Snow Watch: North West England

[grab my graupel]

Please carry on :lol:

[snowdrifter]

I'll start by asking again - our chances for tomorrow's storm - anyone?

[iand61]

Cirrus

Group: Members

Posts: 82

Joined: 3-February 09

From: Kingsthorpe,Northampton

Member No.: 9,498

I'm gobsmacked to be honest ...

Here in Northamptonshire we always miss the worse of the weather, but this week, god knows why we are the worse hit. 16inches !!!!!!!!!!!! for god sake.

Post is for Iand61

This post has been edited by Lancs_Northants: 7 minutes ago

--------------------

Megson...OUT!!!!!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

I'll start by asking again - our chances for tomorrow's storm - anyone?

From a model point of view i would say that we stand a fair (nothing more than that) chance of seeing something from it.

Certainly the more southern parts of the region could get something out of this event.

if i was to pinpoint an area where snow may become a serious problem it would have to be the Peak District.

A more southerly location and altitude should give it advantage over the rest of us.

I would, purely from a selfish point of view, hope that the South Pennines got a complete pasting but the more sensible side of me thinks that it will not happen.

On the whole i feel that the North West is once again going to miss out on anything major.

[swainclubber]

I'll start by asking again - our chances for tomorrow's storm - anyone?

18z just comin out now mate

18z just comin out now mate

wow so far its higher up..but not heavy precip

Edited February 8, 2009 by swainclubber

[Backtrack]

If those winds strengthen, We could get a good inch or two out of this.

[snowdrifter]

wow so far its higher up..but not heavy precip

...better than going south with no ppn I guess, and it is the 18z - could be better still. Almost at the nowcasting stage. Don't like the temps for my area but that goes with the territory.

[Hot*Snow]

From a model point of view i would say that we stand a fair (nothing more than that) chance of seeing something from it.

Certainly the more southern parts of the region could get something out of this event.

if i was to pinpoint an area where snow may become a serious problem it would have to be the Peak District.

A more southerly location and altitude should give it advantage over the rest of us.

I would, purely from a selfish point of view, hope that the South Pennines got a complete pasting but the more sensible side of me thinks that it will not happen.

On the whole i feel that the North West is once again going to miss out on anything major.

Excellent post ian.

[swainclubber]

...better than going south with no ppn I guess, and it is the 18z - could be better still. Almost at the nowcasting stage. Don't like the temps for my area but that goes with the territory.

yeah it is still early days and i am still expecting nothing so anything will be a bonus

[toggerob]

...better than going south with no ppn I guess, and it is the 18z - could be better still. Almost at the nowcasting stage. Don't like the temps for my area but that goes with the territory.

Lets not forget its still out in the Atlantic and yet to undergo Cyclogenesis, so a eventual change in the system even 40 miles north than what the models are showing now would be favourable for the Northwest (especially for Cheshire, Manchester and the Peak District.)

[LiverBird]

If those winds strengthen, We could get a good inch or two out of this.

When I posted this afternoon, another poster said they would rather the snow didn't come at all if it wasn't going to stick/last long. Well our snow fall last about an hour, barely covered anything, and disappeared again less than an hour later. It was disappointing to say the least after us all getting excited.

I understand where the other person (sorry I can't remember who!) was coming from now. I've noticed over the years that when snow is predicted for the North West, it doesn't necessarily mean Liverpool will get it. And when it is predicted in Liverpool, it doesn't always include South Liverpool! One of the hazards of living right next to the Mersey I guess!

I hope you all get whatever weather you are wishing for this week, but I think it's time I stopped looking for it, and I might get a nice, unexpected surprise!

[James M]

Well if it does reach us, it's still looking a bit marginal for low levels and the coasts.

[swainclubber]

Lets not forget its still out in the Atlantic and yet to undergo Cyclogenesis, so a eventual change in the system even 40 miles north than what the models are showing now would be favourable for the Northwest (especially for Cheshire, Manchester and the Peak District.)

i've seen that term used but never looked into it, what does it mean please mate?

