Carinth's Arctic Sea Ice Watch Thread

[Mondy]

Yes, I am a member, C. Quite a few on here are members over there. I know the owner of SC24.com and helped him set the forum up on Day 1, but time limits me from contributing that much now.

PS I'd be grateful for a link to the source that they were stuck in the ice until the breaker(s) got there - as I understood it they were accompanied by it/them all the way, perhaps at the Russians' insistence on a precautionary basis. Indeed I specifically asked for info on the question of whether any ice-breaking was needed or not. If you have that I'd very much like to know. I suggest, though, you reply in the thread to avoid us getting into the wrong sort of discussions on here - something Carinthian has understandably asked us to avoid.

I'll give you a quote and then the source.

In the end, we arrived to a dense barrier of ice that effectively set a stop in our way.

After a small consultation within the team, we decided to sail southwards. This was not an easy decision to take, because ice was on its way there with the help of the wind, and in towards land. But according to the latest ice map, a northerly route would be an enormous detour. The last thing we wanted was to get stuck between ice and land. It was several nervous hours before we could eventually find a southerly route through the worst ice and sail east again.

Right before darkness was to fall, we saw on our AIS and radar three ships on their way towards us. Via VHF radio, we could gladly verify that it was our friend Captain Dimitry, who onboard his icebreaker was escorting two cargo ships west through the ice. Fun to see Dimitry again, who we met in Saint Petersburg during our sailing training as well as in Murmansk during the actual trip. Dimitry's ship, Fifty Years of Victory, is the world's largest icebreaker and runs on two nuclear reactors that together put out 75,000 horsepower.

http://www.skinnarmo.com/ - from the Blog dated Sept 1, 2009.

And, I think a picture tells a thousands words. This is the biggest Nuclear Icebreaker in action leading the way (not escorting !! ) the two aforementioned ships.

During the passed days which led through the East Siberian Sea, the Sannikov Strait and the Vilkizki Strait as northernmost part the Beluga vessels were part of a little convoy behind the Russian Atomflot-ice breakers “50 let Pobedy” and “Rossia”.

http://www.beluga-group.com/en/#News-details

Oh, and a slightly different take on things here :-)

Evening,

Looks like a good retention of summer sea ice in the Upper Greenland Sea. This will be a mixture of first year ice and older ice flushed out from the Arctic Basin by the trans-Arctic drift. Temperatures dropping fairly quickly at the moment, so I expect some locking and growth in the area over the coming days. I noticed on the Svalbard web-cam

the first snowfalls to sea level this morning. Winters on its way for some !

C

Indeed. Heavy snowfall was reported over Kangerlussuaq, Greenland last Saturday.

Edited September 17, 2009 by Mondy

[J10]

On the 13th Sept, the ice extent fell back to 5,249,844sqkm, Since then there have been 2 rises and 1 fall, and we are now back to 5,291,094.

Has the low point been reached well quite possibly,

I will do a summary at the end of September, as by then we should confirmed figures of the low point of the ice extent.

[carinthian]

Hi Jackone,

Thanks for the monitor of recent ice areas. Its a big help on this thread. Keep the updates coming in. The situation warrants accuate reports and is of course of great interest to a lot of folk here and world wide.

C

[phil nw.]

Evening,

Looks like a good retention of summer sea ice in the Upper Greenland Sea. This will be a mixture of first year ice and older ice flushed out from the Arctic Basin by the trans-Arctic drift. Temperatures dropping fairly quickly at the moment, so I expect some locking and growth in the area over the coming days. I noticed on the Svalbard web-cam

the first snowfalls to sea level this morning. Winters on its way for some !

C

Hi Carinthian,

I thought i would post a picture of said snow.

An early taste of Winter up there.Good to see.

[parmenides3]

The melt season is now semi-officially over:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html

Please note the comments about this year's levels and the prognosis for the future. :)P

[Norway Nut]

The melt season is now semi-officially over:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html

Please note the comments about this year's levels and the prognosis for the future. :)P

I suppose you could look at it like that i.e a pessamistic outlook. Personally, I'm pleased that there seems to be a minor reversal going on. Admittedly I have to wait another 10 years to see a trend develop.

[parmenides3]

I suppose you could look at it like that i.e a pessamistic outlook. Personally, I'm pleased that there seems to be a minor reversal going on. Admittedly I have to wait another 10 years to see a trend develop.

