Tropical Cyclone Kirrily

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 95S has rapidly become better organised today and has strengthened into a 35kt tropical cyclone. Improving outflow, warm sea temps and increased moisture have allowed deep convection to wrap around a defined LLC. 27S is located in the Arafura Sea, northeast of Darwin, and is forecasted to track northwestwards towards the equator, into the Sanda Sea. This is a very unusual track for a tropical cyclone. The northwest motion will keep the storm in warm waters, and low shear should allow 27S to slowly intensify. At the current time, convection is lacking a little directly over the centre, due to a dry air slot, but improving outflow should mix out the dry air and inflow take in the increasingly moist air. Though 27S is not forecast to make landfall, the many islands of Indonesia are likely to be affected by this storm.

[Cookie]

dose look a strange path, will all these islands hinder any development?

[Somerset Squall]

dose look a strange path, will all these islands hinder any development?

They certainly won't help, but they probably won't cause 27S to weaken. JTWC forecast a plateau in intensity of around 45kts, probably due to a little bit of land interaction.

[Somerset Squall]

27S has strengthened to 40kts today and has been given the name Kirrily. Kirrily is currently over the Aru islands, and this has caused convectional coverage to shrink this afternoon, however, the LLC has not been significantly disrupted and remains well defined, so once the cyclone moves to the west of the islands, further strengthening should occur. Kirrily is moving northwestwards along the northeastern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge to the southwest. Kirrily should gradually turn west as the ridge re-orientates itself. Further intensification is forecast due to low shear and warm waters. Kirrily may weaken in a few days time as shear is forecast to increase and the air will become much drier. JTWC expect a peak of 50kts before this occurs.

[M'Lady]

Thread title changed to refect Kirrily's new found status.

[Somerset Squall]

Cheers M'Lady

Kirrily has weakened over the last few hours, and intensity is reduced to 30kts. Land interaction with the Aru Islands has had more of a negative effect on the LLC than I previously thought. In addition, the convection is very limited now and the good banding features of earlier have dissipated. However, the forecast essentially hasn't changed all that much, JTWC are now less aggressive with the strengthening to take into account Kirrily's fragile current state, but she should intensify once she has cleared the Aru Islands. Eventually, dry air will begin to weaken Kirrily in a few days time, but not before some re-intensification occurs.

Track has shifted south a little as Kirrily is turning to the west a little sooner than expected. An eventual turn to the southwest is likely as the subtropical ridge will anchor itself to the southeast steering Kirrily along it's northwestern periphery. Kirrily should remain south of 5S. Nevertheless, this is still a highly unusual track, if Kirrily moved much further north it would be a very rare occurence indeed.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates a very interesting track!

[Cookie]

kirrily has weakened a lot down to tropical low

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, the Aru Islands really took it out of her. However, Kirrily is slowly recovering, and JTWC has increased the intensity to 35kts. I expect BOM to re-upgrade Kirrily to a tropical cyclone soon. Convection is slowly increasing over the LLC once more, and Kirrily has the opportunity to further intensify over the next couple days as shear remains low and waters warm. The steering ridge to the south will weakly steer Kirrily in a general west-southwesterly direction over the next day or so.

[Somerset Squall]

Kirrily has completely collapsed. Convection has decreased markedly and has become very disorganised. In addition, it is being decoupled from the weakening LLC by increasing shear. Intensity is reduced to 20kts and JTWC have issued their final warning. There is a small chance of re-development if the shear eases again but the remnant low would be more than likely too weak to respond to a more favourable environment.

[Cookie]

out with a wimper!