A Question For Next Winter

[Optimus Prime]

My view has always been during winter the maximum ice extent will be closely reached year on year but summer is where the minimum will always be much lower then anything in history.

As callmedick has put, widespread crop failures and food shortages will follow, although I'm inclined to think rather then due to the sun having a heart attack, more to do with unsustainable population growth and over irrigation.

Edited February 9, 2009 by Optimus Prime

[paul tall]

There is actually a danger that the sun could blow up in the next 100 years and if that happens we won't be worrying about global warming or cooling.

Not to worry though, it'll be an instant death for all.

Could happen tomorrow, could be next week, could be 50 years, could even just turn into a red giant in about 4 billion years instead.

[Mondy]

I'm back for seconds! And it's on topic too:

Despite global warming there could be further colder-than-average winters in the years ahead as the climate cools naturally, the Met Office believes.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/...the-winter.html

This is the same Met Office which predicts a "scorcher" of a summer for 2009.

We shall see in both instances.

Solar output/water vapour et al, more than any bleeding CO2 emission are the main drivers here. The Sun is ramping up; it's just taking time, that's all. The switch from SC23 to SC24 is still ongoing

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Even in a warming world, snow will fall but become more and more marginal particularily in winter, this winter has somewhat proved that theory.

OP

In winter 05/06 I'd say yes that sentence could hold. This winter...sorry one word for this winter, cold. This winter has not proved that theory.

Now to answer the original post, I remember 87/88 very well and indeed I was one optimistically looking forward to more cold...but bang it didn't come. My expectations now are no lower than back then..why? Because of the theory/method I use andthe belief in the natural solar and lunar cycles. If I knew then what I know now then my expectations back then would have been lowered for that period. Perturbation cycle of El Nino dominance, +ve PDO phase, solar cycles in high phase [lag effect before some say it has lessened including 23]. Next winter I don't see it being colder than this but at least more in line with average bracket [may have El Nino in place but continued cooling in place].

This winter hasn't heightened expectations as it was 'always' likely to be cold...HALE wnter.

BFTP

[Optimus Prime]

So perhaps we should treat this winter in total isolation and that during a hale winter, it will always be colder with or without warming? I'd agree with that.

I think this winter has proved the marginal theory, many places in the east got rain or sleet instead of snow out of the easterly, and despite very low atmospheric temperatures we never got the cold that was experienced in January 1996 or January 1997. Perhaps an indication of how background warming increases the temperature of cold pools, when spread out over a large area away from it's source.

[Freezing-Point]

In my part of the UK (Newcastle) here are the aspects of winter which have been positive and negative

Positives:

Prolonged cold spells

Ice days

Frosts - Unbelivable amount this winter. Infact I am now suprised when there isnt a frost. Never seen the lakes near here freeze so many times.

Lack of atlantic influence - I can't remember the last double figures

And the negatives:

No real deep cold feed (yet)

Nearly every snow event has been marginal and being on the east coast (8 miles) at 200ft ASL is not a good place to be.

Lack of snow. Its becoming embarrasing now. This area is jinxed. Are we ever going to get a NE'ly as the models keep teasing?

I think its snow that sticks in people's minds as the factor for a good or bad winter. So far in this area its been below average, leaving my expectations next year still very low.

[paul tall]

In my part of the UK (Newcastle) here are the aspects of winter which have been positive and negative

Positives:

Prolonged cold spells

Ice days

Frosts - Unbelivable amount this winter. Infact I am now suprised when there isnt a frost. Never seen the lakes near here freeze so many times.

Lack of atlantic influence - I can't remember the last double figures

And the negatives:

No real deep cold feed (yet)

Nearly every snow event has been marginal and being on the east coast (8 miles) at 200ft ASL is not a good place to be.

Lack of snow. Its becoming embarrasing now. This area is jinxed. Are we ever going to get a NE'ly as the models keep teasing?

I think its snow that sticks in people's minds as the factor for a good or bad winter. So far in this area its been below average, leaving my expectations next year still very low.

How did you fare out of the early december and last mondays event?

[john w]

I cant resist not saying this.

Every dataset has outliers!

Now, I hate the term global warming and the term climate change I hat 20* as much as global warming. If you look at the raw science...removing of course human activity, climates have always varied and infact cyclic activity has been seen to occur in many many many records...be it sea ice, lake mud, rosk erosion, glacial retreat and advance. The only place (and im not 100% sure on this) where climate variation is difficult to show is in the desert and on the seabed....some real experts on here may be able to correct me on the desert idea.

