A Question For Next Winter

[Interitus]

Solar output/water vapour et al, more than any bleeding CO2 emission are the main drivers here. The Sun is ramping up; it's just taking time, that's all. The switch from SC23 to SC24 is still ongoing

The information on that link is easily discredited. Water vapour is a feedback of warming i.e. responds to temperature change, whereas CO2 is a forcing factor causing warming.

In any case as this thread stems from purely anecdotal evidence then here is some more - here in north Cheshire we've had two proper coverings of snow totalling around 3cm and lasting less than 48 hours. That's less than the long term average and similar to some of the record mild winters so global warming is clearly still in full effect.

[Phil UK]

In a sense, I'd agree TEITS.

For example, the Summer that never really was back in 2007. Who would have expected the same to occur pretty much in 2008?

This current Winter is by far the coldest I can recall for many a year which began on Christmas Eve 2008, lasted about two weeks with below CET then back to the normal.

Then 1st February 2009, an easterly blast and well, we all know the rest and is in a sense still ongoing. 10 days so far. Highest temperature I recorded for this month alone was yesterday when it reached the dizzy heights of 5ºc and when you think that Aviemore in Scotland managed to dip to an overnight minimum of -18.4ºc on Sunday night. That's got to tell you something!

I wonder however if it will be a hat-trick of poor and unseasonably cool and wet Summer 2009?

Only time will tell.

Phil.

[memories of 63]

See my Sig!!!

:lol:

[paul tall]

The information on that link is easily discredited. Water vapour is a feedback of warming i.e. responds to temperature change, whereas CO2 is a forcing factor causing warming.

In any case as this thread stems from purely anecdotal evidence then here is some more - here in north Cheshire we've had two proper coverings of snow totalling around 3cm and lasting less than 48 hours. That's less than the long term average and similar to some of the record mild winters so global warming is clearly still in full effect.

I've had about average snowfall this winter but my temperatures are down on the last 5 year average, so clearly global warming isn't in full effect.

Using your argument.

[Interitus]

I've had about average snowfall this winter but my temperatures are down on the last 5 year average, so clearly global warming isn't in full effect.

Using your argument.

Not my argument which is the point, I'm just using the significance of snowfall that other people have mentioned.

Edited February 11, 2009 by Interitus

[Weather-history]

In any case as this thread stems from purely anecdotal evidence then here is some more - here in north Cheshire we've had two proper coverings of snow totalling around 3cm and lasting less than 48 hours. That's less than the long term average and similar to some of the record mild winters so global warming is clearly still in full effect.

With all due respect there is a bit of naivety here.

As I have said before, cold is not a guarantee of snow, you can have winters that are cold overall or at least not mild and have little snow whilst another winter could be milder but you see more snow.

I have not used it all this winter but here is the example I always quote

Winter 1963-64 CET: 3.5

Winter 1993-94 CET: 4.7

Which one was snowier?

Winter 1993-94

[paul tall]

Not my argument which is the point, I'm just using the significance of snowfall that other people have mentioned.

But the snowfall has been very significant in some areas that rarely get significant snow!

[Interitus]

With all due respect there is a bit of naivety here.

As I have said before, cold is not a guarantee of snow, you can have winters that are cold overall or at least not mild and have little snow whilst another winter could be milder but you see more snow.

I have not used it all this winter but here is the example I always quote

Winter 1963-64 CET: 3.5

Winter 1993-94 CET: 4.7

Which one was snowier?

Winter 1993-94

Thanks, but this emphasises the point I was making! I was being deliberately naive in the same way that the heavy snowfalls for some areas doesn't necessarily mean an end to the "even larger teapot" as some are suggesting. The significance that people are attaching to it is exactly the same as I did in response.

Jeez, I wouldn't have thought it would need this much explanation!

[Methuselah]

But the snowfall has been very significant in some areas that rarely get significant snow!

There are also places that would usually expect significant snow, that have only experienced the highly insignificant!

Inverness, for one...

[Phil UK]

Now you Scottish know how us English feel when you lot get all the snow in your area most Winters, Pete.

Has been a good year snow-wise for England, especially London and the SE. And I hadn't too much of a clue as to why until Paul Sherman posted his thread about the Thames streamer recently. I remember watching the news/internet that Sunday night/Monday morning and thinking WTF is happening down there?? Unusual for that part of the UK to see such intense and prolonged snowfall.

Phil.

