Are We In For A Hot Summer?

[karyo]

It is very unlikerly that we get a hot summer. We are at present in a deep solar min and history clearly shows that really hot summers do not hapen in the U.K at the time of low sun spots. Of course they may well be some warm spells buit record breaking heat waves that we become used to are over. Further more to is most likerly any warm weather would occure in July rarther than August. in times of low sunspots August on average was a cooler summer month and most heat waves occure in June or July and they were quite rare. In the 17th century there were some hot summers before the major solar min took place but on average there were many more cooler summers. So this year this summer may well yet be just another average one or even a cool one.

That's nice to hear and it will be interesting to see whether it holds true in a few months time. For once, i hope Tamara is wrong... :lol:

Karyo

[Essan]

That's funny, the 2006 summer I recall was one of barbecues and sunburn.

The summer 2006 I recall was too hot to go out for barbecues and sunburn :lol:

I reckon we're in for another summer like last year: above average temps, below average sunshine, above average rainfall. Probably still with a few places exceeding 30c on the odd occasion.

Hopefully not too humid either. Humidity might mean thunderstorms for some but round here it means no thunderstorms. As does all other possible permutations of weather! So I'd rather have nice cool, fresh weather (allowing one to go outside during the daytime) and no thunderstorms than 'orrible 'ot sticky weather, be stuck indoors all day, and still no thunderstorms, thank you!

[Bottesford]

No problems for me with high humidity especially since I'm stuck indoors all day anyway at work. I want the evenings to be warm enough for sitting outside without any extra layers. For that you need high humidity as high temps rarely stick around in this country after nightfall. Perhaps my opinion would be different if I had all day to go outside but as it stands that can only happen two days per week so gimme high temps for those lovely warm evenings.

Cool/fresh/low humidity is great if you can get out in the day - nice warm sunshine and fresh air but useless after about 7pm as it gets too cold to sit out in. Well not without layers on and that defeats the point of it!

[Harry]

2006 for me was perhaps the most summery summer I can remember - my first year at work, in London of all places, saw are BITTERLY cold March/April. May iirc was one of sunshine and showers. In to June/July, the sun really came out, and I remember a 3 week spell where daily max ranged from a low of 28C, to a high of 36C, majority of the days iirc between 31C and 34C. It was hot and humid.

As londonsnow correctly pointed out, hot summers in London, particularly for workers can be unbearable - with tube temperatures ranging easily between 40 and 50C, overground trains immensely uncomfortable along with buses. The plus side though of working and living around London, is a relatively higher frequency and severity of UK thunderstorms!!

Lets just hope 2009 is like 2006, with more thunderstorms!! :lol:

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

That's nice to hear and it will be interesting to see whether it holds true in a few months time. For once, i hope Tamara is wrong...

Karyo

Oh don't get me wrong :lol: I don't want heat and humidity for days at a time. Pleasantly warm weather in the summer is nice, but I like relatively cool conditions as the overall pattern. The means to an end I refer to is just getting the ingredients together for the storms to happen

Those polar airstreams in summer can give amazing thundery downpours too

[Alex95]

I think we're in for an average summer. A couple of short heatwaves are likely, along with quite a bit of unsettled weather. Maybe a bit like 2005, only with shorter sunny spells and rain in between.

[MP-R]

2005 again would be lovely! A cool then warm June with some great thunderstorms towards the end, a mostly dry and warm sunny July, a changeable but warm, sometimes hot August then a stormy start to September before the foggy days and golden afternoons scenario starts up.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think perceptions of how good or bad a hot summer is depends partly on location.

In Leeds I thought 2006 was a fantastic summer- 1-12 June with its warm sunshine followed by big thunderstorms on the 12th, and although the rest of the month was fairly average, the July that followed was phenomenal- it was like the sort of summer month I'd expect to see in central Europe! August was often cloudy and wet but it had some good storms.

For Tyne & Wear June was less good (just slightly above average sunshine), July was every bit as phenomenal (mean maxima of 23-25C, some 4-5C above average, and 270+ hours of sunshine) but then August was very cloudy, so I reckon I'd have seen it as a "one-month wonder" summer up there.

But if I'd been living in central London I'd probably have found Julys 1994 and 1995 too hot, let alone the record-breaking one in 2006.

