West Pacific/north Indian Ocean Invest Thread 2009

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

No invests.

North Indian Ocean:

93B is moving inland. Significant development is not likely unless it moves back over water.

Invest 94B has formed, in the central Bay of Bengal. The ill defined LLC can be picked out on satellite imagery due to the fact that there is very little convection associated with the system. Waters are very warm in the area, but shear is moderate. Some slow development is possible over the coming days.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

No invests.

North Indian Ocean:

94B is still very disorganised. A broad, monsoonal low is producing deep areas of disorgansied convection which is showing signs of weak rotation. Due to the size and current disorganisation of the low, further development, if any, will be slow.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific;

No invests.

North Indian Ocean:

94B has become slightly better organised today, but it's a slow process. Convection has become a little more concentrated around the developing LLC, with low to moderate shear and warm sea temps allowing the slow organisation. Shear is expected to remain in a fairly steady state over the next day though it's worth noting shear is high to the north of 94B. Further development is possible.

[Cookie]

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO

POOR.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

No invests.

North Indian Ocean:

94B is now rapidly becoming better organised. The LLC is very well defined and deep convective banding warpping around this circulation can be clearly seen in satellite imagery. Dual outflow channels are facilitating more rapid development, along with low shear and hot sea temperatures. 94B is moving slowly northwards and is located in the central Bay Of Bengal. JTWC have issued a Tropical cyclone Formation Alert on the system. There is a good chance we'll have our first TC of the 2009 North Indian Ocean season forming within the next 24hrs.

[Cookie]

94B

[Cookie]

93W

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

Invest 92W formed yesterday, just west of the Northern Philippines. Ever since, it has been battered by shear. This has caused the LLC to weaken and become elongated, along with the convection dissipating. However, shear is now easing and waters are warm enough to support development. Slow development is possible over the next couple days.

Invest 93W has formed, just 3 degrees north of the equator, 3.3N, 144E to be exact. Deep convection is pulsing around a broad LLC. The LLC is having problems tightening up due to the lack of spin near the equator. In addition, moderate shear is impinging on the system. Chances for development into a TC in the near term are poor.

North Indian Ocean:

94B became TC Bijli.

No invests.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates. we seem to be on a quite spell again worldwide.

[Somerset Squall]

Late April and more particularly May is well known to be the quietest time of the year for tropical cyclones. This is because the Southern Hemisphere has died down but the northern Hemisphere doesn't really wake up until June. Doesn't mean there will be no TC's but chances for development are usually at thier lowest around now.

[Cookie]

yup just a waiting game at the moment, its a whole differnt ball game when its Atlantic side for hurricanes that media intrets sky rockets even for the smallest of systems.

btw is 93W getting its act together?

[Somerset Squall]

Yes, the system looks a little better organised than earlier, there are certainly signs of stronger rotation with the system and convection remains quite deep. Shear is still at a moderate level which won't stop development but may slow it down. The system is slowly gaining lattitude aswell, which may account for the stronger rotation, and the further 93W can get away from the equator the better chance it has for development. JTWC assess the system's chances of development as fair.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

93W has become less organised since I last posted. Convection has decreased, and there is no discernable LLC, just several ill defined centers competing for dominance. This is preventing the system from developing. Until a defined LLC can dominate, TC development is unlikely.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

93W has dissipated.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Cookie]

West Pacific:

93W has dissipated.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

you're really trying to spoil my night

[Cookie]

94W

95W

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the images Cookie.

West Pacific:

Invest 94W has formed just east of the northern Philippines. Deep convection is persisting and there are signs of slight rotation. However, there is a distinct lack of an LLC, and the disturbance is located in a moderate to high shear environment. Chances for development in the near term at least are poor.

Invest 95W has formed, 140 miles south-southeast of Yap. Of the two invests in the West Pacific at the moment, this one has more chance of development and looks in better condition. A consolidating LLC is surrounded by slowly organising convection, and there are signs of weak banding features beginning to form. 95W is located in an area of low shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. Further development is possible over the next couple days.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

94W continues to be disorganised. Moderate to high shear is preventing a discernable LLC from forming. The cluster of convection is moving westwards towards the east coast of the Philippines, and is likely to merge with 96W to the west (mentioned later). Therefore, development is unlikely, especially as shear is still moderate to high.

