Model Outlook For Chase Team 1

[dogs32]

calm down a bit

i can never calm down Stu with natures Supercells....the excitment is to great.....Just watch Reed Timmer explode with excitement....on TV

Edited April 22, 2009 by dogs32

[Ross B]

i can never calm down Stu with natures Supercells....the excitment is to great.....Just watch Reed Timmer explode with excitement....on TV

lol yeah. 4:40 onwards http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgG-bAkJtRY...feature=related

[dogs32]

lol yeah. 4:40 onwards http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgG-bAkJtRY...feature=related

IM laughing my a### off here at that Ross....he makes me laugh....excellent first class..

how hes shouting at the wind screen

hes having a nervous breakdown

Not FREEDOM from Braveheart.

But SUCCSESS is the new word out

Edited April 22, 2009 by dogs32

[dogs32]

I dont know if this is correct but the CAPE for Tuseday and Precipertation look good to me

chart 132 looks fantastic for CAPE....Im still learning so correct me if Im wrong but it might be turning around for Mon or Tues

Edited April 22, 2009 by dogs32

[Paul Sherman]

Make Sure you pack your Thermals and Wooly Jumpers For Wednesday! 6c

Never Seen It That Cold - Bloody hate the Gfs - Crap Crap Model

**Pat As I said on the Phone after Monday it all looks too far South and Into the Hill Country or Swamps, So might just be Thunderstorms after Monday with Little Tornado Chance if the GFS Verifies (Which I hope is Very Very Wrong)

Any praying Smilies!

Paul S

*As Nathan Said in the 4-8 Day Thread the Temps and Moisture return along with a Trough from the West for the Weekend of 2-3rd May but that is all out in La La Land at present*

[John Hanrahan]

Lets hope things change.

Edited April 22, 2009 by Christ I don't know

[Paul Sherman]

NWS AMARILLO OFFICE

THEN THE MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING GREATLY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. GFS MOST

AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING COLD FRONT THRU WHILE OTHER MODELS HOLD IT UP

A BIT. REFER TO PREEPD FOR MORE INFO. DECIDED TO SPLIT DIFFERENCE FOR

SUN AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN HEDGE A BIT MORE TOWARDS ECMWF FOR EARLY

TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE

MODELS ARE TENDING TO PAINT MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...

AND THIS IS SEEN BY MEXMOS VALUES. THEREFORE...TRENDED IN THAT

DIRECTION AS WELL...WITH SLGT CHC VALUES MOST AREAS FROM SUNDAY

THROUGH THE END OF THE 7 DAY PCKG DUE TO PASSING SHORTWAVE TROFS

EJECTING FROM WRN US LONGWAVE TROF.

If it's Any Consolation John SPC Going against GFS Completely in most of their Regional Pops Discussions I have read tonight, most are trending towards the ECMWF At this stage

Paul S

[Nick F]

It looks like, looking at 12z GFS, that you may have thunderstorm opportunities over Oklahoma on Monday as the front moves S and E (could be a severe potential) and then Tuesday and Wednesday storm risks over central/Sern Texas as the front becomes slow moving across the Sern US and develops waves along it . All is not lost, though uncertain what the potential maybe for severe weather and tornadoes after Monday - which maybe limited.

EDIT: And of course ECM looks a bit better ... being less progressive in pushing the gulf moisture back towards the south.

[John Hanrahan]

If it's Any Consolation John SPC Going against GFS Completely in most of their Regional Pops Discussions I have read tonight, most are trending towards the ECMWF At this stage

Paul S

Thanks Paul. No bother. i think after several edits only you and Nick saw my little outburst. hehe. Early days yet.

[Paul Sherman]

John

Is there any way you can get your Laptop to work when we are having a Drink at the Hotel on Saturday Night. I have a feeling we might be watching quite an Outbreak of Possibly Strong Tornadoes Saturday across Kansas, In Fact it is looking like a dual Threat with Dryline and Triple Point Supercells which could be Cyclic and Produce Tornado after Tornado. Oh for it to have been 2 days later

[John Hanrahan]

No probs Paul. There will be wifi in the hotel. I'll have a vodafone mobile data card aswell of were really stuck.

I staying Mr positive. I filmed a bloddy small tornado in east Cork two weeks ago for god sake (your heads up). I have no doubt that you'll get us on the action of the day whatever that may be as usual!

