April CET

[snowray]

OK, I have decided to change my punt to

8.9C

Cheers

[/quote

ok, with 40 mins to go I'l change mine please to 9.2c please.

still 36 mins to go for any more changes................................ :lol:

[Stratos Ferric]

Nearly missed it...

8.7C

[Thundery wintry showers]

Damnit! 12 minutes over!

9.0C. Should be some warm SW'ly and anticyclonic spells more than offsetting any cooler north-westerlies.

[Yeti]

9.2c

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'll go for 8.0C methinks

[osmposm]

Late, I know, but I think worth the penalty points, I am upping my guess by a full degree to

8.8^oC

Ossie

[Methuselah]

My 7.3 is looking shakey already. I guess I'm counting on the upcoming Monster Global Cooling Episode to show itself?

[noggin]

Does anyone know what the figures are so far? For here (in a corner of the CET zone), the night-time temps have been quite cool with some light frosts and the daytimes have been somewhat on the cool side. So far, it feels as if it has been cooler than March and the forecast isn't that hot!

Any info, anyone? Please? Ta! B)

[chionomaniac]

Hadley 9.5ºC up to the 4th. http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2009

Manley from Philip Eden slightly lower at 9.3ºC. http://www.climate-uk.com/

[laserguy]

My 7.3 is looking shakey already. I guess I'm counting on the upcoming Monster Global Cooling Episode to show itself?

Somewhat OT,but do you mean like it's doing right now in the good ol' US of A,Pete?

http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/records/7d...mp,mintemp,snow

As for our CET - no idea and won't embarass myself by pretending otherwise.

[osmposm]

None of us has the faintest idea about the CET, Barrie - that's why it's so much fun!

Thanks for the link to that site, too - interesting. I hope you're not reading any significance in that weeks' worth, though: have a look at one single day - the first I tried - exactly a month ago..... http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/records/cu...&s=20090306

Ossie

[reef]

It seems to have gone pretty much unnoticed but the first 6 days of April have been very mild indeed.

Hadley has the value at 9.2C to the 6th.

Its a common misconception by many on here that a lot of spring is actually on average much milder than it really is. Ive seen posts like 'normal April weather continuing' in the Model Discussion thread. Hardly normal when we're running 2.7C above the running average for the point in the month!

April 2007 had a mean of just 8.3C up to this point.

[damianslaw]

It seems to have gone pretty much unnoticed but the first 6 days of April have been very mild indeed.

Hadley has the value at 9.2C to the 6th.

Its a common misconception by many on here that a lot of spring is actually on average much milder than it really is. Ive seen posts like 'normal April weather continuing' in the Model Discussion thread. Hardly normal when we're running 2.7C above the running average for the point in the month!

April 2007 had a mean of just 8.3C up to this point.

Yes it has been a noticeably very mild start to April, we have had some very high maxima this week in the CET zone and mild minima due to the atlantic influence, expect it to take a bit of a tumble over the coming days.. but even at this early stage I can't see a below average CET being recorded, would require a preety cold second half to do that, yes its possible but the odds are against it.

[Scorcher]

There could be a rise today as the mid teens have been reached quite widely and minima should be rather high tonight across the CET zone. It looks like many places won't get below 10C tonight.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

It seems to have gone pretty much unnoticed but the first 6 days of April have been very mild indeed.

Hadley has the value at 9.2C to the 6th.

Its a common misconception by many on here that a lot of spring is actually on average much milder than it really is. Ive seen posts like 'normal April weather continuing' in the Model Discussion thread. Hardly normal when we're running 2.7C above the running average for the point in the month!

April 2007 had a mean of just 8.3C up to this point.

There are, and always have been in nearly every calendar year, months where the first week has been + or -2 against the average - so it is hardly anything unusual. April 1981 is an extreme example with a very mild first half and a bitterly cold second half. November 2005 is another example - but the other way around. There are plenty more.

It is true that there is no reliable sign of anything especially cold on the horizon yet this month, but all in all, it is generally fairly normal Spring weather with the emphasis currently for some higher than average temps - much as winter was dominated by lower than average temps. Nothing unusual about any of it.

April as a whole does indeed stand a good chance of being above average, as my signature continues to suggest, but some perspective as ever should be kept. Your local weather tends to influence your general countrywide opinions - and is not always an accurate reflection of the bigger picture.

[reef]

There are, and always have been in nearly every calendar year, months where the first week has been + or -2 against the average - so it is hardly anything unusual. April 1981 is an extreme example with a very mild first half and a bitterly cold second half. November 2005 is another example - but the other way around. There are plenty more.

It is true that there is no reliable sign of anything especially cold on the horizon yet this month, but all in all, it is generally fairly normal Spring weather with the emphasis currently for some higher than average temps - much as winter was dominated by lower than average temps. Nothing unusual about any of it.

April as a whole does indeed stand a good chance of being above average, as my signature continues to suggest, but some perspective as ever should be kept. Your local weather tends to influence your general countrywide opinions - and is not always an accurate reflection of the bigger picture.

