Atlantic Invest Thread 2009

[Somerset Squall]

accuweather.com seems to be under the depression that it will be at least a depression by the morning, only time will tell.....

Indeed.

[Rob]

its definately one to watch, but after the disaster that was danny i won't expect anything much.

[Iceberg]

Yes I looked at some further images, I still firmly believe it has an LLCC, I also fully admit that it had some shear, however the shear was only effecting the west and the east had some very good outflow.

Your right to disagree with me Somerset, it's morning and still not a tracked system by the NHC ! :lol:

The floater seems to be touch and go with it's images however the latest image I can find pre the 4-7am blackout is as good an Invest as I've ever seen.

If they are not right about the LLCC, then this could be quite a storm when they finally name her. Particularly as land interaction could occur in the next 3 days.

Recon are due in later today though.

[Iceberg]

Here's a morning pic.

The antilles are in sight, but it should past to the north of them.

[Iceberg]

Still looks good, but we need to wait for good daylight pictures to see the low level circulation and recon.

NHC have updated to say that they are still unsure whether their is a LLCC under the convection. SHIPS, DVORAK etc have this now as a 30Kt system. With winds under the convection of 40+ Kts.

[Iceberg]

Here's the latest high res wind diagram taken just now with sat. I've put on where the centre seems to be.

If you look really really carefully at the winds you can just see a few winds closing the LLCC at the surface, touch and go whether that's enough to call a closed circulation, but it must be very shortly.

Also some really strong 40-45Kt winds in the NW quad already. So straight to a tropical storm seems likely.

[Jack Wales]

To me this system appears to be under the effect of South westerly upper level shear which is shifting the main convection to the east of the LLC. It certainly appears to have potential for tropical storm and eventual hurricane status with winds expected to be more favourable farther to the west in a couple of days. It wil be interesting to see what recon come back with

[Iceberg]

Recon are in there currently and have found 1007mb 35Kt surface winds and a closed circulation I believe, the circulation is also very evident on visual loops and has been since approx 2pm IMO.

Very little doubt that this will be Erika at approx 9.30pm this evening.

Agree re the Shear the convection is entirely on the east side of the centre, it's been interesting seeing how badly the models have been initialising her.

[Jack Wales]

We have tropical storm Erika...

NOAA

[Cookie]

we now have invest 95L

[Cookie]

95L

not looking great

[Cookie]

we now have 96L

[Somerset Squall]

Looks pretty decent Cookie, some really deep convection exploding in the area at the moment and the wave is already showing signs of good rotation despite having just emerged off the coast of Africa. 96L must head west if it has any chance of becoming a tropical depression however, as destructive levels of shear lie to the north which has just destroyed 95L. Your animation quite clearly shows this.

Edited September 6, 2009 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

96L now at code red

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[Somerset Squall]

Yup, looking really good now, looks like 96L has a surface circulation with deep convection persisting over it. Could well see this one upgraded tonight based on satellite appearance.

[Jack Wales]

Yes judging by the look of the system the nhc may have been a bit conservative in their assessment. There appears to be banding wrapping itself around the strong convection at the centre. The easterly shear appears to have reduced on the live image above so I wouldn't be surprised if this system intensified rapidly in that it could be a hurricane by this time tomorrow.

[Cookie]

98L

[Cookie]

98L

medium chance now for development

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE

WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM

STILL HAS SOME CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE

EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS

IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[londonsnow]

the hurricane season in the atlantic will be over in a matter of a few weeks. i don't know the stats but this must have been one of weakest seasons on record

[Somerset Squall]

Quite similar in numbers in 1997 for the Atlantic, another El Nino year. The East and West Pacific basins were truly insane that year.

[Tn9]

Quite similar in numbers in 1997 for the Atlantic, another El Nino year. The East and West Pacific basins were truly insane that year.

Invest 91 is now tropical storm Henri

[Cookie]

we now have 92L

[londonsnow]

can we fairly safely say that the 2009 atlantic hurricane season is over. what a benign season. the highlight for me was grace spinning into ireland. incredible imagary for this part of the world.

[Somerset Squall]

I think we will have one more storm yet. Season is not over till November 30th and though shear is currently high the Caribbean waters are very much warm enough to support a strong system still if it finds a favourable upper level environment.

[Cookie]

can we fairly safely say that the 2009 atlantic hurricane season is over. what a benign season. the highlight for me was grace spinning into ireland. incredible imagary for this part of the world.

im fast learning that its never over till its over at all.

grace should tell you that mother nature dose what she wants to do.