Snow Watch: North West England

[NorthWest_Snow]

I dont think we'll be getting those intense echoes, even if it didn't die off by the time it reached us.

I dont think much of todays/tonights event to be honest, some places will get snow but along the coast it's a big ask given the temperature and dewpoint today far exceed the limits of what is needed.

Current temperatures 3.7C with current dewpoint of 1.5C

As for tomorrow there are warnings out for NW England and Merseyside is left out thats either because we should miss the precipitation, or it should fall as plain old rain.

But hey it's another sunny day today :lol:

It must be an absolute nightmare to do a regional forecast for merseyside. I reckon the furthest this line is going to reach is likely north cheshire/extreme south merseyside. Hunts cross is probably in all likelyhood going to be it's furthest reach..and more to the east than the west..but i think this is still going to be all snow on its north side as long as it cools down..rural areas like hunts cross, speke and halewood, halebank and hale and places east no probs i think but anywhere surely cant be ruled out possibly away from the coast :lol:

Edited February 9, 2009 by NorthWest_Snow

[Snow free zone]

There is actually a scientific meteorological reason for this. Because the Northwest of England is sheltered it's dewpoints tend to be lower in winter, so therefore on lower ground it tends to miss out on low dewpoint precipitation bands which are usually broken up by the drier air. This doesnt occur to areas like the Pennines and high ground though usually, because their temperatures are much lower, consequently nearer to their dewpoint meaning a more moist environment resulting in snow.

In summer here we do about as well as the winter, usually we struggle to get much rain here in Wirral in the summer so we miss out on storms and the like, because our air is too dry then, again due to shelter. We only seem to get any appreciable rain in Autumn.

Thanks for that explanation, i had often wondered why we do seem to miss out more often then not. The best bet for me here anyway seems to be a polar NW'erly with plenty of associated showers and very cold air, this can provide us with a really good dumping. Yesterdays snow has almost gone, still a bit on the grass but it will go when the sun hits soon. At least we had a bit.

[Solar Cycles]

Good post.

I am also sick of so many miserable and bitter people on this forum (one in particular i have noticed) There are advantages and disadvantages of living everywhere. I think we are lucky to have got what we have had, considering what we had last year and for a while really.

I think we will get some later. But I hope that the 'Victor Meldrew's of this forum stay off. So we can go on and find out how much everyone has got in the northwest, instead of reading their embarrassing posts. The grapes are very sour on here.

Rock on NorthWest_Snow

Is it safe for me to post whitewitch? I'm not bothered about the south, just my backyard! :lol:

[James M]

I wasn't on about you Stephen. I have noticed your posts contain humour and I enjoy a bit of sarcastic light banter myself. Some people can be quite venomous on here. I have wanted to write on here a couple of times, but haven't because of certain people. It shouldn't have to be like that. However, it seems like this is the way it is on forums unfortunately. I have had it on Digital Spy and my 16 year old daughter has had some right arguments on a World of Warcraft forum. Can't be bothered with it really.

I found that if some posters are bothering you, you can put them on ignore and you won't see their posts.

[whitewitch]

Is it safe for me to post whitewitch? I'm not bothered about the south, just my backyard! :lol:

It is safe.

I found that if some posters are bothering you, you can put them on ignore and you won't see their posts.

Thanks James - I didn't know that

[NorthWest_Snow]

It is safe.

Thanks James - I didn't know that

hehehe

quite telling

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html

the outer clouds are almost here as sleet

Edited February 9, 2009 by NorthWest_Snow

[SP1986]

I'm not very clued up when it comes to historical events, but I've notice in the northwest this is generally what happens.

Wind/air direction from:

North: We always do quite well from the north, most of the region does get affected, however usually it's a dusting more than anything else as snow bands tend to be quite narrow. We find that by the time the precipitation has gone further it has developed more widely resulting in heavier snowfalls for the Midlands, and more Southern areas.

Northeast: Again difficult for the west to achieve anything but up to the north of the region, places like Carlisle and Penrith can often get good covering in a northeasterly. Hilly area of the east part of the region tend to do okay. The west again will largely stay sunny and very frosty more often than not.

Northwest: Arguably the best direction for the northwest. The northwest best frontal snowfalls have come from the northwest with no topographic feature to stop it, places like Chester, Manchester and general Lancashire do well. Merseyside can either have heavy snow, sleet or rain depending on the temperature. Usually very borderline near the coast.

