Snow Watch: Midlands & C Southern England

[A.J]

awww wait until tomorrow before giving up!

Nowcasting is the word of the day methinks

Absolutley...lol.....and lets face it, I'm biased because I have to drive tuesday morning and dont want snow

[andy_leics22]

By the sounds of it its all over for us tomorrow now?

I did warn you earlier though, I don't claim to know it all but at least don't dismiss what I said, I was only going by what the models were telling me and quite a few in here were saying that I was having sour grapes because Leicester didn't get as much snow as Northants. Absolute nonsense, I was calling it how I saw it and I did not see snow for anywhere below 200m in the Midlands tomorrow night. I would expect rain to turn to snow during Tuesday morning as the low moves away East and draws colder temperatures with it but before it turns to snow there is likely to be about 20mm of rain and I don't know how any snow will settle on massive puddles, no matter how heavy it is.

[Petemurphyuk]

loads of snow here snowing since 7:45pm and already got a couple of inches reports lm getting its gonna continue snowing toll 9am in the morning time to get the skis out

Edited February 8, 2009 by Petemurphyuk

[MKN]

I did warn you earlier though, I don't claim to know it all but at least don't dismiss what I said, I was only going by what the models were telling me and quite a few in here were saying that I was having sour grapes because Leicester didn't get as much snow as Northants. Absolute nonsense, I was calling it how I saw it and I did not see snow for anywhere below 200m in the Midlands tomorrow night. I would expect rain to turn to snow during Tuesday morning as the low moves away East and draws colder temperatures with it but before it turns to snow there is likely to be about 20mm of rain and I don't know how any snow will settle on massive puddles, no matter how heavy it is.

still hope your wrong lol, despite all the charts backing you up. i give the bbc til 130 tomoz to backtrack quickly otherwise there in for it if it dont snow

[A.J]

I did warn you earlier though, I don't claim to know it all but at least don't dismiss what I said, I was only going by what the models were telling me and quite a few in here were saying that I was having sour grapes because Leicester didn't get as much snow as Northants. Absolute nonsense, I was calling it how I saw it and I did not see snow for anywhere below 200m in the Midlands tomorrow night. I would expect rain to turn to snow during Tuesday morning as the low moves away East and draws colder temperatures with it but before it turns to snow there is likely to be about 20mm of rain and I don't know how any snow will settle on massive puddles, no matter how heavy it is.

Totally agree....thats exactly what the models suggest.......Its simply a guess of waiting and seeing if the later model runs tonight and tomorrow show an upgrade, and simply following the radars tomorrow evening

[Snowyowl9]

Skies are already clearing here after the snowband 1.2c just some reminant stratus floating past expect a skating rink tomorrow.

[NorthantsSnow]

I did warn you earlier though, I don't claim to know it all but at least don't dismiss what I said, I was only going by what the models were telling me and quite a few in here were saying that I was having sour grapes because Leicester didn't get as much snow as Northants. Absolute nonsense, I was calling it how I saw it and I did not see snow for anywhere below 200m in the Midlands tomorrow night. I would expect rain to turn to snow during Tuesday morning as the low moves away East and draws colder temperatures with it but before it turns to snow there is likely to be about 20mm of rain and I don't know how any snow will settle on massive puddles, no matter how heavy it is.

It was this quote that got me a bit "So all this talk of people in Northants with 4 inches of snow still laying...Make the most of it because it will be gone by Tuesday." Sounded a bit like sour grapes and you could have worded that a bit better to not rub people up the wrong way.

Never disagreed with what your interpretation as quite frankly I've never been totally convinced by tomorrow's snow prospects, just that it conflicted with what the BBC/UKMO were saying and they will always be my number one source, even if they do make mistakes from time to time

[andy_leics22]

It was this quote that got me a bit "So all this talk of people in Northants with 4 inches of snow still laying...Make the most of it because it will be gone by Tuesday." Sounded a bit like sour grapes and you could have worded that a bit better to not rub people up the wrong way.

Never disagreed with what your interpretation as quite frankly I've never been totally convinced by tomorrow's snow prospects, just that it conflicted with what the BBC/UKMO were saying and they will always be my number one source, even if they do make mistakes from time to time

Yeh true I suppose that did sound a bit wrong lol. I was only talking the truth though if it does rain because the 4 inches will be washed away won't it?

The problem now with the BBC and Met-Office forecasts from earlier is that the new updated UKMO chart shows what the GFS did. Which is bad news for snow prospects. I would have LOVED to have seen blizzard like snow tomorrow night, I would have been so happy but i'm afraid I just can't kid myself and say it's likely to be snow because it isn't I hope there is an almighty turnaround in tonights charts that move the low pressure about 100 miles further South but it's unlikely. Would be very nice though

[Nick L]

I did warn you earlier though, I don't claim to know it all but at least don't dismiss what I said, I was only going by what the models were telling me and quite a few in here were saying that I was having sour grapes because Leicester didn't get as much snow as Northants. Absolute nonsense, I was calling it how I saw it and I did not see snow for anywhere below 200m in the Midlands tomorrow night. I would expect rain to turn to snow during Tuesday morning as the low moves away East and draws colder temperatures with it but before it turns to snow there is likely to be about 20mm of rain and I don't know how any snow will settle on massive puddles, no matter how heavy it is.

