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Slight Risk - W & C Texas And S Texas Panhadle


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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Could be a good Chase day in V Nice Terrain around the Lubbock Area

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    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    1237 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

    VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS

    OF THE SRN PLAINS....

    ...SYNOPSIS...

    MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE AMPLIFIED

    TROUGH WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR WESTERLIES NOW

    MIGRATING ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN

    PLATEAU. AS AN UPSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE APPROACHES THE

    BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH

    IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATER

    TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...AS AN EMBEDDED CLOSED

    LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL

    ROCKIES AND WEAKENS...WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IMPULSE AND

    ASSOCIATED JET STREAK DIG THROUGH THE NORTHWEST MEXICAN

    PLATEAU...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH

    PLAINS. A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BEGIN TO FORM OVER

    THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY.

    MEANWHILE...THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE

    U.S. INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO SHARPEN...WITH A RIDGE

    BUILDING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A TROUGH DIGGING

    SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO AREAS OFF THE

    NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF THE COMPACT

    BUT VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW...WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A WIDESPREAD

    SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID

    SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IS EXPECTED TO

    BE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE

    ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH.

    ...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

    IN THE WAKE OF AN EXPANSIVE COLD SURFACE RIDGE...RETREATING TO THE

    EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MODELS INDICATE A WEAK LOW-LEVEL

    MOISTURE RETURN TO THE VICINITY OF A DEVELOPING LEE SURFACE TROUGH

    ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS IS

    WHERE STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED...WHICH...COUPLED WITH

    AT LEAST MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO

    WEAK MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-750 J/KG. ASSOCIATED WITH

    THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A 50-70 KT

    SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO NOSE

    ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING AND SHORTLY AFTER THE PEAK HEATING

    HOURS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKENING INHIBITION

    ABOVE THE HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE

    INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY

    INCLUDE A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND

    GUSTS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WITHIN THE

    FAIRLY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE SOMEWHAT LARGE...SIZABLE

    CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS COULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AT

    LEAST BRIEF TORNADOES.

    INTO THE EVENING HOURS...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM

    ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD

    VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT JET STREAK NOSING TOWARD

    THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS

    WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT

    WITH A STRONGER INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...THOUGH THIS MAY BE ABOVE A

    STABLE OR STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. REGARDLESS...DESTABILIZATION

    PROBABLY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A RISK FOR LARGE

    HAIL WITHIN AN EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO

    PERSIST AND SPREAD TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT.

    ...FLORIDA...

    THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION IS PROGGED TO RESULT IN

    STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA

    PENINSULA TODAY...CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR

    SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS SHOULD BE MOST

    PRONOUNCED ALONG THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE...WHERE

    LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH

    WARM TEMPERATURES/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING HIGH

    LEVEL RIDGE...WILL BE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS TO CONVECTIVE

    DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM APPEARS POSSIBLE

    DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

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    Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

    * Tornado Warning For...

    Yoakum County In Northwest Texas.

    * Until 515 PM CDT

    * At 445 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler Radar Indicated A

    Severe Thunderstorm Capable Of Producing A Tornado. The Most

    Dangerous Part Of This Storm Was Located 8 Miles West Of Denver

    City...Moving Northeast At 30 Mph.

    * Some Locations Near The Path Of This Storm Include Highway 83 West

    Of Denver City...And Eventually Plains

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