A Question For Next Winter

[Stratos Ferric]

-10c or below is hardly severe cold, though, considering that the record minimum in England is below -26. When was the last time we reached -15 in England? And even -15 is 11c warmer than the record minimum.

The one thing that has been incredible for me personally this winter has been the amount of days of snow cover - 25 in total so far, including the whole of the past 2 weeks (that's not the 9am Meto definition, and starts from the first day of cover in November). I have never seen that in my memory before - but then like you say, at 18 I'm hardly likely to remember the 80s! In Feb 91 I was 2 months old. But even so, the fact that in a memory of say 14 years this is the first time 2 weeks of snow have been on the ground is pretty impressive. Not only that, but at the beginning of December when we both had a good fall, this also stuck around for about a week I think, which these days is pretty rare.

As to days of snow falling: 24 so far, and the average in Leeming is 28 I believe. According to the Meto we should add on 5 extra days for altitude - I'm 150m higher so let's call that 35 days for this area, aprrox. That means we need another 11 days to break even the average! Which I suspect is very possible considering we have the 2nd half of Feb, March and April (perhaps May and June) but remember that's an average to meet there. Considering that this winter has been a lot snowier than recent winters (a LOT snowier) it puts it into perspective how un-snowy recent winters have been.

Admittedly there are only ten degrees between freezing and the rough benchmarks I gave, as opposed to sixteen more to the record low, however were one to look at the distribution of minima for any given location then I'd suggest that values lower than -10C are rare indeed. The UKMO will have formal qualitative labels that they attach to temperatures, and this has been discussed on occasion on here somewhere: so far as I recall the most extreme label relative to temperature on any given day is only about 5C wide of the daily average, giving a two tail range of 10C. I haven't check, but I'd reckon certainly 2, and perhaps around 3SDs of data fall within the range, i.e. over 99%. Severe in this case, therefore, is intended to mean "extreme by local standards", rather than absolutely cold.

Re snowfall: the two years for which I (fortuitously, as it happens( kept my own detailed stats were 1978 and 1979.

In 1978 snow fell on 32 days in NW Leeds from Jan-Apr, I don't have data for December but back then it would have been unlikely for the month to pass snowless.

In 78-9 it fell on 62 occasions, every month from November through to May. It lay for 78 days, including as late as the morning of May 4th, and consecutively from December 29th to February 24th.

The individual snowfall that I noted included "about 7"" on December 31st; 15" from the blizzard of January 20-21st; 3" on the 28th; 11" from the blizzards on Feb 12-13th, and 5" more on the 15th; and in March, 13" across the 16-17th. There were various odd days of comparatively slight snowfall, but that lot together amounts to around 54" of snowfall. I haven't had 54" in total in the ten winters that I've lived up here at a much higher, and rural (rather than sub-urban) location. I doubt I've even had 2/3rds of that total.

For the benefit of those with delicate sensibilities I shall never say never, but let's say that I do not expect to see its like again in my lifetime - and those who saw 1963 said 1979 wasn't a patch, which when you see the archive photos and read the stories is beyond sensible debate.

[ribster]

For the benefit of those with delicate sensibilities I shall never say never, but let's say that I do not expect to see its like again in my lifetime - and those who saw 1963 said 1979 wasn't a patch, which when you see the archive photos and read the stories is beyond sensible debate.

I remember good snowfall in 79, but was a 'townie' then, by 87 we lived in a small village in NE Norfolk. Jan 87 was the most impressive snowfall I have ever seen, we were quite literally cut off. I think we had two weeks off school, not because the head was worried about little timmy falling over and getting sued by his parents, but because it was impossible to get there. The A149 was impassable, even for tractors/bulldozers!

Sadly, I think you may be right about not seeing it's like in our lifetimes again, however, we are here for a mere 'blip' in the overall scheme of things, so hardly surprising. Just that if you have lived between the 40s and 80s, you have been rather lucky!

Edited February 15, 2009 by ribster

[Stratos Ferric]

...

Sadly, I think you may be right about not seeing it's like in our lifetimes again, however, we are here for a mere 'blip' in the overall scheme of things, so hardly surprising. Just that if you have lived between the 40s and 80s, you have been rather lucky!

Very much agree.

