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Atlantic Invest Thread 2009


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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

91L could well be declared a TD later today and will need wathcing very carefully. There is an outside chance of this become a 3rd named storm and a hurricane, as shown by SHIPS, systems do well in that bit of water, it's very warm generally, if it has time, stays away from land it's possible.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Well I just did a post in the wave/disturbance thread and as per normal that wave is now an invest just 15 minutes later!

Anyway 92L has been upgraded from the wave around 50W/ 17N and convection is flaring quite well however there doesn't appear to be much in the way of a surface circulation other then a broad circulation. The ULL is probably helping the convection to strengthen but for now upper conditions are not that favorable for development over the next 48hrs thanks to that upper feature (though it could well end up providing quite a decent outflow set-up to get the system going)

Same synoptic set-up that I mentioned 2 days ago with the wave that may possibly develop closer to the Bahamas appears to be playing out quite well. Yesterday a strong ULL dipped down which is cuasing moderate shear on the tropical wave around 50W 18N. This feature is then progged to move somewhat closer to west past 48hrs towards the bahamas region. At the same time steering currents at lower levels are forecast to slacken which will mean pretty uncertain motion. This is important because it may open up a more favorable set-up for development down the road as the upper level low should move out of the way. I also think the upper trough coming down that lifts this region out could help to strengthen this system as well but we need to wait and see in that respect.

Very early days but the models are suggesting that this could well be a tropical threat to the Carolinas. Much depends on the exact tilt of the upper level trough that is coming down between 96-120hrs. Either way the trough looks likely that its going to have the strength to lift this system out but whether or not it goes out to sea or runs up the east coast is very uncertain.

Finally history teaches us that systems that form near the Bahamas then take the track that the ECM takes up the east coast often become hurricanes so its something to watch very closely.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Invest 93L has formed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Convection has really flared up over the last few hours and the system will probably bering some flooding rains to Nicaragua and neighbouring countries. However, convection is very disorganised at present and I think this system has more chance of development once it moves into the warm water/low shear environment of the far eastern Pacific.

at200993_model.gif

NHC have upgraded 92L to code orange (medium risk of 30-50% of tropical cyclone development within the next 48hrs):

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF

THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE

INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS

SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30

TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

92L

high chance

Zczc miatwoat all

ttaa00 kNHC ddhhmm

NWS Tropical Prediction Center

National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL

200 am edt wed aug 26 2009

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of

disturbed weather, accompanied by gale force winds, is now centered about 350 miles north of Hispaniola. There has been little in change in organization during the past few hours but upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development. This system has the potential to become a tropical storm at any time as it continues moving west-northwestward around 20 mph. There is a high chance, greater than 50 percent, of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.

Additional information on marine warnings associated with this system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header nfdhsfat1 and WMO header fznt01 kwbc.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Forecaster Avila

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Recon has been investigating Invest 92L last night and today, some strong winds have been found so far upto 60Kts flight winds, but No closed circulation.

When it is initialised it might well go straight to Danny, SHIPS currently has it at 40Kts strength.

So atm it's a waiting game, it could get it's act together this evening or might take a day or two.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Looking at all the data this clearly has a LLC but its currently becoming more and more exposed as yet another ULL dives down and heads SW. Here is the exposed 92L, no doubt in my mind despite it being exposed it should be upgraded:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Anyway ULL looks like its still diving SW, the models have a very poor grip on this feature and it means the models will likely not have a good grip on this ones strength down the line, looks like they are too agressive with strengthening, this one will not likely strengthening in the next 12-24hrs becuase of this feature and even longer IF the ULL doesn't move out of the way.

Still this one probably is a very lopsided Danny as of now IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

I so toyed with waiting until I got home before I posted, as the Java that runs the animation doesn't work on my PC at work. Damn, couldn't find any evidence of LLCC in QUISCAT.

