Model Output Discussion

[Snowaddict]

Out to T+120 on the 18z and the Icelandic low is already about 200 miles further south east than the 12z. Maybe a little better...

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png

Yep MS, quite a bit better .

Very wintry flavour to the weather over Ireland in particular late next Monday into Tuesday if GFS 18Z is to be correct.

The colder air also spreads westwards into the UK quite swiftly.

Feeling quite cold also.

SA.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Might a situation like that give rise to sharp/thundery late afternoon showers? I'm thinking misty/dull starts, increasingly strong sun breaking through late morning, showers building as the temperature rises by mid afternoon. Although I'll admit late March into April would be better for that possibility.

Unlikely- my guess would be dull and drizzly, especially in the east. I think sharp/thundery late afternoon showers are rare from an east/north-easterly setup until well into May. Still very hypothetical though.

In any case the GFS 18Z is showing a sunshine-and-showers westerly for around the same time.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Didn't this sort of thing happen about a month ago, cold W'ly / NW'ly that got downgraded so much that in the end it was just rain for most?

[mountain shadow]

Much better than GFS 12z which wasn't that bad. Not saying we are going to tap into the really cold stuff up north, but a slight step in the right direction especially for the west.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1681.png

Didn't this sort of thing happen about a month ago, cold W'ly / NW'ly that got downgraded so much that in the end it was just rain for most?

This will bring rain for most at the moment anyway. I'm just looking for trends at the minute to move everything slightly further east with better amplication of of the Atlantic High.

18z does away with 'mild' easterly scenario and wants to bring in a reload northerly

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1921.png

I'll miss the pub run until next winter..........

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn2161.png

Negative zonality, at least it won't be mild

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn2641.png

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I can understand ones been cautious , but surely when models start to look better there is no point in going negative at the 1st signs off colder weather , we all look towards the models for direction so lets look at the forecasts they issue rather than slaggin them b4 its due lol!!!!!!!! im not picking at any1 just making a very small point , hope no1 minds

[mountain shadow]

Agree Shaun, trend for colder and colder next week yet on here it's getting quieter and quieter, maybe it's because the south east is unlikely to see much.

Decent runs for the north and west, I would go as far to say I will see snow next week. Unlikely to be anything special at the moment but trending the right direction.

First test of the new GFS.

[phil nw.]

Agree Shaun, trend for colder and colder next week yet on here it's getting quieter and quieter, maybe it's because the south east is unlikely to see much.

Decent runs for the north and west, I would go as far to say I will see snow next week. Unlikely to be anything special at the moment but trending the right direction.

First test of the new GFS.

The quiet thread is nothing to do with where posters live imo M.S.

There simply is no deep cold or lasting snow in the reliable period of the models to intice posters back after this period of non-descript weather.

Granted it looks colder next week and more unsettled but no real Wintry conditions to see in March,except perhaps in the Highlands.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Much better 18z for next week. I think that might just have some snow in that run. ppn is heavy and falling at night. A wintry mix at least from the 18z.

[Geordiesnow]

I would say that what the models are showing is certainly interesting on a convective fan POV, any showers that do hit the West could well be thundery with hail mixed in for good measure. I sadly do not see much in the way of snow potential but any showers that do hit Ireland at night could well have more of an wintry element too them.

Only 4-5 more days of this dull tedious weather pattern too go although in truth, sunshine amounts here over the past few days have not been that bad.

[Yeti]

I would say that what the models are showing is certainly interesting on a convective fan POV, any showers that do hit the West could well be thundery with hail mixed in for good measure. I sadly do not see much in the way of snow potential but any showers that do hit Ireland at night could well have more of an wintry element too them.

Only 4-5 more days of this dull tedious weather pattern too go although in truth, sunshine amounts here over the past few days have not been that bad.

Yep, also to note that there is some serious snow on the way again for the Pennines northwards above about 400-500m - particularly on Tuesday. Much more exciting weather on the way - little chance of low level lying snow, but on the mountains it could get fantastic

[snowmadchrisuk]

I would say that what the models are showing is certainly interesting on a convective fan POV, any showers that do hit the West could well be thundery with hail mixed in for good measure. I sadly do not see much in the way of snow potential but any showers that do hit Ireland at night could well have more of an wintry element too them.

Only 4-5 more days of this dull tedious weather pattern too go although in truth, sunshine amounts here over the past few days have not been that bad.

You are very lucky , in the midlands the sun hasn't broke through for over a week , Just grey damp and lots of drizzle.

If I had some sunshine in this mild spell I wouldn't be moaning at all , infact i'd even go as far as to say let it continue. But dull dry and mild I hate .

[NorthantsSnow]

Looks like cold is on the way back in. Good agreement on the models now of cold packing in from the NW early next week. Even Rob McElwee on BBC weather made a fleeting reference to it on his forecast tonight. "The wind remains in the south-west up until the end of the weekend. But after that, [raises eyebrows], ahhh." He's a right tease that one, isn't he? Watch here. Also interesting to note he started the forecast by reflecting upon the last cold spell and pointing out that as things stand at least this winter is the coldest in over a decade.

Back to the models I think once the cold makes a return next week it could be locked in for some time, and by cold here I do mean below average weather but also snow potential for some. Some members harp on about the snow potential being exclusive to higher ground here, but actually I wouldn't rule out low level snow for a time in Ireland with charts like this:

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090225/18/126/h850t850eu.png

Whatever about snow, it will feel much colder EVERYWHERE by Tuesday with temps dropping significantly and widespread frosts returning, occasionally harsh in the extreme north.

