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Day 4-8 Outlook Thread


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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Use this thread for Upcoming Possible Severe Model Outputs - Looks like next round of Severe Weather across the S Plains possible next weekend

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2009

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...

SERIES OF STG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH LARGE SCALE

NERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND DIG SEWD INTO CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH.

FIRST OF THESE -- NOW OVER INTERIOR PACIFIC NW -- SHOULD EJECT NEWD

ACROSS MN ARROWHEAD/LS REGION DAY-4/1ST-2ND. ANY SVR POTENTIAL

ALONG TRAILING FL PANHANDLE FRONTAL ZONE...CARRYING OVER FROM DAY-3

PERIOD...APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. NEXT

PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PACIFIC

DATELINE NEAR 40N -- MAY DIG SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES THEN PIVOT

EWD OVER MIDDLE OR LOWER MS VALLEY DURING DAYS 4-5/1ST-3RD TIME

FRAME. CONSIDERABLE PROG SPREAD EXISTS REGARDING AMPLITUDE AND

LATITUDE OF THIS PERTURBATION. THAT...ALONG WITH UNCERTAIN MOISTURE

RETURN FOLLOWING PRIOR SYSTEM...PRECLUDES CATEGORICAL SVR OUTLOOK

ATTM.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE -- NOW EVIDENT E OF JAPAN NEAR 40N150E --

GENERALLY IS PROGGED TO CROSS PACIFIC AND EVOLVE INTO DEEP TROUGH

OVER SWRN/CENTRAL CONUS DAYS 6-7/3RD-5TH TIME FRAME...THEN EWD OVER

MS VALLEY AROUND DAY-8/5TH-6TH. THIS SYSTEM MAY YIELD CONSIDERABLE

SVR EVENT SOMEWHERE OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN CONUS...SOMETIME DURING

UPCOMING WEEKEND -- FRIDAY EVENING THRU SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TOO MANY

UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN UPPER SYSTEM TIMING/TRACK...AND RESPONSE OF

LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS...TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC OUTLOOK AREA YET.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Good Model Agreement now for a Severe Weather Outbreak across the Southern Plains on Saturday 4th April

post-24-1238402582_thumb.png

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0328 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2009

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...

PROGRESSIVE SERIES OF MID-UPPER LEVEL LOWS -- EMBEDDED WITHIN

HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- WILL CONTINUE TO DIP SEWD FROM

PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL CONUS LARGE-SCALE TROUGH POSITION THEN EJECT

EWD/ENEWD. LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE NOW S OF AK PENINSULA SHOULD

AMPLIFY AND DIG SEWD TO SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH DAY-3...PERHAPS

DEVELOPING COMPACT 500 MB LOW AS IT MOVES FROM TX TO SRN

APPALACHIANS DAY-4/2ND-3RD. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE IN WAKE OF DAYS

2-3 SYSTEM SHOULD RETREAT FAR ENOUGH N TO ALLOW FAVORABLE MOISTURE

RETURN INLAND OVER CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST REGION...AT LEAST ACROSS

COASTAL PLAIN...SPREADING UNDERNEATH STG MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT

GRADIENTS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING LOW ALOFT...IN

SUPPORT OF WELL-ORGANIZED SVR EVENT.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY

ALONG 40N S OF WRN ALEUTIANS...SHOULD DIG SEWD ACROSS GREAT BASIN

AND BECOME DEEP TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW OVER GREAT BASIN AND

CENTRAL/SERN ROCKIES DAYS 5-6/3RD-5TH. TIMING STILL REMAINS

SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT GENERAL SCENARIO OF INTENSE SRN ROCKIES/SRN

HIGH PLAINS TROUGH BY THEN HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT ACROSS

MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN. PROBABILITY OF ROBUST WARM SECTOR

RETURN FLOW AND FAVORABLE OVERLYING WINDS WITH SUCH A PATTERN BY

DAY-6/SATURDAY/4TH-5TH...INDICATES POTENTIAL SVR OUTBREAK OVER

PORTIONS S-CENTRAL CONUS THIS COMING WEEKEND.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

I find it interesting that this will be happening over an area which is currently still under a bit of snow cover. I don't think this will limit potential at all. If anything, the snow melt might add to the available ground moisture and result in higher dewpoints through evaporation. I was also thinking that the depth of the recent system into the GOM might affect moisture quality, but that only seems to be a real problem for tomorrow's system, with dews rushing in behind. I'll be keeping an eye on yet another nice weekend system.

