SIO: Tropical Cyclone Nineteen

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[Somerset Squall]

After sitting in the South Indian Ocean for over a week, indeed, invest 97S has become organised enough to be classified as a tropical cyclone. 19S has a well defined LLC, with some deep convection sheared slightly south of the centre. Moderate shear will persist over the next couple days which will prevent any significant intensification. The system is currently being steered southeastwards by an equatorial ridge to the north but influences from this feature are expected to lessen, and as the storm is fairly shallow, it is more likely to be increasingly influenced by an easterly low level flow, forcing the storm westwards. If shear becomes any stronger, 19S could well dissipate at any time.

[Somerset Squall]

Shear has overcome 19S this morning, and the cyclone has been declared a remnant low. Convection is heavily sheared southeast of a weakening LLC. As shear is expected to increase further over the next day or so, regeneration is not expected.