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Slight Risk 16th April - High Plains


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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Today's risk would be a great way for the chase newbies to be intitated and eased in to the US storm chase lifestyle ... a classic High Plains Chase - where the flat terrain of the High Plains of NW TX/Panhandle up through the OK Panhandle into SW Kansas gives a great opportunity to experience these storms with help of wide and endless vistas and a generally very good grid system of farm roads and highways, sometimes set at mile grids!

    Chance of supercells firing along the dry line later ... main threat large hail and damaging winds, but also a 5% risk of a tornado esp with any discrete cells.

    Hard to pick an area to target, though I would go for Plainview- Lubbock corridor as this appears to be where best CAPE is modelled along with an apparent bulge in the dry line towards this area too on the GFS, WRF and RUC model output along with favourably strong 0-3km nad 0-1km shear vectors.

    post-1052-1239906189_thumb.png post-1052-1239906210_thumb.png post-1052-1239906200_thumb.png

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    1132 AM CDT THU APR 16 2009

    VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND

    SOUTHERN PLAINS...

    MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER

    UT/AZ...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INTO THE

    SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE

    RESULTED IN SOME MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE

    SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. 50S DEWPOINTS ARE NOW EVIDENT AS FAR

    NORTH AS THE TX PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OK...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD

    INTO WESTERN KS BY THIS EVENING. A RATHER STRONG DRYLINE IS LIKELY

    TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO WEST TX...WHICH

    WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER

    TODAY.

    ...NEB/KS/OK EARLY AFTERNOON...

    A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED THIS

    MORNING FROM WESTERN NORTH TX INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHEAST

    NEB. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION

    AND LIFT...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MUCAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE

    HAIL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT

    ANTICIPATED. REFER TO SWOMCD NUMBER 481 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

    ...EASTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON...

    SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS EASTERN CO ARE HELPING TO

    SLOWLY ADVECT MOISTURE INTO REGION. PRIMARY DRYLINE WILL LIKELY

    DEVELOP OVER FAR EASTERN CO...BUT BACKED WINDS NEAR SURFACE LOW MAY

    WRAP SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WESTWARD AND CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE

    INITIATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND COOL TEMPERATURES

    ALOFT WILL PROVIDE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER

    CELLS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM

    NEAR THE DRYLINE WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN

    ISOLATED TORNADO. THREAT SHOULD SPREAD INTO WESTERN KS DURING THE

    EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER DARK.

    ...OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHWEST TX...

    STRONG HEATING OVER EASTERN NM AND WEST TX WILL HELP INTENSIFY THE

    DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY

    SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR

    AGREEMENT OF STORMS BY 00Z FROM SOUTHEAST CO TO SOUTH OF AMA...WITH

    DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD ALONG DRYLINE DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST

    SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS ENTIRE AXIS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF LARGE HAIL

    AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOSE STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE MAY ALSO

    POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE

    UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR MCS BY 06Z AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD

    THE HILL COUNTRY.

    ..HART/GARNER.. 04/16/2009

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Early days yet dogs, it's 2.45pm their time, we haven't reached peak heating yet which will be in a few hours (5pm there time) ... but already we are seeing some discrete cells go up south of Amarillo - severe tstm warned cell just north of Plainview and something popping up to the SW:

    post-1052-1239911106_thumb.png

    Some nice clear air across west TX Panhandle with a cumulus field:

    post-1052-1239911511_thumb.png

    Dew points into the mid 50s and a backed SE flow, drier air W of the dryline over the border into NM with dews into the 20s:

    post-1052-1239911596_thumb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Gotta Say I am with Nick here, I absolutely Love this area of the Plains for Chasing Storms! Flat with views of up to 70 Miles and 1 Mile Grid roads, you cannot beat this area for Chasing Supercells. Although the Cows Stink to High Heaven in the Many Beef Farms! At least you can tell if the Storm has got Inflow Winds :):)

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    Posted
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.