Oddly enough I recall being with my Dad on his calls in the February of 1978 following the one-off serious storm of that winter in early Feb, the Fri-Sat at the start of half-term I recall. From the bottom of Garrowby Hill (on the A166 between York and Driffield) to the top, a climb of 750' or so onto the Wolds, we went from around 2-3" of snow to a road that had literally been buldozed clear to a single line between the hedges. Apparently it had only opened the day before. Thinking back to my Dad's rota that would have been the Wednesday, so five days to clear, and save for the passage over the Col de la Madeleine last March, the only time in my life I've driven through drifts above the top of the car.

[Yeti]

Admittedly there are only ten degrees between freezing and the rough benchmarks I gave, as opposed to sixteen more to the record low, however were one to look at the distribution of minima for any given location then I'd suggest that values lower than -10C are rare indeed. The UKMO will have formal qualitative labels that they attach to temperatures, and this has been discussed on occasion on here somewhere: so far as I recall the most extreme label relative to temperature on any given day is only about 5C wide of the daily average, giving a two tail range of 10C. I haven't check, but I'd reckon certainly 2, and perhaps around 3SDs of data fall within the range, i.e. over 99%. Severe in this case, therefore, is intended to mean "extreme by local standards", rather than absolutely cold.

Re snowfall: the two years for which I (fortuitously, as it happens( kept my own detailed stats were 1978 and 1979.

In 1978 snow fell on 32 days in NW Leeds from Jan-Apr, I don't have data for December but back then it would have been unlikely for the month to pass snowless.

In 78-9 it fell on 62 occasions, every month from November through to May. It lay for 78 days, including as late as the morning of May 4th, and consecutively from December 29th to February 24th.

The individual snowfall that I noted included "about 7"" on December 31st; 15" from the blizzard of January 20-21st; 3" on the 28th; 11" from the blizzards on Feb 12-13th, and 5" more on the 15th; and in March, 13" across the 16-17th. There were various odd days of comparatively slight snowfall, but that lot together amounts to around 54" of snowfall. I haven't had 54" in total in the ten winters that I've lived up here at a much higher, and rural (rather than sub-urban) location. I doubt I've even had 2/3rds of that total.

For the benefit of those with delicate sensibilities I shall never say never, but let's say that I do not expect to see its like again in my lifetime - and those who saw 1963 said 1979 wasn't a patch, which when you see the archive photos and read the stories is beyond sensible debate.

I agree that below -10 is rare, but if you are in a severe easterly spell (79, 81, 86, 87, 91 etc.) with the -15 isotherm above you, it would be surprising if -15c wasn't reached in at least one place in England. Most of the country covered in snow, so as soon as the wind dies down and the skies clear (which in 2 weeks+ of severe cold is likely) I would say that -15 would be difficult NOT to reach. These days those low temps seem to be restricted to the Highlands. When was the last time England reached -15? A long time is my guess, and yet in the 80s I would put money on this having happened at least once a year in most years (not all). And as I say, even -15 is 11c off the record minimum.

The main reason for this is undoubtedly the lack of cold uppers. Take one of the best months, synoptically, in recent times - Feb 2005. Upper temps rarely, if ever, got to -10. To my knowledge, the last time the -15 isotherm arrived was 91, and in 87 and 56 the -20 clipped Kent. Once these cold uppers have been engrained into the flow over a long period of time, and the air falls slack, severe minima become an inevitability. Sadly, since 1991 we haven't even come close to such a setup - hence the sparsity of decent minima in the C21.

Very much agree.

Oddly enough I recall being with my Dad on his calls in the February of 1978 following the one-off serious storm of that winter in early Feb, the Fri-Sat at the start of half-term I recall. From the bottom of Garrowby Hill (on the A166 between York and Driffield) to the top, a climb of 750' or so onto the Wolds, we went from around 2-3" of snow to a road that had literally been buldozed clear to a single line between the hedges. Apparently it had only opened the day before. Thinking back to my Dad's rota that would have been the Wednesday, so five days to clear, and save for the passage over the Col de la Madeleine last March, the only time in my life I've driven through drifts above the top of the car.

Good times :lol:

And there was I thinking the 1.5m drifts at Greenhow (420m) by the road in the Dales this week were impressive!

