Watching The Channel Low

[Mondy]

Interesting graphics there. With the wind strong to gale force, eastern Wales could get a pasting. Drifting snow perhaps.

Edited February 8, 2009 by Delta X-Ray

[snowhope]

Latest BBC update

SK

Would gladly take that, but I think it is wait and see. There are no snow icons across my area for tomorrow on met or bbc forecasts , I dont think they know really where will be affected on that, looking forward to it though.

[kold weather]

Places most effected on Fridays system will likely get a fair pasting tomorrow I think. Upper temps aren't amazing but with a certain amount of cold air still in place at the surface still looks promising for the midlands, esp west and central parts.

[NiikAURA]

What are the prospects for where I am, (North-East Wales)

I am aware that areas like Powys and south will get some form of precipitation, but will the snow extend this far north?

[MKN]

Im completely confused this time round been following the models for 4 or 5 years, but at no point can i remember every single chart ive seen point to rain, and have the bbc forecast snow? someone explain where there coming from?

[snowdrifter]

From a purely selfish point of view, is there any chance that the northern edge of the low might extend this far. It seems to have a more northerly aspect as the time gets closer. I guess the lack of snow (esp today's let-down) round here prompts such hope!

Edit: Having used to live in Malvern, Worcs, I wish I was still there atm!

Edited February 8, 2009 by snowdrifter

[Cheese Rice]

Latest BBC update

SK

That forecast was the most useless one i have ever seen, because when they showed the pressure charts at the beggining it showed the percip as far north as Harrogate, but on the forecast they showed it not getting much futher north than Birmigham & the Meto weather warnings cover the whole of Yorkshire/parts of NW england, useless, no clear idea tilla few hours b4 the event !

[cyclonic happiness]

Im completely confused this time round been following the models for 4 or 5 years, but at no point can i remember every single chart ive seen point to rain, and have the bbc forecast snow? someone explain where there coming from?

they have been really shy of getting egg on their faces the met office.

The BBC may be a different matter but they get most of their data from the met and they are a bit mild and rain bias you have to admit.

So if it's still showing snow tomorrow morning, i'll go with that.

After all, if we miss this one there is still alot of cold in the near future coming up that will throw up a few snow events, as most of these have been popping up 48 hours before they come to pass.

[kold weather]

The thing to remember is we have a very stubborn cold pool at the surface and so whilst uppers are marginal thanks to the strength of the front combined with surface cold is making the difference. Also looking very wet in the south, need to watch out for flooding with an inch of rain probable.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

what about stafford in NW midlands, bbc charts look good but bbc beta on the days have monday 1oC and clear sky? they think its staying south

[Totoro]

Interesting graphics there. With the wind strong to gale force, eastern Wales could get a pasting. Drifting snow perhaps.

Perhaps, if the temp is zero or below. Looks to me like wet snow at best on low ground with temps a bit variable, ie a tad above freezing - borderline 'wet' snow, even if it settles, won't drift.

[Mondy]

Check out the speed of the clouds approaching from way out west of Ireland. Makes me think even Jockistan could get caught up in this system - not wind wise, but ppn. Temps are still way cold up here with snow already falling tonight.

http://www.sat24.com/

Also makes me wonder if the system has nudged northwards more than we think?

[tinybill]

Check out the speed of the clouds approaching from way out west of Ireland. Makes me think even Jockistan could get caught up in this system - not wind wise, but ppn. Temps are still way cold up here with snow already falling tonight.

http://www.sat24.com/

Also makes me wonder if the system has nudged northwards more than we think?

bbc weather on bbc 24 are very worried about it

[Albion Snowman]

Check out the speed of the clouds approaching from way out west of Ireland. Makes me think even Jockistan could get caught up in this system - not wind wise, but ppn. Temps are still way cold up here with snow already falling tonight.

http://www.sat24.com/

Also makes me wonder if the system has nudged northwards more than we think?

Thats why the front moved so quickly west to east tonight then! About 1.5 hours of snow and going by that image, its easy to understand why the snow didnt hang around.