[david16]

It's what the synoptics are that determines what the weather is going to be like. Stratospheric warming and -ve NAO do mean the Britisn isles are not guaranteed to be just like an atlantic weather island for virtually 3 months Decemeber to February every winter, even if the mild moist atlantic weather with winds from the SW/W/WSW/SSW/S is course the default as we are all well aware.

Some warmists on here dismised the idea that such classic winter synoptics could ever happen again in "so called" modern British winter let alone be sustained. Well what's this weather we've been having? Proves the warmists totally wrong.

I wouldn't be too quick to assume we will be back next winter to days and week on end where in some places it may never fall below +10C both day and night under a continuous blanket of thick grey cloud spread in from the atlantic.

Edited February 11, 2009 by david16

[Phil UK]

Stratospheric warming and -ve NAO do mean the Britisn isles are not guaranteed to be just like an atlantic weather island for virtually 3 months Decemeber to February every winter, even if the mild moist atlantic weather with winds from the SW/W/WSW/SSW/S is course the default as we are all well aware.

Quite correct. 1963 was in fact the complete opposite where winter cold, and indeed in some areas, snow cover lasted from Christmas '62 until March '63. I was born 7 years later so can't really testify as to whether these are just apocryphal stories or what. But from what I've read over the years, 1963 was indeed a very prolonged and harsh Winter.

Phil.

[Neilsouth]

Any evidence to back up that load of drivel? Do you not remember the incredible warm spell from May 2006 - April 2007? 5 months in that period either record breaking or close to record breaking. Also mentioning countless warm records broken, and only a few cold ones (recently October 08')

The current run is most definitely just a blip. Won't be long before we start hammering more warm records. Much of the arctic is still very warm, and sea ice is also low.

How can you call that a load of drivel and post these PREDICTION models yourself as to base that as proof , abit hypocritical no?. This post is almost following the lines of ian brown's even larger teapot theory

[reef]

With all due respect there is a bit of naivety here.

As I have said before, cold is not a guarantee of snow, you can have winters that are cold overall or at least not mild and have little snow whilst another winter could be milder but you see more snow.

I have not used it all this winter but here is the example I always quote

Winter 1963-64 CET: 3.5

Winter 1993-94 CET: 4.7

Which one was snowier?

Winter 1993-94

Indeed, here the comparison can be made from two more recent years.

Winter 2006/07 mean: 6.5C

Winter 2008/09 mean: 3.2C (so far)

As it stands, both winters have had the same amount of lying snow.

Edited February 11, 2009 by reef

[Methuselah]

Quite correct. 1963 was in fact the complete opposite where winter cold, and indeed in some areas, snow cover lasted from Christmas '62 until March '63. I was born 7 years later so can't really testify as to whether these are just apocryphal stories or what. But from what I've read over the years, 1963 was indeed a very prolonged and harsh Winter.

Phil.

No Phil. You are dead right...From boxing Day until mid-March as I recall.

[Gray-Wolf]

No Phil. You are dead right...From boxing Day until mid-March as I recall.

As the weather broke so did mums waters.......lukily I was a home birth.....

[Thundery wintry showers]

But the snowfall has been very significant in some areas that rarely get significant snow!

Exactly- down here in Exeter there has been more lying snow this month, apparently, than in all of the last 7 years put together! Also 55cm at nearby Okehampton is pretty remarkable, even for high ground in the South West.

I think Mr Data's point undermines the "modern winter" stuff anyway, as Winter 1963/64 was cold in most central and southern areas in particular, but not very snowy, and well before the so-called "modern winter" period. Also 1993/94 was within the "modern winter" period (and I remember it being a pretty snowy winter by recent standards in the Tyne & Wear area). Also I don't think Winter 2008/09 has particularly followed the "modern winter" rules anyway- no northerly tracking jet, north and east winds have been able to establish over Britain, and no constant cyclogenesis around Iceland.

For the record, my Cleadon weather records suggest that the period 1 December 2003 to 10 February 2004 delivered a lot more snow to the location than the equivalent period of 2008/09, despite being about 1.5C warmer.

[Nick L]

Indeed, here the comparison can be made from two more recent years.

Winter 2006/07 mean: 6.5C

Winter 2008/09 mean: 3.2C (so far)

As it stands, both winters have had the same amount of lying snow.

Maybe in Hull, but nationwide - certainly not.

[Mondy]

I keep reading that no cooling is taking place, so Winters will remain above normal and stay "Modern". Then I come across this.

