stortford in England and Klingenmünster in Germany
  • Location: Bishop's Stortford in England and Klingenmünster in Germany

There does seem to be some difference between the METO/BBC version of "snow north of the M4 and later into East Anglia" and GFS which is suggesting rain in most areas save the higher ground of western areas. This despite the track now being very similar on the GFS and and METO. Anyone any idea why?

T

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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
As an avid watcher for years of low pressure systems forming in the cold North Atlantic, I say now this is a system which will pack a punch. I reiterate that if this was forming off the coast of western Scotland (which is less populated) it would be given attention to due to wind speeds, without the added burden of snow/rain.

Storm force 10 is forecast for sea area Fitzroy, so as the low moves into the channel, those same wind speeds will later affect great swathes of the SW in particular.

It's significant that this low is a carbon copy of the one which caused numerous problems (sadly deaths) in France. The main difference is that it's further north in location.

Be prepared.

Spot on. Another thing to watch for is a storm surge in the Bay of Biscay, driven on by the approaching low pressure and on-shore violent storm force winds. That's scary and a tide +2 or 2.5m above scheduled tide heights would not be out of the ordinary for a system like this. Less likely to be a problem in the south west because of the predominantly northerly wind direction. As you say, this would pique the interest if it tracked to the N of NW Scotland. In this location it's worth keeping a very close eye on.

Edited by Just Before Dawn
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
You can view a video about the channel low here: (put together by John Holmes and voiced over by myself)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=beta1;sess=

Shame that my internet connection is unbelievably slow, would have been a good watch. Could somebody give me the general synopsis of it please?

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
As the 12z GFS comes out, one minor hope is that the strongest winds are relatively early in the passage of the low before the snow risk widely develops through the Midlands - though it's all about degrees. As the snow develops widely early in Tuesday the winds are dying back slightly - that said we're still looking at sustained wind speeds of 25-30mph across almost all of the south and midlands, which with snow too could make Tuesday very unpleasant. If there's one place I'd want to avoid it's Dartmoor/Exmoor/The Quantocks/The Black Mountains, snow risk develops over the moor and hill tops here even as the strongest winds are coming in - it'll be dangerous to be out here overnight Monday into tuesday on the back of recent model outputs.

what about the mendips?

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol, England
  • Location: Bristol, England
You can view a video about the channel low here: (put together by John Holmes and voiced over by myself)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=beta1;sess=

Having watched the video, it seems to me the BBC are a bit over-zealous stating there could be

blizzards in major towns and cities north of the M4.

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

looking at various charts i see the 528 dam line does not get over the southwest untill tuesday dinnertime-ish but futher north ie wales midlands it looks like monday based on this i reckon some people are in for a shock

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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
what about the mendips?

Yep, I don't know why I missed them out. The Western Cotswolds too.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Well presented but definitely different to bbc and met snow chances.

For me in the central mids. only chance of snow would be backedge of the low as it retreats east into the n.sea.

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Posted
  • Location: Lancashire, North West England
  • Location: Lancashire, North West England

The further north you are the more likely you will see significant snowfall.

Can't see the front affecting us here in the north-west of England sadly ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham

I really, really hope the South and Midlands get torrential rain, washing every last bit of the 6ft or so of snow that you've had away.

And that the low pressure is centred so far North that I get a pasting.

No, I'm not bitter.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Well presented but definitely different to bbc and met snow chances.

For me in the central mids. only chance of snow would be backedge of the low as it retreats east into the n.sea.

so as the fronts moving north surely that dosnt diminish out snow event does it?? the area of snow the bbc showed from th m4 corridor surely gives us room to move north anyway???? im dont think it will all change to be honest, ones are so took in by every thread , i remain very confident myself, comments welcome :doh:

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
I really, really hope the South and Midlands get torrential rain, washing every last bit of the 6ft or so of snow that you've had away.

And that the low pressure is centred so far North that I get a pasting.

No, I'm not bitter.

lol we no your not and yes i am getting a pasting as we speak

post-6740-1234115156_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I'll try and find time to input into here with a view of the 2 main models using their 12z data to show where each puts the low, show a few Extra or NMM charts, and maybe give an updated view on Monday-Tuesday.

It all depends on availability for me this evening.

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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
I'll try and find time to input into here with a view of the 2 main models using their 12z data to show where each puts the low, show a few Extra or NMM charts, and maybe give an updated view on Monday-Tuesday.

It all depends on availability for me this evening.

The excellent video gives a very clear and concise view about how things develop according to the 12z run, John. It's well worth a look if anyone hasn't seen it.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
I really, really hope the South and Midlands get torrential rain, washing every last bit of the 6ft or so of snow that you've had away.

And that the low pressure is centred so far North that I get a pasting.

No, I'm not bitter.

I've only got about an inch on the ground. It's the south west you want to be hating!

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Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge
  • Location: Stourbridge
I'll try and find time to input into here with a view of the 2 main models using their 12z data to show where each puts the low, show a few Extra or NMM charts, and maybe give an updated view on Monday-Tuesday.

It all depends on availability for me this evening.

it really is a shame after the hype over blizzards earlier. desperately disappointed, guess i paid too much attention to the bbc forecasts.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

Still plenty of time for things to change, we all saw what happened last week with the snow being as much as 100 miles out even as the forecast were saying it would snow in the east, it all moved 100 west so the same could happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

You can view a video about the channel low here: (put together by John Holmes and voiced over by myself)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=beta1;sess=

Thanks for the Video Paul, loved the Graphics and very informative.

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

The low is now at 1000mb and clearly visible on the analysis chart:

Shipping forecast has this:

FitzRoy

West or southwest 5 to 7 becoming cyclonic gale 8 to storm 10, perhaps violent storm 11 later. Rough becoming very rough or high. Rain. Poor

So it's expected to deepen to 976mb by tomorrow at 0600. That technically equates to bombogenesis, ie Bombogenesis is defined as a mid-latitude cyclone that drops in surface barometric pressure by 24 or more millibars in a 24-hour period. GFS has it at 972mb.

post-8552-1234116180_thumb.jpg

Edited by Delta X-Ray
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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper

I would just like to say that a few years ago a similar situation arose,a Channel Low was forecast dire warnings were given out ie dont travel,take a hot drink and a shovel if you do type of thing and the south of england awoke to dry pavements the low slid off at the last minute into France,all that i am asking is could it possibly happen again or is the setup now close enough to treat as near gospel,You see ,only the other daythere was a siuation where this part of the world was expecting rain as per the forecast and for a short while thats what we got then due to unforecast frontal movement we had snow for many hours.

Just out of interest,does anyone remember the non event date regarding my opening remarks?

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