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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

:lol: nice chart will it come off though? I think it might

I Think It Will To If it does id be one of the worst hit areas

So would I (i think), im guessing if that chart came of it would probably be like 2nd of feb (heavy snow showers across the country) but lasting all throughout the week, which would do me fine !

The sun is considerably stronger at the start of March than it is at the start of February, so the chances of snow lasting a week is quite slim compared to the Feb event. But it all depends on cloud cover of course.

Agree, i remeber the 2005 late feb easterly with same kind of set up, snow showers all week, but none of it settled in the afternoon, and all lying snow (10cm+) was gone by 11am, that repeated itself all week, you would need pretty cold airmass i would have thought, but the real problem is the sun, maybe a cloudy setup with snow showers mixed in with the clouds (although ive never seen that kind of setup :lol: )

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Couldn't muster any interest in looking at the charts yesterday, delighted then today to see the 'resident' azores high finally looking like it will clear away just as March arrives, it could have waited until mid march rather mid feb to arrive, anyhow, models in general agreement of a change to more unsettled conditions from the north west as we head into March - as I predicted with a NW/SE tracking low pressure to kick the month off- at the same time crucially we are seeing heights rise over mid atlantic ridging NW toward Newfoundland - so it does not look like we are entering a zonal westerly spell - my call is for a cold first week to March with plenty of polar air, plenty of wintry showers for the northern half of the country and frosts returning for many. Whether we see any real height rises over Greenland who knows, likewise we could just as easily pull in a north easterly. I'm just pleased that we look like getting some weather back after what will have been 2 weeks of in my book no weather -model watching over the past 10 days has been painful indeed. Goodbye azores high and hello to the polar maritime low!

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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

Interesting to note that the ECM has now joined the gfs in going for a northerly later next week and also interesting that after the initial blast a reload looks to be on the cards.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

looking more promising now :lol:

charts look quite good and mainly in some sort of agreement with each other

maybe any snowfall will not just stay up here in the north, especially if there is a northeasterly which the likes of newcastle and east anglia do well out of

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Why so quiet on here?

With charts like this on ECM at T+144 plenty to talk about.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1441.gif

Just a shame the Strat warming impacting the troposphere turned out to be a no goer, even a little bit of decent upper heights over Greenland would help this up coming colder spell be a little bit more exciting.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Why so quiet on here?

With charts like this on ECM at T+144 plenty to talk about.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1441.gif

Just a shame the Strat warming impacting the troposphere turned out to be a no goer, even a little bit of decent upper heights over Greenland would help this up coming colder spell be a little bit more exciting.

Because there is no Northerly/Easterly which will affect the SE corner hence it is quiet in this thread.

Certainly some colder weather potential as we head into the first week of March, not alot of snow potential it has too be said but at least the weather will be more exciting than of late.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Well, with charts like this, a really wintry seasonal period coming up..

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1681.png

Some decent cold air wrapped around the depression and if we follow the usual logic of everything shunted 200 miles east, it would leave us in a decent northerly airstream.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Why so quiet on here?

With charts like this on ECM at T+144 plenty to talk about.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1441.gif

Just a shame the Strat warming impacting the troposphere turned out to be a no goer, even a little bit of decent upper heights over Greenland would help this up coming colder spell be a little bit more exciting.

It doesn't look all that cold to me at the moment. The setup looks more like cool zonality than a proper arctic setup. Mainly looks like low presssure systems draging down colder air , but also with mild sectors wrapped round some of the systems. I wouldn't look at ecm and expect snow for the south as things currently stand. But I would love to be proved wrong. In the situation as it stands , manchester north would be the best place for a wintry mix with some possible snow in scotland , with the mountains sure to get some , although I expect there snow basis must be getting pretty low at the minute after all this mild weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I'm still finding it hard to raise much interest with the current model output with nothing in the way of proper wintry weather. Typically we see in most of the models the pattern too far west which keeps a slow moving trough hanging over the UK, unlike northerly topplers which get shunted eastwards with time these patterns with trough squeezed between high pressure to the east and west end in a stalemate and so you have to wait for the whole thing to fill and edge away by which time much of the colder air that was flooding the Atlantic is much modified.

The problem continues with zero northern blocking and PM flows just don't cut it at this time of year, you have to combat the increase in solar energy with a much deeper cold pool and so you need a direct Arctic flow or strong ne to easterly flow, this however now has just a short time to deliver before the continent warms up too much. At least the Azores high will be taking a vacation and I have to say for cold and snow lovers in the UK the last 10 days must have been turgid to say the least, I like high pressure in winter when it can provide crystal clear days and frosty nights not the mild dross served up by the recent one.