If you are right Andy then the BBC and Met Office are going to have one gigantic egg on their face!

[Yeti]

It was this quote that got me a bit "So all this talk of people in Northants with 4 inches of snow still laying...Make the most of it because it will be gone by Tuesday." Sounded a bit like sour grapes and you could have worded that a bit better to not rub people up the wrong way.

Never disagreed with what your interpretation as quite frankly I've never been totally convinced by tomorrow's snow prospects, just that it conflicted with what the BBC/UKMO were saying and they will always be my number one source, even if they do make mistakes from time to time

Well you have been sour grapes not Andy I feel, I posted a chart because I thought it might be of interest to you on here, what is this, looking objectively at whether it's likely to snow, assessing the different outcomes, or just saying it WILL snow, it WILL!? I posted the ECM chart because it shows the precip quite a bit further N, personally I do want that to come off because at my altitude it would probably fall as snow, but that doesn't mean I can't post it in here. Or are we only allowed to post things that show snow?

It's not "all over" for the Midlands at all, and I would say the S Yorks/N Midlands border at altitude is the best place atm looking at the various different outputs (remember, things can change at the last minute) so there we are, wait and see is what I say because there will no duobt be some surprises in store, good and bad.

[andy_leics22]

Well you have been sour grapes not Andy I feel, I posted a chart because I thought it might be of interest to you on here, what is this, looking objectively at whether it's likely to snow, assessing the different outcomes, or just saying it WILL snow, it WILL!? I posted the ECM chart because it shows the precip quite a bit further N, personally I do want that to come off because at my altitude it would probably fall as snow, but that doesn't mean I can't post it in here. Or are we only allowed to post things that show snow?

It's not "all over" for the Midlands at all, and I would say the S Yorks/N Midlands border at altitude is the best place atm looking at the various different outputs (remember, things can change at the last minute) so there we are, wait and see is what I say because there will no duobt be some surprises in store, good and bad.

Yeti how old was that ECM chart out of interest? I know the ECM only goes to T72 and doesen't come within a more reliable timeframe. So that chart with the low pressure further North would have been T72. It won't be as accurate as the GFS or UKMO at this timeframe but the UKMO has now shifted it further North anyway so it's irrelevant now B)

[Yeti]

Yeti how old was that ECM chart out of interest? I know the ECM only goes to T72 and doesen't come within a more reliable timeframe. So that chart with the low pressure further North would have been T72. It won't be as accurate as the GFS or UKMO at this timeframe but the UKMO has now shifted it further North anyway so it's irrelevant now B)

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkom...208_1200_36.png

If you use this:

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#teg=prec

You can get all the ECM output from T00.

That chart was 36 I think, from today's ECM 12z.

Edited February 8, 2009 by Yeti

[Nick L]

Yeti how old was that ECM chart out of interest? I know the ECM only goes to T72 and doesen't come within a more reliable timeframe. So that chart with the low pressure further North would have been T72. It won't be as accurate as the GFS or UKMO at this timeframe but the UKMO has now shifted it further North anyway so it's irrelevant now B)

On the Iceland site the charts for some reason do indeed go from T0:

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/

Not sure why WZ or NW don't do the same.

[NorthantsSnow]

Well you have been sour grapes not Andy I feel, I posted a chart because I thought it might be of interest to you on here, what is this, looking objectively at whether it's likely to snow, assessing the different outcomes, or just saying it WILL snow, it WILL!? I posted the ECM chart because it shows the precip quite a bit further N, personally I do want that to come off because at my altitude it would probably fall as snow, but that doesn't mean I can't post it in here. Or are we only allowed to post things that show snow?

It's not "all over" for the Midlands at all, and I would say the S Yorks/N Midlands border at altitude is the best place atm looking at the various different outputs (remember, things can change at the last minute) so there we are, wait and see is what I say because there will no duobt be some surprises in store, good and bad.

I have no sour grapes whatsoever, and certainly no problem with you at all except your IMBY attitude. Let's be honest, you posted that chart in excitement because it's an upgrade for your area, even though Yorkshire is not in the Midlands and so it's not really relevant to this thread. Had you explained how it affected this region it would be more relevant. That's all I was getting at.

[Nick F]

I have issued a weather alert for tomorrow and Tuesday:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...ts;reg=3;sess=;

[get my drift]

Totally agree....thats exactly what the models suggest.......Its simply a guess of waiting and seeing if the later model runs tonight and tomorrow show an upgrade, and simply following the radars tomorrow evening B)

I may well be wrong. however, i feel that any where from the cotswolds north will get snow. Some places will get snow from the start and some will have rain that turns to snow later. Snow could well settle on surfaces that are wet through rain as the wet surfaces would turn to ice and snow will settle on ice.

