West Pacific/north Indian Ocean Invest Thread 2009

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates mate

[Cookie]

invest 99W

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.4N

128.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM

NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL

IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN A MID-LEVEL

CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED

AND UNCONSOLIDATED. A 082311Z 91GHZ SSMI/S IMAGE REVEALS THE LACK OF

AN ORGANIZED LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT

15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR

1006 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONVECTION AND ORGANIZED MID-LEVEL

TURNING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL

CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

90W

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.3N

152.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 151.5E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE IN THE EASTERLIES AND

SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS UNDER THE CONVECTION HINTING AT A LOW-

LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW GIVING THE SYSTEM

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE

WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS

ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO

FAIR.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

99W has continued to slowly become better organised. The system, although under moderate shear, is feeling the benfits of ample equatorward outflow and improving poleward outflow which is serving to tighten up the LLC. Convection has slowly been increasing and consolidating over the last day too. JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system as the warm waters and good outflow are expected to allow this system to strengthen into a tropical depression.

Invest 90W has formed, around 7N, 150E. Deep convection is firing and showing signs of rotation. Waters are warm, shear is low and outflow is improving. This suggests that at least some slow development is possible and if these favourable condition perist then a tropical depression could form over the next day or two.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Cookie]

99W

PAGASA has upgraded to TD Gorio...

90W

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

99W became Tropical Storm Soudelor.

90W has dissipated.

Invest 91W formed day or so ago in the low lattitudes, to the southeast of the Philippines. The system was showing signs of roatation but I can see little evidence of that now. Although there is a lot of convection attached to the system, it's showing no signs of organisation at present. In addition, shear is increasing which is probably preventing organisation. Chances for TC development in the near term are poor.

Invest 92W formed a day or so ago to the east-northeast of the Philippines, approximately 400 miles away. This system has been stuggling to organise in high shear. However, this shear is now easing to moderate levels, and in response, the disturbance is becoming better organised. The system is showing signs of strong rotation, but convection is currently lacking near the centre. This should improve however, as 92W is now feeling the effects of radial outflow now the shear has eased, and this should allow more convection to flesh out the system a bit. Because of the favourable conditions and better defined LLC, JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert (TCFA) on the system. If that convection doesn't quickly develop though, this system may not become a tropical depression with the next 24hrs as the TCFA criteria requires. Shear is still moderate too, and this may slow development but probably wouldn't stop it. Chances are good for development into a TC however once that convection fires up and persists.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Cookie]

91W

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 137.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

92W

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

91W remains highly disorganised. However, shear is easing so some slow development is possible.

92W continues to look healthy. The system is showing good rotation and a developing LLC. In addition, convection has increased a lot in the last 24hrs. A tropical depression could form tonight or tomorrow as the system drifts northwestwards towards Taiwan.

Invest 93W has formed, a couple hundred miles east of 91W. Like 91W, the convection isn't showing much sign of organisation, however, there is a lot of convection to work with should a circulation form. Shear is moderate which may slow further development.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

91W has rapidly become better organised and JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system. 91W is making good use of some toasty waters, low shear and excellent outflow to develop. The LLC is consolidating quickly and convection has been persistant, more particularly in the last 6 hours. With the good environment and excellent satellite presentation a tropical depression is quite likely to form later today.

92W became TD06W.

93W remains disorganised. Shear has lessened for now but the outflow from the rapidly developing 91W is likely to increase the shear over 93W again soon. Proximity to 91W will certainly hamper any further development, and 91W could well absorb 93W. Chances remain poor for TC development for this system.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

92W:

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

91W has become TD07W.

93W has dissipated.

Invest 94W had developed near Hainan Island. Convection is being sheared to the southwest of a poorly defined LLC. Further development is unlikely due to this strong shear which also affected Soudelor a few days ago.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

94W has dissipated.

Invest 95W has formed, east-southeast of the Philippines. Scattered, deep cells of convection are showing very little sign of organisation, and although waters are warm, shear is currently high, probably due to the outflow from TS Molave to the northwest. Once Molave moves further away and becomes weaker then this disturbance may have a better shot at development, but for now, chances of TC development are poor.

Invest 96W has formed in the eastern half of the basin, at 24N, 156E. An extratropical low has become cut off from the baroclinic zone to the north and has been slowly drifting west-southwest into tropical waters. The circulation of 96W is fairly large but well defined. However, apart from a band to the south, convection is scarce, particularly over the centre. Shear is currently high but is showing signs of slowly easing, a trend that could well continue over the next few days. Therefore, some slow development is possible.

All of the storms so far have formed very near or around the Philippines. If 96W were to form, it would break the trend a little:

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

95W remains disorganised. Limited convection remains in the area, and there is little evidence of a circulation. The invest will likely soon dissipate.

96W persists in the eastern half of the basin. A well defined circulation is clear to see, but only because there is still very little convection associated with the disturbance. This could well be because the air is quite dry, and also lower level convergence is poor, therefore not supporting the development of convection. 96W is moving slowly westwards in an area of low shear and warm sea surface temps. However, unless the low level convergence improves, 96W is going to find it very difficult to build the convection it needs to further develop.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

95W dissipated.

96W dissipated.

97W formed and dissipated.

Invest 91C has been re-classified as invest 98W as it has moved into this basin from the Central Pacific, and is currently located around 10N, 172E. The disturbance has been very fickle- looking well organised at times only to collapse again in higher shear. Shear is currently a moderate 10-20kts, but is showing signs of easing. There is signs of weak rotation and convection is increasing once more after it got sheared away in the higher shear near the dateline. I was quite confident that something may form when this system was east of the dateline but overall the system is less organised than then. Therefore, I'd say further development will continue to be slow.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

98W has dissipated.