So overall nothing wintry on the charts in the more reliable timeframe although it will get a bit cooler but no sign of something that could deliver a proper reminder of winter. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
I'm still finding it hard to raise much interest with the current model output with nothing in the way of proper wintry weather. Typically we see in most of the models the pattern too far west which keeps a slow moving trough hanging over the UK, unlike northerly topplers which get shunted eastwards with time these patterns with trough squeezed between high pressure to the east and west end in a stalemate and so you have to wait for the whole thing to fill and edge away by which time much of the colder air that was flooding the Atlantic is much modified.

The problem continues with zero northern blocking and PM flows just don't cut it at this time of year, you have to combat the increase in solar energy with a much deeper cold pool and so you need a direct Arctic flow or strong ne to easterly flow, this however now has just a short time to deliver before the continent warms up too much. At least the Azores high will be taking a vacation and I have to say for cold and snow lovers in the UK the last 10 days must have been turgid to say the least, I like high pressure in winter when it can provide crystal clear days and frosty nights not the mild dross served up by the recent one.

So overall nothing wintry on the charts in the more reliable timeframe although it will get a bit cooler but no sign of something that could deliver a proper reminder of winter. :)

Completely agree Nick - to me there is little or no sign of decent snowfall away from high ground I'm afraid. We saw a setup like this at the beginning of December, where we wanted things to move E, but like you say we have a British trough locked in between a mid-Atlantic high and the E Euro high - so there's little chance of eastward movement. Of course, things will gradually move eastwards, but by the end there will be little cold wrapped in the system, especially considering that even the original burst in the Atlantic is not that cold.

My guess we will end up in the centre of a LP with damp and not particularly cold air, with hill snow however :)

In March we need much better synoptics than this, and even in mid-Jan there wouldn't be that much potential.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Completely agree Nick - to me there is little or no sign of decent snowfall away from high ground I'm afraid. We saw a setup like this at the beginning of December, where we wanted things to move E, but like you say we have a British trough locked in between a mid-Atlantic high and the E Euro high - so there's little chance of eastward movement. Of course, things will gradually move eastwards, but by the end there will be little cold wrapped in the system, especially considering that even the original burst in the Atlantic is not that cold.

My guess we will end up in the centre of a LP with damp and not particularly cold air, with hill snow however :)

In March we need much better synoptics than this, and even in mid-Jan there wouldn't be that much potential.

I agree , the only way this setup would have delivered to the south even in January would have been if there was already stagment cold air over us. Rather annoying though that only 3 weeks ago we had inches and inches of snow uk wide. There is some great videos of it on youtube.

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Posted
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)

The models themselves wouldn't be so concerning if it wasn't so dead on here as well. And I know it traditionally goes quiet when the weather isn't interesting [cold] and there is none on the horizon which there isn't at the moment, but even some of the regulars have disappeared this time causing the post rate to shrink at an alarming rate, could well be mid summer even going by the lack of activity. Seems like everyone has given up on winter and yet I really don't think winter has quite given up on us, despite the current rut we find ourselves in. Think of it this way; 3 weeks ago tomorrow we had our most substantial snowfall across Northants in over a decade with around 15cm of snow with further snowfalls after that. 3 weeks later the snow has long gone and temps are reaching double figure maxes. Such a contrast. Now if we can make that sort of leap in 2-3 weeks, surely it is plausible we could make a similar leap back the other way in the next 2-3 weeks. And bearing in mind what happened last spring with 2 snowfalls in fairly quick succession towards the back end of March/start of April, I continue to keep an open mind and refuse to lose faith just yet.

Take care

:)

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

Morning all.

It could all be a load of nonsense but after such a boring spell of weather the 0z GFS certainly put a smile on my face this morning.

From about 168 onwards it really is a winter lovers dream run.

It will be interesting to see if the new improvements added to the GFS model yesterday are just that or whether the model has completely gone off the rails.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Whilst things will definetly cool down next week, we need everything to shift 200 miles east. The Atlantic trough slowly slips south eastwards from Iceland and fills leaving most of the Uk in modified rPm air, whilst cold will only deliver snow for the higher hills and mountains.

Still, anything is better than what we have currently.

GFS shows a more solid Atlantic block, ECM not so keen.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Good agreement this morning on the overall pattern upto 144hrs with the Azores high displacing westwards and eastern USA low tracking ne these combine together to deliver a more amplified pattern.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html

After this point the trough becomes slow moving over the UK and eventually fills and moves se wards, whether the UK can get much colder air really depends on what the models do around the Greenland area, we still dont see any sustained height rises here although the gem does deliver a much more interesting set up but not one to be trusted.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.html

So overall some signs this morning of something a little colder but still a long way from a decent wintry spell, at least we have agreement at T-144hrs and thats a start and at least we see the limpet high finally removed. :)

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Excellent GFS 00Z and ensembles, winter isn't over for us yet by a long shot.

