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Carinth's Arctic Sea Ice Watch Thread


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Posted
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland

Barrow ice thickness still increasing, albeit at a slower rate. currently recording 1.39m and -9 degrees C

Barents ice extent still extending slowly too..

from page 1 - this year still doing much better than any of the 9 previous ones - IJIS - although the rate is dropping quite alot on a daily basis..

no warm plumes forecast for the next week or so which is good and widespread below 0 temps. Also the ice looks to have recovered slightly from the supposed heat sink, although this looks to have moved further south directly over the north pole now.. using cryopshere today.

all in all, not bad at all.

antarctica still above the mean in terms of ice extent, 3rd year on the trot now..

overall global sea ice extent still above the mean!

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Barrow ice thickness still increasing, albeit at a slower rate. currently recording 1.39m and -9 degrees C

Barents ice extent still extending slowly too..

from page 1 - this year still doing much better than any of the 9 previous ones - IJIS - although the rate is dropping quite alot on a daily basis..

no warm plumes forecast for the next week or so which is good and widespread below 0 temps. Also the ice looks to have recovered slightly from the supposed heat sink, although this looks to have moved further south directly over the north pole now.. using cryopshere today.

all in all, not bad at all.

antarctica still above the mean in terms of ice extent, 3rd year on the trot now..

overall global sea ice extent still above the mean!

Yes,following a cold Arctic April the ice extent is presently close to the 79-2000 Median as produced from Satellite data.

Obviously, a lot of this ice is first year ice and two main questions are to asked ;

1. How thick is this first year ice ?

2. How much will be left by peak melt month ( September )

Most models continue with the prediction for recent summer trends to continue. However, non predicted the late start to this seasons melt. So is the ice thicker ? ( latest data is now showing this to be the case ). As ever,time will tell, but the late start to melt season must be better news than some scientist have predicted the continued acceleration to summer melt down.

C

Edited by carinthian
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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey

A little bit confused the usual place I look at for see ice still shows good ice coverage http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg but when I look at this web site http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php that is now showing closere to the last few years. They cannot both be right. Does anyone know which has been accurate over the years?

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

the last graph clearly shows 2009 to have more ice than the previous years shown..also shows the melt rate so far has been less than in previous years as well.

so i would say both are right..the top one clearly is an average against the running mean since 1979..so is slightly below average (which is what i would expect to see)..the bottom graph is just the last 5 yrs.

Edited by cheeky_monkey
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Posted
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland

one shows 30% sex ice cover and greater and the other i believe shows 15% (cT) CT also has a lag time of around 7 days on its graphs, whereas the other is probably up to date..

page 1 of this thread has a few other images for reference..

temps still below 0 for much of the basin, 850s forecast for this time a week ago where set to be under -10 but colder pools are proving hard to shift.. still some -20 850 temps... and widespread -10 2 m temps...

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
one shows 30% sex ice cover and greater and the other i believe shows 15% (cT) CT also has a lag time of around 7 days on its graphs, whereas the other is probably up to date..

page 1 of this thread has a few other images for reference..

temps still below 0 for much of the basin, 850s forecast for this time a week ago where set to be under -10 but colder pools are proving hard to shift.. still some -20 850 temps... and widespread -10 2 m temps...

Thats a typo and a half :D

Upper air temperatures look rather similar to this point in 2007, but both years are much better than 2008. I think what has more effect are if plumes of warm air are sent deep into the Arctic. I would be looking at synoptics rather than temperatures.

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Posted
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland

oh dear, after such a good start it looks like things are going a little bit pete tong. general situation is the ice around the fringes are melting away quickly, far more so than normal. ice thickness in places doesnt seem to be suffering to much.. Barrow being a case in point. we will have to see if the trend continues of a below normal ice melt season

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland

update time.. please look at the first page of the thread to see the latest situation...

IJIS - does anyone know why for every year the ice extent goes up? levels are on a parr with last year, which although we have lost the good start, still means we are above previous years values.

NSIDC - also showing levels dropping to last years values..

barrow still reporting 1.40cm ice thickness and a temp of 0.. ice thickness starts to reduce from around 10th June onewards. the ice looks to be a tad thicker this year, which is good news...

temps in most places are still below 0.

a brief warm plume comes up from Alaska but is quickly replaced with cooler air..

