Are We In For A Hot Summer?

[stoke weather watch]

I am getting married at the end of Aug and going away just after that for a holiday and just been thinking what could our weather be like at that time of the year?

I have heard we could be in for a hot summer but how true is it?

[SP1986]

Almost impossible to specifically know but hints that warm summer might be coming are usually that spring is quite cool, that may bring on a pattern change int the summer months. But there no real way of knowing.

[South Wirral]

Almost impossible to specifically know but hints that warm summer might be coming are usually that spring is quite cool, that may bring on a pattern change int the summer months. But there no real way of knowing.

The answer I am sorry to say is that no one really knows what sort of summer we will get . Quite frankly I can look back over 50 years of my records and there is no set pattern except that poor summers seem to come in batches !The last two have been pretty miserable .

[Methuselah]

I would like to think that a hot summer is on the cards. But, alas, at this juncture, I have absolutely no way of telling...

[karyo]

I wouldn't mind some dry(ish) and warm(ish) weather to coincide with some weekends but i certainly don't want a hot summer.

Give me convective days anytime without the heat.

I hope you have dry weather for your wedding though stoke weather watch.

Karyo

[Solar Cycles]

Long hot summers are a thing of the past. Be prepared for some typical British summers as from now, with continuing low solar activity. It's time to put away the Barbecue, and keep those winter woolies close at hand!

Edited March 26, 2009 by Solar Cycles

[Bottesford]

If we can just get a decent warm & dry period for a few weeks I'll be happy. The great thing about July 2006 is you could rely on it being warm & mostly dry & sunny throughout - you could plan things and feel more confident in the weather playing ball. That hasn't happened since.

It'd be nice to get some reliable weather again - and maybe within the summer months instead of just in spring or autumn...

[A.J]

I really hope for a hot summer....Ahhh, endless hot sultry days with evening/night time storms....bliss.... :lol:

[Thundery wintry showers]

I would just like UK summers to be more like those on the continent... a bit warmer but not extortionately so, rather sunnier, and with most of the precipitation being convective rather than large-scale.

However I think this summer will probably be close to average for sunshine and rainfall (maybe slightly drier than average in the south), and slightly above in terms of temperature. Just a hunch.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Summer 2007 went some of the way towards Summer 1968 with lots of spectacular heavy thundery downpours. My kind of summer.

Like Karyo, I would want some warm hazy sunny days but mainly the sorts of set-ups whereby plenty of instability kicks off storms and exciting weather. Endless high pressure is sooo boring and heat is ok for a day or so if it is a means to an end in terms of triggering batches of supercells (don't ask for much!) but not day after day of it without a cloud in the sky. So warm sunshine with lovely brisk easterly breezes alternating with lots storm chase type days (but without having to do the chasing - they come to you lol!). Also nice refreshing cool summer northerlies are brilliant for showers and storms, so plenty of those too.

Thats all a personal ideal, but I am not optimistic of another 'good' summer in this respect. There is a higher chance it might be the high pressure variety IMO, but for big heat and non stop sunshine seekers the high could be in the wrong place. Might unfortunately be a frustrating westerly summer with little thunder and a boring azores high stuck to the south west, lots of cloud, best sun in eastern most parts but boring non descript stratus for many with drizzle and fog for northern and western coasts and hills at times. Temps slightly above average due to south westerly maritime dirge. Poor, in other words.

So perhaps the sort of summer that suits no popular tastes? Hopefully I will be wrong and it will be a thunder fest :lol:

[mushymanrob]

we havnt had a long hot summer for ages now...95? so you could say maybe one is due. (i dont count 03 as the heart of summer was largely overcast with milky skies, the best sunshine seemed to be in autumn! ... september)

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think in the south June-July 2006 would classify as a similar-length spell to that of 22 June-23 August 1995, though in the north June was unspectacular sunshine wise and July was a one-month wonder.

