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Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire

    Please continue in here :D

    Don't forget, all the latest Model Output is available, for free, here on Netweather, and

    most charts are in a higher resolution than those on Wetterzentrale

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Early March is looking colder and more unsettled according to the latest models and our current high which has been lingering around for the last few weeks and diverting all the interesting weather into central europe is going to lose it's grip and will be eroded as low pressure moves in from the north west by the weekend.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

    I am certainly looking forward to the change to something more active and colder. The current weather is like mental deprivation for me as it provides no interest or stimulation whatsoever!

    Cold zonality is a good option for March as the SSTs are at their lowest, meaning less modification for the polar maritime air.

    Karyo

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    fi throws up the possibility of an north easterly/easterly in mid march... this would probabally bring alot of low grey cloud, chilly winds, possibly the most boring weather we can get!

    It depends on the airmass source. It is true that an easterly/north-easterly in mid March is more likely to bring that scenario than it is in mid-winter, because of the warmer upper air and lower air-sea contrast. But a very cold airmass can still bring sunshine and snow showers. There was an easterly outbreak around 17-20 March 2001 in Tyneside that brought sunshine and snow showers.

    I wouldn't call the current weather dross.

    Its nearly 12 degrees, the sun is shining and not a breath of wind. Just been down the shop with no coat on and you can feel the spring strength in the sun. Lovely day if I'm honest.

    I'd probably take one more cold blast if it can guarantee snow, but otherwise it can go away for me.

    All depends on where you live. In Exeter, it's currently about as "driech" as it gets, with slate grey clouds, not even a glimmer of sunshine, and the odd spot of drizzle. But some other places are having springlike sunshine.

    It does look increasingly like becoming cool zonal after all as we head into March- maybe I was wrong yet again to speculate about a mild 1997/2000 style March? Indeed the synoptics look pretty similar to those of last March.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    A very much welcome change being progged this morning after a disasterous 2nd half of February. May not get very cold, but certainly an improvement to have something nearer average.

    erm... it IS 'near' average

    I wouldn't call the current weather dross.

    Its nearly 12 degrees, the sun is shining and not a breath of wind. Just been down the shop with no coat on and you can feel the spring strength in the sun. Lovely day if I'm honest.

    I'd probably take one more cold blast if it can guarantee snow, but otherwise it can go away for me.

    ill second that! :D

    march looks like being very very 'normal' if the 06z is to be believed... no heatwaves, no freeze.

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    Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
    It depends on the airmass source. It is true that an easterly/north-easterly in mid March is more likely to bring that scenario than it is in mid-winter, because of the warmer upper air and lower air-sea contrast. But a very cold airmass can still bring sunshine and snow showers. There was an easterly outbreak around 17-20 March 2001 in Tyneside that brought sunshine and snow showers.

    Over 80% of the time around here the word 'easterly' means slate grey skies and a cold wind - whatever time of year. It's exactly what it meant in the post xmas anticyclonic spell where while the rest of the UK raved on about this wonderful cold spell & really low temps but we sat under grey skies 24/7 for many many days with temps not budging from around -0.5c to 1c.

    True, easterlies can bring sunshine & showers but in spring you've got much more chance of that from a northerly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

    The GFS upgrade has gone live today, so the parallel GFS that many of you have followed through the winter is now the live, operational version of the GFS. You can see details of the change here:

    THE CHANGES TO THE GLOBAL ANALYSIS SYSTEM /A GLOBAL

    APPLICATION OF THE GRID-POINT STATISTICAL INTERPOLATION /GSI/

    SYSTEM/ INCLUDE:

    1. INCLUSION OF METOP IASI DATA

    2. USE OF VARIATIONAL QC

    3. CHANGE IN LAND/SNOW/ICE SKIN TEMPERATURE VARIANCE

    4. FLOW DEPENDENT REWEIGHTING OF BACKGROUND ERROR VARIANCES

    5. ADDITION OF BACKGROUND ERROR COVARIANCE INPUT FILE

    6. REDUCTION OF NUMBER OF AIRS WATER VAPOR CHANNELS USED

    7. USE OF NEW VERSION AND COEFFICIENTS FOR COMMUNITY

    RADIATIVE TRANSFER MODEL

    8. MODIFICATION OF HEIGHT ASSIGNMENT FOR HEIGHT BASED WIND

    OBSERVATIONS

    9. MODIFICATION OF SURFACE LAND USE FILE TO REMOVE A FEW

    PERMANENT /~12/ GLACIAL POINTS TO IMPROVE SURFACE

    TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OVER THOSE POINTS.

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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
    erm... it IS 'near' average

    ill second that! :)

    march looks like being very very 'normal' if the 06z is to be believed... no heatwaves, no freeze.

    No heatwaves, no freeze you say, but the models are all going for a COLD period during March :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    The GFS upgrade has gone live today, so the parallel GFS that many of you have followed through the winter is now the live, operational version of the GFS. You can see details of the change here:

    What they really need to do is to feed the ECMWF initialisation data in! That was where (I believe by its own admisiion and trial with ECM data) the main failings of the GFS have been found to be wanting - its own data feed. I guess it will be interesting to see how it fares over a period of time with the NCEP comparison charts. There was that run towards the start of the month that I will always remember that kept the operational and all the ensemble members under -5C 850's for the whole of the run. Oh how that changed!

    c

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    t850Fife.png

    interesting ensembles :)

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    No heatwaves, no freeze you say, but the models are all going for a COLD period during March :)

    yep... there will be some cold, thats pretty normal for march and has already been stated... ATM theres no indication of a freeze/snow away from favoured northern hills. and if we see snow showers? so what? what use are they? about as much use as sunshine in november!