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Posted
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.

I see a good virtual chase coming on for tomorrow as the outlook is continued moderate Thurs 2nd April.

MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LOWER MS VALLEY AND

SWRN TN TO WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA....

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Not great chase territory on the road for tomorrow's highlighted MDT risk, but nonetheless potential there for some discrete supercells with damaging tornadoes, especially near the warm front - so will be interesting to follow!

Unfortunately no classic Plains chases look likely in the coming days, looking at at days 4-8 aswell, as the risk areas seem to be centred over SE US ... though we have a SLGT over Ern OK/NE TX today.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

I wouldn't rule out a possible virtual chase on day 4 in nice areas just yet. Moisture is a real problem, but the LLJ is very strong. 15 degree DP's are way down in the GoM at 00z Sat morning, but they are into mid OK my mid evening. If that system was to slow down by maybe 6 hours, there'd be a decent chase up the I35 corridor. As it is progged, the moisture arrives too late and we'd be looking at an overnight squall line in eastern OK with a slight chance of some cold core action up in Northern Kansas or Southern Nebraska, before a reasonable looking event on day 5 in the same areas as tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.

I have never chased that far SE in the US but if it is anything like the Gulf coast of Texas it will consist of poor road networks and bad visibility due to patchy folage!...Though having said that if there was nothing else to chase in the USA whilst on vacation then I would probably still venture that way. :rolleyes:

Today's outlook gives a different perspective from each model. Hopefully things will look clearer later on today. Storms will be ongoing throughout today along the SE Gulf Coast States along the outflow boundary ahead of the cold front. By early evening we have a significant chance for stronger storm development Central Alabama through to central west Georgia as the CAPE recedes back toward the coast. Very strong upper jet enhances storm cell development with the added risk of an isolated strong tornado! Certainly one to watch for later!

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Posted
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.

An accurate severe weather forecast remains questionable within the models. Pre frontal MCS continues to saturate the atmosphere ahead of the cold font with rain cooled air. Focus for the best convection within the cold front will rely on a speedy recovery of surface temps. One tornado just reported southern MS though the cold front looks to be a very linear feature ATM. Though if we look at the combined potential instability to be released and the exceptional helicity values tornadoes remain a strong possibility over the next few hrs close to any bowing line segment. Prime positioning ATM looks to be specifically central Alabama between 21Z-00Z.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Noticed they have downgraded today's outlook to SLIGHT now, though tornado warnings abound in Nern Florida now:

http://www.weather.gov/view/national.php?prodtype=tornado

Seems like the ongoing convection during the day across the Gulf States has stabilised and cooled the moist returning Gulf airmass somewhat - so this seems to have lessened the chances of strong tornadoes:

ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT THE THREAT FOR

MULTIPLE LONG-LIVED/DAMAGING TORNADOES HAS DECREASED JUST SLIGHTLY

ACROSS THIS REGION.

Maybe we should start dedicated virtual threads in the new 2009 storm chase area?

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Going to leave the Virtual Threads in here if thats okay Nick, leave the Storm Chase 2009 Thread for Day to Day Reporting when we are out there, there will also be a Thread dedicated to our Live Streaming.

Tony SPC Sometimes come up with funny Charts, Remember the Storm Report that said Elephants were Running Loose in Wakeeney (Ks) :)

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Right you are Paul ... :good:

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
LOL

How rude is that :good:

post-24-1238704033_thumb.png

I think the best place to be would be here.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0348 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2009

Wow

Moisture really is a problem this year it seems, another Cold Front clearing the Gulf Of Mexico of Moisture and end of next weeks System coming across from the Desert SW Looks to be starved as well, so right up to the 11th looks likely to be a "No Go" for Severe, April looking benign until Mid Month at least it seems!

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...