These changes have occurred over 50-100 years...extreme changes can take 10,000 years. If one just had a conceptual model (No Maths) then you have some 50-100 variables that could affect the weather before you have to start thinking for more and CO2 is just one of those variables.

So if this winter is a cold outlier in a warming trend, and I think we can all argua we have seen something of a warming trend, then perhaps next winter I would expect something of a more average winter.

To say this winter contradicts climate change theory is a bit OTT to be honest, quoting that is little extreme.

I remember 2 years ago...just a smidge more actually (I think it was November 2006) we had had in the south east some 18 months of at below average rainfall, (A couple of outliers even in that period obviously). Everybody then said...yarp thats global warming and we can expect more of it...well since then, we have seen very few months with below average rainfall and some groundwater levels in summer 2007 had never been higher. So it just goes to show that you cannot base a whole trend on one event....something I suppose the global warming lovers will be doing in the next few weeks.

I think, as above seems quite broad and not to the point that humans have an impact on the release of chemicals to the atmosphere and I also think the clumsiness in the 20th century in terms of release of cfc's etc did damage our o-zone. However, I think our effect, in the grand scheme of ocean currents, milankovich cycles, sunspots and the stratosphere is too small to give much of an impact.

So what do I expect next winter...a small change from what happened in 2007/8 (Not an extreme which is what happened this year). Whether that small change is in a positive or negative direction is yet to be seen!

[Freezing-Point]

Paul,

Last December was 2 inches of very wet snow, I am very suprised it lay on the ground and was gone after 2 hours.

Last Monday was just cold enough for snow, the lowest temp was 0.5 in the heavier showers. Problem was the feed was not cold enough, unlike Feb 91 when it was -2 in the showers. I got 2-3 inches here overnight which then slowly melted throught the day before the massive let down of the rain on Monday night.

[Essan]

Here's a question: if you lived in Australia, what would your views be on global cooling / an end to global warming?

[Mondy]

Why don't you join up and ask here?

[Polar Front]

Solar activity is next to non existent at the moment with an extended period of low activity between cycles, possibly lasting years. Expect 2008-09 winter as the norm from now on with cool wet summers until sun spot activity picks up.

[Iceni]

Paul,

Last December was 2 inches of very wet snow, I am very suprised it lay on the ground and was gone after 2 hours.

Last Monday was just cold enough for snow, the lowest temp was 0.5 in the heavier showers. Problem was the feed was not cold enough, unlike Feb 91 when it was -2 in the showers. I got 2-3 inches here overnight which then slowly melted throught the day before the massive let down of the rain on Monday night.

Even this winter, which has been cold, isn't a patch on the ones I remember from my childhood.

They weren't all wall to wall snow, December to April... but there was a basic chill in the air most of the time. You always needed a warm coat and a warm jumper anytime you were outside, and there are details like the milk freezing in a the hour between the milkman delivering it and it being brought inside with the frozen cream pushing the cap off — you had to be fast in those days or the blue tits would be pecking at it .

If you consider how much more the average person and home consumes in energy and fuel compared to the 50's when washing machines or TVs weren't common and fridges were just about becoming normal household kit, plus less than half the UK population had a car. What's happened in the last 50 years is bound to have made a difference as scientists doing ice core samples have proved time and time again.

Edited February 9, 2009 by Iceni

[Stratos Ferric]

We have to be realistic and realise this could be a one in 20 years winter. If so, we're still in trouble. If so, it'd have been colder and more extreme 20/40/60 years ago.

There's just no way you can think "this is the start of the normalisation of our climate" on the evidence of one cold winter.

I agree though, that this winter could give you heart and make you think "well even in the recent warming climate, a cold winter is still possible, so it can happen again", so there is that to cling onto - but the million dollar question is "is this a one off not to be seen for another 2 decades and is there going to be 19 average and mild winters in between?"

I think I'd need a decade - with 5 colder than 71-00 average winters to convince me that things have levelled off.

This winter is nature's equivalent of the loading of the gambling machine to pay out occasionally: nothing draws the foolhardy in like continuous random reinforcement. Slight flippancy aside, it really is too soon to tell.

This winter is wintry by modern standards, but not exceptional alongside events of the 60s-80s. I have also posted in the CET thread stats for Hale winters: interpret those as you will, but they set this winter in the context of others in what seems like a robust and reasonably well established cycle of cold.

The genuinely noteworthy event next year, irrespective of the fact that this year is likely to be one of the two warmest Hale winters on record, would be for winter to come in colder than this. Personally I suggest it would be very unlikely at any time; against a background nudging 1C warmer than the 70s-80s it's highly unlikely that next winter will come in anything other than warmer, though I'd love to be wrong.