John

Is there any way you can get your Laptop to work when we are having a Drink at the Hotel on Saturday Night. I have a feeling we might be watching quite an Outbreak of Possibly Strong Tornadoes Saturday across Kansas, In Fact it is looking like a dual Threat with Dryline and Triple Point Supercells which could be Cyclic and Produce Tornado after Tornado. Oh for it to have been 2 days later

[Nick F]

Stormtrack certainly seem to be bigging-up NW OK - SW KS area on Saturday for supercells to form near the dryline triple point. Woodward to Liberal area maybe. We'll be crying into our beers come Saturday evening ... lol.

[dogs32]

it would of been easier if it was a few days ago,but not 24 hrs before we get there...So close but so far

What a start it would of been to see Supercells not long after landing

Edited April 22, 2009 by dogs32

[Tom Lynch]

Dont want to drag it off topic............but dont forget that great Weather Radio you have! LOL

Paul S

Paul

I have packed both storm alert radios. I have also packed a variety of repair kits which I have found useful over the years. I also have Storm Lab Pro and Weathertap , just to add to GRLEVEL 3 and Baron. oh and my GPS and my lightning detector.

Tom

[John Hanrahan]

Slightly off topic, but I guess I'm probably the only one with absolutely no packing done what so ever. I think Ian might be in the same boat. I'd better go up stairs and pack.

Nick, to avoid crying into our beers, we will probably have to drink more than we planned.

[Paul Sherman]

it would of been easier if it was a few days ago,but not 24 hrs before we get there...So close but so far

What a start it would of been to see Supercells not long after landing

The thing that makes it harder for me and I am sure Tom and Nick will agree, Is that area of Kansas is absolutely Incredible for Storm Chasing, Take the 22nd/23rd May last year, both in that General Area and I am just totally gutted we will miss out on this, If it was in Tennessee or Alabama I would not have given 2 Hoots about Saturday! Lets just hope the Re-Load on the 2nd/3rd May is in this general Area.

Paul S

[dogs32]

I was thinking it could slow down...Its only Wednesday today

Or even Stall..Then its party time at the HOTEL

Well Im hoping.....Probably wont but its Possible.....

Edited April 22, 2009 by dogs32

[Tom Lynch]

The thing that makes it harder for me and I am sure Tom and Nick will agree, Is that area of Kansas is absolutely Incredible for Storm Chasing, Take the 22nd/23rd May last year, both in that General Area and I am just totally gutted we will miss out on this, If it was in Tennessee or Alabama I would not have given 2 Hoots about Saturday! Lets just hope the Re-Load on the 2nd/3rd May is in this general Area.

Paul S

I do agree about Kansas, but still holding out for a chance on Monday I have looked at one or two other sites which have given a little bit of hope and as stated it is only Wednesday. So who's round is it.

Tom

[Paul Sherman]

18z Rolling Out and Thankfully Falling into line with the ECMWF

A Much Better Run coming Up here.

Monday looks Very Very Good for S Central Oklahoma and N Central Texas

Sherman Supercell ??? :lol: :lol:

Will post some Charts In a Little While But does not look like GFS Is featuring the Surging Cold Front now and Heat builds up with decent Moisture, Also what looks like another Shortwave coming off the Trough Parked out West for Wednesday!

Paul S

[dogs32]

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

I dont think Ski 's are going to be needed.....MONDAY/TUES/WED/and maybe THURSDAY lots of potential next week

As Reed said..SUCCSESS

im not sure im going to sleep tonight with these charts....A Mother of a trough also trying to come in later in the week...

John its going to be a good week mate

Edited April 22, 2009 by dogs32

[kold weather]

Does look a lot better on the 18z compared to the 12z which looked very poor in terms of temp values it was progging, just weren't any mositure or heat there to use on that run. As others have said the 12z ECM is much better and keeps those factors in place to a far greater extent in the plains region.

[John Hanrahan]

Fab. :lol: :lol:

Docu on SKY 3 right on OK city tornado of 1999. Havn't seen this doc before

If your not going to sleep pat that will kill an hour

Actually think its that ultimate tornado thingi. Was only ok if i remember. Worth a watch though.

Edited April 22, 2009 by Christ I don't know

[dogs32]

Fab. :lol: :lol:

Docu on SKY 3 right on OK city tornado of 1999. Havn't seen this doc before

If your not going to sleep pat that will kill an hour

im so happy mate...........im not going to look at any other charts until we fly now just in case

[John Hanrahan]

im so happy mate...........im not going to look at any other charts until we fly now :lol: just in case

LOL. Might not be a bad idea mate. I reckon being a fly on the wall in your gaff at the moment would be interesting. :lol:

[dogs32]

LOL. Might not be a bad idea mate. I reckon being a fly on the wall in your gaff at the moment would be interesting. :lol:

im fully clothed :lol:

now im going into a deep super cell sleep..

rest assured