The bigger risk to the areas already mentioned not getting snow would be the low tracking further south. The models may well not be showing this at the mo but with a storm like this it will be a little unpredicitable. It is not many days ago when the south west got a dumping from a system that was said to be more likely further east.

What is fairly sure is that down here we are likely to get heavy rain and very strong winds. I for one are looking forward to the middle of the week and all be it that it will be cold it should be a lot calmer.

[mackerel sky]

Yeh true I suppose that did sound a bit wrong lol. I was only talking the truth though if it does rain because the 4 inches will be washed away won't it? B)

I'm not arguing with you about tomorrow night either, its just the 4 inches you talk about, somewhat poo-pooing the amounts we've had, with photographic evidence to back it up, in this thread. Before it starting snowing tonight there was an undisturbed 6-7 inches still - and we've had another inch so far tonight.

[andy_leics22]

Wow that ECM does actually go to T00! Thats awesome so it's another model we can use for a short timeframe B)

Yes it does place the low further North, gahhh!

[Nick L]

Wow that ECM does actually go to T00! Thats awesome so it's another model we can use for a short timeframe

Yes it does place the low further North, gahhh!

Lol you seem genuinely excited :lol:

It does pose the question though, why is it only the Icelandic Met Office that shows it?

[andy_leics22]

I'm not arguing with you about tomorrow night either, its just the 4 inches you talk about, somewhat poo-pooing the amounts we've had, with photographic evidence to back it up, in this thread. Before it starting snowing tonight there was an undisturbed 6-7 inches still - and we've had another inch so far tonight.

Only 6 inches for you though in a rural area. Northampton built up areas I bet only had a few inches left before tonights fresh snow. Here where I am in Leicester I don't live near the City Centre but most of the snow melted that we got earlier in the week because temps today rose up to 3.5c, if temperatures didn't rise to 3c or above in Northants today i would be very surprised. There must have been a fair bit of thaw in built up areas of Northampton.

[Bolton67]

I have issued a weather alert for tomorrow and Tuesday:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...ts;reg=3;sess=;

Thank you Nick.

with that report , i could be putting my feet up or driving around the east midlands all day :lol:

[NorthantsSnow]

I have issued a weather alert for tomorrow and Tuesday:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...ts;reg=3;sess=;

Eh up, this sounds good:

Weather During Monday, heavy rain will spread N across SW and southern counties of England by midday, during the afternoon as the rain spread northwards it will turn increasingly to snow by the evening inland across Wales, the Moors of SW England, and areas mainly north of the M4 and the Home Counties including the Midlands, and parts of East Anglia, and the southern half of northern England. The northern extent of the area likely to see snow is a little uncertain but perhaps no further north than a line between Liverpool to Scarborough. Snow across these areas will likely continue into Tuesday morning before slowly clearing from the west. Areas mentioned that are likely to see snow may expect accumulations by Tuesday lunchtime of 5 to 15cm, perhaps up to 15 to 25cm over the hills of Wales, The West Country, Midlands and moors of SW England.

Confidence 80%

I hope you are right Nick. Needs monitoring closely but that sounds very much like what the BBC/UKMO are currently saying :lol:

[Bolton67]

Only 6 inches for you though in a rural area. Northampton built up areas I bet only had a few inches left before tonights fresh snow. Here where I am in Leicester I don't live near the City Centre but most of the snow melted that we got earlier in the week because temps today rose up to 3.5c, if temperatures didn't rise to 3c or above in Northants today i would be very surprised. There must have been a fair bit of thaw in built up areas of Northampton.

No thaw whatsoever andy.

a staffordshire poster on here even posted that he was in northampton today and was amazed.

[NorthantsSnow]

Only 6 inches for you though in a rural area. Northampton built up areas I bet only had a few inches left before tonights fresh snow. Here where I am in Leicester I don't live near the City Centre but most of the snow melted that we got earlier in the week because temps today rose up to 3.5c, if temperatures didn't rise to 3c or above in Northants today i would be very surprised. There must have been a fair bit of thaw in built up areas of Northampton.

Temps maxed out at 2.8C but there's been very little thaw in all honesty even here in a built up area of Northampton.

As many of you here know because it's my default snow shot location, I live opposite a school and the adjacent field has inches of untouched snow on it. Same can be said for the end of my back garden.

[mackerel sky]

Only 6 inches for you though in a rural area. Northampton built up areas I bet only had a few inches left before tonights fresh snow. Here where I am in Leicester I don't live near the City Centre but most of the snow melted that we got earlier in the week because temps today rose up to 3.5c, if temperatures didn't rise to 3c or above in Northants today i would be very surprised. There must have been a fair bit of thaw in built up areas of Northampton.

Yes - it was thawing quite a bit before the snow came along this evening. And it may continue after it stops (which it nearly has) until the skies clear. So at the minute we are back upto 7 inches. In the town centres, I agree that there is less than that. Managed a max of 1.8C today, 3pm.

Despite I suspect it will be rain (or sleet) up until the early hours of tomorrow morning, the temperatures are still progged pretty low. But before then, we will still see a similar thaw to today before a clearer picture emerges. Then, I might see 4 inches or less washed away!