[nick sussex]

What has happened this winter hasn't affected my expectations for the next few winters, I'm looking at this from a western european perspective seeing as I still have a great interest in the uk weather but also of course now living in France have to take this into account. Next winter could very well go back to the same old mild patterns that we've seen for recent winters. Down here making a comparison with the last winter it has been much better with several snowfalls, about 9 days altogether of lying snow, not bad for this far south and at 1,250 feet. The most notable thing here was the snowfall in early January and several days below freezing, notably one night it was cloudy and windy and the temp fell to -7c which is good going.

Although the uk winter has been better than recent years it still IMO has failed to see an extended period of time with deep cold upper air with very few occasions seeing sub -10 air. Also the lack of really cold days with even the recent spell seeing temps widely above freezing during the day, on the other hand it still shows that the uk can get some decent snow and all this without proper northern blocking.

If you compare the recent winter to many recent ones, yes its a major change and very unusual, if you compare it to many of the winters I remember when living in London in the past its good but nothing special.

[paul tall]

Whilst it is nice to read stories of 78/79, or 1963, or 1947 etc, we need to bear in mind that these were absolutely exceptional winters and nothing like the norm even in those older days. Nobody is saying this winter is anything like as bad as that, but certainly for some, the 08/09 winter will stand out as one of the best winters in the last 20 years.

[nick sussex]

Whilst it is nice to read stories of 78/79, or 1963, or 1947 etc, we need to bear in mind that these were absolutely exceptional winters and nothing like the norm even in those older days. Nobody is saying this winter is anything like as bad as that, but certainly for some, the 08/09 winter will stand out as one of the best winters in the last 20 years.

I take your point. I think to put this winter so far into one sentence it could be remembered for the length of cold but not the depth of cold and thats really what I was trying to get at. :lol:

[Terminal Moraine]

-10c or below is hardly severe cold, though, considering that the record minimum in England is below -26. When was the last time we reached -15 in England? And even -15 is 11c warmer than the record minimum.

I would argue that widespread values of -10c does constitute severe cold. Although you quote the minimum of -26c recorded at Newport in January 1982 it should be remembered that this was the extreme value at one location and on the same night large swathes of the country recorded minima of -10c to -15c and it was only in the most favoured locations for severe frost that -18c or lower was recorded ; this was on what was, arguably, one of the coldest nights in the last 100 years across England and Wales.

During the coldest period in the winter of 1962/63 when there were several successive days with widespread minima below -10c the Met' Office certainly described the cold as severe. In those days the temperatures were given in degrees fahrenheit and I clearly remember the forecaster solemnly declaring that temperatures overnight would widely fall to as low as 12 or 14 degrees and to below 10f in some areas; the celcius equivalent being -10, -11 and -12 respectively.

On the same nights some places recorded -15c to -18c or lower but it was once the -10c mark was widely breached that the term 'severe cold' was used.

[Yeti]

Whilst it is nice to read stories of 78/79, or 1963, or 1947 etc, we need to bear in mind that these were absolutely exceptional winters and nothing like the norm even in those older days. Nobody is saying this winter is anything like as bad as that, but certainly for some, the 08/09 winter will stand out as one of the best winters in the last 20 years.

That's certainly true for me, BUT the first part to me is a bit contradictory. Yes, they were exceptional winters and nobody is suggesting they were they norm, but they did, at least, happen.

Now the laws of probability allow for a winter like one of those 3 not to have happened since, and so far we could put it down to chance. But the problem is, nothing has even come close - we lack a Jan 87, Feb 91, Feb 86 etc. etc. (Feb 09 doesn't really compare) and what used to occur about every other winter now hasn't occurred since Feb 91.

For me at least, this makes "bad luck" impossible and shows that there must be something else at hand other than fortune.

-10c or below is hardly severe cold, though, considering that the record minimum in England is below -26. When was the last time we reached -15 in England? And even -15 is 11c warmer than the record minimum.

I would argue that widespread values of -10c does constitute severe cold. Although you quote the minimum of -26c recorded at Newport in January 1982 it should be remembered that this was the extreme value at one location and on the same night large swathes of the country recorded minima of -10c to -15c and it was only in the most favoured locations for severe frost that -18c or lower was recorded ; this was on what was, arguably, one of the coldest nights in the last 100 years across England and Wales.

