May Cet

[mountain shadow]

A bit late, forgot there were 30 days in April.....

12.9

[phil nw.]

A late 12.7C please.

[J10]

12.3

A 10pt penalty for me. <_<

[damianslaw]

Compared to many recent months, people seem very bullish in there predictions of an appreciably above average CET this month - just an observation...

[Iceberg]

Very very late but a 14.2

[Optimus Prime]

Been busy so very late.

12.2c

[damianslaw]

Anyone know where we are with the CET so far this month, I suspect a little above average perhaps..

[Thundery wintry showers]

Philip Eden has his version on 11.5C, which is 1.7C above the 1971-2000 average for the period 1-3 May.

I think after the homogeneous warmth of March and April, and no notable northerly outbreaks on the horizon, people are quite justified in being bullish about high temperature predictions. It is the safe bet- but of course if we did get a potent northerly midmonth then we'd potentially be seeing a lot of egg on faces (including mine!)

[Kentish Man]

There are a lot of warm predictions this month with only a few die hard coldies predicting 11.0C or lower :winky:

Anyway Hadley is on 11.1C today (May 1 - 4 )

[Scorcher]

Despite some people seeming to believe this has been a cold start to May, the statistics prove it has been a rather warm one. This is likely to be due to high minima more than any notable day time warmth. There has been heavy cloud cover overnight in many areas- in fact the temperature hardly dropped at all in these parts last night and many places remained in double figures. This could again be the case tonight and tomorrow night. I think this is evidence of the fact that those who estimated a high CET for this month are justified, for the moment at least. As May progresses, cold spells that could dent the CET are obviously going to be less likely although not impossible.

[GRHinPorts]

If the latest ECM and GFS T168 forecasts were to verify we could be in for a bit of cold spell which might bring down the CET somewhat.

[damianslaw]

Expecting the CET to either remain static or drop in the coming days, maxima look average at best possibly going below next week in the CET zone if the progged cloudy wet easterly verifies, all will depend on the nightime minima which still look like being above average for the forseeable future with no real clear skies for southern and central spots, although Scotland and N Ireland will continue to see some lower than normal minima, this month could shape up to be quite different CET wise between england and wales and northern ireland and scotland, I suspect Scotland and N Ireland are recording a below average CET so far and this trend looks like continuing...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Didn't enter this month as been otherwise engaged. However, I think far too many have gone too high.

BFTP

[Methuselah]

Didn't enter this month as been otherwise engaged. However, I think far too many have gone too high.

BFTP

I was making up for my April prediction...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I was making up for my April prediction...

I was miles off too :wub: But May looks like being a different animal doesn't it?

BFTP

[Methuselah]

I was miles off too :wub: But May looks like being a different animal doesn't it?

BFTP

So far, yes. I don't like cool weather once winter's over.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Didn't enter this month as been otherwise engaged. However, I think far too many have gone too high.

BFTP

I didn't

[Methuselah]

Didn't you go for -1?

[reef]

Hadley is on 11.2C to the 11th. The last few days have all been rather average for the first half of May, recording figures in the 10s.

The next few days look much the same, so a value close to the mean by mid-month looks likely.

[chionomaniac]

Hadley CET currently at 11.2ºC.

With the next few days looking coolish I wouldn't be surprised to see it dip below 11ºC. It will need a warm final third for all those warmer than average punts to come good. There are only 2 guesses below 10.7ºC!!! Even Tamara may be getting a little excited!

Edit same time posting as reef!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Hadley CET currently at 11.2ºC.

With the next few days looking coolish I wouldn't be surprised to see it dip below 11ºC. It will need a warm final third for all those warmer than average punts to come good. There are only 2 guesses below 10.7ºC!!! Even Tamara may be getting a little excited!

Edit same time posting as reef!

lol!

As much as I am a true coldie, I do like to enjoy the summer and hope for some pleasant warm weather, and also some heat at least is a worthwhile trade-off to trigger some good storms. Which is easily the best part of summer weather for me.

So whilst a cooler May is fine, some seasonal warmth would be nice, as long as it goes AWOL quickly enough come October!

[Kentish Man]

Hadley is back on 11.1C today (May 1 - 12). The signs that it might be the coolest Spring month in 2009 relative to monthly mean continue.

[Snowyowl9]

11.0c to the 13th.

The last only average or just very slightly below was 2005 at 11.2c

Otherwise we have to go back to the last well below average of 1996 which was just 9.1c the coldest may since 1902. B)

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

High pressure solutions all the way - starting off with the core slightly to the west, but moving south and east over time.

13.0C please.

Long range forecasting still not brilliant... B)

My guess is looking way out. Most people including me need a warm last week of may to get any where near!

[damianslaw]

Today is likely to see a drop in CET values, provided there is no late burst of warm sunshine this evening, in the northern CET zone so to speak maxes are struggling to get to double figures, what will prevent it dropping appreciably is the cloudy mild evening we are about to get... In fact, maxes this month so far have been quite poor, it is the warm minima due to cloud cover that has kept the CET as high as it currently is - this isn't so for Scotland where low minima have been consistent for much of the month.

I think the final CET for May will be a bit above average perhaps up to 1 degree above being not a bad guess particularly if we see high pressure come back on the scene - which will do wonders for maxes but ironically may well result in some below minima especially if we see heights continue to remain strong to the north ensuring rapid cooling at night.