Temperature wise 2003 and 2006 were about as hot as 1995, but neither were as spectacular overall sunshine wise. If we use sunshine as the main measure, the summers of the 2000s have certainly lagged somewhat behind the 1990s, when those of 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1999 widely exceeded the average, while in the 2000s, only 2003, 2005 and 2006 managed it.

However, the 1990s were pretty exceptional. Again if we take sunshine hours, off the top of my head, I'd point to 1940, 1945, 1947, 1949, 1955, 1959, 1975, 1976, 1983, 1984 and 1989 as significantly exceeding the average in the preceding five decades- so not a lot then.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

What about 2006? Came back from Mexico (32oC) to Gatwick (~40oC).

That was a good summer

[kold weather]

we havnt had a long hot summer for ages now...95? so you could say maybe one is due. (i dont count 03 as the heart of summer was largely overcast with milky skies, the best sunshine seemed to be in autumn! ... september)

I think 2006 was really a long hot summer, I mean we had a very warm June, a record brekaing July that had several waves of 30C+ periods and was very sunny. There was a dip in Augut but even that wasn't poor, just not at the same standard and anyway September more then made up for it once again coming well above average.

[azores92]

What about 2006? Came back from Mexico (32oC) to Gatwick (~40oC).

That was a good summer

somehow dont believe it was 40 degrees in gatwick, as the record highest temperature was in kent at 38.5c.

[Summer of 95]

I think 2006 was really a long hot summer, I mean we had a very warm June, a record brekaing July that had several waves of 30C+ periods and was very sunny. There was a dip in Augut but even that wasn't poor, just not at the same standard and anyway September more then made up for it once again coming well above average.

Unfortunately no, in my opinion 2006 thanks to that August doesn't belong up there with 1995, 1976, 1959 (check out the records for that one- seems to have been sunny, warm and dry from May-mid October! Anyone remember it?), 1947, 1911. 1989 (August a bit changeable in the west) and 1983 (wet May-see below) I think are genuinely marginal/debateable members of this group.

August 2006 here was such a massive disappointment- cool, cloudy and at times damp with only the weekend 5-7th providing any semblance of summer weather. In many ways it was a slightly drier version of August 2008- days on end of overcast, frequent sub-20C maxima but like 2008 high minima put the CET near average. First August not to record 30C since 1993, one of the dullest on record (till 2008) in many parts. As you say September did make up for it in many ways, but if August and September had been reversed it would have been in the top class as there would have been prolonged heat/sunshine from early June-late Aug, without a prolonged break which to me defines the exceptional summers. Also don't forget the very wet May in 2006, which didn't happen in the other "exceptional"years either.

[mcweather]

Personally I don,t enjoy long hot summers because they nearly always end up turning humid and sticky which is my least enjoyable kind of weather.

Having said that the legendary summer of 1976 was great because the air was so dry. So even on the days when it was up around 90f it didn't feel horrible, recent hot summers have had a great deal of humid weather when even temperatures in the mid 70's f have felt grim compared to the dry heat of 1976.

Hope you get a great day for your wedding though Stoke.

[Rustynailer]

Personally I don,t enjoy long hot summers because they nearly always end up turning humid and sticky which is my least enjoyable kind of weather.

Having said that the legendary summer of 1976 was great because the air was so dry. So even on the days when it was up around 90f it didn't feel horrible, recent hot summers have had a great deal of humid weather when even temperatures in the mid 70's f have felt grim compared to the dry heat of 1976.

There is one or two things about humid that makes up for the unpleasantness, storms ( ) and great growing weather for the garden flowers and veg.

Another 2006 would be great, perhaps swap the comparatively poor-ish August for June

My feelings are that we will get a summer with storms and humidity, plenty of sun but not record breaking heat. The reason IMO is more volcanic dust and atmospheric pollution than of late combined with an almost nonexistent sunspot count.