Its not a case of local weather influencing people's views at all. Average months do have cold and mild spells in the Spring, but the last 8 weeks have been almost homogeneously mild and that goes for almost everywhere. There has been a distinct lack of frosts, snowfall and generally 'cold' weather. Its basically been mild throughout.

Although Hadley hasnt updated yet today, it was 9.4C to the 8th. Thats a collosal 2.9C above the running average and theres a good chance that today and tomorrow's updates will show a small rise. April 1981 and November 2005 were extremes and in the latter case, was always more likely than in April as the second half of the month is generally much cooler than the first.

The current mild start isnt unprecedented, but with no prospect of a cooldown until at least mid-month, Id say its far from 'normal'.

[reef]

Yesterday was a very mild day in the CET zone, coming in at 10.9C on Hadley.

The average to the 10th is now 9.6C, some 3.0C above average at this point in the month.

Theres no sign of any real cooldown on the models either, with more above average conditions but never exceptionally so. If this were to continue and we had a warm spell in the second half of the month, we could be up there challenging for one of the warmest.

[acbrixton]

Yesterday was a very mild day in the CET zone, coming in at 10.9C on Hadley.

The average to the 10th is now 9.6C, some 3.0C above average at this point in the month.

Theres no sign of any real cooldown on the models either, with more above average conditions but never exceptionally so. If this were to continue and we had a warm spell in the second half of the month, we could be up there challenging for one of the warmest.

Reef, although it has indeed been a very mild start to the month, I think that you have over-stated the anomaly: Philip Eden estimates the mean CET to 10th April as 7.5c thus the Hadley anomaly is 2.1c and not 3c.

regards

ACB

[Stargazer]

Philip Eden currently quotes 9.4 deg C up to the end of yesterday (April 1-13) and Hadley is showing 9.5 rounded up for the same period - and the next few days look mostly well above average too. Unless we get a significant cooldown it looks like we're heading for an exceptional month - perhaps the second warmest after 2007.

[kold weather]

Yep we will certainly be up there as one of the warmest April's but doesn't really feel like its been that warm, probably because of the nights I'd imagine?

Still going to see the next few days rise in terms of CET, esp tomorrow with mins probably only getting down to 7-8C and maxes likely between 18-21C.

[Iceberg]

Its not a case of local weather influencing people's views at all. Average months do have cold and mild spells in the Spring, but the last 8 weeks have been almost homogeneously mild and that goes for almost everywhere. There has been a distinct lack of frosts, snowfall and generally 'cold' weather. Its basically been mild throughout.

Although Hadley hasnt updated yet today, it was 9.4C to the 8th. Thats a collosal 2.9C above the running average and theres a good chance that today and tomorrow's updates will show a small rise. April 1981 and November 2005 were extremes and in the latter case, was always more likely than in April as the second half of the month is generally much cooler than the first.

The current mild start isnt unprecedented, but with no prospect of a cooldown until at least mid-month, Id say its far from 'normal'.

I'd agree completely with that Reef, the 9.5 from Hadley for almost the first half of month (remembering that the second half of April is normally warmer) is a significant deviation, if it can be held on to.

Equally since the mid of Feb as you say cold weather has been severely lacking with only 2 short spells occuring see the below.

[Stargazer]

Yep we will certainly be up there as one of the warmest April's but doesn't really feel like its been that warm, probably because of the nights I'd imagine?

Still going to see the next few days rise in terms of CET, esp tomorrow with mins probably only getting down to 7-8C and maxes likely between 18-21C.

Agreed that very warm days have been rare, but I think the main influence on the CET anomaly has been a lack of cold days or nights. Apart from the miserable Easter weekend (doh!) I don't think we've seen any days below 15 deg C this month, although 18 has only been reached once (yesterday, which almost made up for Friday to Sunday). Even the cool days around Easter were close to average at around 12 deg C.

[damianslaw]

With winds coming in predominantly from a west to south east quarter so far all month, no wonder the CET is so high, this accompanied by the fact that their has been rather alot of cloud cover at night in the CET zone, I'm not surprised with the CET value. Increasingly looking like a very mild CET will be recorded..., case of mother nature evening herself out perhaps.. lets hope she doesn't revert in time for summer once again!

[damianslaw]

Must add to message, though far from a dead cert, if this April does come in as a very mild one, how once again the long range forecasts well the MET anyway will have been wide off the mark calling for only just above average, and others, even Netweather itself who also were caught short by March's above average CET.

feb turned out much milder than expected and the winter as a whole the MET got completely wrong, long range forecasts have been very poor lately it seems..

[The PIT]

Must add to message, though far from a dead cert, if this April does come in as a very mild one, how once again the long range forecasts well the MET anyway will have been wide off the mark calling for only just above average, and others, even Netweather itself who also were caught short by March's above average CET.

feb turned out much milder than expected and the winter as a whole the MET got completely wrong, long range forecasts have been very poor lately it seems..

Well they're going to get the rainfall right. However by the looks of it they'll be struggling to get anywhere near average unless May is the coldest may for many a year.