East: This can be effective in the east of the region, mainly because the towns to the immediate west of the Pennines can achieve snow due to orographic lift circumstances, however once onto lower ground further west this recedes completely. It would be suggested that the very defined hilly nature of the Pennines (being steep) favours areas like Oldham, and into W Yorks. There are rare significant snowfalls from the west if an Atlantic front stall over the region in a battle against easterly air. The last best example of this is March 12th 2006.

West: The best direction of precipitation, unfortunately the most borderline in terms of precipitation type. The precipitation is usually plentiful and can stall on the pennines means areas in the east of the region can clock up big amounts. Unfortunately due to the nature of direction off the sea snow off this direction is borderline in the east of the region and rare in the west coastal parts of the region

Southwest: Usually a mild direction but given the right conditions the more north areas of the region can benefit from heavy snow on a transitional snow-rain event. In more coastal and southern areas of the region, precipitation is either short in supply or it is too borderline depending on the Welsh mountains and the sea respectively.

South: Usually precipitation struggles to reach us from the south, however limited chances usually occur in the south of the region due to Channel low oppurtunities, yet sometimes these can fall as rain. The north of region usually escapes these events.

I would guess therefore that significant snowfalls in the past relied on either snow from the NW or stalling snow from Atlantic front coming up against an easterly airmass.

It really shows how many factors have to be in place for snow to fall in our region, and how as you'd expect the east gets the best of it!

[NorthWest_Snow]

and add this latest sat image -> a little bit clearer http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=g...r&type=loop

[Snow free zone]

Good post Stephen.

The most notable recent snow events i can remember were the cold NW'erly on Christmas day in 2004 (?), and the frontal snow in 1996 that came up against cold air.

This winter there have been too many snow to rain fronts from the West, meaning that most areas East of the M6 and with a bit of altitude do ok, whilst the lower ground to the West and nearer the warming influence of the sea miss out. Having said that there has been more snow where i work near Lancaster this year than there has in Preston and this area is closer to the sea than i am at home. There is snow on the ground here at the moment (just)

[Bartlett Low]

I'm not very clued up when it comes to historical events, but I've notice in the northwest this is generally what happens.

Wind/air direction from:........

It really shows how many factors have to be in place for snow to fall in our region, and how as you'd expect the east gets the best of it!

A great post. I've been contemplating this on a few occassions recently. The only decent direction is the NW'ly when the cold air has not been modified much over sea. a la Xmas 2004. -5 upper air in a NW'ly and bingo!

[Louise]

I'm not very clued up when it comes to historical events, but I've notice in the northwest this is generally what happens.

.......

It really shows how many factors have to be in place for snow to fall in our region, and how as you'd expect the east gets the best of it!

Thank you Stephen, that was a very interesting read. I'll save that for future reference I think.

[NorthWest_Snow]

Good post Stephen.

The most notable recent snow events i can remember were the cold NW'erly on Christmas day in 2004 (?), and the frontal snow in 1996 that came up against cold air.

This winter there have been too many snow to rain fronts from the West, meaning that most areas East of the M6 and with a bit of altitude do ok, whilst the lower ground to the West and nearer the warming influence of the sea miss out. Having said that there has been more snow where i work near Lancaster this year than there has in Preston and this area is closer to the sea than i am at home. There is snow on the ground here at the moment (just)

some of our weather is estuary orientated, but we can get snow when places like merseyside dont, turning to rain for example on an easterly quite readily by the time it reaches merseyside even in the great scheme of things just a few miles can make a huge difference.

well now, the sleet is already in southern cheshire and very south wirral

might be interesting for wednesday night for some snow i dont mind a dusting..for me its about the best we are going to get..id rather have that then be stuck in autumn all year like we where in summer last year lol

Edited February 9, 2009 by NorthWest_Snow

[Dingwantssnow]

and add this latest sat image -> a little bit clearer http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=g...r&type=loop

Isa it me or is the majority of that cloud on the northern edge heading this way???

[SP1986]

some of our weather is estuary orientated, but we can get snow when places like merseyside dont, turning to rain for example on an easterly quite readily by the time it reaches merseyside even in the great scheme of things just a few miles can make a huge difference.

Indeed I recall earlier in the winter it was raining here and Chester was getting snow, and I think your area was getting snow too, so it only takes 10 miles to make a difference.

I like the think of snow chances as an inverted (upside down) dome (excuse the pun ) is that area touching the top of the dome or near it are most likely to catch snowfall.