NPEO web cam from last sunday still shows pure ice cover... i cant remember when we usually start seeing melt pools.. i thought it was around this time last year?

what is impressive is this..

sfctmpmer_07b.fnl.gif

im pretty sure that over the last few years there have been more positive temp anomolies over the N hemisphere.. and certainly little or no negative anomolies over the arctic?!?

of course temp is just one of many variables that can effect sea ice...

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Posted
  • Location: SW London
  • Location: SW London

Woah, it's roasting down in Antarctica - it's only -40C up on the ice sheet when the June average for the south pole is -65C

edit: or, just perhaps, the scale doesn't go down low enough?

There is certainly a big +ve anomaly though over Antarctica....

Edited by morfius
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Erratic graph results produced by University of Illinois during May are inconclusive. So back to the best information available from St Petersburg. Latest daily drift charts forecast up to the 9th June continue to show locked ice on the Arctic Rim from the Lena Delta out in the Laptev Sea, eastwards along the Siberian Sea . It also appears a mixture of first year ice and older ice flushed out of the Artic Basin is locked in the Kara Sea with no navigation through there at the moment.

Satellite pictures show ice still locked along the Northern Canadian Arctic Rim.

Certainly a colder picture to start the summer season in the Arctic, however the warmest period is still some time off.

Looking at web-cams from Svalbard, early summer snow retention is more impressive than for a good few years.

That may be a good indication for a comparison. The next 4 weeks will show if the first years ice is thick enough to withstand peak solar radiation and poleward advected heat plumes.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland

barrow ice station reports thickness of just 1.01 metres thats a whopping 39cm drop in less than a week!! temps have been around the 0 mark, heavy snow has fallen recently, which indicates to me that there must be something happening to the water underneath the ice? if the ice melt rate continues at this rate then Barrow will be ice free in 2.5 weeks!

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Hi OSW, the IJIS have a summer algorithm to help deal with meltwater pools that could be mistaken for open water hence the 'jump' at the start of June each year.

I cannot buy into Corinth's optimism.

The 'locked in' areas don't look to be so from the MODIS images we all view.

The NW Passage has started to be eroded from both ends now.Large bergs and plates are drifting down the East Coast of Greenland (as they did most of last summer/Autumn......into that warm water anom we see positioned there).

The clear water from The Canadian Archipelago through to Barrents is new to me with Svalbard clearly visible in open water apart from drift ice to it's northern shores.

Even the areas above 75N are now very fragmented with the first bits of open water showing through.

The 'bottom up' melt at Barrow may well be symptomatic of the melt across the Basin with warm basal waters eating the ice from below as warmer air melts down from above.

Though too soon to be definite (mid July onwards will show the real state of play) I am concerned about ice loss this summer with the beginnings of El-Nino impacting from the equator outwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland

thanks GW,

looking at the archives for Barrow, the melt has started earlier than last year.. so something isnt quite right here.. current levels are now 98cms! there is a foot of snow on top of the ice..

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Hi OSW, the IJIS have a summer algorithm to help deal with meltwater pools that could be mistaken for open water hence the 'jump' at the start of June each year.

I cannot buy into Corinth's optimism.

The 'locked in' areas don't look to be so from the MODIS images we all view.

The NW Passage has started to be eroded from both ends now.Large bergs and plates are drifting down the East Coast of Greenland (as they did most of last summer/Autumn......into that warm water anom we see positioned there).

The clear water from The Canadian Archipelago through to Barrents is new to me with Svalbard clearly visible in open water apart from drift ice to it's northern shores.

Even the areas above 75N are now very fragmented with the first bits of open water showing through.

The 'bottom up' melt at Barrow may well be symptomatic of the melt across the Basin with warm basal waters eating the ice from below as warmer air melts down from above.

Though too soon to be definite (mid July onwards will show the real state of play) I am concerned about ice loss this summer with the beginnings of El-Nino impacting from the equator outwards.

i hope you dont mind me asking but are you always this pesimistic?

every single post i read is doom and gloom,

and even so a weak el nino is most likely nothing dramatic,

so not expected to have much effect on the arctic,

and ofcoarse some places will have faster melts than others in and around the arctic its called weather.

some places will have warmer temps than other this happens all over the planet so the arctic is no exception,

warm plumes have effected the arctic since the birth of earth also there have been times in earths history when ice was lower than 2007.

and it would seem there is nothing to worry about,

with growing glacers and a colder arctic winter this year there does not seem to be any reason to panic.

and even if it does melt it will grow back sooner or later.

and as for waiting for july,s melt,

ofcoarse it will happen this is a natural cycle wether it be record breaking or not is anyones guess,

but at the moment it is fine,

totally normal. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Belper
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it
  • Location: Belper
i hope you dont mind me asking but are you always this pesimistic?