I don't think NHC will name it now either though.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Well I'm going to wait for the offical word but looks like this is getting upgraded:

ROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1406 UTC WED AUG 26 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE DANNY (AL052009) 20090826 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090826 1200 090827 0000 090827 1200 090828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.6N 70.0W 25.6N 72.3W 26.3N 74.1W 27.1N 75.4W

BAMD 24.6N 70.0W 25.3N 71.9W 25.8N 73.4W 26.4N 74.9W

BAMM 24.6N 70.0W 25.4N 72.0W 26.0N 73.6W 26.7N 74.8W

LBAR 24.6N 70.0W 26.0N 72.0W 27.1N 73.7W 28.6N 74.9W

SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS 53KTS

DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS 53KTS

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Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)

Well I'm going to wait for the offical word but looks like this is getting upgraded:

ROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1406 UTC WED AUG 26 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE DANNY (AL052009) 20090826 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090826 1200 090827 0000 090827 1200 090828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.6N 70.0W 25.6N 72.3W 26.3N 74.1W 27.1N 75.4W

BAMD 24.6N 70.0W 25.3N 71.9W 25.8N 73.4W 26.4N 74.9W

BAMM 24.6N 70.0W 25.4N 72.0W 26.0N 73.6W 26.7N 74.8W

LBAR 24.6N 70.0W 26.0N 72.0W 27.1N 73.7W 28.6N 74.9W

SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS 53KTS

DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS 53KTS

Yeah your right its now TS Danny

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Yep it is Danny and they forecast it to be a Hurricane.

I am having serious problems with my PC though and caches not updating, Java not working I think I'll hide under a pillow until I get home. :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)

Yep it is Danny and they forecast it to be a Hurricane.

I am having serious problems with my PC though and caches not updating, Java not working I think I'll hide under a pillow until I get home. :good:

Pillow's at work.......... :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

No time to sleep today (unfortunately)

Invest 94L has been named, it's justing coming view on the central Atlantic sats. After coming off Africa as a very organised wave.

Here's the path and SHIPS forecast is for a Hurricane in 72 hrs (however even I think this might be over doing it).

There is however good organisation and evidence of circulation as well as the first few bits of outflow.

The environment isn't set to be good until a few days down the line, when if it's still in some kind of shape this might well explode.

We'll have to see what GFDL and HWRF make of it.

post-6326-12513878928058_thumb.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

GFDL, HWRF and SHIPS all make this a Hurricane and atm it's looking pretty good for an Invest.

GFDL and HWRF which both use RAW GFS output, go for a quick weakness in the ridge sending it northwards, but I don't buy this yet.

Still lots of watching and waiting to do, but this will very very likely be a TS.

NHC have upgraded it to an Orange risk.

post-6326-1251403536246_thumb.jpg

post-6326-12514035537862_thumb.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

94L has really exploded into life today, a solid CDO has formed, outflow, banding and probably some strong intensification over some very warm SST's.

Very little sign of shear and increasing Dvorak numbers, NHC currently have it as a RED.

Forgot to say that circulation is excellent and this will almost certainty be a declared by NHC today, maybe with an interim update even.

The second best looking atlantic storm this season IMO.

It's path is uncertain, it could be either north of west, or NW, a bit of a nervous time for Jamaica etc

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

looks like there is some real organisation in 94L now, i expect it will become Tropical Storm Erika by morning

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Respectfully, I disagree. 94L has some good turning but not yet at the surface. In addition, convection is not persistant in any one area and is being sheared away at present. TD at best in the morning IMO, more likely still an invest. Could be proved wrong of course!

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

accuweather.com seems to be under the depression that it will be at least a depression by the morning, only time will tell.....

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

accuweather.com seems to be under the depression that it will be at least a depression by the morning, only time will tell.....

after some of the images that I have seen from that site this hurricane season, I would take most of what they say with a pinch of salt!

94L

keeping us on are toes

ir4l.jpg

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