Invest 99W has formed southeast of Luzon. Deep convection is flaring and showing signs of rotation in the area. Shear is moderate, and waters are warm, so further development is possible. The main factor that would stop development is land interaction with the Philippines if the disturbance moves westwards.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Cookie]

91W

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

99W has dissipated.

Invest 90W has formed, several hundred miles northeast of Guam. The convection assocaited with the disturbance is showing fair rotation, however, convection is not all that concentrated/organised. Conditions appear favourable for further development though, with low shear, warm sea temps and improving outflow which should start fuelling convection. JTWC give 90W a fair chance for TC development over the next day or so.

Invest 91W has formed, to the east-southeast of Invest 90W. Convection has decreased since Cookie posted the morning image, and this is probably because outflow is being hampered, possibly by the outflow from 90W. However, waters are warm and shear is low so further development is possible. JTWC also assess the chances of TC development as fair. This is reasonable as 91W has being showing signs of a better defined LLC this morning.

Invest 92W has formed, just 5 degrees north of the equator, several hundred miles south of Invest 90W. 92W is likely too far away from 90W to be hindered like 91W, however, the system is very much disorganised, probably due to the lack of spin in it's current location. Shear is also moderate to high, which is disrupting attempts for a circulation to form and for any organisation of the convection. Chances of further development are poor.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

90W continues is getting better organised. Convection is becoming deeper and more concentrated and an LLC seems to be forming near the convection. If 90W keeps this up it could become a tropical depression tomorrow. The only posible hinderance is higher shear to the north, so if 90W keeps heading due west it will remain in low to moderate shear.

Convection has increased in association with 91W. A large mass of convection has become persistant over the last 6 hours. However, I would like it to persist overnight before thinking this might become a tropical depression. 90W lies not all that far away, and outflow still is restricted because of this. Chances remain fair for further development, as low shear and warm waters attempt to counter the poor outflow.

Little convection remains in association with 92W. Shear has lessened over the last 6hrs but it may be too little too late for this system. Chances of TC development in the near term are poor IMO.

Invest 93W has formed to the southwest of invest 90W. Disorganised but deep convection is showing some persistance in the area, but little signs of strong rotation as yet. Shear is high over the disturbance which will likely slow any further development. Chances for TC development in the near term are poor.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

Image of the West Pacific showing all four invests in quite close proximity to each other, far to the east of the Philippines. Will any of the actually develop?

[Cookie]

thank goodness for the west pacfic.

[Somerset Squall]

LOL

West Pacific:

90W has become less organised since yesterday. Moderate shear is displacing the bulk of convection northeast of an ill defined LLC. Chances for TC development have been downgraded to poor by JTWC. Continued shear will continue to hamper further development.

91W is on the verge of dissipation. Convection is dissipating and what is left seems to be drifting northwestwards towards the mass of convection associated with 90W. Further development is highly unlikely.

92W has dissipated.

93W remains disorganised. Convection is decreasing with this system and shear remains high, even very high (in excess of 40kts to the southwest). Further development is unlikely.

Invest 94W has formed in the South China Sea, just off the western side of the Philippines. Convection has increased in the area over the last 12 hours and is showing signs of very weak rotation. Waters are very warm, however, shear is high and this is disrupting significant organisation. Shear currently looks like it will remain high over the next day or so in the area, so chances of TC development in the near term is poor.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Cookie]

so I jinked it maybe just maybe its my fault.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

90W has dissipated.

91W has dissipated.

93W has become slightly better organised today. Convection has increased, and is showing signs of more ample rotation. In addition, what looks like a weak convectional band is feeding into the dense area of convection. Wind shear remains high however, so any further development will be slow, unless the system moves northwards to lower shear conditions.

94W consists of nothing but a linear area of convection with no signs of rotation. Continued high shear will continue to prohibit development and will probably dissipate the system very soon.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Cookie]

93W

ABPW10 PGTW 300600

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND

/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/300600Z-310600ZJUL2009//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9N

137.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM WEST

OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP POCKETS OF

CONVECTION FORMING TO THE WEST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS ELONGATED WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF

MULTIPLE CIRCULATION CENTERS, BUT IT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF

CONSOLIDATION AS THE CONVECTION IS PULLING CLOSER TO THE CENTER AND

THE LLCC IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC. A 292101Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A

BROAD CIRCULATION OF APPROXIMATELY 700 NM WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT

UNFLAGGED WINDS AROUND THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHEAST, AND NORTHEAST

QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE

SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH WILL PREVENT

POLE-WARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER EQUATORIAL AND WESTERLY OUTFLOW REGIONS

ARE FAVORABLE WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LLCC REMAINS

STRONG HINDERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE

WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS

ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

NNNN

[Cookie]

93W

its looking a lot better

[Cookie]

93W

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

93W became TD08W.

94W dissipated.

Invest 98W has formed a several hundred miles east-northeast of Luzon. Convective banding is increasing around a consolidating LLC. Convection is currently lacking over the LLC, but as shear is low and waters amply warm, a tropical depression could form within the next couple days especially as the circulation is very well defined at present.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

[Somerset Squall]

West Pacific:

98W became Typhoon Morakot.

Invest 90W has formed several hundred miles east of the Philippines, southeast of Typhoon Morakot. The circulation is very large and broad but some persistant convection is firing near the centre of circulation and the system is displaying some formative banding features. Conditions are good with low shear, warm waters and good poleward outflow. I think there is a fair chance of a tropical depression forming here over the next day or so.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.