    Cap Rock does it for me every time too. Saw my first tornado near there in 2000.

    Whilst SPC only give 5% tornado risk based on limited SB moisture. Based on the the obs I think this risk could be underestimated. Almost a bullseye with stacked shear in just one location as per map.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Tornado warning for that storm near Plainview ... Tulia in it's path! Remember this town was hit a few years back by a strong tornado:

    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

    TORNADO WARNING

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX

    323 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...

    CENTRAL SWISHER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

    * UNTIL 415 PM CDT

    * AT 322 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST

    DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF TULIA...

    MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

    * SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE TULIA.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME...TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES

    AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    LOL

    Moving NE @ 5mph - Anyone fancy Jogging along with that! Would be great to photograph, just set up about 5 miles in front of it, crack open a Can and shoot away!

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Yes, the perfect chase Paul.

    That supercell north of Plainview given a TVS in line with its warning:

    post-1052-1239915266_thumb.pngpost-1052-1239915280_thumb.png

    More popping up to the S and SW.

    post-1052-1239916256_thumb.pngpost-1052-1239916240_thumb.png

    Can feel a fillet steak meal washed down by a 32oz beer at the Big Texan will be required in the evening if we follow these north

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Jeff Gonzales livestreaming the storm N of Plainview through severe studios atm:

    http://www.severestudios.com/livechase

    ... has what looks like a funnel in view ... or at least some kind of spin up.

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    Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

    is that a funnel coming down

    edit.i see your above post Nick

    a live Tornado on live stream.............my first :D:D :D :D :D :D :D :D

    sorry I do get carried away with excitment

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    Posted
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.

    I'd actually want to be somewhere between Abiline and Lubbock now. RUC shows a build up of helicity values 0-1km 350 m2/s2 and 0-3km 500 m2/s2 stacked. This one should blow a big one off so long as it doesn't line out within the next couple of hrs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Yes, the SR Helicity values seem stronger further east looking at the hourly mesoscale analysis:

    post-1052-1239917138_thumb.pngpost-1052-1239917149_thumb.png

    The problem we have now in the Big Spring to Amarillo corridor is the cap has all but gone fairly early and cells are popping up all over the place and competing with each other - looks like it will merge into a linear MCS eventually, maybe best to head further SE.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    The livestreamers seem to be all following the Tulia storm which is still tornado warned.

    Meso earlier:

    post-1052-1239918643_thumb.png

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0484

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

    AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX SOUTH PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN.

    CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 155...

    VALID 162053Z - 162200Z

    THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 155

    CONTINUES.

    POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING FOR RELATIVELY DISCRETE AND POSSIBLY

    TORNADIC SUPERCELLS OVER SRN PORTIONS WW AREA...SWD TOP NEAR I-20

    ENE OF MAF. TORNADO WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THIS REGION...WHICH

    WOULD REPRESENT UPGRADE AND NEW WW NUMBER FOR THOSE OVERLAPPING

    COUNTIES ALREADY IN WW 155.

    SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATES SHARPENING PSEUDO WARM

    FRONTAL ZONE AND CONFLUENCE BAND FROM COKE COUNTY NWWD BETWEEN

    BPG-SNK...INTERSECTING DRYLINE OVER DAWSON COUNTY. THIS FEATURE

    SHOULD DRIFT NWD...AMIDST NEARLY UNCAPPED MLCAPE NEAR 2000

    J/KG...AND SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR DRYLINE TO RETREAT WWD SOME

    MORE. AIR MASS ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY

    LOWER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...LOWER LCL...AS WELL AS MORE BACKED/ELY

    SFC WINDS THAT YIELD STRONGER 0-1 KM SRH AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW.