LINKY

Then in keeping in line with solar influences, and the fact the Meto say warming will occur after 2014, we see the NASA sunspot prediction chart peaking on or about 2014, which again makes me think solar forcings should not be dismissed so readily.

Edited February 11, 2009 by Delta X-Ray

[stewfox]

:lol:

I spot a bit of a flaw in that statement to be honest.

The trend isn't decreasing then is it, if the ice extent is equal to the same time last year.....the trend in the last two winters is stability is it not?

You'd have been better comparing this years ice extent to that of 20 years ago, rather than comparing to last year when it was the same!

Schoolboy error.

The ice extent is the largest its been this century (that famous red line)

Now we can dismiss that line during the winter and if you like take it as gossple next summer but I dont think you can have it both ways

I concur extent is not as large 20 years ago yet but hardly worrying

[North-Easterly Blast]

Exactly- down here in Exeter there has been more lying snow this month, apparently, than in all of the last 7 years put together! Also 55cm at nearby Okehampton is pretty remarkable, even for high ground in the South West.

I think Mr Data's point undermines the "even larger teapot" stuff anyway, as Winter 1963/64 was cold in most central and southern areas in particular, but not very snowy, and well before the so-called "even larger teapot" period. Also 1993/94 was within the "even larger teapot" period (and I remember it being a pretty snowy winter by recent standards in the Tyne & Wear area). Also I don't think Winter 2008/09 has particularly followed the "even larger teapot" rules anyway- no northerly tracking jet, north and east winds have been able to establish over Britain, and no constant cyclogenesis around Iceland.

For the record, my Cleadon weather records suggest that the period 1 December 2003 to 10 February 2004 delivered a lot more snow to the location than the equivalent period of 2008/09, despite being about 1.5C warmer.

Winter 2003-04 was quite mild overall but had a few cold spells brought by northerlies and no rex block faux cold, and was respectable snow-wise for most areas when compared to winters in the last 20 years. Winter 1993-94 was actually a far snowier winter than 1963-64 despite it being 1.2*C milder for the CET. 1993-94 was definitely one of the better winters of the 90s for most - some cold zonality in December and some easterly spells in February - both of which delivered snow.

[TomS]

My weather records and memory go back to before 1947 (and I mean personally, not just looking things up). Some posters seem to regard the 1980's as the beginning of creation!

Compared with previous cold winters, the current one never seems to been properly established, just hanging on by the skin of its teeth for most of the time, unlike the 'severe' winters of the past 60 years when no end seemed to be in sight unlike the present one which appears to be fading away with a whimper, and not a snowy bang! I remember the end of the 1947 winter on March 15/16th when a big snow 'event' seemed likely before the thaw, but here in Lancs, there was a few hours of light snow, before temps rose on the evening of the 15th and that was the end of it, apart from Scotland, where it took another week or so before the cold air was shifted.

My earliest snowy memories were for late January 1940 when this area had a tremendous snowfall, at the same time as parts of the south and west were having freezing rain. There were no forecasts of course in wartime, but I wonder what the Met.Office would have made of it!

[Stratos Ferric]

My weather records and memory go back to before 1947 (and I mean personally, not just looking things up). Some posters seem to regard the 1980's as the beginning of creation!

Compared with previous cold winters, the current one never seems to been properly established, just hanging on by the skin of its teeth for most of the time, unlike the 'severe' winters of the past 60 years when no end seemed to be in sight unlike the present one which appears to be fading away with a whimper, and not a snowy bang! I remember the end of the 1947 winter on March 15/16th when a big snow 'event' seemed likely before the thaw, but here in Lancs, there was a few hours of light snow, before temps rose on the evening of the 15th and that was the end of it, apart from Scotland, where it took another week or so before the cold air was shifted.

My earliest snowy memories were for late January 1940 when this area had a tremendous snowfall, at the same time as parts of the south and west were having freezing rain. There were no forecasts of course in wartime, but I wonder what the Met.Office would have made of it!

Impressive stuff Tom. Re many on here posting as if the world only began after 1980 I suspect that it's because, for many on here, it did. In the use of superlatives, and some hyperbole, I tend, therefore, to cut some of our younger posters a bit of slack, and that's importnat in responding to a question like this one.

I'm going to hold back with a personal response until we're through March, but right now my take is that it's an impressive winter in any context, and exceptional in the modern series (since 1987). Mr D's stats, although for his own locale only, neatly sum up my own PERCEPTION though. This month is just about at the top table in the recent record, but by no means anything like outstanding or severe.

