Carinth's Arctic Sea Ice Watch Thread

[oldsnowywizard]

i couldnt find the last thread so thought it was time to start a new one..

the situation today..

im sure Carinth has some thoughts!

[Methuselah]

Not much sign there, of a decade's cooling?

[carinthian]

Oldsnowywizard,

Thanks for starting up the Spring Discussion. I have rather neglected this thread over the past winter, mainly because I have been digging myself out of snow for much of the time. First time I have seen snowdrifts up to the roof gutters. Still buried in the white stuff at the present time. Yes, will be interesting to see the rate of ice loss this coming 6 months compared to the last 3 years , following a nearer to average winter in the polar regions. Will collect some data in the next few weeks to see what gains in the thickness of ice has been recored.

Best regards, by the way its snowing again !

C

[stewfox]

i couldnt find the last thread so thought it was time to start a new one..

the situation today..

im sure Carinth has some thoughts!

Yes I dont know where the old thread went ? A conspiracy theory in the pipe line ?

The 2008/9 ' line' not playing ball for those that wish to see a ice free artic in the next 20 years

At this rate of increase the sea ice extent will be back to long term averages shortly

What do the doom and gloom mungers have to say or do they now 'dismiss' the 'line' again as its not playing ball

Edited March 22, 2009 by stewfox

[Northernlights]

Don"t know if this is relevent but all the harbour webcams in Svalbard just now appear to show a frozen sea with snowcover or is this just a surface hugging mist . Haven"t seen this in the past few years much if it is totally ice covered and not mist. Has it been a colder winter up there?

[oldsnowywizard]

Yes I dont know where the old thread went ? A conspiracy theory in the pipe line ?

The 2008/9 ' line' not playing ball for those that wish to see a ice free artic in the next 20 years

At this rate of increase the sea ice extent will be back to long term averages shortly

What do the doom and gloom mungers have to say or do they now 'dismiss' the 'line' again as its not playing ball

hmm not quite sure i agree with how that comes across. remember the charts above only show ice extent, which of course will vary greatly from year to year and will be influenced heavily by lets say 100s of variables!

if you take ice extent as the only indicator of ice increase or decline i imagine you would be greatly concerned that there was a loss of about 250k sq kms of ice a few weeks back... this with very cold temps pretty much everywhere!?

the key will be ice thickness. reports on this tend to be limited.. for example i did read somewhere that the US armys buoys have actually shown an increase in sea ice thickness this year.. but then they only have about 6 bouys out there and havent had them out long enough to determine trends.

hopefully Carinth with his contacts will have some local positive stories.. but IMO its a little too early in the melt season to be celebrating a U turn in ice levels..

lets see what happens in Sep.. hopefully another small rcovery but im not holding my breath

[carinthian]

Don"t know if this is relevent but all the harbour webcams in Svalbard just now appear to show a frozen sea with snowcover or is this just a surface hugging mist . Haven"t seen this in the past few years much if it is totally ice covered and not mist. Has it been a colder winter up there?

Yes, Northern lights, all harbours and fjords are locked in sea ice at the moment. The Hansbreen Glacier is currently holding a huge depth of snowfall. During years of advance of Arctic Ice limits, all of the Svalbard Archipelago becomes ice locked, even some way out into the Greenland Sea, which carries the Atlantic Drift Poleward. This has not happened this season, but maybe the first signs of a start of winter advances during the coming years.

C

[morfius]

Certainly very cold up there - the forecast suggests temperatures hovering around -20C for the rest of the week!

[carinthian]

The very latest March Reports from the buoys operating from the High Arctic do indicate that the ice has thickened by at least half a metre since March 2008. Good news, yes, but this provides little information about the longer term ice trends, as the ice sheet drifts with wind and moves clockwise with the trans-arctic current to different locations and is hard to monitor on a yearly basis. However, data indications, show the ice will continue to thicken over the next few weeks with a notiable expansion of the sheet in the North Barent.

C

[Thundery wintry showers]

Last year was slightly encouraging, but much less so than the 1995/96 season, when after a big melt in 1995, 1996 saw a recovery right back to the average for the 1990s. Last year, as the graphs show, had a slight recovery but still comfortably the second lowest extent on record.

Also worth noting is the fact that current ice coverage is approximately the same as last year's spring, so we aren't coming down from a higher maximum. Much will hinge on how the summer pans out synoptically, but as with last year, we must bear in mind that we need more favourable synoptics than usual in order to get a sustained recovery, due to the large amounts of first-year ice up there.

If we do not see any major declines into late April/May then it will be cause for encouragement.

[morfius]

Whenever I see these maps, I always wonder how there could be so much ice off the eastern Danish coast - is this just a radar error or does all this ice actually exist.

If so, how - I doubt it could have just formed there seeing as its not been particularly cold there.

Or has it somehow drifted from the northern baltic?

any ideas?

[oldsnowywizard]

drifting ice i would imagine, further added to by snow fall over the winter period.. IMO

check this out... very useful!!

shows sea ice still increasing in thickness.

