Are We In For A Hot Summer?

[MR EXTREMES]

not uncommon to have hot weather in summer.

but id be very carefull as seen with the model outputs for sometime things can change and suprise and catch even the met office out.

and did so last spring started lovely ended up with a pretty soggy summer.

im sorry i do not agree with the met office summer outlook why well i dunno!,

because im not as experienced as most but i go with gut feeling and trends and over the past few years its been pretty poor and feel this will continue.

and i strongly feel met o will stay bias towards the warming trends and then the media follow suit like the express today.

this goes on far to much and therefor the truth can be clouded with the trend always towards hot and dry.

one thing i do notice is met o shorter term forecast chop and change far to much,

and maybe this summer might turn out warm and dry but i dont think it will be as hyped up as they predict its silly to predict temps for 3 or 4 months ahead.

but if it happens i take it on the chin like a man but the alantic has not been all that active for sometime and has to come back to life sooner or later couple that with the jetstream antics then im on the fence. :unsure: or perhapes slightly leaning torwards unsettled.

well i hope a hot summer dont ruin the chances of a colder winter.

Edited May 1, 2009 by badboy657

[Snowyowl9]

"Oak before Ash" this year (the opposite from last year and the year before) so a dry summer. It's been an extraordinary dry spring too, only a day's rain for the last 3 weeks.

Oak is indeed early this year,ash are nowhere to be seen yet,and last years hot may helped to bring the ash very much earlier to normal,thats when it caught the other trees up as they were late due to a colder March/April.

This may will be cooler as it`s an atlantic west flow,much much different to to last may when it was a total easterly month.

I thought last year was indeed slightly above average?

It certainly was well above as far as rainfall was concerned,wettest since 1992 in the west,but slightly average/below ave temps.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Last summer did have slightly above average temperature, because of the warm nights. August's average minimum was 1 to 2C above average almost everywhere, while the average maximum was mostly 0 to 1C below.

[summer blizzard]

Last summer was below average temperature wise , June and July were below with August bang on average, however it was well above average in rainfall.

[GRHinPorts]

The link reef quoted is actually for 2007 and not 2008.

Not that it makes a lot of difference because both summers people would consider poor...but June in 2007 was in fact 1 degree above average. July/August both a degree below average.

[reef]

The link reef quoted is actually for 2007 and not 2008.

Not that it makes a lot of difference because both summers people would consider poor...but June in 2007 was in fact 1 degree above average. July/August both a degree below average.

A bit of slip there

But as you say the same still applies.

[JacobWilliams]

The Netweather forecast is now predicting an above-average June, after previously forecasting it to be cool and wet. Didn't something similar happen with both March and April? There seem to have been alot of months forecasted to be below average which actualy turned out below-average.

[William of Walworth]

Current charts as being discussed in the Model Output Discussion thread, make it very hard at the moment to predict whether or not we'll get a summery warm up even as soon as mid/late May, as far as I can tell ....

As usual I enter summer with fingers nervously crossed and trying to hold rampant pessimism at bay. Updates to this thread from more knowledgeable Netweather folk welcomed ...

[Phil UK]

So Id take any forecast for another warm one with a lorry-load of salt.

Well, if you lived in Birmingham in June 2005, you could take that comment literally. I kid you not.

Here's the link. You couldn't make it up!

Phil.

[Eugene]

Another boring summer ahead me thinks, slightly above average and wetter than average with a real lack of sunshine in August, roll on autumn

I find summer a horrible season with a lack of PM air as the 546 dam line retreats way to our north after mid/late June just muggy overcast TM airmasses take over the mid atlantic, spring, winter and autumn are much more interesting seasons with a variation of airmasses, June is the best summer month as proved by last June due to some nice clear PM air where it feels warm in the sun but with very pleasant dew points especially at night.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Another boring summer ahead me thinks, slightly above average and wetter than average with a real lack of sunshine in August, roll on autumn

I find summer a horrible season with a lack of PM air as the 546 dam line retreats way to our north after mid/late June just muggy overcast TM airmasses take over the mid atlantic, spring, winter and autumn are much more interesting seasons with a variation of airmasses, June is the best summer month as proved by last June due to some nice clear PM air where it feels warm in the sun but with very pleasant dew points especially at night.

Summer polar airmasses are often very good for convection too. With upper cold pools and very strong sunshine setting off some torrential thundery downpours!

[Bottesford]

Another boring summer ahead me thinks, slightly above average and wetter than average with a real lack of sunshine in August, roll on autumn

I find summer a horrible season with a lack of PM air as the 546 dam line retreats way to our north after mid/late June just muggy overcast TM airmasses take over the mid atlantic, spring, winter and autumn are much more interesting seasons with a variation of airmasses, June is the best summer month as proved by last June due to some nice clear PM air where it feels warm in the sun but with very pleasant dew points especially at night.

