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Model Outlook For Chase Team 1


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

***** Hell

...SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS...

A WELL-DEFINED 75 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD

ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY OUT OF THE BASE OF AN

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS WILL CREATE

A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. AT

LOW-LEVELS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE

ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD 45 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDING NNEWD

ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL JETS WILL

BECOME JUXTAPOSED AS THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE MAIN

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE

FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS

PARTS OF WRN OK...CNTRL AND ERN KS...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WCNTRL

TX.

THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS

WITH HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF

THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EWD AWAY FROM

THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG

DESTABILIZATION FROM CNTRL KS SWD ACROSS WRN OK...THE ERN TX

PANHANDLE INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF WCNTRL TX. MODEL FORECASTS

ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WEAKENING THE CAP BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON

INITIATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE

INSTABILITY AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAMKF AT 21Z ACROSS

THE MODERATE RISK AREA SHOW DEEP UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES

WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE

MODERATE RISK AREA. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM

SECTOR AIDED BY THE MID-LEVEL JET SUNDAY AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 40 TO

55 KT WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ADEQUATE

DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. CURVED HODOGRAPHS

ALONG WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME STRONG TORNADOES WILL OCCUR

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IF THE CONVECTION ONGOING

SUNDAY MORNING DOES INDEED MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF

INSTABILITY...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION...THEN

A TORNADO OUTBREAK MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SUNDAY ALSO SUGGEST THE STORMS SHOULD BE

EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCERS. SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

VERY LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY FROM SCNTRL KS SWD ACROSS THE ERN TX

PANHANDLE...WRN OK INTO WCNTRL TX. LARGE HAIL COVERAGE SHOULD BE

GREATEST FROM ECNTRL KS ACROSS WRN OK WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE

ACROSS WCNTRL TX WHERE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS

GREAT DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY

SUPERCELLS AND LINE-SEGMENTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY

ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW

INCREASES AND LINE-SEGMENTS APPEAR MORE LIKELY.

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

just been reading that Paul.

looks like you lot will need to be careful out there

where are you going to stay for your first base Paul?

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
just been reading that Paul.

looks like you lot will need to be careful out there

where are you going to stay for your first base Paul?

Mick

At the Moment we are Landing, Dumping the Bags and Going for the Moderate Risk and Strong Tornadoes if the Southern End is close enough within (2) hours of DFW - Say Witchita Falls area. It will be a rude awakening to the newbies but it is not often you get the words "Tornado Outbreak" in the text. Just waiting on wether Danny can get a cab from the Airport to the Hotel and we are Set for a Chase on Travel Day. There could be some Strong Tornadoes to be had tomorrow and I am not going to miss this opportunity.

Paul S

hi its Pat here....dogs32....im so excited the forecast tomorrow is unbelieble....massive hail

wowoooeeeeeeeee :D

this is kick arse

Tornado outbreak predicted

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Okay have had Confirmation from Danny and we are Set for a Land and Chase straight into the Action (Thnx Danny)

So tomorrow when the later BA Flight lands we are going to head North or North West and try to get on a Tornadic Supercell Straight away using GRLevel3, We will NOT Have Barons as we need Monday Morning to activate this, we will also attempt to Live Stream tomorrow Night for this Event.

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.

Hey so what if you blokes have been travelling for 20hours, Sleep whats that !!! looks like you better get booked in then get out LOL good luck chaps

Edited by stevestorms
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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

well here is watch #183

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 183

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

340 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS

PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA

PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS PAN HANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF

CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TOPEKA KANSAS. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

a good start

courtesy NOAA

full text here http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0183.html

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

update to meoscale discussion

radar/satellite indicate the stalled front has begun a very slow

retreat nwd through the tx panhandle and northwest ok while the

dryline was mixing ewd to armstrong to crosby counties in tx.

towering cu was bubbling at the intersection of the two over

southwest gray county tx...in the free warm sector over wcentral ok

and northeast along the front.

larger scale ascent will improve after 22z in wake of the earlier

disturbance moving into eastern ks per water vapor imagery. this

will act to deepen the dryline/frontal circulation and initiation

still looks to be across the eastern tx panhandle...northeast along

the front into west-central/northwest ok in an hour or two /aside

from activity developing in cntrl/ern ks/. modifying the 20z norman

sounding for a 88/58 air parcel suggests very little cap and mlcapes

of over 2000 j/kg. corridor from jericho-turkey tx northeast across

erick...elk city...clinton...watonga and enid north to just nw of

the front will have the highest severe probabilities through early

evening.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

What..!!! No Barons on what could become... dare i say HIGH risk..!!