There's interesting debate in the science blogs about how significant 2007 was; was this a 'freak' year, or 'the shape of things to come', or 'the sign of a step-change in the sea-ice metric'? Even the scientists aren't agreed about this. As I have suggested elsewhere, though, it is the larger picture which is the cause for concern. Have you read the ICARP materials?

You can imagine that the past 2 years represent a 'minor reversal', but if 2007 hadn't happened, how would 2008 and 2009 look compared to 2000, or 2005, or any other years? There's still a lot less ice in the Arctic now than there used to be.

P

[weather eater]

There's interesting debate in the science blogs about how significant 2007 was; was this a 'freak' year, or 'the shape of things to come', or 'the sign of a step-change in the sea-ice metric'? Even the scientists aren't agreed about this. As I have suggested elsewhere, though, it is the larger picture which is the cause for concern. Have you read the ICARP materials?

You can imagine that the past 2 years represent a 'minor reversal', but if 2007 hadn't happened, how would 2008 and 2009 look compared to 2000, or 2005, or any other years? There's still a lot less ice in the Arctic now than there used to be.

P

Absolutely, I made this point a couple of weeks ago, 2007 was a blip and it would be better to bear this in mind when gauging any recovery.

[parmenides3]

Absolutely, I made this point a couple of weeks ago, 2007 was a blip and it would be better to bear this in mind when gauging any recovery.

Ah, but how much of a 'blip' was it, and did it have an impact which makes long-term reversal more difficult in future? I don't know, but my suspicion is that 2008 and 2009 might have been less extreme, given the conditions, if 2007 hadn't happened. Finally, is it likely that we'll get another 2007 soon, and what would the impact of that be?

P

[weather eater]

Ah, but how much of a 'blip' was it, and did it have an impact which makes long-term reversal more difficult in future? I don't know, but my suspicion is that 2008 and 2009 might have been less extreme, given the conditions, if 2007 hadn't happened. Finally, is it likely that we'll get another 2007 soon, and what would the impact of that be?

P

There’s a lot in what you say, but I think we have to look on it as a blip until such time as something similar occurs. Of course if we do see a reoccurrence’s in the next few years, then that would be a significant development.

[Mondy]

"Once again this year, the Northern Sea Route through the Arctic Ocean along the coast of Siberia opened. Although some ice remained in certain regions, two German ships managed to navigate the passage with Russian icebreaker escorts. Russian vessels have traversed the passage many times over the years, but as ice extent drops there is more interest from other nations. As in 2008, the shallow Amundsen's Northwest Passage briefly opened, but the deeper Parry's Channel of the Northwest Passage did not. In 2007, both channels were open."

Fair reporting from NSIDC

[J10]

Today's provisional figure is 5,452,031, and this years low point is all but confirmed at 5,249,844 on the 13th September. How does this compare to past years.

• 6,032,031 2003 -782,187
  
• 5,784,688 2004 -534,844
  
• 5,315,156 2005 -65,312
  
• 5,781,719 2006 -531,875
  
• 4,254,531 2007 995,313
  
• 4,707,813 2008 542,031
  
• 5,249,844 2009
  
• 5,312,656 03-08 -62,812
  

Taken from the Sea ice thread.

[masheeuk]

Looking at a couple of sites for data, there cetainnly seems to be quite a hiccup in the building of ice. It now appears to have dropped back below the 2005 level.

[carinthian]

Evening, my favourite place, Jan Mayen. First snowfall of the season. Mid-day freezing level 97m and temp

of -9C at 850 hpa level.

C

[Mr Maunder]

Looking at a couple of sites for data, there cetainnly seems to be quite a hiccup in the building of ice. It now appears to have dropped back below the 2005 level.

I you look at the numbers on the IJIS site there will always be disappointments as the numbers can, at this time of year, fluctuate up and down on a daily basis. However, since the equinox the trend is now starting to move steadily upwards as the real ice growth season starts.

At this stage it looks like 2005 ice is the closest fit to 2009 ice, but I'll leave any proper judgement untill March 2010!

MM

[sunny starry skies]

The key issue still seems to be the hammering that the amount of multi-year ice has taken. It means that although the area of ice in the Arctic has increased (albeit that it is still the third-smallest extent on record), the volume of ice may not be much greater. Consequently, the Arctic ice is particularly vulnerable to any further warm years until the amount of thicker multi-year ice increases.