Agree about TM airmasses when they don't bring sunshine but nothing beats that sweet smell on a very warm & humid night when even after midnight you can sit outside in a t-shirt - bliss!

You probably only get maybe a week or two at best all year of those conditions so I definitely relish those brief days...

PM air is great for daytimes but no good after 5 or 6 at night as temperature just drops like a stone.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think the problem with PM air in July and August is that in "high summer" the Atlantic tends to be stronger and so spells with a slowly filling Atlantic low nearby and sunny mornings followed by showery afternoons are less common- Atlantic systems often come in, cutting off the showery regime and leaving the weather cool and cloudy.

Indeed many of the UK's so-called "sunshine and showers" spells from westerly and north-westerly winds in July and August would be better described as cool and cloudy with the odd bit of sun and the odd bit of rain- and we get just the odd day that kicks off some real convection. July 1998 was a pretty good example of this- it seemed like it was forecast to be "sunshine and showers" all month, yet only a handful of days produced much in the way of excitement, and indeed much of eastern England statistically ended up dry and cloudy.

I can certainly remember Julys and Augusts in the UK which had some good convective spells but broadly speaking these tended not to be strongly Atlantic-influenced and instead had floppy lows and a lot of blocking to the east leading to frequent southerly winds.

[damianslaw]

Sorry to sound pessimistic, but can't see this summer rivalling the relatively dry and very benign conditions we experienced between mid february and late April - Spring is always more likely to be settled than summer I have to say, yes much colder and duller but very difficult to get long protracted dry spells during summer as can be delivered in Spring. It will always be dry weather I crave during the summer, rain is the biggest enemy in the summer, cloudy average weather being much better and far far more useful than warm humid wet weather.

Hope we are not going to see a repeat of the southerly tracking jet again...

[GRHinPorts]

The 2 year period Nov 2004-Nov 2006 saw a run of months that were predominantly drier than average. By spring of 2006 there was a significant drought affecting water supplies in the south.

This was then followed by a 2 year period up to November last year in which there were more months that were predominantly wetter than average. With the floods of Summer 2007 a notable highlight.

As most months since then have been drier than average I just wonder now whether we are now in a drier phase. I certainly don't feel that just because this Spring has been very dry that its necessitates the Summer will be a wash out. In fact I could be more persuaded that sometime through 2010 we will be threatened with hosepipe bans.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Sorry to sound pessimistic, but can't see this summer rivalling the relatively dry and very benign conditions we experienced between mid february and late April - Spring is always more likely to be settled than summer I have to say, yes much colder and duller but very difficult to get long protracted dry spells during summer as can be delivered in Spring. It will always be dry weather I crave during the summer, rain is the biggest enemy in the summer, cloudy average weather being much better and far far more useful than warm humid wet weather.

Each to their own- but I don't personally follow that philosophy, recalling the dry spell at the end of August 2008, and the dry spell of 1-10 June 2007 in Cleadon (rain on only 1 day, sun on only 2 days, mean max 15.5!) It's also worth noting that in Cumbria I'm pretty sure cloudy average weather has an above average tendency to be wet.

As for spring and summer precipitation, I don't think there's much of a relationship. 1995 had a moderately dry spring over much of England, Wales and SE Scotland, and this was followed by a very dry summer. Spring 2003 for many was drier, and was also followed by a fairly dry summer.

[Snowyowl9]

Last June was in total contrast to the year before way dryer with cold nights and sunny days but there was 1 thundery shower,there was 1 day with gales/severe gusting to 61mph.

As June 2007 was more humid with lows excessive rain and thunderstorms,and 1 day with severe N-ly gales never seen on that scale before in summer in 1 month.

[William of Walworth]

I certainly don't feel that just because this Spring has been very dry that its necessitates the Summer will be a wash out. In fact I could be more persuaded that sometime through 2010 we will be threatened with hosepipe bans.

As for spring and summer precipitation, I don't think there's much of a relationship. 1995 had a moderately dry spring over much of England, Wales and SE Scotland, and this was followed by a very dry summer. Spring 2003 for many was drier, and was also followed by a fairly dry summer.

Thanks for those posts folks. Somewhat reassuring in these nervous times .....

[Thundery wintry showers]

A point that might come as a surprise to many.

Which city, of the following, has the lowest mean summer rainfall and the lowest mean number of summer raindays?

London, Munich, Berlin, Paris, Oslo, Warsaw, Amsterdam, Brussels.

The answer: London. (The wettest out of the above, incidentally, is Munich).

In addition much of central-southern and south-western France has more summer rain than London, though the number of raindays is generally similar or slightly lower.

You can actually read either way into that: either rainfall isn't the be-all and end-all, or London has a particularly good summer climate relative to much of the rest of NW Europe. Of course London is particularly dry, but most of central and eastern England is, in truth, drier than most of the near-Continent, especially in terms of raw monthly rainfall.

