May Cet

Iceberg · May 30, 2009

It stayed at 11.3 yesterday which I found very surprising.
Last night the temperature in the CET stations fell to between 10C at lowest at 12C. With the temp going up to 20 even 24C (again today as well), I would have thought a bigger increase.
Maybe upto 11.5 by tomorrow, maybe 12C by the end of the month.

Hadley is currenlt on 11.9 upto today and Manley on 11.8 upto but not including yesterday.

So a 12C or even 12.1 looks likely for the month.

**Thundery wintry showers** · May 30, 2009

Yep, so a bit like May 2003 really, average temperatures up until the last week then warm, resulting in an outturn just above 12C.

Also like in May 2003, I think coastal regions of north-east England have again "quietly" come out with somewhat above-average temperatures owing to a lack of anything significantly below the average. The average maximum for Cleadon for 1-29 May is running at 15.6C and the minimum is running at 8.1C- both 1-2C higher than the respective long-term normals.

Timmead · May 30, 2009

I definitely think yesterday's CET max of 24.0 deserves an honourable mention; its the highest since last July.

Also, it was only bettered once last May, supposedly remembered for its heat.

2.6k · May 31, 2009

A Provisional 12.0C up to the 30th. Will it be corrected up or down?

Roger J Smith · May 31, 2009

Finally, a month with warmth at the sensible end.

reef · June 1, 2009

Its looking like 12.0C or 12.1C will be the final number. Hadley has done the quality control for all but one day (26th). The original value there was 12.5C, meaning the month would end up as 12.1C.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2009

Stargazer · June 1, 2009

If I'm reading their table correctly - it looks like they've confirmed 12.5 for May 26, giving a CET for the month of 12.14, or 12.1 rounded down. May be worth waiting a while in case anything else changes.

[Edit - just refreshed my browser and the 26th is still shown as uncorrected, so we'll have to wait a little longer...]

GRHinPorts · June 1, 2009

Its looking like 12.0C or 12.1C will be the final number. Hadley has done the quality control for all but one day (26th). The original value there was 12.5C, meaning the month would end up as 12.1C.
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2009

I shall feel very smug if it is 12.1 given this was only my second go at a CET guess B)

Timmead · June 1, 2009

No need to boast

The thing about this "competition" is that no one really has an advantage; the forecasters can be wide off the mark whilst novices get lucky.

GRHinPorts · June 3, 2009

No need to boast

I'll try...Pretty sure its just beginners luck.

Anyway by my reckoning if the May CET figure is 12.1 that will mean the running total for this year is now 36.2.

Looking back over the previous 13 years (back to and including 1997) this would make 2009 the 3rd coldest start to the year in this period. Only 2001 and 2006 were colder by this point.

By comparison against a 1997-2009 average 2009 is at -2.2 behind the average

By comparison with the 1971-2000 averages 2009 is at 2.1 ahead of the average.

Its worth noting that both 2007 and 2008 were miles ahead of 2009 at this point in terms of warmth. 2008 was ahead of the 71-00 averages by 5.3 and 2007 by a mind boggling 9.0.

All this leads me to believe that 2009 still has some anomolous warmth to come in the remaining months to "average things out". Hopefully this will be in the summer months.

Roger J Smith · June 3, 2009

Well, I went over to look and as of 1700 GMT the estimate was -37,684 ... which is a bit colder than 1879.

I wonder if they will round it up or down? :lol:

Stargazer · June 4, 2009

Just looked at the Hadley figures and it looks like they've finished making corrections now. June 26 is confirmed at 12.3, giving a final CET average for May of 12.1 (rounded up from 12.06).

June 4, 2009

May CET has been confirmed at 12.1 on the Hadley CET Series: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

Don · June 4, 2009

3rd warmer than average month in a row then, with June likely to follow suite. A very warm Spring overall and has felt rather similar to Spring 2003.

**Thundery wintry showers** · June 4, 2009

Just looked at the Hadley figures and it looks like they've finished making corrections now. June 26 is confirmed at 12.3, giving a final CET average for May of 12.1 (rounded up from 12.06).

Anyone got a time machine handy?

reef · June 4, 2009

3rd warmer than average month in a row then, with June likely to follow suite. A very warm Spring overall and has felt rather similar to Spring 2003.

It has indeed been a very warm spring - the 11th warmest on record in fact. 2003 (9.73C) was just 0.03C warmer than 2009.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt

When you look at which years are in the top 20, you very quickly realise why people have generally unrealistic expectations on what 'average' spring weather is like. In the top 20, 9 entries are all from the last 20 years:

1990, 1992, 1997, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2007, 2009

Don · June 4, 2009

It has indeed been a very warm spring - the 11th warmest on record in fact. 2003 (9.73C) was just 0.03C warmer than 2009.
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt
When you look at which years are in the top 20, you very quickly realise why people have generally unrealistic expectations on what 'average' spring weather is like. In the top 20, 9 entries are all from the last 20 years:
1990, 1992, 1997, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2007, 2009

Indeed. I was rather hoping for a colder than average Spring this year for a change, especially after the coldish Winter. However, we all know that came to an abrupt end mid February. Still, shouldn't complain really!

GRHinPorts · June 4, 2009

It has indeed been a very warm spring - the 11th warmest on record in fact. 2003 (9.73C) was just 0.03C warmer than 2009.
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt
When you look at which years are in the top 20, you very quickly realise why people have generally unrealistic expectations on what 'average' spring weather is like. In the top 20, 9 entries are all from the last 20 years:
1990, 1992, 1997, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2007, 2009

I agree it has been a warm Spring. In fact I like the term "homogenously mild" that you and TWS use because it describes the things perfectly since Feb 15 this year.

And yet by the standards of the past 12 years this has been a cold year if we take the first 5 months in their entirety. It just goes to show how cold things really were (relative to modern standards) at the start of the year.

**J10** · June 4, 2009

The results of the May CET are now in, and well done to GRHinPorts being the only player getting it spot on.

In the spring comp, a big well done to chionomaniac winning narrowly from Atlanticflamethrower with Don in 3rd.

Overall Don leads from Stargazer and Tonyh both tied in 2nd, with previous leader mountain shadow in 4th.

May_2009_CET_Published_Version.xls

May_2009_CET_Published_Version.pdf

2.6k · June 4, 2009

I'm surprised i haven't fallen lower than 5th overall!

Stargazer · June 4, 2009

Anyone got a time machine handy?

I guess that'll have to be my prediction for that day then (a bit cool for the time of year)

ukmoose · June 5, 2009

Thanks very much for all the superb work compiling the spreadsheet of results Jackone.

summer blizzard · June 8, 2009

58th of 85,could be worse.

DR Hosking · June 8, 2009

9th in Spring, 14th in May and 14th overall, my total random guesswork seems to be working!

2.6k · June 9, 2009

9th in Spring, 14th in May and 14th overall, my total random guesswork seems to be working!

Guesswork is as good as anything

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