For UK summer weather I'd recommend the Norwich area. It gets similar sunshine hours to London, slightly more thunderstorms, and doesn't suffer from the intense inner-city heat to anywhere near the same extent as London.

[Enreco]

Not sure what I want this summer really, but my husband has just applied for a job in Bahrain so I could be getting a hot one!!!!

Kay

Hope you enjoy it in Bahrain if your husband gets the job the best of luck to him.Give me the cool British summers

E.C

[dogs32]

According to the Long Range Forecast NO...

But Im taking this very lightly as this is far in the future

Would be nice to have a decent summer for a change....I reckon myself we have had 3 bad summers so far in a row

Edited March 30, 2009 by dogs32

[Devon-Nelly]

I'm thinking/hoping we're in for a good summer this year, possibly if we are lucky another very warm one. Last summer was awful the hottest day of the year was in May, when temps hovered around the 25c mark, never reached it afterwards.

Personaly i think 2003 was the best summer i've experianced, and was part of a long hot summer which started in March and finished in October, it wasn't record breakingly hot all in one month but more spread out.

Some of the monthly highs we had that year were, 19c March, 25c April, 24c May, 25c June, 30c July, 33c August, 26c September, 21c October.

For temperatures to reach more than 25c here is really quite rare and in 2003, we equalled if not surpassed it in 5 months that year.

2006 was a good summer though none the less, alot more thundery which is the type of weather like, and would very much like a repeat. But apart from a hot July it was cooler than 2003 in these parts.

Would love to have a summer month surpass the 20c CET mark, wouldn't that be fun :lol: :lol: .

[Bottesford]

Agree with all of that Devon-Nelly - glad I'm not the only one after a long, hot one!

I wonder how long it'll be before a CET greater than 20c is reached? I don't think we're quite there yet but it can't be that far off (assuming warming continues)

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I would take an average summer, never mind a hot one having experienced two god awful summers. It would be great to get lovely hot days that seem to do on and one like during 2003. We have lived here for 4 years and have not sat out in the garden during the evening during the summer. April and May seen to be the best few months based on the last few years, we even had the paddling pool out last May, only for it to be put away for the rest of the summer. I really hope this year is different. Put it this week we will all know in 5 months time.

[cheeky_monkey]

maybe summer 2006 was the swansong of the run of warm summers seen through from 1989 onwards..bit like 1987 was for winters in the period of the 70s & 80s and the tide has turned.

we had two poor summers 2007 & 2008 much like the poor winters of 88-89 & 89-90..maybe it hearlds the flip back the opposite way and in ten years time every one will be asking when we will get summers like the 1990s & 00s again....having said that i expect a better summer this year fairly dryish pretty average temps wise something akin to 1987 for those who remember that summer.

Edited March 31, 2009 by cheeky_monkey

[Weather-history]

I wouldn't mind another summer 1995. Now that was magnificent especially that August!

Infact 1995 was a great year all round!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I wouldn't mind another summer 1995. Now that was magnificent especially that August!

Infact 1995 was a great year all round!

I remember that one quite well and was living in Wakefield then. Most of Yorshire's water reserves were very low and water was sent down from cumbria in large water carrying lorries. The resevoirs on the penines were nearly empty!! Hosepipes were banned from June until September I think!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

The summer also wasn't without its non-heat/drought/sunshine points of interest either. Late June 1995 had a couple of large temperature contrasts, while I remember July 1995 being in a similar vein to July 1994 with some hot thundery outbreaks- 11th-15th, and 26th/27th spring to mind. In Tyneside, 27th August 1995 was a very dramatic day with heavy showers, thunder and large hail. I certainly agree with Mr Data that 1995 was a great year all round for weather- in Tyneside there was even a white Christmas, while I've expressed elsewhere how much I enjoyed the variable spring that preceded that remarkable summer.

Yorkshire's water shortages, from what I read from Philip Eden, were as much down to water mis-management as drought. Although the summer was very dry, and the preceding spring had been quite dry, the wet winter of 1994/95 should have prevented such a thing from happening on such a large scale.

Indeed I think, certainly in Tyneside, those of us into snowy winters, warm sunny summers and convection were spoilt in the mid 1990s generally. The summers of 1994, 1996 and 1997 all had their moments.