[carinthian]

Evening, nice shot of the weather station site on Jan Mayen.The persistant Nly wind has blown the snow into nice drifts along the fore-shore.Widespread early cold pooling over much of the Greenland Sea with 850 ph temperatures below -10c. This looks good for speedy formation of sea ice and the East Greeland current will send the ice flow

as far south as Scoresby Sound by this time next week.

C

[carinthian]

Evening, nice shot of the weather station site on Jan Mayen.The persistant Nly wind has blown the snow into nice drifts along the fore-shore.Widespread early cold pooling over much of the Greenland Sea with 850 ph temperatures below -10c. This looks good for speedy formation of sea ice and the East Greeland current will send the ice flow

as far south as Scoresby Sound by this time next week.

C

Love this latest shot from Jan Mayen weather station. Will not get many more days at this time of the year when you can see the Beerenberg volcano that clear. Temperature on top of there -20C. Surface temperature -1c

and 850hpa temp of -12C. However, the wind has eased, so should be nice. Wish I was there !

C

[carinthian]

Love this latest shot from Jan Mayen weather station. Will not get many more days at this time of the year when you can see the Beerenberg volcano that clear. Temperature on top of there -20C. Surface temperature -1c

and 850hpa temp of -12C. However, the wind has eased, so should be nice. Wish I was there !

C

Thats a better shot.

C

[BUSHY]

The key issue still seems to be the hammering that the amount of multi-year ice has taken. It means that although the area of ice in the Arctic has increased (albeit that it is still the third-smallest extent on record), the volume of ice may not be much greater. Consequently, the Arctic ice is particularly vulnerable to any further warm years until the amount of thicker multi-year ice increases.

Or not, see here http://www.research-in-germany.de/coremedia/generator/dachportal/en/07__News_20and_20Events/VDITZ_20-_20News_26Events/Archiv/2009-05-08_2C_20Research_20aircraft_20Polar_205_20finishes_20Arctic_20expedition_20-_20Unique_20measurement_20flights_20in_20the_20central_20Arctic_20completed,sourcePageId=12354.html

[jethro]

Does anyone know where I can find dates for the official minimum extent? I'm trying to find out if the Arctic is beginning to freeze over at a later date each year.

Ta muchly

[J10]

Does anyone know where I can find dates for the official minimum extent? I'm trying to find out if the Arctic is beginning to freeze over at a later date each year.

Ta muchly

From IJIS the dates of minimum extent are

18th Sept 03

11th Sept 04

22nd Sept 05

14th Sept 06

24th Sept 07

09th Sept 08

13th Sept 09

[oldsnowywizard]

after such a positive start to the cold pooling over the arctic, the situation has become quite terrible. compare the 850 temps to previous years and we are not even close. whats worse is there is a lot of warm air being pumped into the arctic over Alaska. of course the ice will continue to grow, but for now i dobt it will be at the near vertical rate that we have seen in the past at this time of year. The cold air is being sent stright out of the arctic so bad news from an ice persepectivem but maybe good in terms of cooling the continents early... we shall see what happens

[reef]

after such a positive start to the cold pooling over the arctic, the situation has become quite terrible. compare the 850 temps to previous years and we are not even close. whats worse is there is a lot of warm air being pumped into the arctic over Alaska. of course the ice will continue to grow, but for now i dobt it will be at the near vertical rate that we have seen in the past at this time of year. The cold air is being sent stright out of the arctic so bad news from an ice persepectivem but maybe good in terms of cooling the continents early... we shall see what happens

Yes its not great at present (understatement), vast swathes of the Arctic have been 12-15C above average and still are:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_07b.fnl.gif

850hPa temperatures look pretty high for the main basin, with most of the cold air concentrated over Northern Canada and Greenland. This is making the recovery in ice on the Siberian side painfully slow.

Fortunately it doesnt really have any bearing on what it'll be like up there come winter, 2006 at this point had much more colder air and we all know how mild that winter was:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/avn/Rhavn00220061009.png

[Mr Maunder]

There is little point in constantly beating ourselves up over the relatively slow growth in ice this autumn.

The key numbers are - what we started with (a higher number than 2007 or 2008) - and what we end up with (we will not find this out until next March!).

What happens at the beginning of October is interesting but, in my view, not really important as ice growth will, inevitably, get going shortly. The rate of growth in any year is largely dicatated the prevailing weather conditions and sea temperatures, which always makes any ongoing year to year comparison quite difficult.

Be patient.

MM