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Model Outlook For Chase Team 1

Paul Sherman

By Paul Sherman
in Storm Chase USA

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Author
Posted

post-24-1240525700_thumb.png

post-24-1240525717_thumb.png

Fancy Donating some Jesus Creepers To Your Favourite Muddy Kansas Dirt Track Ian ??

Thats Wednesday Sorted :yahoo:

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

Possible lull Friday Paul..

At least we will have plenty of golf balls to play with from the storms :yahoo:

Edited by dogs32
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ian cameron Rookie

ian cameron

Posted
  • Location: south east London
  • Location: south east London
Posted

well the charts do look good am finally getting round to gearing myself up for the trip this is my first real look at the charts chase days for most of the week should be cool now just show me those long roads with nothing on them with 50 mile vistas with super cells on them:D :D

post-24-1240525700_thumb.png

post-24-1240525717_thumb.png

Fancy Donating some Jesus Creepers To Your Favourite Muddy Kansas Dirt Track Ian ??

Thats Wednesday Sorted :yahoo:

Paul if it means we get that sort of weather where theres a tornado on the ground infront and behind us with lightning landing all around us I will gladly donate me jesus creepers :o :o

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Author
Posted

Some Interesting Charts for our 1st Nights Stay!

GFS Now Showing some Precip breaking out to our West along the I20 Coridoor which could put on a Light Show for Overnight and Practise for Lightning Photography.

Could be quite a Rocky Landing for Danny Though! :yahoo:

post-24-1240526125_thumb.png

post-24-1240526150_thumb.png - 6pm

post-24-1240526169_thumb.png - 9pm

Paul S

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Gorky Contributor

Gorky

Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
Posted (edited)

If the GFS is to be believed, there trough is going to stick around right through to the Thursday when Tour 1 heads back to Dallas. There are areas of 3000+ cape every day in the Tx,OK,KS corridor and whilst a few of these days have very strong caps in place, the possibilty of at least a slight risk every chase day is a possibility. The GFS doesn't seem to show the poorer upper level winds anymore like it has been for a few days.

The ECMWF keeps the trough out west through to the end of it's run at T240 (Monday 4th) and in fact, the trough seems better oriented and in a better position towards the end of it's run. Given that both models are now matching each other and showing consistency for a couple of runs, it's definately looking like things are in place for a memorable week or two...

Here are some ECMWF charts to show how stubborn that Western Troughing is....

T72

post-1731-1240559515_thumb.png

T120

post-1731-1240559525_thumb.png

T168

post-1731-1240559537_thumb.png

T240

post-1731-1240559548_thumb.png

Also, here is the Day 3 outlook for Sunday. 30% hatched already for W Tx/OK.

post-1731-1240559884_thumb.png

Edited by Gorky
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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

Nice :D

I hope this doesnt coincide with us landing...With any storms around we could be looking at delays :doh:

But I take it these will kick off later in the day...Hope

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Author
Posted

I am Speechless at these Charts :doh:

Mick Me, Tammy and Pat land at 225pm and John, Ian and Tom land at 340pm, Danny then lands some time after 10pm

Paul S

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Author
Posted
cheers mate.

have a good flight, looks like you may get some action from the start :doh:

Thanks Mick

Yes am really looking forward to this, Had a Big Feeling it would be an Late April and Early May Active Period this time around, sometimes these things flip flop around, Hopefully we can get an active period all the way through until June and then everyone will be happy. One thing we will be and that is completely Knackered come next weekend (I Hope) Lots of Vanilla Coffee and Red Bull!!!

Paul S

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Posted
Posted
This looks bloomin fantastic :) What a great way to start a storm chase!! Can't wait to get going!

Packing - done, Husband organised - done, work finished - nearly done! Just need to get to Heathrow and get on the plane - see you all there :D

Tammy

:doh: Hardest work done then!

Have a great time and enjoy. That goes for everyone. The first week (at least) looks better than could have been hoped for at this stage!

Looking forward to watching things unfold over here.

Here's to a few stalling cold fronts for the UK for this summer after you get back.

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Author
Posted

post-24-1240569072_thumb.png

Hehehehe

Day 3 which Includes our Overnight Stay and Probable MCS To Trundle through the DFW Area

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...

ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC

LIFT NORTH OF WARM FRONT OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL PLAINS. AN AXIS

OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL EXIST IN

WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AND EAST OF DRYLINE. PLUME OF STEEP

MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT EAST AND CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF

MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM WRN KS...WRN OK AND WRN TX AS LOW CLOUDS

MIX OUT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. THE WARM SECTOR WILL INITIALLY

BE CAPPED. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG CONVERGENT

DRYLINE AS IT MIXES EAST AND AS THE CAP WEAKENS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND 0-1 KM HODOGRAPH

SIZE WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE

EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE INITIAL

PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR

MORE MCSS OVERNIGHT WITH THREAT TRANSITIONING TO ISOLATED DAMAGING

WIND AND HAIL.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And then the Chase Day Proper from Monday 27th for Tour 1 - From the SPC :(

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0355 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LONG RANGE MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF...UKMET...GFS AND MREF ARE IN

REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN

OVER THE CONUS THROUGH DAY 6. CONSENSUS IS THAT CUTOFF LOW WILL

EVOLVE OVER WRN STATES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO EJECT

THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY MONDAY.