    LBB VWP INDICATES EARLIER RELATIVE WEAKNESSES IN LOW LEVEL FLOW

    ABOVE BACKED SFC WINDS ARE WEAKENING AS TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENTS

    ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFT E AHEAD OF 4-CORNERS UPPER CYCLONE...A TREND

    THAT IS NOT YET MANIFEST AT JTN PROFILER FARTHER E. PRIND LOW-LEVEL

    AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN SLOWLY WITH TIME THROUGH

    REMAINDER AFTERNOON...AND THAT HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN LARGEST ALONG

    AND N OF WARM FRONT. THICKENING SHALLOW CONVECTION EVIDENT IN VIS

    IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TSTMS MAY DEVELOP S OF BOUNDARY AND MOVE

    NWD...ANY OF WHICH COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY UPON INTERACTING WITH

    MESOBETA SCALE FRONTAL ZONE.

    ..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2009

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    just playing catch up as we speak notice few warnings out.

    SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX

    508 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

    TXC107-153-189-303-162245-

    /O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-090416T2245Z/

    FLOYD TX-HALE TX-CROSBY TX-LUBBOCK TX-

    508 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR

    NORTHEASTERN LUBBOCK...NORTHWESTERN CROSBY...SOUTHEASTERN HALE AND

    SOUTHWESTERN FLOYD COUNTIES...

    AT 506 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR STRONGLY INDICATED A

    TORNADO...OR IMMINENT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT ALONG HIGHWAY 62 82

    BETWEEN IDALOU AND LORENZO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. VERY LARGE

    HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS IS LIKELY.

    SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PETERSBURG...

    LORENZO...IDALOU AND CONE.

    how many tornadoes have touched down so far tonight?

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    Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

    Cookie...there is one report...but then later there was a Tornado looking cloud on live stream....then I think another skinny one but not sure about the sec.....I dont know what Nick thinks of the first one....But sure looked like some sort of Twister

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    ok thanks dogs.

    their could be a few more yet

    TXC303-162300-

    /O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-090416T2300Z/

    LUBBOCK TX-

    531 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL

    LUBBOCK COUNTY...

    AT 530 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

    INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE

    MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

    RANSOM CANYON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. A TORNADO MAY BE IMMINENT.

    SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SLATON...RANSOM

    CANYON...DOWNTOWN LUBBOCK...LUBBOCK AND TEXAS TECH UNIV..

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Tornado warned storms still ongoing Texas, south plains and severe hail 4">

    http://www.weather.gov/view/national.php?prodtype=tornado

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    Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

    14 in the end

    2045 2 N KRESS SWISHER TX 3439 10175 TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF Z AND 16. (LUB)

    2345 2 WSW RALLS CROSBY TX 3367 10142 BRIEF TOUCHDOWN. (LUB)

    0153 NW BIG SPRING HOWARD TX 3225 10148 (MAF)

    0205 FAIRVIEW HOWARD TX 3236 10152 (MAF)

    0221 10 N SHALLOWATER HALE TX 3383 10199 OR APPROX 4S OF THE COMMUNITY OF COUNTY LINE (LUB)

    0305 4 SW GIRARD KENT TX 3333 10070 LOUD ROARING SOUND WAS HEARD FROM STORM SHELTER (LUB)

    0307 9 W GIRARD KENT TX 3336 10082 (LUB)

    0320 4 S IDALOU LUBBOCK TX 3360 10168 UTILITY POWER FLASHES WERE OBSERVED IN VICINITY OF TORNADO (LUB)

    0335 16 ESE SPUR DICKENS TX 3339 10060 (LUB)

    0352 12 SW GUTHRIE KING TX 3351 10047 UTILITY POWER FLASHES OBSERVED SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 82 (LUB)

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Tornado warning south of San Angelo currently ..

    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

    TORNADO WARNING

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

    154 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...

    SCHLEICHER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

    * UNTIL 230 AM CDT

    * AT 152 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTH OF

    ELDORADO...OR NEAR ELDORADO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

    * THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...

    THE INTERSECTION OF US-190 AND RANCH ROAD 2084 BY 225 AM CDT...

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

    WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

    AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

    INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

    COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

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