Moderate Risk Svr Tstms OK/KS/MO/AR 9th April 09

[Tony Gilbert]

SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS

PARTS OF SRN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU Thurs 9th April 09

Some uncertainties regarding moisture return ATM but the potential is definitely there!

[Paul Sherman]

Having looked at the GFS/RUC/NAM Over the last few days all parameters to me look like the I40 Corridoor North East of Tulsa running up into SW Misery. If we were out there now I would certainly be targeting this Area, Could get a few Discrete Supercells from around 00z in this area that could produce a few Tornadoes early in there life cycle. But you would have to jump on them quick.

Paul S

[NL]

Looks like the NAM was under-estimating Dp's as SPC have upgraded to moderate risk for today around e oklahoma into the Arkansas

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Paul Sherman]

Changing Topic Title - Looks very nice for some Tornadoes today, Hodographs show good veering in the lower layers, I would expect between 5-10 Tornadoes somewhere NE Oklahoma, SW Missouri, SE Kansas today, with 1 or 2 of them Significant EF2 Or Above.

Nice Storm Motions of around 20-40mph as well this early in the Season

Paul S

[NL]

Mesoscale discussion now issued for potential tornado watch and severe potential.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/

[Rob]

oooh, something to watch i love american storm season!

[Paul Sherman]

http://audioplayer.wunderground.com/kokbro...m/Tulsa.mp3.m3u

Listen to this Link - Effectively our Weather Radio we use when Chasing but Online

Paul S

[NL]

This Tornado watch has not been issued yet, but sure it will be soon

.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 123

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

145 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL

900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF

CHANUTE KANSAS TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...POTENT TROUGH AND STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS

OK AND N/S DRY LINE IN ADVANCE JUST E OF I35 CORRIDOR. AIRMASS IN

ADVANCE OF DRY LINE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AND WITH STRONG SHEAR

PROFILES AND LARGE ASCENT WITH TROUGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL

RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ERN OK. IN ADDITION TO VERY

LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES POSSIBLY STRONG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY

SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS.

A MODERATE likelyhood of EF2+ tornadoes.

[NL]

Latest visible satellite image.

[Tony Gilbert]

I'm taking a maybe different stance to the SPC ATM regarding prime region at risk. Whilst a tornado watch is in place for Oklahoma ATM, it is quite possible that any vigorous convection will be capped off for a couple of hrs yet. RUC place an impenetrable cap over much of the region. For now this can only serve to amplify the moisture advection toward the NE.

0-3km shear is very strong and should be enough to compensate 0-1km shear. Conditions look to be in place for the development of very large hail and isolated tornado reports across SW Arkansas 22Z-03Z. Which is very bad chase country!

The overall risk of severe weather may not be as widely distributed as what the SPC risk boxes are suggesting due to continued capping IMO. The set up nevertheless warrants a serious risk of strong tornadoes developing in a lined cluster. My virtual chase puts me on the state border between OK and AR around DeQueen Highway 70 now.

There will be 2 to 3 major supercells in a back building motion (almost cyclic in nature) . All capable of producing tornadoes. I Wll take the last cell to the south which will likely utilise the strongest shear potential.

There are no guarantees when making predictions but thats my best shot ATM

[NL]

tornado warning Macintosh county oklahoma.

TornadoWarning - 09/2230Z

WFUS54 KTSA 092151

TORTSA

OKC091-092230-

O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0009.090409T2151Z-090409T2230Z

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

451 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL MCINTOSH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 451 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES

NORTHWEST OF RAIFORD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...RAIFORD...

VIVIAN...STIDHAM...CHECOTAH AND RENTIESVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO

UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE

LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

[Nick F]

All turning a bit linear over Ern OK... would hope for something a little more discrete, maybe best bet on the southern end of that line of something discrete backbulding south. Something could always spin up in that line east of Tulsa though ...

[NL]

SPC are beginning to realize the linear potential and have issued another mesoscale discussion for the tornado watch area.

MCD - 10/0045Z

ACUS11 KWNS 092240

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 092239

ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-100045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0415

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0539 PM CDT THU APR 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/ERN OK/SWRN MO/WRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 123...

VALID 092239Z - 100045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 123 CONTINUES.

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WITH ONGOING STORMS.

CONVECTION CONTINUES SPREADING EWD/NEWD ACROSS WW 123...WITH THE

MAIN AXIS OF STORMS EXTENDING SWD IN AN ARC FROM NEAR THE WARM

FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION INVOF GREENWOOD/ELK COUNTIES IN KS INTO

ERN OK NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING DRYLINE.

WITH THE PRE-DRYLINE WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED-LAYER CAPE

AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW

60S...THERMODYNAMICS REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTION.