I find it funny when people say this winter is a one in 20 or 30 year event. It can realistically happen any year, as many times within 20 years as it wishes. We cannot pan down winters ahead....its a raffle, and so many scenarios are possible. So long as the synoptics are right we could see cold winters outrun warm or the complete opposite. However with global warming or at least the effects of our pollution and population severe winters are becoming less severe.

You've succeeded in one brief paragraph to argue forcefully both sides of the argument. If we're warming so that cold becomes less severe, then all other things being equal cold winters will become less frequent. One of the clear patterns in recent years is that cold winters, and cold months, are becoming far less frequent.

[osmposm]

global warming isnt happenning i think people claimed this before about 100 years ago and look what happened so as far as i am concerned even larger teapot Is Over

Some punctuation might clarify what it is you're trying to say.

Thank you

Ossie

[osmposm]

The sea ice extent is pretty much the same as 1993, 1996, 1997, 2000, 2005, 2006 and 2007. Indeed, the red line is rising again so has clearly "beaten" 2006, 2007.

Rather depends on what/whose measure you take, DXR. According to the NSIDC chart here http://www.nsidc.com/data/seaice_index/ima..._timeseries.png it's currently at just about the same level as 2007, and 2007 had further growth to come. By the NSIDC one it is also still around 2.25 m sq km below the 1979-2000 mean. Even using your (IJIS) chart there's no way of knowing how it will end up compared to 2003, 2004 & 2008, it's zigzagging around all over the place as it always does; and it's worth remembering that the more extreme line movements - up and down - are often adjusted within a few days....at least they are on the NSIDC graph, I had an email correspondence with them on the subject that I posted here. So it might be prudent to wait a few weeks for the clear max before announcing the end of the low-ice situation, and the demise of higher NH temps.

Besides, as we never tire of trying to emphasize, the winter growth in thin first-year ice is - though of interest - surely of less significance than where it will end up at the end of summer? And none of us knows that!

Edited February 10, 2009 by osmposm

[MR EXTREMES]

Delta-X-Ray, the ice extent trend is DECREASING, Arctic temperatures are RISING. Compared to last year at this current time, the ice extent is equal and is still well below average.

Badboy, it wasn't intended to be rude, the post by Snowstorm was a load of tosh. We had this same discussion in 2005/2006 about the cooling trend in a possible extended period which as it happened came to a sudden end during late Spring and Summer.

This winter has been a lot colder then recent years (unless something unbelievable happens during the second half of this month) but we still didn't get decently lwo temperatures from the easterly just gone, but it was still cold enough for snow. Even in a warming world, snow will fall but become more and more marginal particularily in winter, this winter has somewhat proved that theory.

i do agree i apoligise.

got something intresting to read here although its not always correct only time will tell.

http://www.tmgnow.com/repository/solar/lassen1.html

Here's a question: if you lived in Australia, what would your views be on global cooling / an end to global warming?

i feel there has been much more blocking in both north and south hemisphere the current blocking in austrailia is standing its ground dragging hot air around with the heat not able to go anywhere,

id say its no different that the heatwave here in 1975 or infact any heatwave we have here.

as the northern hemisphere has been fairly blocked most of the winter dragging in colder air then trapping it.

i think it could be a normal cycle with perhapes influence from sun activity although im no expert so i cant say for sure.

[Solar Cycles]

I see the warmist are using the same old tired cliches and data. Fact, Deltas Arctic graph is right. Fact, there has been no warming since 1998. Fact 2008 the coldest year this century. Fact, this winter the coldest since 1995/96, and could still come in even colder! As for the bush fires down under, nothing new there. After all that's weather not climate! Case closed, thank you!!!

[osmposm]

I see the warmist are using the same old tired cliches and data. Fact, Deltas Arctic graph is right. Fact, there has been no warming since 1998. Fact 2008 the coldest year this century. Fact, this winter the coldest since 1995/96, and could still come in even colder! As for the bush fires down under, nothing new there. After all that's weather not climate! Case closed, thank you!!!

Mind closed, thank you.

Did you bother to read my post, SC? Do you have any comment on what I wrote, as opposed to what you think I wrote - or about the NSIDC graph I linked to? You are also bizarrely mixing global stats with CET ones - and so arbitrarily that it's hard to know if your "facts" are true or not. And anyway, I thought we were talking about the British winter, this is not the general Climate Change forum/discussion. But let's look at your "facts".

Delta's Arctic graph is right? What, and the NSIDC one http://www.nsidc.com/data/seaice_index/ima..._timeseries.png is wrong - you know this, do you?

