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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

Could be completely wrong here but if the ECM run tonight follows its strato forcasts for the next 8 days then it could be a very good run tonight for northern blocking and cold weather fans.

There thats put the mockers on it.

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To be fair the models do suggest a colder unsettled airstream as we head into next week.

I really do think we need to be seeing -10 850's to see widespread snow at this time of the year so unless your high up to the north i think any notion of daytime lying snow can be dismissed.

Those with altitude esp up in scotland might see some decent snow showers but for most of the rest of us wintry showers and wet snow are possible,to dismiss this would be naieve IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
Could be completely wrong here but if the ECM run tonight follows its strato forcasts for the next 8 days then it could be a very good run tonight for northern blocking and cold weather fans.

There thats put the mockers on it.

Very interesting Tundra to say the least because as we all know, the teleconnections can be at times fickle, but I've just checked them and there has been a dramatic change on them since this morning.

NAO

Previously it was showing a gradual trend into negative territory towards the end of the forecast period, however it's now showing a much more pronounced trend into negative territory into early March.

AO

Had previously shown signs of staying neutral, now clearly showing signs of going into negative territory again.

These could all change again, however it's interesting that they have changed quite abruptly during the day along with that interesting update on the ECMWF Strat Forecasts that you have provided.

Regards,

SA. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Could be completely wrong here but if the ECM run tonight follows its strato forcasts for the next 8 days then it could be a very good run tonight for northern blocking and cold weather fans.

There thats put the mockers on it.

Must have missed that, can you give me the link to Strato's forecast please Tundra?

UKMO looks interesting at T144, more akin to BFTP's storm maybe....all eyes on the ECM, feel this will be an interesting run, GFS 12z can go in the bin as far as I am concerned! :)

post-3094-1235584960_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
Must have missed that, can you give me the link to Strato's forecast please Tundra?

UKMO looks interesting at T144, more akin to BFTP's storm maybe....all eyes on the ECM, feel this will be an interesting run, GFS 12z can go in the bin as far as I am concerned! :)

I know what you mean about the GFS model, but it is looking similar to that of the ECM 12z :)

post-2721-1235586064_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

I know what you mean about the GFS model, but it is looking similar to that of the ECM 12z :)

post-2721-1235586064_thumb.png

[/quote

Thats the GFS that you have put up though Yamkin.

Heres the ECM T168, nead everything shifting slightly East, be sods law that it will all stay West though . :)

post-3094-1235587956_thumb.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

post-2721-1235586064_thumb.png

[/quote

Thats the GFS that you have put up though Yamkin.

Heres the ECM T168, nead everything shifting slightly East, be sods law that it will all stay West though . :)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Agreed paul,

I think the ECM 12z is disappointing although an improvement on this week (wouldn't be difficult), nothing like the gfs in fi which at least has a northerly, a mildish easterly is not very appetizing really. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
and it also ends up with a milder easterly after air is drawn up from the Med:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm2161.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm2401.html

Might a situation like that give rise to sharp/thundery late afternoon showers? I'm thinking misty/dull starts, increasingly strong sun breaking through late morning, showers building as the temperature rises by mid afternoon. Although I'll admit late March into April would be better for that possibility.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

ECM following the trend to retrogress the pattern too far west for us. when we eventually take the trough to our south, any cold to our east has been removed by the southerly flow ahead of the trough. a week or so back when this pattern was the meanderings in GEFS FI ensembles, i remembering posting that it looked as though a -NAO would set up too far west if it did indeed do so. in that regard i would call the current NWP a success for the GEFS output. of course, things could change over the next week as we get closer to verification of this pattern change. when we're there we can review again.

in the meantime, the GEFS have taken a fair pounding from some on here because of their poor call on the easterly a couple of weeks back. this is rather unfair, given the conditions that verified 500 miles or so to our east. if one takes the time to look through each run sypnotically to watch the evolution, i believe them to be a valuable tool when placed with the other nwp available.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

I guess it's a case of will everything move east when we need it to. Looking at the GEFS ensembles 4/5 runs bring in -10oC uppers for here, so I'm guessing their may be a chance it will.

Perhaps the models have not yet picked up on little shortwaves which might give it the necessary kick.

Edited by mountain shadow
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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

Must have missed that, can you give me the link to Strato's forecast please Tundra?