[oldsnowywizard]

another thing of interest looking at the archive charts for the 850 temps....

we have quite an intense cold pool of 850s which are stuck over the arctic, up until the 9th of April there are still very cold -30s 850s and 2m temps!!.. this can only bode well for the continuation of the ice thickness growth in these areas.. i dont think we worry too much about the fringe areas as these go every year.

compare this with the chart for 2007

obviously we need favourable conditions up there for as long as possible to reduce ice melt.. this is the first time since 2005 when the cold pooling has actually been in the best position.. ie over the basin..

[Polar Continental]

Looking bleak at Polish station in Svalbard currently, but at least it’s not cold and dark any more, just cold and light.

Paul

[carinthian]

Looking bleak at Polish station in Svalbard currently, but at least it’s not cold and dark any more, just cold and light.

Paul

First week of the Midnight sun in Spitsbergen but winter still lingers with tempertures below the end of April normal.

C

First week of the Midnight sun in Spitsbergen but winter still lingers with tempertures below the end of April normal.

C

Still plenty of ice in Svalbard harbour.

C

[oldsnowywizard]

temps are rising though, Barrow shows +1 degrees and 3 days ago it was -17! good to see that the ice extent line from NSIDC is currently very close to the average! that might sound bizare but we havent been close to that for years!!!

[carinthian]

Morning,

We will soon be entering the critical ice melt period. Again predictions of a record loss of first year ice are being talked about. Last summer recorded a significant loss, but less so than the summer before. The all important factor is how thick is this winters ice formation ?

Radar Altimetry data and sensor measurements in one particular location is always going to be difficult to monitor due to the trans Arctic drift. 6 feet of first year ice is regarded as the norm . My observation is that this winter has produced a good first years formation and will be less resistant to summer melt. However, as always, time will tell.

C

[Thundery wintry showers]

Could well be a bit of early-season melt in the next week as plumes of relatively warm air move right up to the pole from at least two different directions, squeezing out that cold pool that has resided over the Arctic for most of the last month.

[karyo]

Morning,

We will soon be entering the critical ice melt period. Again predictions of a record loss of first year ice are being talked about. Last summer recorded a significant loss, but less so than the summer before. The all important factor is how thick is this winters ice formation ?

Radar Altimetry data and sensor measurements in one particular location is always going to be difficult to monitor due to the trans Arctic drift. 6 feet of first year ice is regarded as the norm . My observation is that this winter has produced a good first years formation and will be less resistant to summer melt. However, as always, time will tell.

C

Carinth, do you mean more?

Karyo

[carinthian]

Carinth, do you mean more?

Karyo

Karyo, well spotted, yes MORE.

Just shows someone out there reads the post !

Thanks

C

[oldsnowywizard]

Could well be a bit of early-season melt in the next week as plumes of relatively warm air move right up to the pole from at least two different directions, squeezing out that cold pool that has resided over the Arctic for most of the last month.

Not too sure about that TWS.. the GFS always warms up the 850 temps too quickly for example a week ago it showed no -25 or 20 850 temps, as you can see today there are cold pools with these kinds of values. the warm air will hit the fringes, which isnt a shock at this time of year.. ie Bearing sea . the key is that the basin doesnt get any warm plumes as this is where the sea ice tends to be. 2007 had an early plume which helped wipe out a vast amount of ice..thankfully no +0 temps forecast as far as i can tell. +5 850s tend to equate to +0 temps up there.

sea ice continues to thicken.. Barrow probe is showing -5 and 1.38m of sea ice.

if you look on page one of this thread you will see the latest graphs. which are quite positive.. IJIS in fact shows levels at the moment are better than since 2002! for sea ice extent.

[oldsnowywizard]

we are sooo close to the long term mean now, please review the two charts on page one of this thread... will we or wont we reach it? that would be quite an achievement considering the record ice loss of the last few years!...

cryopsheres image does show some decreasing concentration in the basin, which could be concerning.. not sure if this is due to sun melt, or just natural water current break up.... temps are still below 0 in this area.

[carinthian]

we are sooo close to the long term mean now, please review the two charts on page one of this thread... will we or wont we reach it? that would be quite an achievement considering the record ice loss of the last few years!...

cryopsheres image does show some decreasing concentration in the basin, which could be concerning.. not sure if this is due to sun melt, or just natural water current break up.... temps are still below 0 in this area.

Hi OSW,

That break up in the basin usually occurs in the same location. I think solar radiation and surface heat advection can be ruled out at the moment as the cause. More likely to be a heat sink in the Ocean floor that transfers thermal energy ( in a form of semi-fluids and gases).

I am pleased to note the late spring formation of ice in the Barent. The recorded amount is presently a marked increase on this time last year.

C

[masheeuk]

Hi Carinth

I have been reading this thread since joing and was wondering if you could post some of the urls from where you get your information from please.

[carinthian]

Hi Carinth

I have been reading this thread since joing and was wondering if you could post some of the urls from where you get your information from please.

No particular sites" masheeuk", just years of study of ice mapping and local information obtained from diaries and journals and now more technical information increasingly provided by contacts I have at the Norwegian Met and DMI. Reading old weather log journals can give you a good in-sight on ice condition( pre 1979- age of satellite measurements) you may be able to obtain these by subscribing to the RMS journals.

C