No warming since 1998? Where? 2005 was the warmest year globally, followed by 1998. See here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record_since_1880 . IN CET land, 2006 was the warmest year. See here: http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley...av_temperat.htm .

2008 the coldest year this century? Not in the CET record - 2001 was cooler. Globally, yes....in all of 8 years: the century is young, and you only have to go back to 2000 & 1999 to find colder global years.

So the only "fact" that really relates to this thread is the last one. We do indeed seem to be in - so far - the coldest CET winter since 1995/96, not a particularly cold winter by historical standards. In between we've had twelve winters on the trot that were average-to-very-mild. I'm sure you know the proverb "one swallow doesn't make a summer". Perhaps this winter is the start of a new trend - but neither you nor I nor anyone else knows yet if that is so.

Unlike you and DXR both my last post and this one end in a phrase acknowledging uncertainty. How refreshing it would be to read a similar phrase at the end of one of yours.

Ossie

Edited February 10, 2009 by osmposm

[Nick L]

To be honest, even if global warming does exist, we are due a severe winter at some point. This winter has been COLD, nothing severe though. We WILL get a very cold winter at some point in the future, global warming or not - I am sure nobody in the right mind denies that.

My expectations for next winter? I haven't got a clue.

[Mondy]

Have a little look here also Os.

[osmposm]

Not quite sure what you want me to look at, Delta. The image....or delve deeper into the figures to be found somewhere else on the site?

I am very happy to take the IJIS site graph you showed before as representing one measure accurately and honestly, subject to later tweaking, and that re-growth of ice (of some thickness or other) is substantial, and comparable with/ahead of many of the last seven years. The chart on the NSIDC site I linked to before is now also showing the steep rise - ironically just as the IJIS one shows it slowing again! As I've already said, I think it would be prudent to wait until the ice level for the season has definitely maxed before concluding just where it will lie in the league. And I think it would be even more prudent to wait for the summer's minimum before concluding that low arctic ice levels are reversing.

The image you posted shows that the arctic has largely frozen up again, as it always does in the winter. I cannot tell from it whether or not this is noticeably different from other years. One thing I can see, however, is that the Baltic - rather nearer to home when we are discussing the future of British winters - is still woefully under-frozen compared with even recent historical norms. A more detailed map can be found here: http://www.fimr.fi/en/itamerinyt/en_GB/jaatilanne/ (a new map is due later today). It tends to support my impression that NW Europe's winter has been cold in its consistency, but not in its extremity (temperature-wise).

As always, I sincerely hope that this cold winter of ours marks the beginning of a true reversal for our and the world's climate. I fear, however, that it does not - and that similar synoptics in a colder period would have given us far more severe conditions.

[Methuselah]

I see the warmist are using the same old tired cliches and data. Fact, Deltas Arctic graph is right. Fact, there has been no warming since 1998. Fact 2008 the coldest year this century. Fact, this winter the coldest since 1995/96, and could still come in even colder! As for the bush fires down under, nothing new there. After all that's weather not climate! Case closed, thank you!!!

In fact SC, all of your 'facts' are just weather - not only the last. And with the century only eight-and-a-bit years' old, not all that impressive either...

[Phil UK]

Hi Pete! Long time no chat.

Now down to business...

Solar Cycles. When solar cycle is at minimum spottiness (11 year cycle at that! 1998 being the last solar sunspot minimum)

The Earth was starting to cool, right?

2003 : Sunspot activity was at maximum, hence record breaking Summer temperatures in August 2003. (38.5ºc if I remember correctly?)

Late October 2008 : The first and unprecedented snowfall of that Autumn for many places in the UK. Sunspot minimum. The Sun had been blank for most of 2008 officially ending SC23.

Now well into the second week of February 2009. Sun still has no dark zits on it. SC24 will begin at some stage later this year if not the next. But in the meantime, it has been the coldest February for many a year. Enjoy it! Or as certain gov't figureheads said. "Once in two decades of extreme weather." (Hazel Blears on the salt grit crisis!)

As I have learned over the years, Max sunspot activity means a good Summer, Winter can be somewhat diverse. But also add to the fact that La Nina is also very much prevalent.

I rest my case.

Phil.

[TEITS]

My attitude towards next winter is probably the same.

We have seen frequent marginal snowfalls, plenty of frosts, below average CET. So with this in mind you would expect my attitude towards next winter being even more upbeat. However this isn't the case because the same problems which prevent blocking around Greenland/Iceland/Svalbard continue to exist this winter and as a result very cold upper temps have been rare and shortlived.