Edited February 26, 2009 by NorthantsSnow

[snowray]

Well there we have it people, a new super storm a' la GFS at T150....Remember folks, you saw it here first!

00z

[snowray]

And it gets even better!!

Will the ECM come on board I wonder, still a long way off though.

T240

Edited February 26, 2009 by snowray

[tundra]

Morning all.

Well surprise surprise its the GFS v the Euro models again in the mid range, i know which one i would like to believe but alas i know which ones will probably be right.

You would like to think the GFS will get one right sooner or later.

[mountain shadow]

Whilst the ECM and METO aren't as amplified as the GFS 0z, they are much improved from previous runs. As I mentioned last night, big test of the new GFS.

It's once again all about which model handles the US eastern seaboard low the best. Now this is GFS's neck of the woods, will be interesting to see how things pan out.

I continue to be shocked by the lack of interest in this thread given the wintry prospects next week.

[bluearmy]

some hints that the pattern might be a little further east next week - however, this also brings into focus a possibility that it could evolve like the ecm 00z FI. at this stage this would seem an outlier solution. there seems to be less appetite for the southerly draw ahead of the trough on the 00z's. this will help keep the air to our east cooler, should we eventually draw in an easterly flow. GEM the pick in FI again as it eventually advects an upper cold pool in 10 days time which is the product of the cold currently sitting over eastern europe.

overall, more questions that answers this morning .

[microclimate]

Whilst the ECM and METO aren't as amplified as the GFS 0z, they are much improved from previous runs. As I mentioned last night, big test of the new GFS.

It's once again all about which model handles the US eastern seaboard low the best. Now this is GFS's neck of the woods, will be interesting to see how things pan out.

I continue to be shocked by the lack of interest in this thread given the wintry prospects next week.

I suspect that if many are like myself then the've had their fix for this winter...........our expectations are so low these days.

[nick sussex]

A difference of opinion this morning between the gfs and ecm in the latter stages with the ecm pushing the azores high eastwards at 216 and 240 and the gfs holding a more amplified pattern and much colder northerly, so we'll have to wait and see here, the ecm in recent weeks has been just as errant as the gfs in the FI output although it would be typical now if the ecm had this one correct. Of course model output of the day is the gem which has the best later output and pulls in a cold easterly but looks totally alone here with its view. I had to put this chart up, this although it was March would be very cold with snow and is one of the best charts you could wish to see especially if this was in deep winter but alas the gem is even more error prone at that timeframe than the ecm or gfs.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2281.html

The ukmo and other remaining models all look similar upto 144hrs so at least there will be a change with the Azores high finally displacing westwards, if the gfs has the latter output correct then a reminder of winter, if the ecm is right spring will arrive.

Edited February 26, 2009 by nick sussex

[mushymanrob]

You are very lucky , in the midlands the sun hasn't broke through for over a week , Just grey damp and lots of drizzle.

thats odd, i have had some decent amounts of sunshine which was a joy to be out in.

I continue to be shocked by the lack of interest in this thread given the wintry prospects next week.

but why? even this mornings gfs isnt going to deliver any major freeze even though its a colder run then yesterdays and most of the real cold is still in FI. as i see it, its only on the cold side of 'normal'.

[Frosty.]

The ECM 00z is very poor overall, keeping the uk in a mostly westerly flow occasionally buckling into a sw'ly or southerly. It would keep temps close to average with spells of rain and brighter spells. The GFS 00z is much better in that it transfers all the energy further east and puts us on the cold side as depressions make more eastward progress, in my opinion we are no closer to a return of wintry conditions.

[ANYWEATHER]

The predicted unsettled weather for next week is still on the cards with low pressure very much in charge but of course differences will occur from the models at this point out. Both ecm and gfs have a very unsettled picture and perhaps very windy as well and the gfs show a good shot of polar maritime air so wintry conditions is possible especially in the north and west. In my view something for everyone next week and there may be a few surprizes for some as well!

[PB22]

Interesting differences this morning between the models in the medium range outlook. Looking at the ensembles:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

We can see the GFS operational was not an outlier, although it became one of the colder runs for the south.

The ECM ensembles for De Bilt:

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

Shows the ECM operational was bang in the middle of its ensembles, so the operational was a reasonable reflection it would seem.

With the T+144 UKMO more in line with the ECM, you'd have to think that the ECM will be nearer the mark but time will tell as things are likely to change again. Either way, no real sign of any particularly cold weather, just cool with plenty of cold rain or showers for the majority.

[Frosty.]

Interesting differences this morning between the models in the medium range outlook. Looking at the ensembles:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

We can see the GFS operational was not an outlier, although it became one of the colder runs for the south.

The ECM ensembles for De Bilt:

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

Shows the ECM operational was bang in the middle of its ensembles, so the operational was a reasonable reflection it would seem.

With the T+144 UKMO more in line with the ECM, you'd have to think that the ECM will be nearer the mark but time will tell as things are likely to change again. Either way, no real sign of any particularly cold weather, just cool with plenty of cold rain or showers for the majority.

Yes paul, I think we have seen the last of the really wintry weather. The ecm offers up typical early spring synoptics and the gfs is probably wrong as per usual.

[grab my graupel]

I like a bit of active weather, but I really hope this doesn't materialise