[Lakes Tom]

Check out the speed of the clouds approaching from way out west of Ireland. Makes me think even Jockistan could get caught up in this system - not wind wise, but ppn. Temps are still way cold up here with snow already falling tonight.

http://www.sat24.com/

Also makes me wonder if the system has nudged northwards more than we think?

Perhaps a bit of a simplistic way to try predict where this system is going (I appreciate the earth isn't flat!), but if you draw a line from where the system enters the screen at 4.00pm and where it is positioned 8.45pm, it would appear the Northern most edge may actually clip southern Scotland, but certainly Northern England!

[Roger J Smith]

Here's how I think it will play out.

Considerable warm advection as the deep low approaches the Channel will push the rain-snow line to about the M4 in western England and around greater London to the north, then towards Norwich. South of that boundary, precip will be mostly rain and heavy at times through the night, although snow could mix in over higher ground. When the low centre has passed south of the IOW much of the rain will turn to snow inland and begin to mix in greater London area. By the time the low is in Belgium on Tuesday afternoon any precip left over will be all snow.

As to amounts, 20-40 cms could call on Dartmoor, some other higher portions of southern England, while 10-20 cms is likely in parts of Wales (and higher ground in southeast Ireland), and across the Midlands especially south of B'ham to Lincoln. Amounts further north will drop off to about 2-5 cms in Yorkshire and scattered 2 cm falls elsewhere.

Winds will be a big issue across southern England, initially SE 45-70 mph in the heavy rain portion of the storm, then backing to NNE 45-70 mph as the low departs. These winds combined with snow and the snow already on the ground in some areas will lead to blizzard-like conditions. Meanwhile, the heavy rain will lead to some flooding in the greater London area and other parts of the southeast (temperatures there could climb to 8-10 C briefly adding to a rapid snowmelt in some cases).

Winds across France will become extreme and could gust to 90 mph (150 km/hr) in the Bordeaux to Nantes regions.

This is looking like a major impact storm and with temperatures so close to the rain-snow margin, but very heavy precip rates, I think the previous snow cover may be the deciding factor in keeping the thickness dividing parameter higher than usual (up to 530 dm) and favouring heavy snow in some marginal zones.

I don't see any chance of this missing the Channel, and the intensity seems locked in now, so basically, here it comes.

[Hot*Snow]

Perhaps a bit of a simplistic way to try predict where this system is going (I appreciate the earth isn't flat!), but if you draw a line from where the system enters the screen at 4.00pm and where it is positioned 8.45pm, it would appear the Northern most edge may actually clip southern Scotland, but certainly Northern England!

There has been some interesting debate on the north-west discussion about wheher the front and its ppn will actually affect north-west England.

I am sceptical personally but open for debate - What do people here think?

Hot*Snow

[patrickshere]

Here's how I think it will play out.

Considerable warm advection as the deep low approaches the Channel will push the rain-snow line to about the M4 in western England and around greater London to the north, then towards Norwich. South of that boundary, precip will be mostly rain and heavy at times through the night, although snow could mix in over higher ground. When the low centre has passed south of the IOW much of the rain will turn to snow inland and begin to mix in greater London area. By the time the low is in Belgium on Tuesday afternoon any precip left over will be all snow.

As to amounts, 20-40 cms could call on Dartmoor, some other higher portions of southern England, while 10-20 cms is likely in parts of Wales (and higher ground in southeast Ireland), and across the Midlands especially south of B'ham to Lincoln. Amounts further north will drop off to about 2-5 cms in Yorkshire and scattered 2 cm falls elsewhere.

Winds will be a big issue across southern England, initially SE 45-70 mph in the heavy rain portion of the storm, then backing to NNE 45-70 mph as the low departs. These winds combined with snow and the snow already on the ground in some areas will lead to blizzard-like conditions. Meanwhile, the heavy rain will lead to some flooding in the greater London area and other parts of the southeast (temperatures there could climb to 8-10 C briefly adding to a rapid snowmelt in some cases).

