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Virtual Chase Slight Risk Louisiana/ Mississippi Weds 25th March 09


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Posted
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.

    An interesting set up today across Louisiana/ Mississippi as the cold front becomes stationary creating a west to east surface boundary to the south of the main area of precip outflow. Storms are possible where convergence is strongest and can overcome capping. In addition to this we do have a slight risk of convergence type tornadoes within a vorticity rich environment. Though the main set back from a chasers point of view is that most of this activity is likely to occur overnight and probably will not be seen to be reported. If you can manage to stay up late enough should look good on radar maybe!

    All in all a rather low risk outlook ATM

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    looks interesting anyway despite it looking later in the day.

    day1otlk_1200.gif

    AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    1226 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

    VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS

    VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

    A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND

    DEVELOP SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...WHILE A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM

    SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN

    PLAINS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH

    NOW OVER UT/AZ WILL PHASE WITH A FAST-MOVING IMPULSE APPROACHING

    BAJA AND RESULT IN STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS

    TX/LA/MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE

    FOR AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OVER THE REGION.

    ...CENTRAL TX WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...

    A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE MIDDLE TX GULF

    COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE

    BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER

    60S. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AS EARLY AS MID MORNING

    MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TOP OF THE STABLE AIR

    OVER CENTRAL TX...WITH A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.

    ...EAST TX INTO LA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...

    OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL/EAST TX

    DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND LOW

    LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ENHANCED. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST

    SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP A RELATIVELY

    STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT

    IN A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. LOW LEVEL

    VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG ALONG THE RETREATING

    WARM FRONT...AND WILL POSE A RISK OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS

    WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THESE STORMS

    MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR MCS AFTER DARK WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF

    DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

    ...LA/MS/AL WED EVENING/NIGHT...

    MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL

    JET AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE OVER EASTERN LA AND MS

    AFTER DARK. SIMILAR TO FARTHER WEST...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW

    FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR

    THAT AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG

    THE BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE

    NAM/NAMKF/GFS AND NMM4 MODELS ALL INDICATE A RISK OF STRONG

    TORNADOES IF DISCRETE STRUCTURES CAN BE MAINTAINED. THIS AREA MAY

    REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER UPDATES AS CONFIDENCE

    IN PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INCREASES. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT

    STORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A

    CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

    ..HART/GARNER.. 03/25/2009

    day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    In terms of actual events I suspect things will be rather similar to what they were on Monday though hopefully the cells can hang onto thier discrete nature a little longer this time round which will help the risk of tornadoes I suspect. I reckon sometime in the early eveing things will start to mess out a little and become more linear in nature, though as I said I think this will be a little slower to happen and therefore we could well see a moderate risk out of it in the end.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    http://204.2.104.196/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_...M-SNOW_99HR.gif

    Anyone fancy a Skiing Trip to Amarillo :):) Up to 20" Of Snow expected across the Texas, Oklahoma Panhandles and Western Kansas and Colorado over the next few days!! This is very good news as they have had an amazing Drought since the End of November, and the latest Tornado Set Ups were much further East due to the Dryline being placed further East! When the Snow Melts it should help the area start to go "Green" Again!

    Early Spring in Tornado Alley is a Harsh place, on one day Winter Snow Advisories and the Next a Moderate Risk of Tornadoes, No half measures here!

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Yep - And Here is that Warning!

    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

    TORNADO WARNING

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

    1028 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...

    SOUTHEASTERN CALLAHAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

    NORTHERN COLEMAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

    NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

    * UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

    * AT 1027 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES EAST OF

    SILVER VALLEY...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLEMAN...MOVING EAST AT

    30 MPH.

    * THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...

    BURKETT BY 1055 AM CDT...

    CROSS CUT AND CROSS PLAINS BY 1100 AM CDT...

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

    WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

    AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

    INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

    COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

    IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

    SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

    NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
    Wow is storm activity usually that early out there?

    God I move away from the computer for half an hour and the warning come out :doh:

    The usual 'textbook' time for storms in the US is at and just after peak heating so late aftenoon, same as the UK. But it's not uncommon to have them at any time, again like here. The timing really depends on the kind of setup you have though. Certain types of storm like the MCC can be more common at night. Hope that helps. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    That storm is quite a distance north of the good moisture (well north of the 48 dewpoint line on SPC Meso analysis and probably in the 30's), so I'd be surprised to see anything come of it. The front is pretty much hovering over the coast east of Houston, and needs to budge north by a 100 miles or so to really bump up the risk. Any storms forming north of the front will struggle to be rooted at the surface and should have a limited tornado potential. If the Front moves inland enough, storms forming on the front itself should be in a perfect spot for tornadoes however.