UKMO looks interesting at T144, more akin to BFTP's storm maybe....all eyes on the ECM, feel this will be an interesting run, GFS 12z can go in the bin as far as I am concerned! :)

Edited by tundra
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Ahem.. http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090225/12/147/ukmaxtemp.png hardly deep into FI and it is at the warmest time of the day as well and when any ppn comes temps will easily drop a good 3-4.c

trouble is... those predictive temperature charts are notoriously inaccurate (and thats no surprise really) and must be treated as a guide only.

indeed that low looks like it could pump up some warm southerly air, in summer it would be great for storms!

the dry spell looks like coming to an end early next week though...

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
GFS 12z can go in the bin as far as I am concerned! :)

I was rather hoping we could put the ECM 12z in the bin and just keep the GFS 12z post T240 hours but I guess that is just being too picky.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

In a true sense of irony the pattern is now too far west when last week we were hoping it would do this and now we need everything shunted eastwards but unfortunately in these circumstances its hard to imagine a 500 miles eastward progression by the models, because of this as we've seen from the ecm the flow modifies around the low and then to add insult to injury the easterly pulls in milder air which has been sourced in the med!

So basically not that good and although we are seeing a change of pattern it looks like the uk at least initially will sit on the wrong side of the low and once this happens you have to wait for it to fill and sink away and then hope that the pattern remains amplified upstream and some sort of northern blocking can take place.

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Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
In a true sense of irony the pattern is now too far west when last week we were hoping it would do this and now we need everything shunted eastwards but unfortunately in these circumstances its hard to imagine a 500 miles eastward progression by the models, because of this as we've seen from the ecm the flow modifies around the low and then to add insult to injury the easterly pulls in milder air which has been sourced in the med!

So basically not that good and although we are seeing a change of pattern it looks like the uk at least initially will sit on the wrong side of the low and once this happens you have to wait for it to fill and sink away and then hope that the pattern remains amplified upstream and some sort of northern blocking can take place.

Actually in the next few runs i think it may get shunted eastwards due to previous northerlies attempts have so lewts wait and see

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Ah, I did see that, Thanks Tundra.

Seems we are plagued with mild Easterlies again, guess it was pure luck to get one cold Easterly for that memorable 24/36 hours, have we had any other cold plunges this winter of -10hpa air thats got as far South as the South coast of England though, cant think of any others... :)

Never know, if things DO shift East in the next few days, which is what normally happens, things could start looking quite interesting, and only just in time because after the 1st 10 days of March I'm sure most people are looking forward to some nice sunny days and higher temps, although I never say no to snow events like last years in late March or Early April.

Snowray

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
I wonder if anyone can help, the text i posted with the charts never appeared would anyone know why this happened.

Did the same to me earlier, dont know why? Try deleting the message you are replying to, if you are replying to one that is.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Firm agreement from all the models of a significant pattern change occuring as we head into March. Goodbye to the azores high which I am very glad about indeed. Difficult to call on how things are likely to pan out next week, the normal rule is for low pressure to transfer eastwards, the fact that the ECM and GFS to a lesser extent are wanting to keep the low out west and then moving SE to draw in an easterly but from a rather mild continental source suggests that they are picking up on unusual upstream patterns. The low could easily still transfer further eastwards to draw in a much colder polar flow (what I would like), however the synoptics shown by ECM and GFS also look quite plausible, if they verify it would still deliver rather cool weather, but would make it much more difficult to tap into any real cold uppers, we would then be needing heights to build sufficiently to the NW to help deliver these - provided NAO stays negative and the jet remains weak this could easily happen.. In summary I'm not certain of exact details for next week but certainly a rather cool if not cold period is beckoning with frosts returning and possibly snow to low levels; certainly the hills of the north look like getting a good pasting early next week... All in all after 2 weeks of very tedious and frustrating model watching we now have some interesting things happen again. Often believe late feb to be a very dull time for weather watching.. March will be very welcomed.

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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

Glad to see this boring grey nothiness weather coming to a close Plenty of runs that take the low further east on the GFS 12z ensemble maps too

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Out to T+120 on the 18z and the Icelandic low is already about 200 miles further south east than the 12z. Maybe a little better...

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png

Edited by mountain shadow
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