Winds across France will become extreme and could gust to 90 mph (150 km/hr) in the Bordeaux to Nantes regions.

This is looking like a major impact storm and with temperatures so close to the rain-snow margin, but very heavy precip rates, I think the previous snow cover may be the deciding factor in keeping the thickness dividing parameter higher than usual (up to 530 dm) and favouring heavy snow in some marginal zones.

I don't see any chance of this missing the Channel, and the intensity seems locked in now, so basically, here it comes.

Wow, that puts us in line for the brunt of it what you're saying anywho.. Have some fairly significant snow cover here still.. Had snow cover for a week now! I've never experienced this in my life. Will be some interesting radar watching tomorrow night to say the least. There's a part of me wanting more heavy snow, and another that wants a return to more normal weather due to the huge inconveniences it's causing with doing anything!

[Mondy]

Perhaps a bit of a simplistic way to try predict where this system is going (I appreciate the earth isn't flat!), but if you draw a line from where the system enters the screen at 4.00pm and where it is positioned 8.45pm, it would appear the Northern most edge may actually clip southern Scotland, but certainly Northern England!

Draw a line indeed :-)

[cyclonic happiness]

Here's how I think it will play out.

Considerable warm advection as the deep low approaches the Channel will push the rain-snow line to about the M4 in western England and around greater London to the north, then towards Norwich. South of that boundary, precip will be mostly rain and heavy at times through the night, although snow could mix in over higher ground. When the low centre has passed south of the IOW much of the rain will turn to snow inland and begin to mix in greater London area. By the time the low is in Belgium on Tuesday afternoon any precip left over will be all snow.

As to amounts, 20-40 cms could call on Dartmoor, some other higher portions of southern England, while 10-20 cms is likely in parts of Wales (and higher ground in southeast Ireland), and across the Midlands especially south of B'ham to Lincoln. Amounts further north will drop off to about 2-5 cms in Yorkshire and scattered 2 cm falls elsewhere.

Winds will be a big issue across southern England, initially SE 45-70 mph in the heavy rain portion of the storm, then backing to NNE 45-70 mph as the low departs. These winds combined with snow and the snow already on the ground in some areas will lead to blizzard-like conditions. Meanwhile, the heavy rain will lead to some flooding in the greater London area and other parts of the southeast (temperatures there could climb to 8-10 C briefly adding to a rapid snowmelt in some cases).

Winds across France will become extreme and could gust to 90 mph (150 km/hr) in the Bordeaux to Nantes regions.

This is looking like a major impact storm and with temperatures so close to the rain-snow margin, but very heavy precip rates, I think the previous snow cover may be the deciding factor in keeping the thickness dividing parameter higher than usual (up to 530 dm) and favouring heavy snow in some marginal zones.

I don't see any chance of this missing the Channel, and the intensity seems locked in now, so basically, here it comes. :lol:

are you sure the midlands may only get an inch? we've just had an inch of snow from this front that's just gone over, surely a system with such potency would produce alot more precipitation?

[MidlandsSean]

are you sure the midlands may only get an inch? we've just had an inch of snow from this front that's just gone over, surely a system with such potency would produce alot more precipitation?

I think you read it wrong, i'm not sure but I read it as

while 10-20 cms is likely in parts of Wales (and higher ground in southeast Ireland), and across the Midlands especially south of B'ham to Lincoln

with Midlands being included in that section. But I did actually check it twice because I wasn't sure Midlands was included in the 2 - 5 or 10 - 20 :lol:

[Lakes Tom]

Draw a line indeed :-)

Curve then! Optimistic Northerner :lol:

[andy_leics22]

That low is worrying North for us Midlanders!

[gornaldo]

when does all this kick off?

This could potentially affect travel in London again no?

[kold weather]

As others have said this looks like an event where various different events could happen, there is the wind event which could well be pretty high in the south, the rain event where we could quite easily see an inch then obviously the big snow event for the midlands area which could give a big amount of snow possibly. So plenty of action in the next 24hrs.