DAY 4...CONSENSUS IS THAT COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO GREAT

LAKES...MID MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE

TROUGH. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY

INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY MONDAY. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY

CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY ALONG SRN END OF FRONT OR MCS ACROSS A PART

OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE INFLUX OF HIGHER

THETA-E AIR WILL BE GREATER. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IMPOSED BY

LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A

THREAT AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND

MS VALLEY REGION MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A RISK AREA IN LATER

OUTLOOKS.

DAY5-7...MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL

PLAINS AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW

OVER THE WRN STATES. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY EXIST

OVER THE PLAINS DURING OF THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE MORE

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREATS WILL BE MODULATED IN PART BY A SERIES OF

IMPULSES THAT WILL LIKELY EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THIS

PERIOD. THESE FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. WILL REFRAIN FROM

DELINEATING A THREAT AREA THIS OUTLOOK DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY

REGARDING WHAT DAYS WILL POSE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREATS.

ONE OR MORE RISK AREAS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED...HOWEVER...IN FUTURE

UPDATES.

Paul Sherman

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MAF Experienced

MAF

Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
Posted

will be keeping an eye on the SPC for monday then Paul.

i have noticed the short range predictions by the SPC turn out to be quite accurate :(

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

jusy over 24 hrs I cant beleive it :( and such a lovely setup for us....The SPC are really good at there job I have noticed over this last month also...

Manic now here..Trying to do packing without forgetting anything..

yes even into next week looks good

Edited by dogs32
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Could be getting some lightning photography practice in on your first night then!

The set-up next week remains pretty much static, i.e. a lee low over the High Plains bringing moisture N and a large upper long-wave trough sat over Wern half of the US with shortwaves ejecting NE across the Plains bringing waves of storms ... looking good. Just could do with stronger upper winds where the storm potential is over Sern and central Plains to increase severe threat from SLIGHTs

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

25hrs :(

Paul what time will you be arriving at the Hotel?

and Ian

We are going to be truly shattered with all the latest forecast chases for the week ahead..

I think theres going to be so much lightning opportunities Nick....shame we couldnt have had you out there...

Then we would of had two great weather forceasters...

Im hoping for a Tornado outbreak ...But Im not greedy :(

Edited by dogs32
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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted (edited)

I am excited and I am not going.

Looking forward to the photo's and reports, hope you all have a great chase

Edited by SteveB
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Tom Lynch Aficionado

Tom Lynch

Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK
Posted

I have to things are looking good NCAR are giving promising forecasts too I must repeat the best set up I have arrived into. I think tour 1 are going to have a treat. :D

Tom

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

quiet on here tonight..calm before the Storm..

I don't think I'm going to make the 23.00 gfs charts tonight....Im sure they wont change and go down hill

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John Hanrahan Newbie

John Hanrahan

Posted
  • Location: Midleton, Cork, Ireland
  • Location: Midleton, Cork, Ireland
Posted (edited)
quiet on here tonight..calm before the Storm..

I don't think I'm going to make the 23.00 gfs charts tonight....Im sure they wont change and go down hill

Still trying to bloody pack and iron etc. Only as far as T shirts. Price you pay for working 14 hr days week before hols. Will be knackered tomorrow

Pat did you say youd be at the hotel for 6?

Edited by Christ I don't know
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Tom Lynch Aficionado

Tom Lynch

Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK
Posted
quiet on here tonight..calm before the Storm..

I don't think I'm going to make the 23.00 gfs charts tonight....Im sure they wont change and go down hill

Wel i guess they are all doing family things. Progs still looking good NCAR show things happenig through SATURDAY but been chasing long enough to know better. Still I think we are all in for a treat.

Tom

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

John Im exhausted...Ive ran around all day packing,running around like a headless chicken...

I have only one person to teach tomorrow then Im free :bomb:

only 15hrs to go now for me...yours must be sooner from Ireland

Tom it looks rather excellent weeearar :shok:

Plenty of lightning

Edited by dogs32
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John Hanrahan Newbie

John Hanrahan

Posted
  • Location: Midleton, Cork, Ireland
  • Location: Midleton, Cork, Ireland
Posted (edited)
I must repeat the best set up I have arrived into. I think tour 1 are going to have a treat. :bomb:

That coming from a seasoned chaser like yourself Tom, I must admit is making me 10 times more excited, regardless of tiredness.!

Yeah Pat. Will be at airport for 12:00 i Cork. Still have about 2 hours packing and prep to do. cant wait though

Edited by Christ I don't know
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