This is theory I imagine when I was in North Wales. The idea was that whilst Great Orme in Llandudno was getting rain despite being circa 250m asl, Chester was getting snow at 10m asl. This suggested there was some kind of coastal issue which regardless of height couldnt result in snow by the coast.

This is why Chester getting snow just 10 miles away back in December was truly fascinating

[NorthWest_Snow]

Isa it me or is the majority of that cloud on the northern edge heading this way???

exactly what i have been saying

and to bare this out, i am including 2 screenshots the first of which is intensity and the next one is precipt gfs type, it should be noted that the sleet has disappeared off the latest image which i suspect is a blip plus this is the latest IR -> http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=g...r&type=loop

Edited February 9, 2009 by NorthWest_Snow

[NorthWest_Snow]

I think merseyside now warrants a warning..more for the higher elevations away from the coast, places like st helens, billinge, wigan, bolton. When I do my projections of where this snow band will end up, i get on its most western flank, cheshire all areas at risk, manchester and greater manchester, places south, the pennines, oldham these places.

I think by seeing things a bit more clearly, even in those places I listed i reckon 2 or 3 cm cant be ruled out at ground level.

Right now it dark grey, and we have light rain off and on but a few snow flakes mixed in. It's not sleet because its more rain than anything else.

[Hail Seizer]

We've got a bit of sleety rain, more rainy sleet here. A case of blink and you'll miss it??

Might be the prelude for something fantastic though? Lets all join virtual hands and say the 'heavy snow prayer'

(nurse...NURSE!!)

[NorthWest_Snow]

We've got a bit of sleety rain, more rainy sleet here. A case of blink and you'll miss it??

Might be the prelude for something fantastic though? Lets all join virtual hands and say the 'heavy snow prayer'

(nurse...NURSE!!)

There will be a decent ish chance for higher elevations for those in merseyside away from the coast such as those I listed above and those more to the east..should imagine winter hill will get a hammering tonight, though lower elevations should not be ruled out but i think the heaviest stuff will be to the east over possibly south liverpool, halton east and south and the pennines..i think the bbc should re issue their forecast because i honestly dont believe they have the track of that lp right.

[louloulou1964]

loads of snow in south east wales .no snow in north wales...loads of snow on snowdon. someone said merseyside was getting some today ????

[NorthWest_Snow]

loads of snow in south east wales .no snow in north wales...loads of snow on snowdon. someone said merseyside was getting some today ????

you need to give the system time to form properly and if there will be anything it will prolly be very much later tonight, not this afternoon..i dont think the whole of merseyside will get hit, those closer to cheshire border greater manchester border at elevation stand a good chance. I cant see the wirral with anything but heavy rain..maybe sleety mush, but we will know more tonight when it gets act together :lol: wednesday merseyside stands a bit of a better chance of snow.

I think n, s an e cheshire are more at risk, even at low levels..depends how much farther north this gets.

actually the stuff in south east wales is currently moderate to heavy rain according to the precip type radar , snow on snowdon has been there for quite a while now and several people have unfortunately lost their lives up there in the last couple of weeks.

throwing temps out

Temp 2.2C now temp prev 4.3C at 12noon

Dew Point 1C prev 2C

Humidity: 93%

Wind Speed: 16 KMH

Wind Direction: ESE (110°)

Barometer: 993 mb

Windchill -1C

things dropping off quite nicely in just a few hours here.

Edited February 9, 2009 by NorthWest_Snow

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Can't see much coming from this guys.Light rain being reported in crewe and that beeb forecast is incredibley frustrating with the band hitting us as light rain beofre it moves back SE turning to snow!!!!

Hopefully things will change for the better but im fully prepared for light rain and amaybe a bit of sleet before the system moves away and leaves us under crappy cloud cover and a thaw of any remaining snow from last week.

rubbish!

[Weather-history]

Light rain falling now, further north and sooner than I expected.

[louloulou1964]

well my friends who live in brynmawr say its snowing and thats just outside cardiff towards the east and they have plenty on the ground and yes Im aware of events in snowdon(everyone knows about it ). so.......

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Light rain here.

[Backtrack]

The reason places are reporting light rain is that a small piece of the band broken off. It is only extremely light and because the colder air is mostly in and near the band, it's falling as rain/sleet

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/...test_radar.html

Edited February 9, 2009 by Hancock