Yes it's looking more like the first half of March could produce for cold fans with the Azores High finally doing something right and going west.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
So overall some signs this morning of something a little colder but still a long way from a decent wintry spell, at least we have agreement at T-144hrs and thats a start and at least we see the limpet high finally removed. :)

indeed dispite the more wintry synoptics shown by both the gfs and ecm (havnt viewed others) this morning there still isnt any appreciable snow on offer. the uppers on the gfs 00z are still pretty mild until well into fi... which actually reminds me of spring 1975, cold northerlies until june

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Morning ,morning everyone. Not a lot of changes between now and the weekend but we do have indications on a "BIG" change for all during the course of this weekend and for me it cant come soon enough! Looks like the theme will be next week, unsettled, rather cold , with showers and some general rain with perhaps some wintry stuff on the high ground of the north and west.and a trend perhaps later for it to get even colder.... but both gfs and ecm have a similar pattern right up to t216. Ive got a feeling we will all have something to talk about by next week and indeed something for everyone including some wanted sunshine! :)post-6830-1235555991_thumb.pngpost-6830-1235556010_thumb.pngpost-6830-1235556055_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

So far looking pretty similar to last year's March with the jet finally tracking from NW to SE- a setup that has repeatedly been shown on GFS/ECM at around T+168 and never materialised, but finally creeping into the reliable timeframe, meaning it's much more likely to come to fruition.

No major wintry spells likely in the near timeframe, though hail, sleet and snow will always be possible in the heavier showers and on any slow moving frontal systems, especially high ground. Particularly during "sunshine and showers" weather, snow can occur at higher temperatures than in winter due to strong lapse rates. Provided that we don't get too many of those slow-moving fronts, these cool zonal regimes tend to be cool and wet but also fairly sunny, particularly in eastern districts- classic early spring weather, really.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Slow changes up to and including the weekend as our mild high is eroded from the north west by the first depression, a painfully slow process though. Next week is when the major changes look likely with the second depression - encapsulating a pool of cold air which is forecast to sink south to the west of the British Isles during the course of next week. Should this happen, the W'ly airflow would steadily back through SW'ly to become a strong SE'ly and then by the end of next week into a strong NE'ly. It looks like next week will be significantly colder than this week and more unsettled with wintry precipitation for northern hills and mountains, maybe a wintry mix even in southern areas later next week. Deep FI on the GFS 6z is still showing a wintry blast of epic proportions but still too far out to take seriously.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire

Nothing particularly exciting in terms of cold and snow on the models this morning IMO - looks like a change to somewhat colder conditions is on the way, but never particularly cold, and with low pressure close by, plenty of rain or showers as well. Very little to suggest anything cold or wintry is on the way apart from if you live up in the Scottish Highlands. The following charts show that if that low sinks southeast as suggested by ECM and GFS it will just draw up the milder air from the Mediterranean basin.

ECM:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1921.html

GFS:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1921.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1922.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1923.html

The ECM Dutch ensembles reflect this too: http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaags...E_06260_NWT.png

And the GFS 06Z ensembles simply aren't good enough for snowfall chances:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

-5C 850hPa air doesn't cut it I'm afraid. We need values nearer to -10C and that doesn't look like happening.

To summarise then its just showing a change from the current quiet and mild conditions to something colder and wetter. At least there will actually be some weather to talk about I suppose, but it still looks pretty grim for snow lovers away from the northern hills.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Some of the ensembles do show some warmer weather from the 5th onward which is interesting, though March is a month that i have little concern about.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Some of the ensembles do show some warmer weather from the 5th onward which is interesting, though March is a month that i have little concern about.

Same here realy, early March I would think could produce some extreme cold and snow if everthing were spot on, particularly following on form a particularly severe period of cold in Mid to late February, but these colder slots that turn up later in the month are going to be more akin to Spring showery type Weather. Todays output then showing general agreement for things cooling down by next week with rain, sleet, hail possibly, snow in places at times mainly in the North and on higher ground. Having said this it could be all change again be this evening.

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Some of the ensembles do show some warmer weather from the 5th onward which is interesting, though March is a month that i have little concern about.

Let's not give the wrong impression here , ensembles trending cold with the ensemble mean cold.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

It's getting rather tiresome when people write of anything cold if its not giving 5 inches of snow.

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