During the coldest period in the winter of 1962/63 when there were several successive days with widespread minima below -10c the Met' Office certainly described the cold as severe. In those days the temperatures were given in degrees fahrenheit and I clearly remember the forecaster solemnly declaring that temperatures overnight would widely fall to as low as 12 or 14 degrees and to below 10f in some areas; the celcius equivalent being -10, -11 and -12 respectively.

On the same nights some places recorded -15c to -18c or lower but it was once the -10c mark was widely breached that the term 'severe cold' was used.

Good point, but whilst 63 had very prolonged cold, at no point did it have an exceptionally severe spell wrt cold uppers such as Jan 87.

My real question is, when was the last time we reached -15 in England?

[Yeti]

PS: btw Stratos, isn't it that 99% of values MUST fall within 3 SDs considering that it will be normally distributed?

Or do you mean something different?

[ribster]

Whilst it is nice to read stories of 78/79, or 1963, or 1947 etc, we need to bear in mind that these were absolutely exceptional winters and nothing like the norm even in those older days. Nobody is saying this winter is anything like as bad as that, but certainly for some, the 08/09 winter will stand out as one of the best winters in the last 20 years.

Don't get me wrong, this winter has impressed, especially for cold, and as I've mentioned before, while I love the snow, it's far more important to me for it to be cold, the colder the better!

[paul tall]

That's certainly true for me, BUT the first part to me is a bit contradictory. Yes, they were exceptional winters and nobody is suggesting they were they norm, but they did, at least, happen.

Now the laws of probability allow for a winter like one of those 3 not to have happened since, and so far we could put it down to chance. But the problem is, nothing has even come close - we lack a Jan 87, Feb 91, Feb 86 etc. etc. (Feb 09 doesn't really compare) and what used to occur about every other winter now hasn't occurred since Feb 91.

Sorry, but that is a bit vague for me.

WHAT used to occur "about every other winter"?

Cold months? Snow? combination of both?

Jan 87, Feb 86, you could also tag on Dec 81 and Jan 82...that was it for SEVERE cold in the whole decade (30 months). Yeah, Feb 91 and 1979 was snowy, but again we are talking about extremes not norms, especially 79. Certainly not "every other year". And besides, this year in some parts has given 91 a run for its money.

1979, it stands out, but that is the winter with the harshest combination of cold AND heavy snow in the last 62 years. So we could call it a one in 62 year event.

[Yeti]

Sorry, but that is a bit vague for me.

WHAT used to occur "about every other winter"?

Cold months? Snow? combination of both?

Jan 87, Feb 86, you could also tag on Dec 81 and Jan 82...that was it for SEVERE cold in the whole decade (30 months). Yeah, Feb 91 and 1979 was snowy, but again we are talking about extremes not norms, especially 79. Certainly not "every other year". And besides, this year in some parts has given 91 a run for its money.

1979, it stands out, but that is the winter with the harshest combination of cold AND heavy snow in the last 62 years. So we could call it a one in 62 year event.

OK I agree it's difficult to draw a line.

But 91 saw the 15 isotherm and very cold uppers for a long time, which we haven't really seen since. 50s to 69; 79 to 91 were all favourable in this respect, and even the in between period (Jan 72?) was favourable in this respect at times.

[azores92]

i think the point is it has been ONE OF THE better winters in the last 20 years or so. 1990/91 was pretty good on the whole; an exceptional february, and the great snowstorm in december. the point is, 1978/9,62/3 and 47 were severe winters. this winter hasn't been consistently severe, nothing like 62/3 which had snow falling regularly from late december through to february. it has had fairly good snow events, but nothing exceptional, except parts of the south west, where extreme drifts were experienced for a time. for some though, born in the 90s, such as myself, this winter will stand out in the top 5 winters in the last 20 years.

Edited February 16, 2009 by azores92

[Weather-history]

I have not used it all this winter but here is the example I always quote

Winter 1963-64 CET: 3.5

Winter 1993-94 CET: 4.7

Which one was snowier?

Winter 1993-94

Another example would be the winter of 1911-12.

CET: 5.1

Yet there were three consecutive weeks of lying snow across parts of the Midlands.