every single post i read is doom and gloom,

and even so a weak el nino is most likely nothing dramatic,

so not expected to have much effect on the arctic,

and ofcoarse some places will have faster melts than others in and around the arctic its called weather.

some places will have warmer temps than other this happens all over the planet so the arctic is no exception,

warm plumes have effected the arctic since the birth of earth also there have been times in earths history when ice was lower than 2007.

and it would seem there is nothing to worry about,

with growing glacers and a colder arctic winter this year there does not seem to be any reason to panic.

and even if it does melt it will grow back sooner or later.

and as for waiting for july,s melt,

ofcoarse it will happen this is a natural cycle wether it be record breaking or not is anyones guess,

but at the moment it is fine,

totally normal. :cray:

Badboy consider the basics.

  1. There are billions of humans destoying/changing the environment on a massive scale (indisputable i would say).
  2. As our weather is reflective of/linked into our environment it is of course impacted upon by such changes.
  3. The mass of scientists (who are better placed to judge than you or i) have been saying for years now that the consequence of such changes is global warming - which we are experiencing now.

Now of course, we are not in a position to see into the future but, glibly stating that such consequences as total arctic ice melt etc is "nothing to worry about" just is not good enough i am afraid. Your blithe confidence in the power of the earth to rebound just because it always has (that seems the crux of your argument as far as i can make out) is worrying.

Questions for you:

Have you travelled much?? Have you witnessed the mess we are making of the world (UK is pretty removed from the worst of these excesses)

Is your positions that of being the devils advocate?

Do you really believe in what you say.

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
Badboy consider the basics.

  1. There are billions of humans destoying/changing the environment on a massive scale (indisputable i would say).
  2. As our weather is reflective of/linked into our environment it is of course impacted upon by such changes.
  3. The mass of scientists (who are better placed to judge than you or i) have been saying for years now that the consequence of such changes is global warming - which we are experiencing now.

Now of course, we are not in a position to see into the future but, glibly stating that such consequences as total arctic ice melt etc is "nothing to worry about" just is not good enough i am afraid. Your blithe confidence in the power of the earth to rebound just because it always has (that seems the crux of your argument as far as i can make out) is worrying.

Questions for you:

Have you travelled much?? Have you witnessed the mess we are making of the world (UK is pretty removed from the worst of these excesses)

Is your positions that of being the devils advocate?

Do you really believe in what you say.

This is ment to be a joke yeah. Even if it is its the biggest load of garbage i have read on a netweather forum.

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Just a reminder that this is a thread about the Sea Ice this year and is not even in the Global Warming / Climate Change area.

While off course AGW and its validity is related to Sea Ice retention, this is not the thread for this type of debate, there are plenty of threads in the GW/CC for this type of discussion, an further off topic comments in this thread will either be moved to that area or deleted.

Just a gentle reminder.

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Posted
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland

just seen this from the barrow website... reportig 94cms of ice thickness and -11 c//

We are currently (June 12) in the process of removing instruments from the ice.

Data quality is not assured starting June 3 due to movement of the instruments in melting ice. The following measurements have known systematic errors: water depth reported is too shallow; ice thickness reported is too thin; snow cover reported is too thick.

Edited by oldsnowywizard
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

A warning (as I posted in the climate change ice thread as well)- high pressure looks like dominating over the pole in the near future, which is what happened in 2007. Could be in for some significant melts later in the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Morning,

Nice shot of cruise ship heading into Svalbard Harbour.

C

post-3489-1245577909_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
Badboy consider the basics.

  1. There are billions of humans destoying/changing the environment on a massive scale (indisputable i would say).
  2. As our weather is reflective of/linked into our environment it is of course impacted upon by such changes.
  3. The mass of scientists (who are better placed to judge than you or i) have been saying for years now that the consequence of such changes is global warming - which we are experiencing now.

Now of course, we are not in a position to see into the future but, glibly stating that such consequences as total arctic ice melt etc is "nothing to worry about" just is not good enough i am afraid. Your blithe confidence in the power of the earth to rebound just because it always has (that seems the crux of your argument as far as i can make out) is worrying.

Questions for you:

Have you travelled much?? Have you witnessed the mess we are making of the world (UK is pretty removed from the worst of these excesses)

Is your positions that of being the devils advocate?

Do you really believe in what you say.

*yawn*

Slide this over to the GW thread please Mods

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