A SEASONABLY COLD UPR TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TRANSLATE OUT OF

THE ERN CONUS DURING MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS

TROUGH WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...ENDING CONCERNS FOR

WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT UPR LOW IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW ON

TUESDAY AND ARRIVE IN THE SRN PLNS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE OH VLY/DEEP SOUTH DURING THE END OF

NEXT WEEK. SPEED AND ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT

DESPITE ANY STRONG RETURN FLOW DEVELOPMENT...ONLY MODIFIED NW

CARIBBEAN/GULF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL

TEMPER THE SVR RISKS ASSOCD WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AND WILL

PRECLUDE A HIGHER-END MEDIUM RANGE SVR OTLK.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Although its a long way off, GFS and SPC hinting at a severe outbreak next weekend - atm for Texas and parts of Sern/High Plains through the Gulf States area ... as a much more amplified upper trough moves in from the west coast and amplifies as it crosses SW USA. sfc lee low sits on the eastern edge of the Rockies getting some much needed moisture return hopefully:

00z Sunday 12th April (18z Sat US time):

post-1052-1238941238_thumb.pngpost-1052-1238941252_thumb.png

post-1052-1238941353_thumb.png

Chance of some slights this week, though mositure return looks limited.

SPC hints at this in the 4-8 day outlook:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0345 AM CDT SUN APR 05 2009

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...

AN AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST FROM WED INTO NEXT

WEEKEND. A PARADE OF UPR LOWS WILL AFFECT THE SRN TIER OF THE

COUNTRY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF EACH ENTITY IS BELOW

AVERAGE. LEAD SYSTEM...PART OF WHICH WILL ARRIVE IN CA ON

TUE/WED...WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND

THE SRN STATES IN THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME. RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A

MODIFIED GLFMEX AIR MASS NWD AND OFFER SOME SVR THREAT ACROSS THESE

AREAS...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT. MORE

IMPORTANT EVENT MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING AGAIN IS

UNCLEAR. THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND

OFFER A HIGHER SVR RISK THAN ITS PREDECESSOR. UNTIL MEDIUM RANGE

MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT...A SVR RISK WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED.

..RACY.. 04/05/2009

Chance of some slights this week, though mositure return looks limited. Next weekend's potential still uncertain, but 00z ECM looks fairly good also:

post-1052-1238941816_thumb.pngpost-1052-1238941843_thumb.png

Fingers crossed ...

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Following on from the earlier hints above, Models begining to fall into place for a possible severe few days on Saturday for TX, then further east for Sunday:

post-1052-1239103992_thumb.png

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0350 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2009

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...

THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE PATTERN OF ERN PAC

SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AMPLIFYING INTO CLOSED LOWS ALONG THE CA

CST...THEN EJECTING EWD INTO THE SRN PLNS. THE LEAD UPR SYSTEM THAT

IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THU-THU NIGHT

ACROSS THE SRN PLNS...OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH

THE TN/OH VLYS AND WEAKEN ON FRIDAY. MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE

ENTRAINMENT IS LIKELY AS FAR N AS THE TN VLY AND SOME SVR MAY OCCUR

IN THAT AREA ON FRIDAY...THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A MEDIUM

RANGE SVR OUTLOOK.

00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE WITHIN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SECOND

UPR LOW PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.

LLVL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SHOVED TOO FAR S BY THE LEAD SYSTEM AND

SHOULD RAPIDLY RETURN NWD INTO TX. AVAILABILITY OF RICHER THETA-E

AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE LEE-LOW/DRYLINE ACROSS WCNTRL TX WILL BE FOCI

FOR SATURDAY EVENING TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SSWLY LLJ SHOULD INTENSIFY

SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE ORGANIZED SVR EVENT EVOLVING

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX.

AS THE UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS

WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE LWR MS/TN VLYS SUNDAY. ATTENDANT SFC LOW

SHOULD MIGRATE NEWD ALONG THE INTENSIFYING WRMFNT TOWARD TN SUNDAY

NIGHT WITH A STOUT SWLY LLJ TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH LA...MS AND AL.

ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP UPSCALE FROM THE MORNING

ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN TX AND REACH THE TN VLY-DIXIE SUNDAY NIGHT.