[Stargazer]

Indeed - I guess it's the relatively cloudy climate of London that gives the impression that it's wet in summer. The two aren't directly related, of course, but somehow I think there is a tendency for our memories to associate dull uneventful weather with rain.

In general the statistics for eastern England (and Scotland, for that matter) indicate a cloudy and rather dry climate - implying many cloudy uneventful days - and in my experience that's what we tend to get.

It's also possible that other European cities get more of their summer rain from relatively short, heavy cloudbursts, so it doesn't actually rain for as long as it does in London.

Edited May 8, 2009 by Stargazer

[GRHinPorts]

Indeed - I guess it's the relatively cloudy climate of London that gives the impression that it's wet in summer. The two aren't directly related, of course, but somehow I think there is a tendency for our memories to associate dull uneventful weather with rain.

In general the statistics for eastern England (and Scotland, for that matter) indicate a rather dry and very cloudy climate - implying many cloudy uneventful days - and in my experience that's what we tend to get.

That would be my impression of summer down here on the central south coast too. Although I'm often aware that there are plenty of days where there will be some glimpses of sunshine here in Portsmouth but as soon as you go so much as 1-2 miles inland you are back under the grey muck.

[Stargazer]

Interesting observation, GRH - I myself lived for many years in Southampton (do I hear boo hiss?!) but my impression was that there was noticeably 'more weather' there than here in Reading - sunshine, rain and wind - and I think the stats bear this out. After moving 50 miles inland in 2002 my impression has been of more quiet, dull, dry days here in Reading and less rainfall, particularly in winter. I was also expecting it to feel colder in Reading, but perhaps the lower wind speeds inland moderated this.

Edited May 8, 2009 by Stargazer

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's also possible that other European cities get more of their summer rain from relatively short, heavy cloudbursts, so it doesn't actually rain for as long as it does in London.

Yeah, that's pretty much what I was getting at! There's a popular perception in the UK that the most important aspect of a good summer is lack of rainfall, but in practice most of us notice the rain a lot more when it's cool, cloudy and windy than when it's warm, sunny and calm but with occasional cloudbursts producing large amounts in the rain gauges. Certainly my experiences of holidays in the near Continent have suggested that they see more of the latter.

You're probably right to suggest that the proportion of the time on which it rains may well be significantly lower in many of those European cities than in London even though the mean monthly rainfall is higher.

It's probably a similar story when comparing Reading and Southampton- certainly the latter location comes out with significantly higher sunshine totals as well as higher rainfall.

Edited May 8, 2009 by Thundery wintry showers

[GRHinPorts]

Interesting observation, GRH - I myself lived for many years in Southampton (do I hear boo hiss?!) but my impression was that there was noticeably 'more weather' there than here in Reading - sunshine, rain and wind - and I think the stats bear this out. After moving 50 miles inland in 2002 my impression has been of more quiet, dull, dry days here in Reading and less rainfall, particularly in winter. I was also expecting it to feel colder in Reading, but perhaps the lower wind speeds inland moderated this.

No boo hiss (I have only been here 12 years - not long enough to become that parochial) but I would hazard a guess that the point you raise is ever so slightly emphasised in comparing Southampton with Portsmouth (i.e the latter having more sunshine, rain and wind and definitely warmer in winter (not summer) with even less likelihood of snow in the latter)...perhaps this is the effect of being at the bottom end of the Solent rather than tucked in somewhat at the top.

[damianslaw]

Each to their own- but I don't personally follow that philosophy, recalling the dry spell at the end of August 2008, and the dry spell of 1-10 June 2007 in Cleadon (rain on only 1 day, sun on only 2 days, mean max 15.5!) It's also worth noting that in Cumbria I'm pretty sure cloudy average weather has an above average tendency to be wet.

As for spring and summer precipitation, I don't think there's much of a relationship. 1995 had a moderately dry spring over much of England, Wales and SE Scotland, and this was followed by a very dry summer. Spring 2003 for many was drier, and was also followed by a fairly dry summer.

Granted, average cloudy weather in Cumbria is quite hard to come by, usually average temps in summer = a westerly airstream which is notoriously wet indeed here.

However, what I meant to say is that I would much rather take a dry cloudy average temperature sort of day above a wet one regardless of whether it is accompanied with cold or warm/hot weather. In this respect I loathe the atlantic in the summer, south westerlies bringing wet and humid weather yuk yuk yuk, westerlies are not much better, in this part of the country though a cloudy easterly or south easterly or north easterly is very welcome, likewise a high situated just to the NW of the country pulling in cloudy conditions around the top so to speak isn't too bad. Of course sunshine is what I really prefer and pleasant warm weather. In the Lake District a cloudy dry day is known as a good day indeed whatever the time of year! A sunny day is a real bonus!