95W persists south of Yap. The disturbance is pushing westwards in warm waters, and low to moderate shear. A small area of intense convection is flaring over a slowly organising LLC. However, there is very little evidence of convectional banding, and the area of precipitation is still rather small. With the favourble conditions, further development is possible, and there is a fair chance of TC development over the next couple days.

Invest 96W has formed, just off the west coast of the Philippines, a hundred or so miles west of 94W. Well broken convection is flaring around a broad LLC, particularly to the south. The disturbance is located in warm waters, but moderate shear (less than what is hampering 94W) is slowing development. Shear is expected to remain in a steady state over the next 24hrs, but further slow development is possible as the system remains practically stationary.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Cookie]

95W

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL

CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[Cookie]

95W

looking good

96W

looking better

[Cookie]

96W

Tropical cyclone formation alert issued

WTPN21 PGTW 292300

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

A 225 NM RADIUS OF 13.6N 117.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-

CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO

BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 292030Z INDICATES THAT A

CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 117.2E. THE SYSTEM IS

QUASI-STATIONARY.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N

117.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 117.2E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM

WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291109Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOW A LOW

LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS CONSOLIDATED AND HAS BEGUN

TO INTENSIFY. IT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE 15-20 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE

LLCC AND INCREASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. UPPER

LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE

LLCC. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY THE ANTICYCLONE,

CREATING A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE

ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED

TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC AND

PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS IS GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY

302300Z.//

NNNN

[Cookie]

A whole lot of lows, 3 for the price of one

[Cookie]

96W

all was looking rosy but sadly no more

WTPN21 PGTW 302200

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//

REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/292251Z APR 09//

AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 292300)//

RMKS/

1. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6N

117.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM WEST-

SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

AND A PARTIAL 301717Z AMSU IMAGE (PLUS RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY)

INDICATE A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DIS-

ORGANIZED, ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS AS WELL AS A DISTINCT

LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BANDING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A

RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGE DEPICT A MORE ELONGATED, WEAKER LLCC WITH 15-

20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. SHIP REPORTS ALONG BOTH THE WESTERN AND

EASTERN PERIPHERIES INDICATED 10-15 KNOT WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 1006-

1007 MB. THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH

WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE

HINDERED BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A STRONGER, LARGER SYSTEM OVER

THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AS WELL AS SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MINIMUM

SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1006 MB. BASED ON THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE

ORGANIZATION AND THE PROXIMITY TO A MORE DOMINANT LOW OVER THE

PHILIPPINES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT

TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.

THIS CANCELS REF A.//

NNNN

94W

95W

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4N

138.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 136.2E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH-

NORTHWEST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

SHOWS THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED ON A

MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE AMOUNT OF

CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE

LLCC IS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT POLEWARD OUTFLOW

IS CURRENTLY BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED ALONG

THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS

ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT

1003 MB BASED ON NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER. THE

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[Cookie]

94W

now a tropical depression

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

94W has slowly moved south over the last day, and is slowly becoming better organised. PAGASA have designated the system as a tropical depression, however, to be blunt, they would upgrade a fart in a bottle to be honest. Both JMA and JTWC do not recognise this system as a tropical depression. However, 94W has the chance to strengthen into a tropical cyclone over the next couple days as shear is low and waters warm. One limiting factor is land interaction with Luzon, which is preventing significant development at present.

Convection is persisting near the weak LLC of 95W today, however, the long term future for this invest looks bleak. 95W is moving northeastwards, and destructive shear lies to the north of the system, which will likely tear 95W apart. Chances are poor for TC development.

After looking like it may become the first tropical storm of the West Pacific season, 96W has fallen apart. Interaction with the larger 94W has likely caused this, as shear is low and waters warm in the area. 94W is currently absorbing 96W so 96W has no chance of TC development and will be declared dissipated shortly.

Invest 97W has formed, just off the coast of Vietnam. Waters are warm and shear is low, however, 97W lacks a well defined LLC. Convection is flaring near the coast and slow development is possible in the favourable conditions, providing 97W doesn't move inland.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.