[sundog]

I reckon a reasonable Summer is on the cards,nothing spectacular but not half bad either,certainly better then the last two. I dont like long hot Summers but last Summer even i found it depressing.

[damianslaw]

Not expecting any record breaking heatwaves as we saw in Aug 2003 or July 2006, nor expecting the washouts that were summers 2007 and 2008, will be happy if we see a summer akin to 2005 which was generally a warm dry and sunny summer all round without ever being too extreme..however, have to say though I'm expecting a rather 'average' summer with unsettled periods at times, thats as far as I am going at this early stage.

Favourite summer in my lifetime so far has to go to 1995.. wonderful memories..

[Derp Patrol]

I don't think I can remember a time when we didn't hit 30C down here in London in a Summer. Of course the summers here can be very different compared to up north where average max are about 20-21C compared to 23C here. I hope that we get an extended Summer that lasts from May to September. I personally don't mind the humid weather, but it does get very uncomfortable down here trying to sleep with temps of over 20C during the night.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Summers 1993 and 2007 widely failed to reach 30C even in southern England. In Cleadon, Tyne & Wear, the entire year 2007 failed to reach 24C- somewhat ironic considering that July 2006's mean maximum had been 23C!

[reef]

Summers 1993 and 2007 widely failed to reach 30C even in southern England. In Cleadon, Tyne & Wear, the entire year 2007 failed to reach 24C- somewhat ironic considering that July 2006's mean maximum had been 23C!

It was the same here too. Summer 2007 reached just 24.1C, yet the average maxima in July 2006 was 25.5C!

Ive absolutely no idea what this summer will be like. You just have to have a look at the differences between Springs 2007 and 2008 to come to the conclusion that synoptics and weather experienced in March, April and May generally have little bearing on what happens in summer.

My 'hunch' and thats really all it is, would be close to or slightly above average. One more interesting theory Ive heard recently is that the poor summers in western Europe are somehow related to the ice levels to our North falling off a cliff in the past 2 years. Theres probably nothing in it, but a combination of another poor summer and close to record low ice levels would certainly raise a few eyebrows.

[Derp Patrol]

I can't imagine a year without it even hitting 24C! eugh!!

[Summer of 95]

Another 1995 would be a treat, but even an average summer like 2005 or 1996 would seem good after the last two years! Even summers I thought at the time were poor like 1998, 2000 and 2002 were a lot better than 2007 or 2008 which were in another league entirely for their combination of frequent rain and lack of sustained warm, sunny periods.

I've often thought about a catalogue of UK summers since 1900, similar to the Bonacina snowfall catalogue: with the ratings being "Very Good", "Good", "Average", "Poor" and "Very Poor". Based not only on temperature but also sunshine, rainfall and the frequency and length of hot/dry/sunny spells. Looking at the data available, there are 5 that can definitely be called "Very Good" over the vast majority of the UK: 1911, 1947, 1959, 1976 and 1995. 1903, 1912, 1954, 1985 and 2007 are Very Poor without doubt. 1989, 1983 and a couple in the early 30s are borderline Good/Very Good, and 2008, 1986, 1987 borderline Poor/Very Poor.

Edited April 3, 2009 by Summer of 95

[Thundery wintry showers]

The most effective way of determining that would probably be to use a summer index and categorise scores into those categories. One common one for central southern England is the Davis index but I've always felt that the Manchester index by Kevin/Mr Data offers a representation that is more consistent with general perceptions of "good" and "bad".

According to the Excel formula which I used to calculate Cleadon's equivalent of the Manchester index, Summer index = 10 X (Mean Max Temp of Summer + [(sunshine total/67) - (rain days/ ])

For the record, since 1993, 1998 (175) came out with the lowest figure, while 1995 (264) had the highest value but with 2006 (261) close behind. It was surprising initially that 2007 and 2008 came out with higher index scores (194 and 190 respectively) than 1998, but neither of those summers had consistently low maxima to the same extent as 1998, and both had one reasonably sunny month (August 2007, June 2008). Note that to get these figures I had to estimate sunshine totals based on the Met Office maps and nearby sites, but they should be close to the mark.