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
    yep... there will be some cold, thats pretty normal for march and has already been stated... ATM theres no indication of a freeze/snow away from favoured northern hills. and if we see snow showers? so what? what use are they? about as much use as sunshine in november!

    You can leave that for every individual member to decide!

    Any snow showers will easily lead to settling snow to places such as the Pennines and they are just a stone throw away from me...

    A nice 12z with plenty of cold zonality on offer. In fact, according to this model the chilly weather is advancing earlier than the 0z suggested.

    Karyo

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    yep... there will be some cold, thats pretty normal for march and has already been stated... ATM theres no indication of a freeze/snow away from favoured northern hills. and if we see snow showers? so what? what use are they? about as much use as sunshine in november!

    Anything is better than the dross of the last 10 day or so, the GFS 12z continues the theme of chillier and more unsettled times ahead but not until the weekend onwards, until then the same old mild cloudy rubbish to continue.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    True, easterlies can bring sunshine & showers but in spring you've got much more chance of that from a northerly.

    Yes, very true.

    Mushy's point about snow showers being no use is definitely subject to personal opinion I'm afraid. I mean, some of us just like to see the stuff falling in the form of showers in between sunny intervals on a variable day.

    I think that snow will be largely restricted to high ground, though, in the near future. Hail is quite a common feature of westerly and north-westerly regimes in March though, particularly in the west, so watch out for that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    erm... it IS 'near' average

    Erm, I said in my post that it didn't look like becoming very cold and was merely highlighting that things looked potentially more interesting for next week than what they have been for the last week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.
    You can leave that for every individual member to decide!

    Any snow showers will easily lead to settling snow to places such as the Pennines and they are just a stone throw away from me...

    A nice 12z with plenty of cold zonality on offer. In fact, according to this model the chilly weather is advancing earlier than the 0z suggested.

    Karyo

    Well Mushy does have a point, I LOVE snow but if we get snow showers that don't settle or last long then it is pretty pointless. It's always nice to see snow falling even if it doesen't settle but saying it's like seeing sun in November is quite a good comparison lol, sun in November is nice to see but it doesen't really make anywhere warmer and it doesen't last as long because the days are getting shorter. Snow showers in March that don't settle are nice to see but they don't amount to anything... Unless it's in a potent cold spell with ground temps near 0, which isn't exactly rare in March but it's increasingly unlikely.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
    Well Mushy does have a point, I LOVE snow but if we get snow showers that don't settle or last long then it is pretty pointless. It's always nice to see snow falling even if it doesen't settle but saying it's like seeing sun in November is quite a good comparison lol, sun in November is nice to see but it doesen't really make anywhere warmer and it doesen't last as long because the days are getting shorter. Snow showers in March that don't settle are nice to see but they don't amount to anything... Unless it's in a potent cold spell with ground temps near 0, which isn't exactly rare in March but it's increasingly unlikely.

    Yes looking at the uppers any snow would be fleeting on low ground

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1202.png

    Still it would be a nice change from the current dismal conditions.

    UKMO T120 goes for a similar colder set up

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

    Finally the displaced Azores High being sent home.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    oh please lets not get to excited chilly normal march weather on the model front.

    absolutely no chance of any big freeze wrong time of year for that.

    buts good to see the models moving along nicely again.

    glad to see some normal spring weather hopefully we have a warm spring and summer be nice to see the seasons return back to the norm,

    also good to see the co2 rocket crashed aswell this has got to mean a trend towards colder winters haha :lol: :lol: :lol: .

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Or you mean "the norm for recent years", as traditionally, spring is the transition month between winter and summer and it has always been rare for a March to pass by without there being at least one significant wintry spell. Statistically, many places average more days of snowfall in March than in December.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Finally the displaced Azores High being sent home.

    This is the best news of the day although it has been strongly hinted at previously, the Azores High has long outstayed it's welcome if indeed it was even welcomed in the first place, certainly not by me! Looking like a colder more unsettled spell is on the way although nothing particularly wintry is anticipated.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    The GFS upgrade has gone live today, so the parallel GFS that many of you have followed through the winter is now the live, operational version of the GFS. You can see details of the change here:

    and there i was, aghast at the agreement between the op and parallel run - checking backwards and forwards. i did sort of work out that there must be a simple explanation. sylvain - remove the parallel!!

    certainly looking better but still no sign of anything cold enough to give anything other than cold rain or fleeting snowfall. (apart from northern hills of course)

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

    Remember, the snow probably wouldn't last as long with it being in March. Once the sun gets to it then it will melt very quickly.

    not neccessarilrly though if it was at the end of march yes but its still not that strong so since its at the begging there is a chance aslong the source is very cold it might not melt

    The sun is considerably stronger at the start of March than it is at the start of February, so the chances of snow lasting a week is quite slim compared to the Feb event. But it all depends on cloud cover of course.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

    http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

    http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

    Thats better! :D Northeasterly Anyone :lol:

    :lol: nice chart will it come off though? I think it might

    I Think It Will To If it does id be one of the worst hit areas

    So would I (i think), im guessing if that chart came of it would probably be like 2nd of feb (heavy snow showers across the country) but lasting all throughout the week, which would do me fine !

    Me 2 as i got 8cm from that :lol: all week it would be awesome

    Remember, the snow probably wouldn't last as long with it being in March. Once the sun gets to it then it will melt very quickly.

    not neccessarilrly though if it was at the end of march yes but its still not that strong so since its at the begging there is a chance aslong the source is very cold it might not melt

    Me 2 as i got 8cm from that :p all week it would be awesome

    Sounds like i got a mere dusting...........................by 3rd February i had 28cm of lying snow with 50cm+ drifts :p

    Sounds like i got a mere dusting...........................by 3rd February i had 28cm of lying snow with 50cm+ drifts :p

    Lucky Lol

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