Accuweather 2009 Hurricane Forecast

[Cookie]

AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range and Hurricane Forecaster Joe laminate floori has released an early hurricane season forecast for 2009 that calls for fewer landfalls in the United States, as well as a lower overall number of named storms. However, storms may be more likely to form in the Atlantic Basin closer to the coast and the possibility of a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. cannot be ruled out.

"This year takes one major hurricane hitting a highly populated area to have devastating impact."

"Early indications show a reduction in the overall number of named storms and of major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin compared to last year, but the number of storms should still be near or a little above normal."

laminate floori points to several factors influencing the forecast, including:

1. The weak La Nina in the Pacific Ocean will dissipate. A reverse to a weak El Nino, which is associated with decreased hurricane activity in the Atlantic, is most likely in the middle to latter part of the hurricane season.

2. The expected orientation of high pressure in the eastern Atlantic will produce stronger easterly trade winds across northern Africa than last year. This will result in increased dust and dry air being pushed westward into the Atlantic where many tropical storms originate.

3. Cooler water temperatures in the deep tropical Atlantic, a typical breeding ground for hurricanes, which can reduce hurricane activity and intensity. This may create a season in which storms are reaching a greater intensity farther north and east than last year, leading to less impact in the Caribbean areas hit hard last year.

4. A continuing multi-decadal pattern of higher-than-average water temperatures in the Atlantic, raising the chance of major storms near the East Coast until about 2020.

Based on these and other considerations, laminate floori has made the following specific forecasts for overall numbers and types of storms during the 2009 season as seen on the image above.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-fe...3&year=2009

any thoughts?

[Iceberg]

More dry air, More Shear, Lower SST's does it get much worse.....

But then he says that it might be a little above normal...um....

"Early indications show a reduction in the overall number of named storms and of major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin compared to last year, but the number of storms should still be near or a little above normal."

[Cookie]

slightly confusing eh?

[Somerset Squall]

More dry air, More Shear, Lower SST's does it get much worse.....

But then he says that it might be a little above normal...um....

"Early indications show a reduction in the overall number of named storms and of major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin compared to last year, but the number of storms should still be near or a little above normal."

I was a little confused by this too. I think he's trying to cover all bases! Dry air, more shear and lower SST's would suggest a below average season surely? Interesting to note his call for more northeast forming storms, would be good for the Caribbean to get a break this year. It remains to be seen obviously whether this indeed happens or not though.

[Iceberg]

Forgot to say thanks for posting it up All forecasts make interesting reading.

[Cookie]

no bother, I agree.

[kold weather]

More shear would be because of the flip to El Nino but that doesn't mean shear will be rampant, jsut maybe a little above average...and that heavily depends on the idea of a El nino developing which I think won't really take hold until most of the best part of the season is gone anyway.

The cooler waters are quite clear to see at the moment so no reason to disagree with him there but in the end even if a lot of it is below average, most of the region will still be above 27-28C which is good enough for tropical development in the deep tropics.

More dry air would mean a below average Cape Verde season but often means the threat shifts north and west as later developing systems often don't pick up much latitude compared to fully developed tropical cyclones.

As for the East coast threat, seems pretty reasonable and when you look at the last 4 years you can actually see numerous close shaves, Alex in 04 came close to making landfall as a strong cat-2, Gaston was undergoing RI as it came inland, even so still was a cat-1. IF Ernesto hadn't spent 18hrs over Florida it could be argued it would have gone into the Carolinas as a cat-2/3. Just last year Hanna also spent lots of time close to disrupting land and if it had stalled 100 miles further north it could have been much stronger system. Given the last real big system to hit the east coast was probably Isabel, it does seem this area has been rather lucky at the gulfs expense.

My personal call for this season would be 12/6/3, I wouldn't be surprised if El Nino shuts down the season by late September/Early October but we shall see!

[Iceberg]

Talking about El Nino.

The latest forecasts from NASA are indicator a very rapid shift to a strong El Nino in the second half of the year.

This shift towards a strong El Nino has been gathering pace in the last few months, with the models in the last 2 weeks or so really wanting to take hold of it.