Edited February 8, 2009 by swainclubber

[iand61]

Sorry guys but no amount of wishing and hopecasting will change what will happen.

We may get serious amounts of snow, we may get nowt.

We may even sit here with our sweet nothings while BBC News 24 tells us gloatingly that the South is once again buried under 2 feet of snow.

What happens is out of our hands but within the next 48 hours we will know whether it was our turn or not.

Ian

[snowdrifter]

i've seen that term used but never looked into it, what does it mean please mate?

The actual formation and development of a low pressure system (I think that's accurate anyway)

[swainclubber]

The actual formation and development of a low pressure system (I think that's accurate anyway)

cheers

[Liam J]

the lp at the moment has not deepened to the forecasted intensity, the 18z run should give a good idea on the northern extent of any ppn and the 06z monday will be even better still, we had a few hours on snow here in west cumbria today

started heavy maybe 1cm on grass but it soon turned light temp currently 1.2c very fine snow every now and again

[Verglas]

we had light snow until mid afternoon but not sticking below about 500ft, by the look of the prediction for the week we will be more or less dry all week, nothing except 'very light' showing, but weather forecasts are notoriously unreliable, aren't they !

[toggerob]

The actual formation and development of a low pressure system (I think that's accurate anyway)

Yep, basically the transition from when the Low turns itself from the Barocyclonic Leaf (the mass of cloud formed from when the moisture is initiated over the Atlantic) into the Cyclonic Anticyclone itself as it begins the transation into the low pressure system from the formation of the frontal system and begins to wrap around forming the Hook and classic "frontal-system" shape.

Often than not its not the Frontal system itself that causes the severe winds but the pressure gradient on the SW flanks of the Hook, of course however embedded within the system can be CBs that bring upper level winds to lower regions from the pressure gradient and cause straight-line wind gusts which can often be confused for tornadic damage.

The pressure gradient is also responsible for storm surges and the sting-jet phenomenon which is the caused by the Low riding on the Jestream and carrying the upper-level winds to ground-level as the gradient drops and can give sustained winds of up to 100+mph over a central track spanning many miles.

A bit in-depth but I just thought I'd share a bit of Knowledge ive picked up over the years.

[swainclubber]

Yep, basically the transition from when the Low turns itself from the Barocyclonic Leaf (the mass of cloud formed from when the moisture is initiated over the Atlantic) into the Cyclonic Anticyclone itself as it begins the transation into the low pressure system from the formation of the frontal system and begins to wrap around forming the Hook and classic "frontal-system" shape.

Often than not its not the Frontal system itself that causes the severe winds but the pressure gradient on the SW flanks of the Hook, of course however embedded within the system can be CBs that bring upper level winds to lower regions from the pressure gradient and cause straight-line wind gusts which can often be confused for tornadic damage.

The pressure gradient is also responsible for storm surges and the sting-jet phenomenon which is the caused by the Low riding on the Jestream and carrying the upper-level winds to ground-level as the gradient drops and can give sustained winds of up to 100+mph over a central track spanning many miles.

A bit in-depth but I just thought I'd share a bit of Knowledge ive picked up over the years.

cheers for that !!

[SP1986]

Im going to get told off for this but I couldnt resist...

the new promotional tourist video for the Northwest of England

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdgcSt07YPI...feature=related

[Dingwantssnow]

Errmm Thats not the vid i was expecting...either very dry or you got the link wrong?

[jembutler]

I think he means that gorrilla has had more snow than us!! :lol:

[SP1986]

I think he means that gorrilla has had more snow than us!! :lol:

Precisely :lol:

We need humouring in these times.

Our day will come.

In the mean time a nice humid tropical southwesterly wouldnt go amiss!

[Dingwantssnow]

Oh :lol: :lol:

[simon mcfc]

Its started to snow here again but the flakes are so small it might aswell not bother.