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
    The usual 'textbook' time for storms in the US is at and just after peak heating so late aftenoon, same as the UK. But it's not uncommon to have them at any time, again like here. The timing really depends on the kind of setup you have though. Certain types of storm like the MCC can be more common at night. Hope that helps. :)

    Thanks, this threads becomming a massive learning curve for me :doh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Yeah as mentioned this storm probably isn't rooted to the boundary level given how low dew points are, therefore tornadoes probably aren't all that likely from it, though wouldn't be surprising to see a funnel cloud or two with it. The key to watch over the next 2-3hrs is the progress of the watrm front, simply put the further north it can get the more area that will get into the higher storm threat in the higher dew point zone. IF it can get north enough then we will see a upgrade to mod, if not then they will hold off and keep the slight instead.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Looks like a Squall Line setting up from DFW Down to San Angelo, which is nice for an area starved of rain, I for 1 hope to see a few more of these over the next few weeks, 2007 was wonderful out there as Nathan says, an array of colours from the Wildflowers, Contrast this with 2005 when I went and everything looked like it had been killed off by a Bomb, dusty brown landscapes and no colour anywhere.

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    MD regardig possible tornado watch put up for Texas. The front continues to slowly progress north, and further tor watches are likely in LA and MS later this evening. Also, I've just looked at Friday's charts and I don't know if it's just me, but that has High Risk written all over in historically, the worst place for it if those models play out... excellent shear, 3000+ Cape, Li's at -9, Dews in the warm sector into the 70s, it just screams copious discrete warm sector activity to me. Things can change and the models ain't set in stone but still, I might have to start a separate thread for that one in a while...

    mcd0259.gif

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0259

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    1251 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

    AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY REGION EWD INTO

    SOUTHEAST TX

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

    VALID 251751Z - 251945Z

    SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE

    EDWARDS PLATEAU/MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION EWD INTO SERN TX

    THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

    THE SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED -- OR EVEN BEGUN A SLOW

    RETREAT -- ACROSS S TX PER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...WITH DEWPOINTS

    GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID

    70S INVOF THE FRONT. A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING

    INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES...AND A SECOND/SUBTLE

    SUBTROPICAL FEATURE NOW NEARING THE BIG BEND APPEARS TO BE PHASING

    WITH THE MORE NRN FEATURE. IN RESPONSE...A SLOW INCREASE IN

    LOW-LEVEL SLYS -- AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION/ASCENT -- WILL

    CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX.

    VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EROSION IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS

    OVER S TX AND INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH

    A SLOW NWD-SHIFT IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED

    DESTABILIZATION -- EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE

    MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FROM

    THE DRT TO SJT REGION -- WHERE CU FIELD IS INCREASING JUST AHEAD OF

    THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

    WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...A CONTINUED

    INCREASE IN THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELD WILL BE

    INCREASINGLY-SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. WHILE MUCH OF THE

    STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE

    BOUNDARY...AND WHILE FORECAST ENELY STORM MOTION SHOULD CARRY ANY

    STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE FRONT/ATOP THE

    SHALLOW COOL SURFACE AIRMASS...WARMING/MOISTENING WITH TIME N OF THE

    FRONT SUGGESTS THAT SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST N OF THE

    FRONT DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY-ELEVATED NATURE OF ANY STORMS RESIDING

    JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY.

    ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT

    WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO INVOF THIS BOUNDARY TO WARRANT TORNADO

    WATCH ISSUANCE.

    ..GOSS.. 03/25/2009

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 29680164 30260157 30600029 30779869 30779746 31549525

    30629460 29529447 28769825 28690004 29680164

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    Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl

    I'm loving this new technology... :doh: Although i dont have time to follow the exact details i am sitting doing my uni coursework with live streaming chases on my second monitor :)

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Tornado watch #63 has just been issued

    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

    TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 63

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    205 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

    TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS

    EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL

    900 PM CDT.

    TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

    GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

    AREAS.

    THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE

    MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF DEL RIO

    TEXAS TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE TEXAS. FOR A

    COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

    UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

    REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

    TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

    DISCUSSION...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP

    ALONG THE NW EDGE OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN DRT AND SJT.

    THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE

    AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS EWD FROM THE BIG

    BEND...AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NWD ACROSS S CENTRAL

    AND SE TX. MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOA 1500 J/KG/ AND

    EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS

    CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LEVEL

    FLOW/SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS

    CENTRAL/SE TX IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...THUS

    SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Tornado watch now extended.

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0263

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0357 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

    AREAS AFFECTED...THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY INTO SERN TX

    CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63...

    VALID 252057Z - 252230Z

    THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 63 CONTINUES.

    SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW.

    SURFACE FRONT HAS BEGUN RETREATING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX...WHILE A

    DRYLINE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/MIDDLE

    RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A FEW STORMS ARE ONGOING INVOF THE

    DRYLINE...WITH THE STRONGEST CELL OVER ERN MASON COUNTY ATTM. THIS

    STORM HAS INTENSIFIED RECENTLY...WITH A STRONG MESOCYCLONE NOW

    INDICATED. ALONG WITH AN IMMEDIATE SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT WITH THIS

    STORM...THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ENEWD AS THE FRONT

    CONTINUES RETREATING AHEAD OF ADVANCING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

    ISOLATED STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON

    THE MEXICO SIDE OF THE RIVER...JUST S OF THE SWRN CORNER OF THE

    WATCH. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT COULD REQUIRE LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0063.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.

    Yes, since the earlier model output there has been some good increased scope for storm activity across Texas during the afternoon. This needs to be monitored. Though for me the prime risk for tornadoes specifically, will probably occur much later after dark along a line from the far east TX and through into the southern sector of Louisiana. This is the period where a very strong surface boundary should develop.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    The storm that is/was intensifying is currently dropping 3 and a 1/4 inch hail with tops reaching over 40k ft, one to watch as this could become tornadic soon.

    Tornado warning now issued associated with this cell.

    000

    WFUS54 KEWX 252100

    TOREWX

    TXC299-252145-

    /O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0001.090325T2100Z-090325T2145Z/

    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

    TORNADO WARNING

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

    400 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...

    SOUTHERN LLANO COUNTY...

    * UNTIL 445 PM CDT.

    * AT 359 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE

    THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

    CASTELL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

    * SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE PRAIRIE MOUNTAIN...OXFORD AND

    GAINESVILLE.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...GET OUT AND GO TO A STURDY

    SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH

    OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

    A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING

    FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

    Has quite a hook.!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    Randy Denzer recently reported a large tornado on the ground with that storm. Aaron Dooley is close by and streaming video on SEvereStudios, but it is very spotty...

    David Drummond and Randy Denzer are both streaming Via Tornadovideos.net btw...

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Tornado Buried in a HP Beast though Tony!

    BTW I got nicked for Speeding Near Marble Falls in 2006!! Grrrr

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
    Yes, since the earlier model output there has been some good increased scope for storm activity across Texas during the afternoon. This needs to be monitored. Though for me the prime risk for tornadoes specifically, will probably occur much later after dark along a line from the far east TX and through into the southern sector of Louisiana. This is the period where a very strong surface boundary should develop.

    SPC have MD issued stating just that now Tony.

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0264

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0529 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

    AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX...CNTRL LA

    CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63...

    VALID 252229Z - 260000Z

    THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 63 CONTINUES.

    THE TORNADO...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER

    THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PARTS

    OF EAST TX AND CNTRL LA.

    SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL TX EWD INTO CNTRL

    LA WITH DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F.

    THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE

    SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AS NEW STORMS INITIATE IN EAST TX

    OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LATEST WSR-88 VWPS FROM EAST TX SHOW

    STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND ABOUT 60 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR.

    THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL THREAT AND THIS THREAT

    SHOULD PERSIST. TORNADOES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED STRONG

    TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL

    ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Atornado watch now issued by the SPC

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0064.html

    Would not like to be in Louisiana with night fall approaching fast a large tornado could be looming in what could be described as a horrendous night ahead.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Looked like Louisiana escaped the worst last night only for the state of Mississippi to be hit bad with 5 reported tornadoes(so far). 4 of these tornadoes came in with the storms that were hammering Texas earlier but only 1 tornado reported there.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

    Severe weather has now moved into Alabama and tornado watch in effect.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0067.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey

    Fox news are reporting serious damage to a town with 17 injured caused by a tornado.

    CNN reporting two tornados, with 69 buildings destroyed in total.

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