FURTHER...WITH SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA

VEERING/INCREASING WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY AT 60 TO 70 KT AT MID

LEVELS...SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LONG-LIVED/SUPERCELL STORMS

-- AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

WHILE SEVERAL ISOLATED/ROTATING CELLS PERSIST...A TREND TOWARD A

MORE LINEAR ORGANIZATION WITH TIME MAY OCCUR...AS THE COLD FRONT

MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK EVENTUALLY OVERTAKES THE

DRYLINE. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY INCREASE IN THIS

SCENARIO.

[NL]

Doppler radar showing strong rotation and this storm has history of producing tornadic activity.

TornadoWarning - 09/2345Z

WWUS54 KTSA 092305

SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

605 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

OKC035-041-115-092345-

O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-090409T2345Z

DELAWARE OK-CRAIG OK-OTTAWA OK-

605 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR

SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA...SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG AND NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE

COUNTIES...

AT 604 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO TRACK A

POTENTIALLY TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION.

THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VINITA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS

VERY DANGEROUS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO...TAKE

COVER NOW!

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...AFTON...

BLUEJACKET...FAIRLAND AND NARCISSA.

[Cookie]

sat image

[NL]

Turning quite messy now with embedded storms producing tornado signatures, another tornado warning issued

TornadoWarning - 10/0000Z

WFUS54 KTSA 092323

TORTSA

OKC061-077-079-100000-

O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0011.090409T2323Z-090410T0000Z

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

623 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN HASKELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

LATIMER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

WESTERN LE FLORE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 623 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES EAST OF

DAMON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...RED OAK...

FANSHAWE AND MCCURTAIN.

[NL]

No tornado reports as yet, but tornado warnings still issued as doppler radar indicates rotation on cells to the south east Oklahoma

on the tail end of the linear storms.

TornadoWarning - 10/0000Z

WFUS54 KTSA 092337

TORTSA

OKC079-127-100000-

O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0012.090409T2337Z-090410T0000Z

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

637 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EASTERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 637 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES SOUTH OF

NASHOBA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...NASHOBA.

[MAF]

Tornado Watch 123

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0123.html

VALID 092325Z - 100040Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW PRX TO

35 SSW GMJ TO 35 SW CNU TO 50 NNW BVO TO 25 SW EMP.

NOAA

[NL]

MD issued for further tornadic activity over the next hour or so for western Arkansas ans SW/Missouri.

MCD - 10/0130Z

ACUS11 KWNS 092359

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 092359

ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-100130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0418

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0659 PM CDT THU APR 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN 2/3 OF AR/SWRN AND S CENTRAL MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 123...

VALID 092359Z - 100130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 123 CONTINUES.

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES OVER SERN KS/SWRN MO/ERN OK/NWRN

AR...AND WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD E OF THE WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES SURGING EWD INTO ERN OK...AND CONTINUES TO

APPROACH THE SLOWER-MOVING DRYLINE. A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS -- WITH

EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS -- JUST AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE CONTINUES SHIFTING

EWD ACROSS SERN KS/ERN OK AND INTO SWRN MO/WRN AR. A TORNADO WAS

RECENTLY REPORTED OVER LATIMER CO OK WITH A SUPERCELL WHICH IS NOW

MOVING NEWD ACROSS WRN LE FLORE CO...ONE OF SEVERAL ROTATING STORMS

ALONG THIS BAND.

STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY

ATTM...WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY E OF THE CURRENT WATCH. WITH DIURNAL

COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY EWD DESTABILIZATION WILL BE

LIMITED. NONETHELESS...WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF

THE FRONT/DRYLINE AND POTENT/COMPACT UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER OVER

NWRN OK SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO

THE EVENING. WHILE THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY GRADUALLY DECREASE

OVERNIGHT...A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY

WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL WW.

[NL]

Tornado warning on discrete cell in NE Texas.

TornadoWarning - 10/0100Z

WFUS54 KSHV 100021

TORSHV

TXC063-343-449-100100-

O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0017.090410T0021Z-090410T0100Z

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

721 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN CAMP COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PITTSBURG...LEESBURG...

MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

TITUS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MOUNT PLEASANT...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 718 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LEESBURG...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

CASON...COOKVILLE...DAINGERFIELD...OMAHA...ROCKY BRANCH...US 259

AND I 30 INTERSECTION...NAPLES AND MOUNT PLEASANT.

