Deep Solar Minimum

[Methuselah]

The reporting still does not take account of the possible impact the sun has had on so called global warming. When comments such as 'this quiet period is unlikely to offset global warming' I get very frustrated. In my opinion this is incorrect reporting and its about time a more balance output was given by our media and especially the BBC

Actually, that's not what the article said at all. It said that many scientists believe it will have some kind of effect...but, until we know more, we can only hypothesise...

[Mondy]

Interesting R2 news at 8 have just picked up on the quiet sun.

Article here on bbc website

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8008473.stm

The Sun hasn't been decreasing in activity since 1985. Was the maximum of Cycle 23 a washout? Don't thinkso. Where do they wheel out these people from? For one, it goes against Hathaway at NASA's prediction (although he is continually moving goalposts with regards length of cycle 24)

1985 shows the end of cycle 22, the 23 ramps back up again

[LadyPakal]

If that chart shows SC23 from 1997 to current, then 1985 must have been the start of SC22, not the end?

Updated version here: http://sidc.oma.be/html/wolfmms.html

Edited April 21, 2009 by LadyPakal

[Mondy]

Ah, did I just lose a decade somewhere.. lol

[BARRY]

A new sunspot is forming and is confirmed as cycle 24,It will probable fade away just as quick.

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

If a New sun spot is forming and is confirmed as solar cycle 24

how can the new cycle be started already , link below

http://www.scienceblog.com/cms/new-sunspot...gins-15154.html

According to this report, Solar cycle 24 started last January 2008

nigel

[LadyPakal]

There have been a few SC24 spots - this isn't the first and there tends to be some overlap between spots from new and old cycles before the new one becomes dominant. They decide when a new cycle starts by looking at the first time new cycle spots exceed old spots over a period of time - they can usually only tell when that was some months after it actually occurred. I think the Jan 08 date may have been a tad premature tho' as that was simply when the first SC24 spot was seen and not when new outnumbered old.

They can tell which cycle the spot belongs to from looking at the orientation of the magnetic poles & location of the spot on the sun where it forms.

http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-index-graphics/sidc_graphics.php

See the butterfly diagrams here for an overlapping spot cycles chart.

[noggin]

http://www.solarcycle24.com/index2.htm

There is a new sunspot. I feel a small sense of disappointment as I was enjoying the "novelty" of such a long spotless spell! However, perhaps it will be a month or more before the next one.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8008473.stm

.........and where do we go from here? Who knows?

Professor Louise Hara of UCL told the Beeb.....

"At the moment, there are scientific papers coming out suggesting that we'll be going into a normal period of activity soon. Others are suggesting we'll be going into another minimum period - this is a big scientific debate at the moment".

Exciting, isn't it!

Yes, alright, I'm a bit of a saddo........

its about time a more balance output was given by our media and especially the BBC

You can say that again! It drives me nuts. I have taken it upon myself to pillory the media in this respect, to anyone who'll listen!

My daughters probably think "oh crikey*, she's off on one again!"

* or whatever word teenagers and twenty-somethings use!

[jethro]

http://www.solarcycle24.com/index2.htm

My daughters probably think "oh crikey*, she's off on one again!"

* or whatever word teenagers and twenty-somethings use!

I think if they go off for an adventure on their bicycles in the summer holidays, armed with jam sandwiches and ginger beer, then it's probably still "crikey".

[Typhoon John]

The Solar Flux has been gradually rising since the start of the year so that would indicate the minimum was around the start of the year. But that doesn't necessarily mean we'll see many sunspots, especially if you believe Livingston and Penn.

Edited April 22, 2009 by fozi999

[jethro]

The Solar Flux has been gradually rising since the start of the year so that would indicate the minimum was around the start of the year. But that doesn't necessarily mean we'll see many sunspots, especially if you believe Livingston and Penn.

That's not what this says:

http://www.solarcycle24.com/

[Mondy]

Actually Jethro, the flux has increased slightly recently. By increased I mean it's leapt from a low of 67 to a now consistent ~70.

Max 80 73 89 78 72 67 67 68 69 72 71 71 72 71 72

That's from Jan 08 to now.

Also, a little insight: http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/2/6

Edited April 22, 2009 by Delta X-Ray

[jethro]

Actually Jethro, the flux has increased slightly recently. By increased I mean it's leapt from a low of 67 to a now consistent ~70.

Max 80 73 89 78 72 67 67 68 69 72 71 71 72 71 72

That's from Jan 08 to now.

Also, a little insight: http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/2/6

But Fozi said it's been gradually rising since the start of the year, suggesting that things are on the up. They may well be, time will tell, but it's been fairly static for the last six months with little indication that it's about to change.

[Mondy]

It has been gradually rising since the start of the year when you consider a record low of 64.2 occured in July last year.

Edited April 22, 2009 by Delta X-Ray

[jethro]

Jan 09 - 72

Feb 09 - 71

Mar 09 - 72

It's hovered around that mark for the last 7 months; yes it's higher than the lows in June and July last year but it hasn't risen this year, nor showing any signs of it doing so yet.

[Mondy]

Forgive the cross forum link Jethro (i'm on there a lot) but these guys do explain better than me! I ain't no Leif Svalgaard, but to quote him:

except the F10.7 keeps on growing...

and another:

Yes the F10.7 is slowly ramping up

Link (page 45)

Edited April 22, 2009 by Delta X-Ray

[jethro]

But going by their official figures which you and I have both quoted, there was an increase last summer, since then it's been static.

I agree that going by those figures, minimum has probably passed but 24 is still showing little sign of wanting to get off the ground any time soon.

[Typhoon John]

Jan 09 - 72

Feb 09 - 71

Mar 09 - 72

It's hovered around that mark for the last 7 months; yes it's higher than the lows in June and July last year but it hasn't risen this year, nor showing any signs of it doing so yet.

Those figures don't look adjusted. The flux varies throughout the year because of the distance between the sun and the earth. You need to use the adjusted figures to cut out these variations and see the real trend.

The figures for the year so far are:

Jan - 67.6

Feb - 68.3

Mar - 68.6

Taken from: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/ftpsolarradio.html

If you look at the data the flux on March 31st was 71.1 and I read somewhere (sorry, forgotten where exactly) that the flux for April is averaging over 70 so it definitely seems like we've turned the corner and we're on the rise, albeit a very small rise.

[Mondy]

Flux has been 71 for pretty much all of April. Slow rise, but it's better than 64 (or 67) ;-)

[Mondy]

It's been a long, cold, lonely winter but, here comes the Sun.