Just hope that overnight storms move away quickly Sunday

morning to allow destabilization and convection to initiate. Great shear

profiles tomorrow and CAPE around 3000 J/kg and lifted index around -9.

Here's the Skew-T for Woodward, Oklahoma @ 6pm Sunday US time.

Hodograph profiles looking good too.. An EF5 on the 1st chase day?

Heading NW at the moment seems a wise choice although it will be one

heck of a drive straight after a 10hr flight..!!!

Edited by NL
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Posted
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.

Grabbed this image tonight using GRlevel3 supercell and poss Tornado 23.15 BST Kansaspost-110-1240702176_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
link not working for me Ross :good:

Strange, it works for me still. It is a bit slow though, lots of people are viewing the cams!

Watch the Verne Carlson stream on there if you can, possible live streaming funnel/nado.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Go here if your stuck, many live feeds here too.

http://severestudios.com/livechase

Jeffery Gonzales on lowering from wall cloud possible nado..!!

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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
Go here if your stuck, many live feeds here too.

http://severestudios.com/livechase

Jeffery Gonzales on lowering from wall cloud possible nado..!!

I'm spoiled for choice of which cam to watch!

Edit: He is on the same call as Verne Carlson.

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
Strange, it works for me still. It is a bit slow though, lots of people are viewing the cams! Watch the Verne Carlson stream on there if you can, possible live streaming funnel/nado.
Go here if your stuck, many live feeds here too. http://severestudios.com/livechase Jeffery Gonzales on lowering from wall cloud possible nado..!!

cheers guys, unfortunately its not a technical issue. i am in work tonight and my work PC internet gateway wont allow access to the sites. :D:good:

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

#1

2335 6 W LINWOOD LEAVENWORTH KS 3900 9515 JUST S OF I-70, 1 N OF K-32 (EAX)

latest update

TORNADO THREAT WILL RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY DURING IN NEXT 2-3

HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM WRN OK TOWARD S-CENTRAL KS. CONTINUE WW.

ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY BE TACKED ONTO SRN FRINGES OF WW OVER

PORTIONS SWRN/CENTRAL OK. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL ZONE

DESCRIBED BELOW TO LIFT NWD AND EXPAND WARM SECTOR OVER MORE OF NERN

PANHANDLE...NWRN OK AND SRN KS...SVR POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE OVER NRN

PORTIONS WW AFTER 00Z AS WELL. VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL THREAT WILL

CONTINUE WITH SUPERCELLS FROM EXTREME ERN TX PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS

ERN KS. HAIL TO 2.75 INCH DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH STORM IN

CUSTER COUNTY OK AT 2315Z...AND EVEN LARGER HAIL IS POSSIBLE OVER

THIS REGION AS SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION INCREASES.

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

3 now

2335 6 W LINWOOD LEAVENWORTH KS 3900 9515 JUST S OF I-70, 1 N OF K-32 (EAX)

2350 W BONNER SPRINGS WYANDOTTE KS 3908 9488 TORNADO STILL BEING REPORTED ON THE GROUND, W OF BONNER SPRINGS (EAX)

2358 4 NNW LINWOOD LEAVENWORTH KS 3905 9506 REPORTS OF DESTRUCTION TO BARNS, CARS UPSIDE DOWN, AND SOME DAMAGE TO HOMES. LOCATION NEAR 206TH STREET AND I-70. (EAX)

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

Tornado watch #186

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 186

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1040 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS

NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1040 PM

UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

CHANUTE KANSAS TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALVA OKLAHOMA. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

Courtesy NOAA

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Posted
  • Location: Midleton, Cork, Ireland
  • Location: Midleton, Cork, Ireland

Ian, Tom and I are say here having breakfast in Heathrow T5. Paul S and Pat are at T3. Many thanks to Nick for dropping us to the airport.

Steve Storms, Northern Monkey says hi!

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Posted
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
Ian, Tom and I are say here having breakfast in Heathrow T5. Paul S and Pat are at T3. Many thanks to Nick for dropping us to the airport.

Steve Storms, Northern Monkey says hi!

Hi all dont forget to take plenty of Bananas for the Northern Monkey :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Hi all dont forget to take plenty of Bananas for the Northern Monkey :-)

Now now Steve , You will out here in a bit . Hope decent weather lasts.

Tom

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