Russ

Edited March 29, 2009 by Rustynailer

[londonsnow]

i'm hoping for a cool wet summer. if you've ever lived in london you'll know why. london is a nightmare in the heat. hot tubes, trains, buses etc having said that i just love warm summer days in the countryside or by the coast, and hopefully this year i will be able to enjoy such

[johnholmes]

Unfortunately no, in my opinion 2006 thanks to that August doesn't belong up there with 1995, 1976, 1959 (check out the records for that one- seems to have been sunny, warm and dry from May-mid October! Anyone remember it?), 1947, 1911. 1989 (August a bit changeable in the west) and 1983 (wet May-see below) I think are genuinely marginal/debateable members of this group.

August 2006 here was such a massive disappointment- cool, cloudy and at times damp with only the weekend 5-7th providing any semblance of summer weather. In many ways it was a slightly drier version of August 2008- days on end of overcast, frequent sub-20C maxima but like 2008 high minima put the CET near average. First August not to record 30C since 1993, one of the dullest on record (till 2008) in many parts. As you say September did make up for it in many ways, but if August and September had been reversed it would have been in the top class as there would have been prolonged heat/sunshine from early June-late Aug, without a prolonged break which to me defines the exceptional summers. Also don't forget the very wet May in 2006, which didn't happen in the other "exceptional"years either.

its interesting how our perception of what happened is not necessaritly born out by the actual figures.

These are CET data for the years shown, so your own area may be rather different but this does allow a reasonable comparison of some summers to be made.

In order of warmth throughout these are the years; using total cumulative values.

1976=53.31995=52.12006=51.71983=51.21947=51.11975=50.81959=49.81949=49.5

On this then 2006 was the 3rd warmest in about 70 years

as ever NW does not like Excel tables

so I'll print them

1976=53.3

1995=52.1

2006=51.7

1983=51.2

1947=51.1

1975=50.8

1959=49.8

1949=49.5

Edited March 29, 2009 by johnholmes

[Guest Daniel]

I am getting married at the end of Aug and going away just after that for a holiday and just been thinking what could our weather be like at that time of the year?

I have heard we could be in for a hot summer but how true is it?

It is very unlikerly that we get a hot summer. We are at present in a deep solar min and history clearly shows that really hot summers do not hapen in the U.K at the time of low sun spots. Of course they may well be some warm spells buit record breaking heat waves that we become used to are over. Further more to is most likerly any warm weather would occure in July rarther than August. in times of low sunspots August on average was a cooler summer month and most heat waves occure in June or July and they were quite rare. In the 17th century there were some hot summers before the major solar min took place but on average there were many more cooler summers. So this year this summer may well yet be just another average one or even a cool one.

[Optimus Prime]

The last year that I would class as a long hot summer was in 2003. For the south, after some light morning snowfall early on in April, the summer really got going from late April through until the frosts in September, but by day September 2003 was very warm, if cold by night. Also October 2003 started of very warm but got much cooler after the first week or so.

2006 was a very warm summer, period May-August was about the same as 2003 and 1995, but August 2006 alone was dissapointing. But the period May-October was the best summer spell, for warmth in history.

I suspect this summer will start the trend upwards again.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

There is one or two things about humid that makes up for the unpleasantness, storms ( ) and great growing weather for the garden flowers and veg.

Another 2006 would be great, perhaps swap the comparatively poor-ish August for June

My feelings are that we will get a summer with storms and humidity, plenty of sun but not record breaking heat. The reason IMO is more volcanic dust and atmospheric pollution than of late combined with an almost nonexistent sunspot count.

Russ

Agree that is something of a trade-off. The supercell of Jul 2007 was preceeded by incredible humidity. Also I like my gardening and have an allotment now as well - so good growing weather will be a help.

I hope you are right about a summer of storms

[Methuselah]

That's funny, the 2006 summer I recall was one of barbecues and sunburn.

[Kay]

Not sure what I want this summer really, but my husband has just applied for a job in Bahrain so I could be getting a hot one!!!!