April CET

[damianslaw]

Well they're going to get the rainfall right. However by the looks of it they'll be struggling to get anywhere near average unless May is the coldest may for many a year.

In recent months I've lost alot of faith in any long range forecast regarding temperatures, particularly the Met who since last summer have got their monthly predictions in most cases consistently wrong..

[reef]

Hadley is on 9.7C to the 15th after yesterday came in at a warm 12.2C.

For comparison, April 2007 was 10.1C at this point.

Temperatures over the next week or so look to continue to be consistently above average. This month could well end up there as one of the warmest.

The last 60 days have been rather mild too:

15th Feb - 15th April: 7.7C (+1.7C)

[morfius]

Hadley is on 9.7C to the 15th after yesterday came in at a warm 12.2C.

For comparison, April 2007 was 10.1C at this point.

Temperatures over the next week or so look to continue to be consistently above average. This month could well end up there as one of the warmest.

The last 60 days have been rather mild too:

15th Feb - 15th April: 7.7C (+1.7C)

What is the warmest April?

[reef]

What is the warmest April?

April 2007 was the warmest by quite some way.

1st-15th April 2007: 10.1C

16th-30th April 2007: 12.3C

Overall mean: 11.2C (Next warmest is April 1865 with 10.6C)

The 15 remaining days this April would have to average 12.7C to equal that record. A rather tall order but not impossible if we have a hot spell at the end.

[damianslaw]

April 2007 was the warmest by quite some way.

1st-15th April 2007: 10.1C

16th-30th April 2007: 12.3C

Overall mean: 11.2C (Next warmest is April 1865 with 10.6C)

The 15 remaining days this April would have to average 12.7C to equal that record. A rather tall order but not impossible if we have a hot spell at the end.

Very much doubt we are course to beat April 2007, it would take an exceptional hot spell towards the end of the month to that, however, certainly on course to record an appreciably above average CET, which I was not expecting!

[Roger J Smith]

There's no list, but I have the feeling all we need is ...

Craig Evans 11.5

Landing zone, eventual 10.7-11.2

Roger whatsit 10.4

everyone else, thanks for coming, drive safely.

I'll go out on a limb and predict a second place finish.

[Scorcher]

The only way is up over the next week for the CET, I certainly can't see any days that will produce drops so it looks like this month could well be one of the warmest on record. I can't see it beating 2007 but there is a good chance it could beat 1865 in my opinion. Beating April 2007 isn't completely out of the question however with daytime highs looking very warm over the next 5 days or so.

[Iceberg]

Currently on 9.8 or 2C above normally according to Philip.

It looks as if this will certainly be a top 5 April and odds on to be the 2nd warmest April ever recorded.

[Don]

Currently on 9.8 or 2C above normally according to Philip.

It looks as if this will certainly be a top 5 April and odds on to be the 2nd warmest April ever recorded.

Yes, it is looking to be a very warm month. So much for the average or colder than average Spring that was forecast. May will have to be very cool indeed for that to happen!

[Optimus Prime]

A very cool May won't happen. It's going to be a very warm spring, whatever happens. Looking at the charts, we're going to be right on the western side of the block meaning the very warm weather will continue.

Range at the moment well over 10.0c. 11.2c is seriously at threat. Looks like this decade will almost certainly beat the 1940s for an unusual run of warm Aprils.

Also looks as if mean minima will be warmer then 2007.

[damianslaw]

This April is certainly shaping up to be a turn up for the books, don't think anyone really foresaw the mildness it has delivered, coming on the back of the record April 2007, can it really become the second warmest April on the record- it would be quite unprecedented to have two such months in the space of two years...

Anyhow, lets just hope it is not a bad omen a la 2007, mother nature does have a habit of balancing herself out...

[Derp Patrol]

It doesn't have the same feel as April 2007, where temps of over 25C were recorded, this could be a funny month, one of the warmest Aprils, yet the temperature so far has failed to surpass 22C

[Lettucing Gutted]

This April is certainly shaping up to be a turn up for the books, don't think anyone really foresaw the mildness it has delivered, coming on the back of the record April 2007, can it really become the second warmest April on the record- it would be quite unprecedented to have two such months in the space of two years...

It isnt unprecedented for August and October. The top 2 warmest Augusts were both in the mid 1990s:-

1) August 1995 19.2C CET

2) August 1997 18.9C CET

The top 3 warmest Octobers have occured in the 6 years from 2001 to 2006:-

1) October 2001 13.3C CET

2) October 2005 13.1C CET

3) October 2006 13C CET

[Thundery wintry showers]

The runs of hot months in recent years is probably related to the recent warming trend. However, it wouldn't be unprecedented taking even a longer-term picture. For instance, two of the warmest Novembers in the CET record occurred in 1938 and 1939.

[reef]

Hadley remains on 9.8C today, though tomorrow should see an increase.

I cant get over how homogeneously mild/warm it has been since mid-February.

In the last 67 days, just 9 days have produced figures below the 1971-2000 mean for the month they are part of. Of those, if you go by the months' running means that drops to just 4 days.

Now you're never going to get everyday above average in a spring month, but thats a remarkable run of above average temperatures by any standard.

[morfius]

It isnt unprecedented for August and October. The top 2 warmest Augusts were both in the mid 1990s:-

1) August 1995 19.2C CET

2) August 1997 18.9C CET

What was the average max and min for that month?

[damianslaw]

Hadley remains on 9.8C today, though tomorrow should see an increase.

I cant get over how homogeneously mild/warm it has been since mid-February.

In the last 67 days, just 9 days have produced figures below the 1971-2000 mean for the month they are part of. Of those, if you go by the months' running means that drops to just 4 days.