..RACY.. 04/07/2009

There is a SLIGHT before then out for Thursday east of the I-35 and west of the Mississippi:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Looking like the active Period to continue with Severe Storms expected Thur and Fri this week.

post-24-1239614647_thumb.png

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0328 AM CDT MON APR 13 2009

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL FALL OVER

THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AS UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO THE 4-CORNERS

REGION THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD THEN SLOW ITS EWD PROGRESSION

INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DUE TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED NEAR

THE MS VALLEY. STRONGER FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD A GRADUALLY

MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD

RESULT IN A MULTI-DAY CONVECTIVE EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF TX/OK/KS/NEB.

WITH DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INTERCEPT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY

ACROSS TX/OK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY BE LIMITED FARTHER

NORTH...DESPITE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITHIN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW

MOVEMENT OF UPPER SYSTEM NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND MCS/S

SHOULD EVOLVE DURING THE DAY4-5 TIME FRAME.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0346 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE AMPLIFIED UPPER

TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE EASTERN STATES DURING THE MIDDLE TO

LATTER PART OF THE COMING WORK WEEK...WITH A TENDENCY FOR INCREASED

TROUGHINESS IN THE WEST. THIS WILL UNDOUBTABLY CONTRIBUTE TO

INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN

WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN.

HOWEVER...MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT A STRONG MOISTURE RETURN

INTO AND THROUGH THE PLAINS IS UNLIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE POCKETS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT

WAVELENGTH PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW MAY

YIELD NON-NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE

SPREAD AMONG NCEP MREF MEMBERS CONCERNING THESE FEATURES IS QUITE

LARGE. THIS LIMITS THE ABILITY TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS AND DELINEATE

THE RISK FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

Well that is a pretty good 4-8 Day in my Book and lets just hope the Systems dont rip up the Plains on Saturday and Sunday and gets pushed back a few days.

Regarding the Outlook for the 1st Chase Day proper and the rest of that week, Models are STILL Showing Troughs ploughing through from the West Coast!

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

So it might be a chase around Texas,Okl or Kans.. Paul for this day :)

Havent seen CAPE this high here before :mellow:

and a good Jet Stream on this date..

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Latest From the SPC - Which now covers our arrival - Things to Note from this is the Amplified Pattern Setting up which is what we wanted to See, Problems at the moment seem to be the Members differing on the Evolution of the 1st Big Trough, GFS Has slowed this down, ECMWF Is looking favourable as the Low gets stuck in the Plains for around 3-4 Days, so as soon as these differences get Sorted in the next few days would expect to see a Day 5,6,7 or 8 Risk on the 4-8 Day Page!

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0345 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A

TRANSITION FROM A WESTERN RIDGE/AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROUGH TO

AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THIS

FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SUBSTANTIVE

RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO... THROUGH THE

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LATE

THIS COMING WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME WARM

ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR SHOULD ALSO ADVECT EAST OF THE

ROCKIES/PLATEAU REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS IT OVERSPREADS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

HOWEVER...THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS... INCLUDING THE MREF

MEMBERS...CONCERNING THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE

LARGER-SCALE PATTERN IS VERY LARGE AS EARLY AS DAY 4...AND REMAINS

SO THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS CONTINUES TO

LIMIT THE ABILITY TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS AND DELINEATE THE RISK FOR A

SEVERE THREAT AREA.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Currently sat in a hotel in Basingstoke where I am on a course all week, but I'm trying to keep an eye on how things are looking. the ECMWF is showing a nice trough over the western US moving into a nice position for Monday, but then retrogrades this back west a little which may temper the following days somewhat. I'd imagine that may then eject east later in the week giving more severe chances although this may be a bit further north than the current gfs indicates. Monday looks really good with a 850mb wind peak around the panhandles and into W Kansas. Could be steak for dinner in the Big texan at the end of the day? :lol:

The Last time I looked at the GFS, it wasn't quite as bullish and I think was a bit quicker which wouldn't be as good for you guys, but the new run is coming through at the moment and I can't check it out. I'm a big follower of the ECMWF models anyway so hopefully you should set off with a bang.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

I have a Feeling that when the 4-8 day Updates in the next few hours there will be quite a good Risk day and Hatched area for Day 5!! :)

Saturday looking a very good Chase Day in Oklahoma from current Models.

Paul S

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