Tropical Cyclone Lin

[Somerset Squall]

93P has rapidly consolidated overnight, with deep central convection and some formative banding features forming. As a result, Tropical Cyclone Lin is born, with an initial intensity of 35kts.

Lin is located a couple hundred miles east of Fiji, and is moving quickly south-southeast, along a monsoon trough in the north-northwesterly flow. This should take Lin away from land so the cyclone isn't expected to be a major threat. Lin is expected to rapidly strengthen in the next 12 hours as shear is low, waters are warm and dual outflow channels have formed. JTWC expect a peak of 50kts before weakening commences. As I mentioned in the invest thread, shear is expected to dramatically increase over Lin beyond 12hrs which should cause a weakening trend to begin and dissipation shortly after 48hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

Lin is moving rapidly southwards towards colder waters and higher shear. However, Lin has made good use of the currently favourable conditions and has strengthened to 50kts. Good banding features are wrapping into the LLC and dense convection is persisting also. Lin is likely to begin extratropical transition in 24-36hrs time, and is likely to be a formidable extratropicl storm by 48hrs.

[Cookie]

A bit of action thanks for the updates mate

Storm Alert issued at 4 Apr, 2009 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm LIN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Nuku' alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)

probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[J07]

Once it's completed ET, it may still be a powerful storm, but where on earth will it go? The mid latitude ridge to the south is a real monster.

[J07]

Conditions have eased in Nuku'alofa:

NFTF 050400Z 30015KT 9999 FEW006 SCT110 BKN280 27/25 Q1000 RERA RMK

Earlier on today (just a few hours ago), winds were sustained gale with gusts above 50 knots in the city. Temperatures were about 25/25, with abundant CBs, and heavy rain and thunder reported. Really horrible conditions. Not sure about the damage yet.

[Somerset Squall]

Conditions have eased in Nuku'alofa:

NFTF 050400Z 30015KT 9999 FEW006 SCT110 BKN280 27/25 Q1000 RERA RMK

Earlier on today (just a few hours ago), winds were sustained gale with gusts above 50 knots in the city. Temperatures were about 25/25, with abundant CBs, and heavy rain and thunder reported. Really horrible conditions. Not sure about the damage yet.

Not nice indeed. 25C with a gale is going to feel really unpleasant, I don't know how I would have coped with that. Hopefully damage is minimal.

Lin is slowly weakening now and intensity has been reduced to 45kts. She is still mvong southwards towards colder waters and higher shear. Extratropical transition has begun and may be complete in as soon as 24hrs time.

Edited April 5, 2009 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Thankfully only minor damage being reported for Tonga:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/artic...jectid=10565418

Lin is now extratropical. No convection remains directly related to the LLC and is instead decoupled to the southeast.

[Cookie]

thats always good news re damage