There has been some short lived intense cold, during the second week in January for example, when temperatures widely got down to -10C an lower, but the prevalence of this has been less marked than in some previous extreme spells. There has been periodic snow, but not persistent snow (as happened in 1963 and 1979, say), and that that fell fell heavily in localised patches rather than widely; "heavy" also came in below 12" in all but a few localised instances, and generally I suspect 6" was closer to the mark - personally I'd file under "moderate".

We have had cold right through since December, but without any staggeringly cold months; two things drive this - the lack of sustained deep cold, and the occasional mild incursions. My own records for 1979 for example, show that from Jan 1 - Feb 21, 5C was breached on only two days. It was frosty on 30 nights in January, and 27 in February. We then had more heavy snow in March, and cover again in April, and at the start of May!

It's too soon to put together a complete post-mortem on the winter; March may provide some interesting footnotes. What we can say is that winter is unlikely to come in as cold as 1995/6 overall (the average that winter was 3.03C, and March came in at 4.5C)

[Yeti]

Impressive stuff Tom. Re many on here posting as if the world only began after 1980 I suspect that it's because, for many on here, it did. In the use of superlatives, and some hyperbole, I tend, therefore, to cut some of our younger posters a bit of slack, and that's importnat in responding to a question like this one.

I'm going to hold back with a personal response until we're through March, but right now my take is that it's an impressive winter in any context, and exceptional in the modern series (since 1987). Mr D's stats, although for his own locale only, neatly sum up my own PERCEPTION though. This month is just about at the top table in the recent record, but by no means anything like outstanding or severe.

There has been some short lived intense cold, during the second week in January for example, when temperatures widely got down to -10C an lower, but the prevalence of this has been less marked than in some previous extreme spells. There has been periodic snow, but not persistent snow (as happened in 1963 and 1979, say), and that that fell fell heavily in localised patches rather than widely; "heavy" also came in below 12" in all but a few localised instances, and generally I suspect 6" was closer to the mark - personally I'd file under "moderate".

We have had cold right through since December, but without any staggeringly cold months; two things drive this - the lack of sustained deep cold, and the occasional mild incursions. My own records for 1979 for example, show that from Jan 1 - Feb 21, 5C was breached on only two days. It was frosty on 30 nights in January, and 27 in February. We then had more heavy snow in March, and cover again in April, and at the start of May!

It's too soon to put together a complete post-mortem on the winter; March may provide some interesting footnotes. What we can say is that winter is unlikely to come in as cold as 1995/6 overall (the average that winter was 3.03C, and March came in at 4.5C)

-10c or below is hardly severe cold, though, considering that the record minimum in England is below -26. When was the last time we reached -15 in England? And even -15 is 11c warmer than the record minimum.

The one thing that has been incredible for me personally this winter has been the amount of days of snow cover - 25 in total so far, including the whole of the past 2 weeks (that's not the 9am Meto definition, and starts from the first day of cover in November). I have never seen that in my memory before - but then like you say, at 18 I'm hardly likely to remember the 80s! In Feb 91 I was 2 months old. But even so, the fact that in a memory of say 14 years this is the first time 2 weeks of snow have been on the ground is pretty impressive. Not only that, but at the beginning of December when we both had a good fall, this also stuck around for about a week I think, which these days is pretty rare.

As to days of snow falling: 24 so far, and the average in Leeming is 28 I believe. According to the Meto we should add on 5 extra days for altitude - I'm 150m higher so let's call that 35 days for this area, aprrox. That means we need another 11 days to break even the average! Which I suspect is very possible considering we have the 2nd half of Feb, March and April (perhaps May and June) but remember that's an average to meet there. Considering that this winter has been a lot snowier than recent winters (a LOT snowier) it puts it into perspective how un-snowy recent winters have been.

[Yeti]

With all due respect there is a bit of naivety here.

As I have said before, cold is not a guarantee of snow, you can have winters that are cold overall or at least not mild and have little snow whilst another winter could be milder but you see more snow.

I have not used it all this winter but here is the example I always quote

Winter 1963-64 CET: 3.5

Winter 1993-94 CET: 4.7

Which one was snowier?

Winter 1993-94

In terms of big snowfalls (1 ft plus) I always quote 2000/01 as having two such events. And yet it was above average to average depending on the benchmark.