Now you're never going to get everyday above average in a spring month, but thats a remarkable run of above average temperatures by any standard.

Yes a case of mother nature making up for the almost consistently below or at average maxes we saw from late nov through to mid feb. Since mid feb we have had alot of anticylonic conditions overhead or westerlies, hardly anything has come at us from a north west to east quarter, and when we have had cold nights these have been made up for by very mild days courtesy of high pressure directly overhead - very much all homegrown stuff..

Can't see such a consistently mild period continuing much longer, think May will be a much more topsy turvy month, hope so in the way as the last 2 months have been exceptionally dull in terms of model watching with hardly any weather to comment on, it has been quite painful at times watching how benign the models have been.

[Nick H]

Again we avoid a cold April. We now have to go back to 1989 for the last significantly below average April (6.6°C).

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes very true- the relatively cool Aprils of 1998, 2000 and 2001 were still only fractionally below the long-term average (regardless of whether 1971-2000 or 1961-90 is used as the baseline). Surprisingly the next coolest April of recent years was the dry sunny one in 1990 which came in at 8.1 (or 7.9 using Manley), also April 1994 with its wintry first third came in close to average.

The recent period has indeed been remarkable for its homogeneity. I agree with the point about this April having a different feel to April 2007. In Cleadon, the first half of April 2007 in particular was very memorable, with plenty of outstandingly warm and sunny weather- 19C on the 4th, and it exceeded 20C on the 15th. In contrast, the year 2009 so far has failed to produce a maximum higher than 16.2C. Also notable is that April 2009 has had no maximum below 9C or minimum below 1C- even April 2007 managed the latter!

Both March and April seem to have been "quietly" very warm rather than through any individual warm spells, though March this year was quite memorable for its sunshine.

[reef]

Yes very true- the relatively cool Aprils of 1998, 2000 and 2001 were still only fractionally below the long-term average (regardless of whether 1971-2000 or 1961-90 is used as the baseline). Surprisingly the next coolest April of recent years was the dry sunny one in 1990 which came in at 8.1 (or 7.9 using Manley), also April 1994 with its wintry first third came in close to average.

The recent period has indeed been remarkable for its homogeneity. I agree with the point about this April having a different feel to April 2007. In Cleadon, the first half of April 2007 in particular was very memorable, with plenty of outstandingly warm and sunny weather- 19C on the 4th, and it exceeded 20C on the 15th. In contrast, the year 2009 so far has failed to produce a maximum higher than 16.2C. Also notable is that April 2009 has had no maximum below 9C or minimum below 1C- even April 2007 managed the latter!

Both March and April seem to have been "quietly" very warm rather than through any individual warm spells, though March this year was quite memorable for its sunshine.

Yes March and April have been quietly warm though by different methods. March had rather warm days balanced out by cool nights (a symptom of the clear skies you mention). April on the other hand has had warm days but very warm nights. The effect is that March felt warmer than it was and April feels cooler (though the last week or so has negated that impression with its warmer days).

Hadley is now on 9.9C. Today's minima is down as a collosal 9.7C, so it looks odds-on we'll reach 10.0C tomorrow.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Again we avoid a cold April. We now have to go back to 1989 for the last significantly below average April (6.6°C).

Yes, the absence of significantly below average Aprils is very true of the last two decades - and also in fact, there has also been a significant absence of below average Februarys, Mays, Junes, Augusts, and Septembers in recent years - we have not had a significantly below average February since 1996 - even Feb 2006 was only 0.1 below the 61-90 mean. We have not had a below average May since 1996, we have not had a significantly below average June since 1991 - even Junes 1999 and 2008 were only fractionally below the long term mean both on 61-90 and 71-00. We have only had one below average August since 1993 - Aug 2007, and this was only slightly below average. We have not had a significantly below average September since 1994 - even Sep 2008 was only 0.1 below the 61-90 mean.

[Weather-history]

It isnt unprecedented for August and October. The top 2 warmest Augusts were both in the mid 1990s:-

1) August 1995 19.2C CET

2) August 1997 18.9C CET

The top 3 warmest Octobers have occured in the 6 years from 2001 to 2006:-

1) October 2001 13.3C CET

2) October 2005 13.1C CET

3) October 2006 13C CET

5 of the top 20 warmest Aprils on record occurred in the 1940s

The 3rd warmest April which was 1943 was followed by the 7th warmest April in 1944 and then joint 10 warmest April in 1945

[damianslaw]

Odd month in how this month is looking as going down as one of the warmest Aprils on record, however, we have at no time been anywhere to record any high maxima for the month the highest being a poor 21 degrees possibly 22 degrees , it has been the low diurnal range this month which has had a major impact on the CET and for that reason many I think will find it hard to think of anything memorable about this month temp wise and indeed weatherwise - ot has been exceptional so far for complete absence of any weather events to speak of whatsoever and fast becoming a month that I will be gald to see the back of! the weather doesn't get more dull than April 2009.

[Methuselah]

One memorable thing about this month has been, that I've used virtually no electricity! :lol:

[Scorcher]

Odd month in how this month is looking as going down as one of the warmest Aprils on record, however, we have at no time been anywhere to record any high maxima for the month the highest being a poor 21 degrees possibly 22 degrees , it has been the low diurnal range this month which has had a major impact on the CET and for that reason many I think will find it hard to think of anything memorable about this month temp wise and indeed weatherwise - ot has been exceptional so far for complete absence of any weather events to speak of whatsoever and fast becoming a month that I will be gald to see the back of! the weather doesn't get more dull than April 2009.

I will certainly remember this month- from my point of view the lack of cold has been wonderful. One thing I can't stand is when winter extends into April, so this has really been my ideal April.