[MAF]

TORNADO WATCH 125 ISSUED

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS

SOUTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 720 PM

UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF

SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PINE BLUFF

ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

courtesy NOAA

Full text here http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0125.html

[dogs32]

21 Tornado reports!!!

20 4 E VINITA CRAIG OK 3664 9508 ROOFS TORN OFF OF SEVERAL HOMES AND A BARN. TWO POWER POLES SUPPORTING A TRANSFORMER SNAPPED ABOUT TWO FEET FROM THE GROUND. MOST DAMAGE OCCURRED ALONG 4440 RD, EAST OF (TSA)

2330 8 SE WILBURTON LATIMER OK 3484 9521 TORNADO REPORTED ON GROUND WITH POWER LINES DOWN. (TSA)

2335 MIAMI OTTAWA OK 3687 9488 EM CONFIRMED TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ON SOUTH SIDE OF MIAMI. DAMAGE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. (TSA)

2347 7 ENE NASHOBA PUSHMATAHA OK 3452 9510 KTEN TV RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF A TORNADO...TREE AND FENCE DAMAGE FOR ABOUT A MILE (TSA)

2349 6 W TALIHINA LATIMER OK 3475 9515 TORNADO SPOTTED AT INTERSECTION OF US 270 AND STATE HIGHWAY 2. (TSA)

0033 15 ESE MUSE LE FLORE OK 3459 9452 HOUSE DAMAGED...INJURIES REPORTED...UNKNOWN NUMBER (TSA)

0056 HUGHES SPRINGS CASS TX 3300 9463 (SHV)

0110 MENA POLK AR 3458 9424 CONFIRMED TORNADO IN THE CITY LIMITS OF MENA MOVING WEST TO EAST FROM HIGHWAY 8 WEST OF TOWN. REPORTS OF HOUSE DAMAGED WITH WINDOWS BLOWN OUT...TREES DOWN AND POWER OUT (LZK)

0115 1 N INK POLK AR 3460 9412 STATE TROOPER REPORTS DAMAGE ALONG COUNTY ROAD 74 NORTH OF INK. TIME IS APPROXIMATE. (LZK)

0128 8 SSE DIERKS HOWARD AR 3402 9397 EM REPORTS DAMAGE TO A HOUSE AND CHICKEN HOUSES (SHV)

0129 NIXA CHRISTIAN MO 3704 9329 (SGF)

0136 TURNERS GREENE MO 3718 9316 (SGF)

0153 11 ESE ATLANTA MILLER AR 3306 9399 EM REPORTS OIL RIG TURNED UPSIDE DOWN (SHV)

0314 5 NNW SHREVEPORT CADDO LA 3253 9384 SPOTTER IN THE FIELD REPORTS TREES ON HOUSES IN LAKEVIEW SUBDIVISION AND HWY 169 CLOSED DUE TO TREES ON ROAD (SHV)

0325 2 WSW BOSSIER CITY BOSSIER LA 3251 9371 SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES BLOWN DOWN ON BOONE ST., GILBERT ST., AND MARGERET ST. JUST OFF OF BARKSDALE BLVD. (SHV)

0332 3 SE BLANCHARD CADDO LA 3256 9385 ESTIMATED 10-15 RAIL CARS BLOWN OFF THE TRACK ALONG I-220 AND CADDO LAKE. (SHV)

0333 SHREVEPORT CADDO LA 3247 9380 *** 1 INJ *** TREE FELL ON CAR. 3100 BLOCK OF ASTON. WOMAN TRAPPED IN CAR. (SHV)

0350 3 SE BLANCHARD CADDO LA 3256 9385 ESTIMATED 10-15 RAIL CARS BLOWN OFF THE TRACK ALONG I-220 AND CADDO LAKE. (SHV)

0353 SHREVEPORT CADDO LA 3247 9380 *** 1 INJ *** TREE FELL ON CAR. 3100 BLOCK OF ASTON. WOMAN TRAPPED IN CAR. (SHV)

0358 1 N HEFLIN WEBSTER LA 3247 9327 SEVERAL TREES REPORTED DOWN NEAR HIGWAY 531 AND ON HWY 371 (SHV)

0438 4 SSW SIMSBORO LINCOLN LA 3248 9281 TREES DOWN IN THE MONDY ROAD AREA (SHV)

EDIT now 22

0103 300 2 SW MENA POLK AR 3456 9426 LARGE APPLE SIZED HAIL FELL IN SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF MENA. (LZK)

[Nick F]

Woow that was a productive evening/night in the end ... certainly worthy of the MODERATE. Goes to show that even the linear stuff can produce givent he right dynamics.

[dogs32]

latest is 23 now Nick...

I'm sure the total will be higher than 23 in the end

If I have this correct 1 person injured so far

[Tony Gilbert]

I had to turn in early last night. But looked like you guys had quite a show!

ATM several injuries reported but no fatalities, thankfully.

I noted that some tornadoes certainly occurred further north on the Triple Point in MO and much further south in LA within 'Tail End Charlie'