Model Output Discussion

[londonsnow]

well i think the colder outlook is nailed now, the detail is far from it. lots of wintry potential from the 12z, and whilst not much chance of longlived lying snow away from high ground I think we'll all see a blustery wintry mix next week with hail and thunder. anything is better than the boredom of recent days here, although the sun did show its face today albeit briefly

[snowmadchrisuk]

I'm getting ready to go out and i've been ironing my shirt , but I just blumming burnt my finger when I seen this chart . And see Paul I do use netweather charts sometimes

I guess the date of the chart shows it is unlikely to happen. (Friday 13th)

Edited February 28, 2009 by snowmadchrisuk

[azores92]

I'm getting ready to go out and i've been ironing my shirt , but I just blumming burnt my finger when I seen this chart . And see Paul I do use netweather charts sometimes

pressures too high though, and way too far out.

[snowray]

I'm getting ready to go out and i've been ironing my shirt , but I just blumming burnt my finger when I seen this chart :o . And see Paul I do use netweather charts sometimes

I'm getting a bit fed up of these armagedon type cold and snow scenarios that GFS keeps throwing up in FI (This parallel run is worse for this than the old operational run). If the 12z was to be believed Winter propper would be starting in the UK in Mid March!

Edit: Not an outlier, has support from the control run as well.

No NO no!! I'm not going to be sucked in!!!

Edited February 28, 2009 by snowray

[johnholmes]

One or two of you really do need to read other folks posts more carefully!

Lying snow, that is for more than a few hours is obviously less likely in March than in January. The average temperature tells us that quite clearly, with the value about 1.5C higher in March than January.

Thus for lying snow for several days it does need much more unusual synoptics than in January. I think that is all that is being said.

Looking at the charts from the 3 major models I see nothing exceptional in the synoptic patterns they are showing.

Falling snow, yes, coverings even for some low ground, yes, but do you really think, those of you harping on about it, that lying snow for several days at low level is a realistic comment?

Equally the comments being made about people being fed up with GFS charts showing deep cold that never comes off - again a reality check please.

Looking at charts beyond 48 hours and expecting them to occur, especially for snow, is a waste of time. EWe have had 3 months of these, excuse the comment, daft remarks, and some of you seem to have learnt nothing.

Edited February 28, 2009 by johnholmes

[londonsnow]

One or two of you really do need to read other folks posts more carefully!

Lying snow, that is for more than a few hours is obviously less likely in March than in January. The average temperature tells us that quite clearly, with the value about 1.5C higher in March than January.

Thus for lying snow for several days it does need much more unusual synoptics than in January. I think that is all that is being said.

Looking at the charts from the 3 major models I see nothing exceptional in the synoptic patterns they are showing.

Falling snow, yes, coverings even for some low ground, yes, but do you really think, those of you harping on about it, that lying snow for several days at low level is a realistic comment?

couldnt agree more

[Cheese Rice]

The ensembles look intresting for the prospects of wintry weather next week, with -3-7 upper air until the 8th march, with some very brief warm-ups (possibbly in mild sectors), from then on usual scatter, suprisingly some support for the cold easterly right at the end of the run with upper air temps getting down -11, but still FI (extreme FI), but you can never say never

[snowmadchrisuk]

One or two of you really do need to read other folks posts more carefully!

Lying snow, that is for more than a few hours is obviously less likely in March than in January. The average temperature tells us that quite clearly, with the value about 1.5C higher in March than January.

Thus for lying snow for several days it does need much more unusual synoptics than in January. I think that is all that is being said.

Looking at the charts from the 3 major models I see nothing exceptional in the synoptic patterns they are showing.

Falling snow, yes, coverings even for some low ground, yes, but do you really think, those of you harping on about it, that lying snow for several days at low level is a realistic comment?

Equally the comments being made about people being fed up with GFS charts showing deep cold that never comes off - again a reality check please.

Looking at charts beyond 48 hours and expecting them to occur, especially for snow, is a waste of time. EWe have had 3 months of these, excuse the comment, daft remarks, and some of you seem to have learnt nothing.

The chart I posted a few posts up was more for a bit of fun on a saturday night rather than thinking they will happen. But I also think it shows the kind of 850's you would need to stand any chance of lying snow on low ground in the uk.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Any chance of lying snow that would last a significant length of time, that is. You can still get lying snow with the 850s around -5C, indeed higher than that if it's persistent rather than showery in nature. But on those occasions it does not last long.

[Paul]

Locking this thread now, new one now open here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=53988

Please stay on topic within the new thread - all off topic posts will be removed without warning.